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Fact-checking the budget: some false claims, some shortcomings, esp the ‘dole’ to farmers

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Piyush Goyal

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Seen as an ‘election budget’ by all, including the upbeat members of government and the ruling BJP, the Budget 2019 with provisions that goes well beyond the ‘interim’ period of the three-month remaining term of this dispensation was found wanting by analysts with regard to some facts and promises.

As for the much flaunted sops for the poor and farmers, a look at the provisions made revealed them to be misleading and meaningless. The ‘smart’ move with regard to farmers is that the payment for Rs.6,000 annual income will start retrospectively from December 2018, and the first instalment of Rs.2,000 will be deposited in farmers’ account this March: just in time for 2019 Lok Sabha election.

The allocation for MGNREGA, about which the initial claim of an increase was followed by silence, is Rs. 60,000 crore.

This is 1.8% lower than the Rs 61,084 crore (revised estimate) allocated for 2018-19.

In February 2018, the Union budget had earmarked Rs 55,000 crore to the demand-driven rural employment scheme. In January 2019, the government had to allocate an additional Rs 6,084 crore to the programme to meet its financial demands, thus taking up the total amount to be spent in the financial year 2018-19 to Rs 61,084 crore.

For the last few years, though the demand for MGNREGA has been steadily increasing, the government has not been able to address it fully, leading to pending liabilities.

Prior to the presentation of the 2018 full budget, NREGA Sangharsh Morcha, a country-wide coalition of organisations and individuals, had submitted a memorandum to the Union finance ministry stating that there should be an annual allocation in the range of Rs 80,000 crore to be able to minimally function as per its legal provisions.

A shortfall would aggravate problems of implementation and pending liabilities, leaving the poor short-changed.

PM Kisan Samman Nidhi

Narendra Modi government’s income support scheme for small farmers – those cultivating up to two hectares of land – is Rs.6,000 a year, or Rs 500 per month. Considering a household size of five, this is 1/8th the rural poverty line of Rs 816 per person per month.

The allocation of Rs.20,000 crore in the interim budget (out of the total Rs.75,000 crore) falls short of meeting even this target. According to 2015-16 Agriculture Census, the  small  and  marginal  holdings  taken  together  (0.00-2.00  ha) constituted  86.21% of total 14.6 crore operational  holdings in  the  country, or a total of over 12.58 crore. If Rs. 2000/- is allocated for each small & marginal farm household as part of 1st instalment, then the total spending (cost) under PM Kisan Samman Nidhi would be 25,160 crore.

But the interim budget has allocated only Rs. 20,000 crore for 2018-19 (R.E.). So, even if landless farmers, SC-ST farmers, women farmers, sharecroppers and tenant farmers are kept aside, not all the small and marginal households can get covered under the income support scheme (assuming that 1 household operates one holding

Agriculture and food policy expert Devinder Sharma who has been advocating a fixed annual income for farmers was surprised at the figures allocated for the purpose. “How can they seriously think that a support of Rs 500 per month will help farmers out of the terrible agrarian crisis. And how will it help reduce the number of farmers suicides.”

The announcement is also discriminatory in nature. The measure is meant for small farmers with less than two hectares of land and does not take into account the 40% tenant farmers and agricultural workers who had been left out of the Budget altogether. The forest rights being demanded by the Adivasis and tribals has not even been acknowledged.

Ashok Gulati, chair professor for agriculture at ICRIER, writing in The Indian Express, said  that the direct income support to farmers of total Rs..75,000 crore is nowhere near the annual loss of about Rs 2,65,000 crore that farmers have been suffering in recent years because of the low prices they have received due to restrictive marketing and trade policies. “Until major marketing reforms are initiated, there is no hope of doubling farmers’ real incomes by 2022-23,” he wrote.

Moreover, the budget has nothing to create jobs. Gulati said: “It is more like using band-aid where surgery was required.”

Apart from the shortcomings in these two of the major announcements, several of the claims of Interim Finance Minister Piyush Goyal were contested by FactChecker.in of The Spending and Policy Research Foundation which verifies the claims made by those in public life and has been certified by the International Fact-Checking Network, a unit of the Poynter Institute.

Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY)

Claim: 1.53 crore (15.3 million) houses constructed.

