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BRICS Summit against Backdrop Of Plummeting Washington-Moscow Relations

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7 years ago

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BRICS Summit against Backdrop Of Plummeting Washington-Moscow Relations

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By: Saeed Naqvi

 Two recent events will influence attitudes at the 9th BRICS summit at Xiamen, China, from September 3 to 5 – Doklam and Trump’s decision to send more troops to Afghanistan.

 Beijing and Moscow have grave anxieties about terrorist groups, in the name of militant Islam, threatening their Xinxiang and Caucasus regions. They would therefore like terrorism to be an important theme at the summit.

So would New Delhi, but the Indian focus would be on Pakistan as the source of terror. The complication is that Pakistan has looked upon China as an all weather friend in recent years. Has skillful diplomacy, on all sides, defused the Doklam standoff sufficiently to prevent divergent approaches to Pakistan on terrorism come to the fore at the summit?

Moscow is cautious. Who knows how durable is the understanding reached over Doklam between Beijing, New Delhi.

That a RIC (Russia, India, China) Foreign Ministers conference is billed in New Delhi is a good sign. It was postponed in April because of heated exchanges between China and India over Dalai Lama’s weeklong visit to Arunachal Pradesh. Also, New Delhi had refused to attend the Belt and Road conference Beijing placed great store by. Indeed, New Delhi also prevailed on Thimpu not to attend.

 Moscow and Beijing view Afghanistan as the centre where terrorist groups like the Islamic State can breed and threaten countries in the neighbourhood and beyond.

 Since April 2016 a group of countries under the auspices of what came to be known as the Moscow initiative began to analyze the Taleban as an Afghan, nationalist category which was not fired by transnational aspirations like the IS and Al Qaeda. The Taleban, in other words, should be brought into the tent, to borrow Lyndon Johnson’s colourful expression.

This is a transformational design because so far the government in Kabul, Afghan security Forces, US and NATO Forces have targeted the Taleban as the enemy.

The use of this massive firepower, with western troop levels waxing and waning over the past 16 years, has not brought the alliance anywhere near victory. To the contrary, the terrain under Taleban control has grown exponentially. Defence Secretary James Mattis became only the umpteenth US official to declare before the media, his face in the lower mould: “we are losing.”

This candid acceptance of defeat in the longest war (16 years) ever waged by the US, has coincided with the Moscow led initiative to bring the Taleban into the Kabul power structure.

 The Moscow initiative was designed against the backdrop of Trump’s chant of walking away from previous US policies of intervention and nation building. Since the US was withdrawing, as Trump kept reminding all and sundry, it made sense for Moscow, Beijing, Tehran, Islamabad and the Central Asian Republics, to shape their Afghan policies according to their strategic requirements.

In a White House where the Deep State is demonstrably the ventriloquist and Trump the puppet, a flip-flop in Afghan policy was announced last week: there will be no withdrawal but a minimal troop surge (less than 4,000 to augment 11,000 already on the ground) to enable Kabul to recover some of the vast swathes of the country from Taleban control. Somewhere in this pursuit of a military solution, a carrot has also been inserted: a channel for talks with Taleban will also be opened.

To dignify this US initiative, the Moscow initiative has to be rubbished. Russians have been arming the Taleban, goes the allegation from Washington. Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, clarified this and more at a Moscow Press conference.

 When the US State Department made this accusation, he said, the Department should have known better. “Because at a news conference in the State Department, journalists asked the official spokesperson to present facts. Not a single fact was presented just like there was not a single fact to confirm our interference in the US election or breaking into sites.”

Lavrov contrasted Moscow’s policy with that of Washington on contacts with Taleban. He gives two reasons for such contacts. First, Moscow needs to resolve practical issues on which security of Russian citizens and offices in Afghanistan depend.

“Second we are striving to encourage a dialogue between the Taleban and the government on the basis of criteria (this is important, he insists) established by the UN Security Council.”

According to this “criteria” the Taleban must break ties with terrorists, end the armed struggle and respect the Constitution of Afghanistan. Washington’s abrupt policy of connecting with Taleban is without any conditions.

