{"id":78632,"date":"2020-03-02T11:22:48","date_gmt":"2020-03-02T05:52:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/apnlive.com\/?p=78632"},"modified":"2020-09-05T11:05:14","modified_gmt":"2020-09-05T05:35:14","slug":"apps-may-soon-be-able-to-predict-your-life-expectancy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/apnlive.com\/gadgets\/apps-may-soon-be-able-to-predict-your-life-expectancy\/","title":{"rendered":"Don’t die wondering: Apps may soon be able to predict your life expectancy"},"content":{"rendered":"
James Jin Kang, Edith Cowan University<\/em> and Paul Haskell-Dowland, Edith Cowan University<\/em><\/p>\n When will I die?<\/em><\/p>\n This question has endured across cultures and civilisations. It has given rise to a plethora of religions and spiritual paths over thousands of years, and more recently, some highly amusing apps.<\/p>\n But this question now prompts a different response, as technology slowly brings us closer to accurately predicting the answer.<\/p>\n Predicting the lifespan of people, or their \u201cPersonal Life Expectancy\u201d (PLE) would greatly alter our lives.<\/p>\n On one hand, it may have benefits for policy making, and help optimise an individual\u2019s health, or the services they receive. But the potential misuse of this information by the government or private sector poses major risks to our rights and privacy.<\/p>\n Although generating an accurate life expectancy is currently difficult, due to the complexity of factors underpinning lifespan, emerging technologies could make this a reality in the future.<\/p>\n Predicting life expectancy is not a new concept. Experts do this at a population level by classifying people into groups, often based on region or ethnicity.<\/p>\n Also, tools such as deep learning and artificial intelligence can be used to consider complex variables, such as biomedical data, to predict someone\u2019s biological age.<\/p>\n Biological age refers to how \u201cold\u201d their body is, rather than when they were born. A 30-year-old who smokes heavily may have a biological age closer to 40.<\/p>\n Calculating a life expectancy reliably would require a sophisticated system that considers a breadth of environmental, geographic, genetic and lifestyle factors \u2013 all of which have influence.<\/p>\n With machine learning and artificial intelligence, it\u2019s becoming feasible to analyse larger quantities of data. The use of deep learning and cognitive computing, such as with IBM Watson, helps doctors make more accurate diagnoses than using human judgement alone.<\/p>\n This, coupled with predictive analytics and increasing computational power, means we may soon have systems, or even apps, that can calculate life expectancy.<\/p>\n Much like existing tools that predict cancer survival rates, in the coming years we may see apps attempting to analyse data to predict life expectancy.<\/p>\n However, they will not be able to provide a \u201cdeath date\u201d, or even a year of death.<\/p>\n Human behaviour and activities are so unpredictable, it\u2019s almost impossible to measure, classify and predict lifespan. A personal life expectancy, even a carefully calculated one, would only provide a \u201cnatural life expectancy\u201d based on generic data optimised with personal data.<\/p>\n The key to accuracy would be the quality and quantity of data available. Much of this would be taken directly from the user, including gender, age, weight, height and ethnicity.<\/p>\n Access to real-time sensor data through fitness trackers and smart watches could also monitor activity levels, heart rate and blood pressure. This could then be coupled with lifestyle information such as occupation, socioeconomic status, exercise, diet and family medical history
\n<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\nHow do you calculate life expectancy?<\/h4>\n
There\u2019s an app for that<\/h4>\n
\n<\/strong><\/em>All of the above could be used to classify an individual into a generic group to calculate life expectancy. This result would then be refined over time through the analysis of personal data, updating a user\u2019s life expectancy and letting them monitor it.<\/p>\n