Fact: As of December 2018, at least 3.65 million houses were constructed under PMAY, according to government data. Of these, 1.25 million were constructed in urban areas whereas 2.4 million in rural areas.

Foreign Direct Investment

Claim: India could attract massive amount of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) during the last five years- as much as $239 billion.

Fact: True. But the rate of growth of FDI inflows have declined from 25 percent in 2014-15 and 23 percent in 2015-16 to eight percent in 2016-17 and one percent in 2017-18.

Distribution of LED Bulbs

Claim: At least 143 crore (1.43 billion) bulbs distributed that will save Rs 50,000 crore.

Fact: Till date, 32.3 crore (323 million) LED bulbs have been distributed, as per official records.

Swachh Bharat Mission

Claim: Mindset change achieved.

Fact: In 2018, 40 percent households with a toilet, according to a SQUAT Survey, had at least one member who defecated in the open

Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana

Claim: Over one crore (10 million) youth being trained to help them earn a livelihood.

Fact: Between July 2016 to 30 November 2018, under PM’s Skill Development Programme (second edition) as many as 3.6 million or 36 percent of the target had enrolled and 3.39 million (34 percent) had been trained. In the first edition, between July 2015 to and June 2016, 1.9 million were trained, as per government data.

Also Read: No Vote on Account; Modi govt presents an election Budget ‘interim’ only in name

The first edition was severely criticised for several shortcomings including low level of placements, low quality of training and inflated training numbers.

Mobile Manufacturing Units

Claim: Under Make in India initiative, mobiles and part manufacturing companies have increased from two to 268, providing huge job opportunities.

Also Read: Opposition parties calls Interim Budget a jumla, can’t be implemented

Fact: As of August 2018, there were 127 mobile manufacturing units in the country, the government told Lok Sabha citing information provided by the Indian Cellular Association.

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India News

Why Hindenburg Research is shutting down: A personal note from the founder

Anderson emphasised that his choice was not prompted by any single factor. There are no external threats, health concerns, or urgent issues necessitating this decision. Instead, he described it as a natural conclusion to a significant chapter in his life.

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Nate Anderson, the founder of Hindenburg Research, has decided to shut down his short-selling venture, which has famously exposed alleged frauds amounting to billions and sent shockwaves through major corporations. From igniting a $150 billion crisis for the Adani Group to taking down giants like Nikola and Eros International, Hindenburg has become synonymous with financial scrutiny and controversy depending on one’s perspective.

In a comprehensive blog post titled “Personal Note From Our Founder,” Anderson revealed his decision, stating that the firm has fulfilled its mission and that it is time to move forward. “As I’ve shared with family, friends, and our team since late last year, I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research,” he wrote.

Anderson emphasised that his choice was not prompted by any single factor. There are no external threats, health concerns, or urgent issues necessitating this decision. Instead, he described it as a natural conclusion to a significant chapter in his life.

This announcement follows Hindenburg’s completion of its final investigations into alleged financial fraud, which have been submitted to regulators. “As of the last Ponzi cases we just completed and are sharing with regulators, that day is today,” Anderson noted.

Reflecting on his career, he acknowledged that his intense dedication to the firm had come at the expense of other life areas. Initially motivated by a desire to prove himself, he ultimately began to view Hindenburg Research as just one of many chapters in his life.

In the upcoming six months, Anderson plans to create and share content, including materials and videos, to transparently illustrate the firm’s investigative techniques. He hopes this will inspire others to pursue similar efforts.

Hindenburg Research operated with a small but committed team of 11 members. Anderson praised their dedication to precise, evidence-based reporting and their courage in uncovering financial fraud. His team’s efforts have significantly influenced the landscape of financial accountability, with nearly 100 individuals facing civil or criminal charges partially attributable to their investigations.

“Nearly 100 individuals have been charged civilly or criminally by regulators, at least in part due to our work, including billionaires and oligarchs. We shook some empires that we felt needed shaking,” Anderson stated.

Hindenburg garnered international attention in January 2023 when it published a report alleging fraud and stock manipulation by the Adani Group. This report triggered a massive selloff in Adani’s stock, erasing over $100 billion from Gautam Adani’s personal wealth and causing the market capitalization of 10 Adani Group companies to plummet from ₹19.19 lakh crore on January 24, 2023, to below ₹7 lakh crore by February 27.

