An Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 jet, which crashed near Aqtau in Kazakhstan on Christmas Day, has raised questions about a possible accidental strike by a Russian missile. The flight was en route from Baku to Grozny, Russia, when it went down, killing 38 of the 67 people on board. Among the survivors were two young girls, aged 11 and 16.

Investigation points to missile damage

Aviation and military experts have suggested that the crash may have been caused by a surface-to-air missile or anti-aircraft fire. Reports from media outlets such as the Wall Street Journal and Euronews highlighted shrapnel-like damage to the plane’s fuselage and tail section, consistent with missile strikes.

Footage shared online showed holes resembling shrapnel marks, adding weight to this theory. Matt Borie, Chief Intelligence Officer at Osprey Flight Solutions, told the Journal that the wreckage and security conditions in the region suggest the aircraft may have been hit by anti-aircraft fire.

The crash occurred in an area where Ukrainian drone activity had been reported. Grozny, the destination city, is heavily guarded by Russian anti-aircraft systems due to the ongoing conflict with Ukraine.

Survivors report explosions

Passengers seated in the tail section of the plane, where all survivors were located, reported hearing loud explosions shortly after the plane’s request to land at Grozny airport was denied. Visuals captured the aircraft struggling to maintain altitude before crashing into a field about three kilometers from Aqtau airport.

Azerbaijan Airlines initially attributed the crash to a bird strike but later withdrew this claim. The plane’s black box has been recovered, and investigators will examine flight data and cockpit recordings for further insights.

Potential precedent

If a Russian missile is confirmed as the cause, this would mark the second time a commercial plane has been shot down in the region. In 2014, Malaysian Airlines flight MH-17 was downed by a Russian-made missile over eastern Ukraine, killing all on board.

Official responses

Kazakh officials, including Senate Speaker Maulen Ashimbayev, have urged patience until the investigation concludes, stressing that no party has an interest in concealing information. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov condemned premature speculation.

National mourning in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev declared a national day of mourning and canceled a planned visit to Russia. In a statement, Aliyev expressed condolences to the victims’ families and called for a thorough investigation.

As the investigation continues, questions remain about the safety of civilian aircraft in a region embroiled in conflict.