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Book Ringside Seats For May 15 Post Poll Poker In Bengaluru

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Book Ringside Seats For May 15 Post Poll Poker In Bengaluru

~By Saeed Naqvi

On May 15, when the Karnataka election results are announced, and the Congress, BJP and Deve Gowda’s JDS find themselves in an almighty scrum bargaining for power, a certain mysterious lady will be watching the proceedings from her suite in the country’s most luxurious, seven star Leela hotel on Bengaluru’s old airport road.

The hijab clad, 45 year old, Nowhera Shaik, President of the All India Mahila (Women’s) Empowerment Party (MEP) is fielding candidates in all the 224 assembly seats. It is a mistake to regard MEP as a woman only party. “A woman has a brother, father, son”, she says. Moreover, there is no taboo on men seeking MEP tickets.

Her hijab is a far cry from a docile acceptance of male oppression. It is an assertion of feminine independence. She is CEO of Hyderabad based Heera Group of companies, dealing with a wide range of commodities across the globe – building material, gold and diamond. The last mentioned, happens to be something of an obsession with her. Heera, name of her company, means diamond. Her election symbol is Diamond. Who knows her name Nowhera may be a contortion of Nav Heera, which means “novel diamond”.

In the Sherlock Holmes classic, mystery deepens when the dog “does not” bark. In Ms. Shaik’s case the deathly silence of politicians and the media at the high voltage election debut is as intriguing.

Book Ringside Seats For May 15 Post Poll Poker In Bengaluru

There are all sorts of ironies involved. The latest congress policy towards Muslims is based on the appraisal that the BJP’s shrill allegation, that the party appeases Muslims, has begun to affect the majority community. The Hindu increasingly sees the Congress as a “Muslim Party”. How should a party which is greedy for Hindu as well as Muslim votes, cope with the predicament.

It was to meet this situation that the new “cloak and dagger” policy towards Muslims was enunciated. The party will distance itself from Muslims to prevent a hemorrhage of Hindu votes. But by hint and gesture the Muslim voter will be persuaded that this “distancing” is only a tactic in the Muslim interest. The Muslim must not leap into the Congress lap in full public view, but, with expert slyness, sneak towards the Congress polling agent.

The game acquires a touch of situation comedy when an audacious, hijab wearing lady, with wealth beyond measure, a credible image of a philanthropist, jumps into the electoral fray. The Congress cannot throw up its hands and scream, “Help, help, she is nibbling away at Muslim pockets in a close election where even a few hundred votes matter.”

Nor can the BJP be ecstatic: “Welcome dear Begum Sahiba; go, damage the Congress.”

Unobtrusively, she just may end up marginally harming the Congress. If each one of her 224 candidates is pillowed with cash, the law of averages may return two, three or five winners. This may give her a hand to play in post poll poker. Her ambitions for 2019 leave one gasping.

If the Congress loses the Karnataka election, it will be difficult for the party to escape the label the opposition is in gleeful readiness to paste on the Congress forehead: P2, a party confined to Punjab and Pondicherry.

While nobody is conceding outright victory to the Congress, punters are willing to give it the largest single party status and therefore hope for coming state elections.

A representative group of eight senior journalists and political activists (including two having deep links with Communists and RSS) pondered over the election scene in my Bengaluru drawing room. There was no great difference of opinion on the way the cookie was expected to crumble on May 15. Congress, BJP and Deve Gowda led (JDS) Janata Dal Secular were expected to poll 95 to 100, 85 to 95 and 35 to 40 seats respectively. A hung house will enable the JDS to play a leading role in the post poll poker.

Let us pick up the narrative in 2010 when Siddaramaiah, then in the opposition, chastised the infamous Reddy Brothers (more popularly known in Karnataka as the Bellary mining mafia) on the floor of the state assembly.

The Reddy’s promptly dared him to repeat his charges in Bellary where, they threatened, he “would be finished”. Siddaramaiah took up the challenge. He undertook a 200 mile padyatra to Bellary. The voter, desperately searching for something he can respect, spotted a touch of heroism in “Siddaramaiah”.

