Another major Covid-19 variant is wreaking havoc on the world. Since the emergence of the highly transmitted Covid-19 strain Omicron, cases in the world have multiplied. India is witnessing an Omicron-triggered third wave where the daily cases have crossed the 1 lakh mark.

A new modelling study by IISc-ISI has predicted that India is currently in the third wave and the Covid-19 cases may peak in January-end or February, with daily cases touching 10 lakh.

Professor Siva Athreya, Professor Rajesh Sundaresan, and a team from the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) and the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI) in Bengaluru conducted the study, which was based on Omicron transmissibility rates.

Prediction of the third-wave peak in India

According to the study, the peak of the third coronavirus wave in India might occur in the last week of January, with effects beginning in the first week of February. However, it adds that different states will have different peaks.

Mid-January to mid-February is when the third wave may peak in different states. The Covid-19 curve for India could start flattening by March-beginning, it added.

Depending on the percentage of people vulnerable to the virus, the model predicts a peak in Delhi by mid-January or the third week, and a peak in Tamil Nadu in the last week of January or the first week of February.

How was the study conducted? What all things were considered while predicting the third wave in the country?

Past infection, vaccination, and declining immunity are all taken into account in the model, leaving either 30 percent, 60 percent, or 100 percent of the population vulnerable. Because of prior infection and immunisation, a small percentage of the population is vulnerable to the new variant.

Daily cases in India might reach approximately 3 lakh, 6 lakh, or 10 lakh during peak time, depending on the percentage of people vulnerable to the virus.

The researchers then used the variant’s path in South Africa. Depending on the percentage of people vulnerable to the virus, the peak would occur during the third and fourth weeks of January. Similarly, depending on the number of people susceptible to the virus, the peak would decline from the beginning of March to the end of March.

Similar study by IIT-Kanpur

According to a study conducted by researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Kanpur, the third wave of the Covid-19 outbreak in India is expected to peak by February 3.

Read Also: Delhi likely to see 17,000 cases, positivity rate to inch above 17%, says state health minister

Since December 31, India has seen a significant increase in coronavirus infections, with daily cases soaring by five times and the active caseload spiking by three times in the last seven days. According to data from the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, cases of the Omicron variant have increased since December 31.

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Omicron, a new variant of coronavirus that has been designated variant B.1.1.529 by the World Health Organization. Currently, the study of several aspects of Omicron in South Africa and around the world, where the cases have been found is going on.

Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association, told the news agency AFP that the new variant has been causing unfamiliar symptoms in patients.

What are the symptoms of the new variant of COVID-19, Omicron?

According to Dr Coetzee, the symptoms of Omicron are:

Scratchy throat

Dry Cough

Mild muscle aches

Extreme Tiredness

High Fever

According to WHO, the preliminary evidence suggests there may be an increased risk of reinfection with Omicron which means that those who got infected with coronavirus, can get reinfected more easily with Omicron as compared to other variants of concern. However, the information is limited about this.

It was also mentioned that it is not clear yet that Omicron is more transmissible compared to other variants, including Delta. And, it is also not clear yet, that whether Omicron causes more severe disease compared to infections with other variants, including Delta.

The current study suggests that there are increasing rates of hospitalization in South Africa, but this may be due to increasing overall numbers of people becoming infected, rather than a result of a specific infection with Omicron.

Read Also: Amid new Covid variant Omicron, check out the new guidelines issued by THESE states

Meanwhile, due to the fear of the new variant of coronavirus, India has issued new guidelines for international arrivals in the country. In the guideline, it is mentioned that all. people who are coming from countries that are at high risk need to take a coronavirus test. These guidelines will be enforced from December 1, 2021.

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