The fine print the Russians read in the US script on Afghanistan is not difference from what Lavrov has openly said in other theatres of conflict. The US is not out to douse fires of militancy: it intends to preserve some of it as “assets” against rivals and enemies. Breeding of the Mujahideen to evict the Soviets from Afghanistan in the 80s was not a one time trick.

Trump’s Afghan surge, despite himself, also comes at a time when he has been persuaded by his hawks to ratchet up tensions with Russia. The Russian Consulate in San Francisco has been closed and two other Russian properties in Washington and New York have been ordered to be shut by September 2.

This being the big-power play in the region, how should New Delhi respond to Trump’s cajolery in Afghanistan? To frame policy, friends in South Block have to do no more than visit Saket in South Delhi. You cannot walk into Max hospital without coming face to face with an Afghan. By universal consent of doctors and other hospital staff, they are the most gentle patients. This outreach cannot be matched.

 In front of the hospital, in Hauz Rani, a row of Afghan eating places has come up.

 Pakistanis stepping out of Kabul’s Serena hotel do not wear Peshawari sandals and Pathan suits. They feel safer in trousers and bush shirts, looking like Indians. Hospitals, schools, roads and, above all, Bollywood have already won Afghan hearts. Nothing should be done to upturn this low key, common sense policy. Expeditious completion of Chabahar port in Iran, linking to Central Asia by a road through Afghanistan will be brilliant for commerce and for winning hearts and minds.

 What must not be overlooked is the change in US policy towards New Delhi’s role. When President Barack Obama announced troop withdrawals from July 2011, the assumption was that Afghanistan would have been reasonably stabilized by that date.

 US Force Commander Gen. Stanley McChrystal created something of a flutter in New Delhi. He said New Delhi’s popularity among the Afghans – because of development works – creates complications because it distracts Pakistan from its war on terror focus.

Washington’s new blandishments make one feel good but they would be more valuable if the reliability quotient of the occupant of the White House was a shade higher.

 The principals sitting around the table at the Xiamen summit likewise will carry in their minds the image of what to each one of them is a very different kind of Presidency in Washington. No one quite knows what to make of it.

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Kremlin denies US media reports on Donald Trump’s phone call with Vladimir Putin

Donald Trump said on the campaign trail that he could end the fighting within hours and has indicated he would talk directly with Russian President Putin.

Published

2 weeks ago

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November 11, 2024

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Kremlin denies US media reports on Donald Trump’s phone call with Vladimir Putin

The Kremlin today denied a US media report that Russian President Vladimir Putin and US president-elect Donald Trump had spoken on the phone last week about the Ukraine conflict.

Earlier on Sunday, The Washington Post reported that Donald Trump spoke to Vladimir Pution on call, urging him not to inflame the conflict. Speaking on the matter, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the media that the report was completely false information, and denied any phone call took place.

It was reported that US President-elect Donald Trump has spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin and urged him not to escalate the war in Ukraine. It said that Donald Trump held the call from his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida on Thursday, just days after his stunning election victory over Democratic rival Kamala Harris. The report also mentioned that both the leaders expressed an interest in further conversations to discuss the resolution of Ukraine’s war soon.

Notably, Donald Trump said on the campaign trail that he could end the fighting within hours and has indicated he would talk directly with Russian President Putin. However, the US President elect has not said how he intends to strike a peace deal or what terms he is proposing.

Donald Trump’s election is seen as carrying the potential to upend the almost three-year Ukraine conflict, as he insists on a quick end to the fighting and casts doubt on Washington’s multi-billion dollar support for Kyiv.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke with Trump on Wednesday, with the Republican’s billionaire backer Elon Musk also notably joining them on the call. Volodymyr Zelensky described the call as excellent, adding that he and Trump had agreed to maintain close dialogue and advance our cooperation.

Additionally, the outgoing Democratic administration of President Joe Biden has confirmed that it will send as much aid as possible to Ukraine before Trump’s inauguration on January 20.

Joe Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said the White House aims to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position on the battlefield so that it is ultimately in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table.

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India calls out Canada’s move to ban Australia Today for airing S Jaishankar’s press conference

The MEA said that these actions yet again highlight the hypocrisy of Canada towards freedom of speech.