Although Adani stocks eventually recovered, the Supreme Court later noted that allegations made by organizations like Hindenburg, without proper verification, cannot be considered valid evidence. Previously, Hindenburg’s investigations included exposing Nikola Corporation in 2020 for fraud, which resulted in the resignation of founder Trevor Milton.

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India News

Sensex sheds 1,049 points, Nifty drops below 23,100

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Sensex falls 1,049 points, Nifty slips below 23,100 amid market downturn

The Indian stock market faced another day of sharp declines on January 13, as bearish sentiments tightened their grip for the fourth consecutive session. Weak global cues, a surge in crude oil prices to a three-month high, and reduced expectations of a U.S. rate cut in 2025 contributed to the downward spiral.

At the close of trading, the Sensex plunged 1,048.90 points or 1.36% to settle at 76,330.01. The Nifty also fell significantly, shedding 345.55 points or 1.47% to close at 23,085.95.

Sectoral impact

All sectoral indices ended the session in the red. The realty index was the worst hit, slumping by 6.7%. Other sectors, including oil & gas, power, PSU, metal, and media, recorded losses in the range of 3-4%.

This broad-based sell-off saw investors’ wealth take a major hit. The market capitalization of BSE-listed companies dropped sharply by Rs 12.39 lakh crore, falling to Rs 417.28 lakh crore from Rs 429.67 lakh crore in the previous session.

Key drivers of the decline

Crude oil prices: Crude oil surged to a three-month high, stoking fears of inflationary pressures and higher input costs across industries.

Global market trends: Weak global markets added to investor apprehensions, as global indices reflected a cautious outlook amid economic uncertainties.

Interest rate concerns: Revised expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts in 2025 also weighed on investor sentiment.

Outlook

Market experts suggest that volatility may persist in the near term as global and domestic factors continue to influence investor behavior. A focus on corporate earnings reports and international economic trends will be critical in shaping market movements in the weeks ahead.

With a significant erosion in investor wealth, market participants remain cautious as they navigate the ongoing uncertainties.

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Latest business news

Pune entrepreneur asks Blinkit CEO to launch ATM service after Ambulance, sparks debate

It’s worth mentioning that similar services are already available, such as platforms like MakeMyTrip that offer foreign currency delivery.

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Days after Blinkit launched its 10-minute ambulance service, a start-up founder and YouTuber reached out to Blinkit CEO Albinder Dhindsa with a request to introduce an “ATM-like” service. The founder suggested that this service would be “incredibly helpful.”

Harsh Punjabi, founder of The Dot Company and a YouTuber, posted on social media platform X: “Hey @albinder, please start an ATM-like service on Blinkit. Users could pay via UPI, and cash could be delivered to their doorstep in under 10 minutes. That would be super helpful!”

His rationale for this suggestion became clear in a follow-up tweet where he expressed, “Leaving for a trip and need cash. I only have Rs 100 at home. I don’t want to go to the ATM, but it looks like I’ll have to.”

Punjabi’s tweet sparked a variety of responses. Some users pointed out that delivery charges would incur an 18 percent GST, while others claimed that the idea would make Indians lazier. Many questioned the need for cash, given the widespread acceptance of UPI.

One user remarked, “The idea is good, but the 18 percent GST on delivery charges would ruin everything,” while another joked, “This scheme should be kept a secret.”

Another user lamented, “Why doesn’t Blinkit breathe on our behalf too? We’ve become that lazy,” and another added humorously, “Please, let’s not make India lazy to this extent.”

A user highlighted that similar arrangements exist where customers go to shops, pay extra for their bills, and take back the additional cash for tasks like paying rickshaw pullers.

“Why do you want cash? Cash should be eliminated. We need maximum digitalization,” one user opined, while another noted that acquiring smaller notes can be tricky, especially when UPI isn’t an option.

It’s worth mentioning that similar services are already available, such as platforms like MakeMyTrip that offer foreign currency delivery.

On January 2, Blinkit announced its ambulance service. Dhindsa stated, “We are taking our first step toward addressing the challenge of providing quick and reliable ambulance services in our cities. The first five ambulances will be operational in Gurugram starting today. As we expand, users will soon have the option to book a Basic Life Support (BLS) ambulance through the Blinkit app.”

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