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PM Modi’s promise of doubling farmers’ income needs a reality check

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8 years ago

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PM Modi’s promise of doubling farmers’ income needs a reality check

Agriculture is in deep crisis, deepened further in the last three due to restrictions on livestock trade.

Yesterday (Wednesday, June 20) Prime Minister Narendra Modi interacted with select group of farmers through video-conferencing over the Namo App to hear stories of how some of them had increased incomes and were leading happy lives. Modi then repeated his promise of doubling farmers’ income by 2022.

Just about a week earlier, a Down To Earth (DTE) report titled “How India lost its historic agriculture recovery growth phase in just four years” should bring this narrative down to proverbial earth.

Citing Government data, it noted a disturbing trend. In financial year 2017-18, agriculture would be growing at 2.1 per cent compared to 4.9 per cent in the previous year – and this, when India had a normal monsoon and previous two years of below normal monsoon had provided a low baseline: after a drought, agriculture growth is higher due to low baseline level.

The DTE said a crucial fact that has been missed by Modi government is its own series of rigorous reports on agriculture called “The Committee on Doubling Farmers’ Income” led by Ashok Dalwai.

The first report of the Dalwai committee using inputs and research of over 100 experts has pointed out that India’s agriculture is currently in a deep crisis.

This analysis is supported by reports that farmers’ distress, and consequently, protests are growing all over the country. If that is unpalatable to Modi government, Modi government’s Dalwai committee report gives more inconvenient facts.

According to DTE, it says the country’s agriculture sector witnessed its highest ever growth phaseduring 2004-14: the period of Congress-led UPA-I and UPA-II governments. The report calls it the sector’s “recovery phase”; a term it defines as historic.“The agricultural sector grew at the growth of around 4 per cent per year during 2004-05 to 2014-15 and the growth was quite impressive as compared to 2.6 per cent per annum during the previous decade (1995-96 to 2004-05),” says the report.

More so, the report attributes this impressive agricultural growth more to government interventions than to other situational favourable conditions, said the DTE. “The most important factor for improved performance of agriculture, post 2004-05 period, has been the price received by the farmers caused by a number of underlying factors: hike given to MSP, increase in foodgrain procurement, increase in global agricultural prices and strong domestic demand for food,” it finds.

All recent farmers’ protests amid bumper harvests are for increasing the government’s minimum support price (MSP) and to force the NDA government to keep its electoral promise of a MSP plus 50 per cent extra to farmers.

Significantly – and alarmingly – it said that in the last three years, less than 10 per cent farmers could sell their produces in MSP, which is growing at pace seen during the 2004-14 period. Also, farmers across the country sold their bumper harvests at 30-50 per cent less than the MSP for all their produces during 2015-17.

The report just adds on to this worry of Modi. It sees the recent farmers’ protests as an indication of deepening crisis in agriculture sector post the “recovery phase”.

“At the basic level, agriculture when defined as an enterprise comprises two segments–production and post-production. The success of production as of now amounts to half success, and is therefore, not sustainable.”

“Recent agitations of farmers (June-July 2017) in certain parts of the country demanding higher prices on their produce following record output or scenes of farmers dumping tractor loads of tomatoes and onions onto the roads or emptying canisters of milk into drains exemplify neglect of other half segment of agriculture.”

Modi government’s performance in agriculture has been lacklustre, observes DTE. In 2015-16, agriculture contributed 17.4 per cent to India’s GDP, which was 18.3 per cent in 2013-14, the year before he came to power. In 2014-15, agriculture reported negative growth at -0.2 per cent. Despite this low base, next year it reported 1.2 per cent growth. And in 2016-17, it was estimated to be 4.1 per cent. At an average, the growth in the last four years is around 2 per cent.

Modi government’s cow preoccupation to push Hindutva agenda worsened this with cattle trade ban.

“The last three years are also known for restrictions on livestock trade. While government fiddled with this sector, the agrarian crisis deepened,” said the DTE.

It said the Dalwai Committee Report points out that the biggest contributor to the agricultural growth in 2004-14 was livestock sector, which has never reported a negative growth in the last 35 years.

“Thus, the livestock sector is likely to emerge as engine of growth of agricultural sector and can be relied upon for risk mitigation and minimising the losses to the farmers in case of even worst outcomes from others sub-sectors. Previous studies have unanimously reported that livestock as the best insurance against agrarian distress as the sector is the source of sustained income and generates income more frequently than the crop sector,” the report says.

It is known by this time that across north India, due to the restrictions and raids from cow protection groups, livestock trade and prices have crashed, the DTE said.

The DTE then delves into the question of whether a last-ditch attempt by Modi government to make its last full budget all about rural and agriculture sectors turn around the fate of farmers and rural Indians, or at least result in rich electoral harvest for Modi.