There are now three principal caste groups (hundreds of smaller ones) in the contest:

Siddaramaiah with his diligently consolidated Kuruba caste; Deve Gowda, something of a Vokkaliga stalwart and B.S. Yedurappa the tallest Lingayat who had almost been ruled out by the BJP because of a jail term for massive corruption. His powerful caste Lingayat, has trumped all negative considerations.

Siddaramaiah is not a classical Congressman. Rather, his background should be a cause for concern for the Congress: there is in his DNA a trace of Lohia Socialist. This is what kept him in the JDS for 35 years. But his parting with Deve Gowda was so bitter that theirs is now a blood feud. Deve Gowda would rather jump in front of a train than allow Siddaramaiah a second term in Bengaluru.

Yedurappa poses the Lingayat challenge. This has propelled Siddaramaiah towards an audacious gamble. An old demand by a section of Lingayats seeking a status outside the Hindu structure has been dusted up by him. Yes, he says, Lingayats will be outside the Hindu fold. This is far reaching, tearing into Veer Shaivaite  Lingayat divide.

Trust a Lohiaite to have played this hand. There are echoes of V.P. Singh’s implementation of the Mandal Commission report. V.P. Singh himself was not a beneficiary of his machinations. But the post Mandal tumult brought to the fore Mayawati, Mulayam Singh, Lalu Prasad, Rath yatra to Ayodhya and so much mayhem. Let’s see how Siddaramaiah’s gamble plays itself out.

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Mojtaba Khamenei named Iran’s new supreme leader after death of Ali Khamenei

Iran’s Assembly of Experts has selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the country’s new supreme leader following the death of Ali Khamenei amid escalating regional conflict.

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Mojtaba Khamenei has been appointed the new Supreme Leader of Iran, replacing his father Ali Khamenei, according to state media reports.

The decision was taken by the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member council responsible for selecting the country’s supreme leader. The body said it had chosen Mojtaba Khamenei through a decisive vote, naming him the third leader of the Islamic Republic.

Mojtaba Khamenei, a mid-ranking cleric with strong connections within Iran’s security establishment, had long been seen as a potential successor to his father. His influence within the powerful Revolutionary Guards and networks associated with his father’s office had made him a prominent figure in Iran’s political structure.

His appointment comes amid a sharp escalation in tensions in the region. Ali Khamenei was reportedly killed in strikes carried out during the ongoing conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel. The situation has led to rising hostilities and military exchanges in recent days.

The role of supreme leader in Iran carries ultimate authority over key state institutions, including the military, judiciary and major political decisions.

The development may further strain relations between Tehran and Washington. Donald Trump recently said the United States should have a say in who leads Iran, a remark likely to draw criticism from Iranian authorities.

Meanwhile, fighting linked to the conflict has continued across the region. Strikes targeting infrastructure in Tehran have caused fires at fuel facilities, sending thick smoke into the sky and raising environmental concerns.

Iranian officials have condemned the attacks as dangerous escalation, while Israeli authorities have defended the strikes, saying the targeted facilities were connected to Iran’s military operations.

As the conflict continues, Iran’s new leadership now faces the challenge of navigating both internal political pressures and rising regional tensions.

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India says it never depended on permission to import Russian oil

India says it continues to import Russian oil based on competitive pricing and national interest, while energy supplies remain stable despite global tensions.

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India on Saturday reiterated that it has never relied on permission from any country to purchase Russian oil, even as the United States recently issued a temporary waiver allowing certain shipments to continue.

The Centre said India’s energy strategy remains focused on securing crude oil at the most competitive prices while maintaining stable supplies despite rising tensions in global shipping routes.

India continues Russian oil imports

According to the government, India continues to import Russian crude and has done so consistently throughout the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Officials said Russia remains India’s largest crude oil supplier, with imports rising significantly after 2022 due to discounted prices and the demand from domestic refineries.

“India has never depended on permission from any country to buy Russian oil,” the Centre said in a statement, adding that purchases are based on affordability and national interest.