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2 weeks ago

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November 7, 2024

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India calls out Canada’s move to ban Australia Today for airing S Jaishankar's press conference

A few hours after Australia Today aired External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s press conference in Australia, Canada banned the outlet. The External Affairs Minister gave remarks on the India-Canada diplomatic standoff. 

Reacting to this, India on Thursday said it was surprised by Canada’s move to ban the outlet and emphasized that it highlighted Ottawa’s hypocrisy towards freedom of speech. Australia Today, which is an important outlet for the Indian community in the country, had aired the joint press conference of S Jaishankar and his Australian counterpart Penny Wong in Canberra.

In a weekly media briefing, MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said that they understand that the social media handles, pages of this particular outlet, which is an important diaspora outlet, have been blocked and are not available for viewers in Canada. He continued that this happened just an hour or a few hours after this particular handle carried the press conference of S Jaishankar with Penny Wong. He called out the incident, mentioning that they are surprised, and the matter looks strange to them.

He further underlined that these are the actions which yet again highlight the hypocrisy of Canada towards freedom of speech. He noted that the External Affairs Minister spoke about three things: Canada making allegations and a pattern had developed without any specific evidence, surveillance of Indian diplomats in Canada, which he termed as unacceptable, and  the political space which has been given in Canada to anti-India elements. 

With this one can draw conclusions, why Australia Today channel was blocked by Canada, the spokesperson said. Australia Today focuses on news and analytical pieces related to the Indian community in Australia and elsewhere across the world.

This incident follows days after devotees were attacked by pro-Khalistani at a Hindu temple in Canada’s Brampton, with S Jaishankar calling it deeply concerning. Furthermore, Prime Minister Narendra Modi also condemned the attack and said that there were cowardly attempts to intimidate Indian diplomats.

The diplomatic standoff between India and Canada began in September last year when Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau alleged that Indian government agents might have been involved in the killing of Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a claim outrightly rejected by New Delhi.

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PM Modi congratulates Donald Trump on winning US President election

The Prime Minister urged Trump to work for the betterment of the people and to promote global peace, stability and prosperity.

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2 weeks ago

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November 6, 2024

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday congratulated Donald Trump on winning the 2024 US Presidential election and said he is looking forward to renewing their collaboration to further strengthen the India-US partnership.

The Prime Minister urged Trump to work for the betterment of the people and to promote global peace, stability and prosperity.

“Heartiest congratulations my friend @realDonaldTrump on your historic election victory. As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership. Together, let’s work for the betterment of our people and to promote global peace, stability and prosperity,” PM Modi posted on his X handle.

With the results being announced for the 2024 US election on November 6, Trump became the 47th President of the United States.

Former US President Trump appeared to be on track for a remarkable political comeback in the White House race. Projections suggested that he was poised to secure the necessary 270 electoral college votes, effectively blocking Democratic candidate Kamala Harris from winning the election.

The relationship between Trump and Modi has been characterised by robust diplomatic ties, strategic collaboration, and a noticeable personal rapport. Their friendship was prominently displayed during major events such as “Howdy, Modi” in Houston in 2019 and “Namaste Trump” in Ahmedabad in 2020, where they addressed large audiences and expressed their mutual respect.

On a strategic level, Trump and Modi found common ground in matters of defense and security, both adopting a strong stance against terrorism, which reinforced their alliance, particularly concerning threats from Pakistan.

As he approaches a notable victory in the US election, Republican Presidential candidate Trump expressed gratitude to his supporters today, calling it a magnificent victory for the American people. He also referenced the assassination attempt on July 13, stating, “God spared my life for a reason.”

The 78-year-old candidate is currently projected to secure 267 electoral college votes, just three shy of the decisive 270, while his opponent, incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris, holds 224 electoral votes.

Trump described the Republican campaign as the greatest political movement of all time, asserting, “We are going to help our country heal, secure our borders, and we made history for a reason tonight. This is an incredible political victory. I want to thank the American people. I will fight for you and your family with every breath I have.”

He noted that Democrats are now looking at a projected total of 315 electoral votes.

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