It answers in the negative, saying that the current agrarian crisis is too deep-rooted to witness an instant recovery through a farmer-friendly budget.

Looking into the income of a farmer in India, it says even during the “recovery phase”, a member of an agricultural household earned around Rs 214/month but his/her expenditure was about Rs 207, leaving a disposable income of just Rs 7/month.

Since 2015, India has witnessed two major droughts, some 600 incidents of crop losses due to unseasonal rains and other related incidents, and finally in two years of bumper harvests prices for their produces crashed majorly. It means, a farmer neither has any base capital to invest, nor has he the capacity to take the risk of going back to agriculture. This has added to the crisis that manifests in extreme resentments.

For the first time in recent history, relatively rich farmers were out on the streets protesting for better price for their produce, noted the DTE.

The Dalwai committee report shows that the government’s move to import foodgrains to curb inflation has majorly distorted the market against the domestic farmers. India’s export of agricultural produces has dipped. It recorded more than five times growth during 2004-2014: from Rs 50,000 crore to Rs 260,000 crore. In a year it dipped to Rs 210,000 crore in 2015-16, or a market potential loss of Rs 50,000 crore.

On the other hand, agricultural import has reported constant growth. It was Rs 30,000 crore in 2004-5, which increased to Rs 90,000 crore in 2013-14, the last year of the UPA-II government. In 2015-16, it reached to Rs 150,000 crore.

Close to 22 per cent of farmers subsist below the poverty line. The dip in farmers’ income, while giving a call for doubling income, shouldn’t be just another grand plan for a “new India”, because agricultural growth critically decides poverty reduction.

According to historic data, agricultural growth has much more impact on poverty reduction than any other activity like industrial growth. The DTE said it is time government got its focus back into the factors that once ensured this recovery phase.

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Thick smog engulfs Delhi, flights and trains delayed as air quality slips to very poor

Delhi remained under a thick smog cover as air quality dipped into the very poor category, causing delays in flights and train services due to low visibility.

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December 20, 2025

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A dense blanket of smog covered Delhi on Saturday morning, pushing air quality into the ‘very poor’ category and disrupting flight and train operations across the national capital and adjoining areas. Reduced visibility due to smog led to delays in air and rail traffic, while authorities warned that pollution levels could worsen further in the coming days.

The Air Quality Index (AQI) in Delhi was recorded at 380, placing it in the ‘very poor’ bracket. Visuals from Bhairav Marg near Pragati Maidan showed motorists using headlights during early hours, as visibility remained low. At around 7 am, the AQI at this location stood at 433.

Nearly half of Delhi’s air quality monitoring stations reported ‘severe’ pollution levels. Anand Vihar recorded an AQI of 428 with PM2.5 as the dominant pollutant, while Jahangirpuri reported an AQI of 425.

Transport services hit by low visibility

Flight operations at Delhi airport were impacted due to low visibility conditions. The airport issued an advisory asking passengers to check with their respective airlines for updated flight information, as low visibility procedures were in place. Runway visibility was reported to be between 800 and 1,200 metres.

Live flight tracking data showed multiple flights running behind schedule. One airline also warned passengers about possible disruptions at several airports in northern and eastern India, including Delhi, due to dense fog conditions. Travellers were advised to verify flight status before heading to the airport, with options offered on select flights to reschedule or seek refunds without additional charges.

Rail services were also affected, with more than 30 trains running late by an average of three to four hours. Some long-distance trains reported delays of over six to eight hours, causing inconvenience to passengers travelling to and from the capital.

Air quality likely to worsen

The weather department had earlier forecast dense to very dense fog at isolated places over Delhi and several parts of north and central India. According to the Air Quality Early Warning System for Delhi, pollution levels are expected to remain in the ‘very poor’ category on Saturday and may slip into the ‘severe’ category on Sunday and Monday. In view of the deteriorating conditions, an ‘orange’ alert has been issued for Saturday.

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PM Modi inaugurates India’s first nature-themed airport terminal in Assam

Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurates the new nature-themed terminal at Guwahati airport, the largest in Northeast India, built around bamboo, orchids and regional heritage.

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6 hours ago

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December 20, 2025

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PM modi in Assam

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to inaugurate the new terminal building of Lokapriya Gopinath Bordoloi International (LGBI) Airport in Guwahati today, marking a major milestone for aviation infrastructure in the Northeast. Built at an estimated cost of around Rs 4,000 crore, the facility is being projected as the largest airport terminal in the region and a key boost to connectivity, tourism and economic activity in Assam.

The Prime Minister is scheduled to arrive in Guwahati around 3 pm as part of his two-day visit to the state.