Energy supplies remain secure

The government said India’s energy supply remains stable despite disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz route amid tensions linked to the Iran-US-Israel conflict.

To strengthen energy security, India has expanded its crude oil sourcing network from 27 countries to 40 countries, creating multiple supply options.

The Centre also said the country currently holds more than 250 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products across its reserves and supply chain. This stockpile provides a buffer equivalent to around seven to eight weeks of consumption.

India’s refining capacity stands at 258 million metric tonnes per annum, which the government said exceeds current domestic demand.

US waiver and global oil market volatility

The United States on Thursday temporarily eased sanctions on Russia to allow oil already loaded on vessels at sea to be sold to India.

Officials in New Delhi said describing the waiver as enabling such purchases overlooks the fact that the trade has continued for years.

“India is a net exporter of refined products to the world — a position that reinforces, not undermines, its energy security,” the Centre said.

Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East have affected global oil markets. Military actions involving the United States and Israel against Iran, along with retaliatory strikes by Tehran across the Gulf region, have disrupted shipping routes and energy flows.

Global oil prices surged 8.5 per cent on Friday and had climbed nearly 30 per cent over the previous week, following remarks by US President Donald Trump that the conflict would end only with Iran’s “unconditional surrender”.

Earlier in February, Washington removed a 25 per cent tariff on Indian exports under an interim trade agreement. The US administration said the decision followed a commitment by India to halt Russian oil purchases. However, no such commitment appears in the joint statement issued at the time, and the Indian government has not confirmed or denied the claim.

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Trump’s handling of India ties a major mistake, says former Australia PM Tony Abbott

Former Australian prime minister Tony Abbott says Donald Trump’s tariffs and engagement with Pakistan leadership unnecessarily strained relations with India.

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Former Australian prime minister Tony Abbott has said that one of the biggest mistakes made by US President Donald Trump so far has been the way he handled relations with India.

Speaking in an interview with media, Abbott said he does not fully support Trump’s foreign policy approach and highlighted several steps that, in his view, unnecessarily strained ties with New Delhi.

Abbott said these included the imposition of punitive tariffs on Indian goods, claims by Trump that he had mediated tensions between India and Pakistan, and the hosting of Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir at the White House.

According to Abbott, these actions “gratuitously alienated” India, particularly given New Delhi’s longstanding concerns about terrorism originating from Pakistan.

Tariff dispute and trade deal

Tensions between the United States and India had earlier escalated after Washington imposed 25 per cent reciprocal tariffs on several Indian products. An additional 25 per cent levy was also linked to India’s continued purchases of Russian oil.

However, a trade agreement announced by Trump in February signalled a partial easing of those tensions. Under the arrangement, the US reduced tariffs on several Indian goods.

Trump said the decision followed a commitment from Prime Minister Narendra Modi to halt purchases of oil from Russia while the war in Ukraine continued.

The agreement helped ease months of friction between the two countries over energy purchases, which Washington had argued were helping fund the ongoing conflict.

Trump has also repeatedly referred to his close personal ties with Modi, describing the Indian leader as one of his greatest friends.

Abbott comments on Middle East conflict

Abbott also spoke about the uncertainty surrounding the ongoing conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States.

He said it was impossible to predict whether the situation would lead to a regime change in Tehran, noting that the current leadership still enjoys support among sections of the Iranian population.

At the same time, Abbott suggested that the weakening of Iran’s nuclear capabilities could significantly limit the country’s ability to project aggression in the future.

He also said the intensity of the conflict could gradually decline.

According to Abbott, Iranian attacks had already reduced compared to earlier phases of the conflict, while Israeli and American strikes had intensified and largely focused on regime facilities rather than civilian infrastructure.

Fresh attacks reported

In the hours following his remarks, Iran launched new missiles and drones targeting Israel and several Gulf countries hosting US military bases.

Explosions were reported inside Israel as air defence systems intercepted incoming projectiles.

Countries including the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia also reported attacks.

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