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Omicron triggered third wave in India may peak by January-end, daily cases touching 10 lakh: Study

A new modelling study by IISc-ISI has predicted that India is currently in the third wave and the Covid-19 cases may peak in January-end or February, with daily cases touching 10 lakh.

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Covid-19 cases in India

Another major Covid-19 variant is wreaking havoc on the world. Since the emergence of the highly transmitted Covid-19 strain Omicron, cases in the world have multiplied. India is witnessing an Omicron-triggered third wave where the daily cases have crossed the 1 lakh mark.

A new modelling study by IISc-ISI has predicted that India is currently in the third wave and the Covid-19 cases may peak in January-end or February, with daily cases touching 10 lakh.

Professor Siva Athreya, Professor Rajesh Sundaresan, and a team from the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) and the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI) in Bengaluru conducted the study, which was based on Omicron transmissibility rates.

Prediction of the third-wave peak in India

According to the study, the peak of the third coronavirus wave in India might occur in the last week of January, with effects beginning in the first week of February. However, it adds that different states will have different peaks.

Mid-January to mid-February is when the third wave may peak in different states. The Covid-19 curve for India could start flattening by March-beginning, it added.

Depending on the percentage of people vulnerable to the virus, the model predicts a peak in Delhi by mid-January or the third week, and a peak in Tamil Nadu in the last week of January or the first week of February.

How was the study conducted? What all things were considered while predicting the third wave in the country?

Past infection, vaccination, and declining immunity are all taken into account in the model, leaving either 30 percent, 60 percent, or 100 percent of the population vulnerable. Because of prior infection and immunisation, a small percentage of the population is vulnerable to the new variant.

Daily cases in India might reach approximately 3 lakh, 6 lakh, or 10 lakh during peak time, depending on the percentage of people vulnerable to the virus.

The researchers then used the variant’s path in South Africa. Depending on the percentage of people vulnerable to the virus, the peak would occur during the third and fourth weeks of January. Similarly, depending on the number of people susceptible to the virus, the peak would decline from the beginning of March to the end of March.

Similar study by IIT-Kanpur

According to a study conducted by researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Kanpur, the third wave of the Covid-19 outbreak in India is expected to peak by February 3.

Read Also: Delhi likely to see 17,000 cases, positivity rate to inch above 17%, says state health minister

Since December 31, India has seen a significant increase in coronavirus infections, with daily cases soaring by five times and the active caseload spiking by three times in the last seven days. According to data from the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, cases of the Omicron variant have increased since December 31.

India News

Lok Sabha clears bill to levy cess on pan masala and similar goods for health, security funding

The Lok Sabha has passed a bill to impose a cess on pan masala manufacturing units, aiming to create a dedicated revenue source for public health and national security initiatives.

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Nirmala Sitharaman

The Lok Sabha has approved the Health Security se National Security Cess Bill, 2025, paving the way for a new cess on pan masala manufacturing units. The legislation aims to generate dedicated funds for strengthening national security and improving public health, both areas identified as critical national priorities.

Bill aims to create predictable funding stream

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, responding to the debate before the bill was passed by voice vote, said that the cess will be shared with states because public health falls under the state list.

The new cess will be applied over and above the GST, based on production capacity and machinery used in units manufacturing pan masala and similar goods. The minister clarified that this cess will not affect GST revenue, and that pan masala already attracts the maximum GST slab of 40 per cent.

According to the bill text, the objective is to build a “dedicated and predictable resource stream” to support expenditure related to health and national security.

Sitharaman also mentioned that cess collection as a percentage of gross total revenue currently stands at 6.1 per cent, lower than the 7 per cent average between 2010 and 2014.

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India News

Simone Tata passes away at 95: A look at the visionary who shaped Lakme and modern retail

Simone Tata, the pioneering business leader who built Lakme and helped shape India’s modern retail sector, passed away at 95. Here’s a look at her legacy.