Northeast’s largest airport terminal takes shape in Guwahati

The newly constructed terminal is nearly seven times larger than the existing one and has been designed to cater to the region’s rapidly growing air traffic. Once fully operational, it is expected to handle up to 13.1 million passengers annually by 2032.

Officials said the terminal is planned as a regional connectivity hub, with a focus on strengthening air links between India and Southeast Asia. The airport will be capable of handling up to 34 air traffic movements per hour, the highest capacity among airports in the Northeast. The facility will also be equipped with one of the most advanced Instrument Landing Systems to support safer and more efficient operations.

Nature-inspired design rooted in Assam’s identity

What sets the Guwahati terminal apart is its distinctive nature-themed architecture. Conceptualised under the theme “Bamboo Orchids”, it is being described as India’s first airport terminal inspired entirely by natural and cultural elements.

The interiors draw from the landscapes of Northeast India, with design elements reflecting indigenous orchids, locally known as Kopou Phool, and the flow of the Brahmaputra river. The terminal incorporates more than 2,000 species of plants, includes a dedicated zone inspired by Kaziranga National Park, and features artefacts representing Majuli Island.

A key architectural highlight is the expansive bamboo vault, created using around 140 metric tonnes of locally sourced bamboo. The space has been envisioned as a multifunctional cultural centre aimed at encouraging community interaction and showcasing the region’s heritage. Design elements such as japi motifs, the iconic rhino symbol and 57 orchid-inspired columns further reinforce the cultural narrative.

Arriving passengers will also experience a unique “Sky Forest”, featuring nearly one lakh plants of indigenous species, designed to create an immersive forest-like ambience within the terminal.

Focus on digital integration and passenger convenience

Spread over nearly 1.4 lakh square metres, the integrated new terminal has been designed to handle around 1.3 crore passengers annually. It is supported by significant upgrades to the runway, airfield systems, aprons and taxiways.

The terminal places strong emphasis on digital integration, with 14 entry points, including four DigiYatra gates, aimed at easing passenger movement. Facilities such as full-body scanners for non-intrusive security checks, automated baggage handling systems, fast-track immigration and AI-driven airport operations have been incorporated to ensure smoother travel experiences.

Other engagements during PM Modi’s Assam visit

During his two-day stay, the Prime Minister will also lay foundation stones for multiple development projects and address public gatherings. He is scheduled to visit the Swahid Smarak Kshetra to pay tribute to the martyrs of the historic Assam Movement.

Later in the day, PM Modi will perform the bhoomipujan for a new brownfield Ammonia-Urea Fertiliser Project at Namrup in Dibrugarh district, within the existing premises of the Brahmaputra Valley Fertiliser Corporation Limited.

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Assam train accident: Eight elephants killed after Rajdhani Express derailment in Hojai

Eight elephants were killed after the Rajdhani Express collided with a herd in Assam’s Hojai district, causing multiple coaches to derail and disrupting train services.

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7 hours ago

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December 20, 2025

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assam train accident

At least eight elephants were killed and a calf was injured after a herd collided with the Sairang–New Delhi Rajdhani Express in Assam’s Hojai district, leading to the derailment of the locomotive and five coaches early Saturday. Railway officials confirmed that no passengers were injured in the incident.

Forest department officials said the collision occurred when the New Delhi-bound Rajdhani Express struck a herd of elephants on the tracks. The impact caused multiple coaches to derail, disrupting rail traffic on the busy route connecting the Northeast with the national capital.

Train services hit, passengers shifted to other coaches

Following the derailment, rail movement towards Upper Assam and other parts of the Northeast was affected due to damaged coaches and elephant remains scattered on the tracks. Accident relief trains and senior railway officials rushed to the site to restore services.

Passengers travelling in the affected coaches were temporarily accommodated in vacant berths in other coaches of the same train. Officials said that once the train reaches Guwahati, additional coaches will be attached to ensure all passengers can continue their journey.

Collision occurred outside designated elephant corridor

According to officials, the accident took place at a location that is not marked as a designated elephant corridor. The loco pilot reportedly applied emergency brakes after spotting the herd on the tracks, but the elephants ran into the train, resulting in the collision and derailment.

Forest authorities confirmed that eight elephants died on the spot, while one injured calf was rescued. Local residents said the herd consisted of around eight elephants at the time of the accident.

Elephant deaths in train accidents remain a concern

The incident comes amid continued concerns over wildlife deaths on railway tracks. Data shared by the Environment Ministry in Parliament earlier showed that at least 79 elephants have died in train collisions across India over the past five years, based on reports from states and Union Territories.

The ministry has said that several preventive steps are being taken in coordination with the Railways, including speed restrictions in elephant habitats, use of sensor-based detection systems, and construction of underpasses, ramps and fencing at vulnerable locations. Guidelines and capacity-building programmes have also been introduced to reduce human-animal conflict along railway lines.

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