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simone tata

Ratan Tata’s stepmother and celebrated business leader Simone Tata passed away on December 5, 2025, at the age of 95. Known for her pioneering role in building Lakme and transforming India’s retail landscape, she leaves behind a remarkable legacy that redefined Indian consumer culture.

A legacy that shaped Indian business

Simone Tata, born in Geneva in 1930, first came to India at the age of 23. Two years later, in 1955, she married Naval H. Tata and gradually became an integral part of the Tata family’s business vision. Her journey with the Tata Group began in the 1960s, when she was appointed to Lakme—then under Tata Oil Mills.

Under her leadership, Lakme quickly grew into one of India’s most trusted cosmetic brands. She rose to the position of managing director and later chairperson, introducing global formulations and modernising beauty products for the Indian market. Lakme’s rise was also rooted in a strong national vision—launched on former Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru’s suggestion to reduce foreign exchange spent on imported makeup.

Transforming retail through Trent and Westside

After Lakme was sold to Hindustan Lever Limited in 1966, Simone moved to Trent, where she helped build one of India’s earliest modern retail chains. This later gave birth to Westside, a brand that has become synonymous with contemporary Indian shopping culture.

She also played a key role in philanthropic initiatives, guiding organisations such as the Sir Ratan Tata Institute and supporting cultural and children-focused foundations.

Family, personal life and final farewell

Simone Tata is survived by her son Noel, daughter-in-law Aloo Mistry, and grandchildren Neville, Maya and Leah. She also drew public attention in recent years for being the only member of the Tata family to attend Cyrus Mistry’s funeral, despite the widely known strained ties between the families.

Her funeral will take place on Saturday morning at the Cathedral of the Holy Name Church in Colaba, Mumbai.

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India News

Centre orders probe into IndiGo crisis, expects normal flight operations in three days

Amid record cancellations by IndiGo, the Centre has ordered a high-level inquiry and expects flight schedules to stabilise by Saturday, with full normalcy in three days.

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indigo

The Centre has initiated a high-level inquiry into the massive disruption of IndiGo’s operations, with the government projecting that flight schedules will begin stabilising by Saturday and full normalisation is expected within three days. The announcement comes as cancellations by the airline crossed 500 for the second consecutive day, severely impacting passengers across major airports.

Civil Aviation Minister Ram Mohan Naidu said the government has directed urgent measures to ensure swift restoration of services. Within minutes of his statement, the aviation regulator DGCA announced the formation of a four-member committee to examine the circumstances leading to the delays and cancellations.

DGCA forms committee as cancellations spark scrutiny

The DGCA said IndiGo was given sufficient time to implement revised Flight Duty Time Limitations (FDTL), yet the airline recorded the highest number of cancellations in November. The regulator added that the pattern suggested gaps in the carrier’s internal oversight and preparedness, warranting an independent probe.

The committee will review the sequence of events that triggered disruptions and recommend measures to prevent a recurrence.

Flight duty rules relaxed; minister defends move

Amid criticism from the Opposition and experts, the DGCA temporarily suspended certain FDTL rules, increasing pilot duty limits from 12 to 14 hours. The changes were widely questioned, with allegations that the government was yielding to pressure from IndiGo.

Naidu defended the decision, stating the move was taken solely to safeguard passengers and that safety standards would not be compromised.
He reiterated that passenger care and convenience remain the top priority.

Assurance of refunds, real-time updates, and support

Highlighting steps taken to ease passenger distress, the minister said airlines must:

  • Provide accurate, real-time updates before travellers leave for airports
  • Initiate automatic refunds for cancelled flights without requiring follow-ups
  • Arrange hotel accommodation for passengers stranded for extended periods

Senior citizens and persons with disabilities have been accorded special priority, including access to lounges and additional assistance. Refreshments and essential services are to be provided to all affected travellers.

Inquiry to determine accountability

The government said the high-level probe will identify what went wrong at IndiGo, establish responsibility, and recommend systemic corrections to ensure such disruptions do not occur again.

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