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GDP overestimation: PM’s panel to issue ‘point by point rebuttal’ to ex-CEA’s claim

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GDP overestimation: PM’s panel to issue ‘point by point rebuttal’ to ex-CEA’s claim

As was to be expected, the Economic Advisory Council (EAC) to the Prime Minister today (Wednesday, June 12) rejected former Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) Arvind Subramanian’s claim that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers have been inflated, said media reports.

Subramanian in his study, reported yesterday, had said that India’s economic growth was overestimated by 2.5% points per year between 2011-’12 and 2016-’17, a period when both the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and National Democratic Alliance (NDA) governments were in power.

In his article in The Indian Express yesterday, Subramanian had said the actual growth figures between 2011 and 2017 — a period that spanned the UPA2 and the Narendra Modi government’s first term – werecloser to 4.5 per cent and not 7 per cent.

He has also suggested that the GDP estimation be revisited by an independent task force comprising national and international experts, statisticians, macro-economists and policy users.

The PM’s advisory body said Subramanian had made “strong claims”.

“It is worth noting that the base year of India’s income calculations shifted to 2011-’12 on the basis of recommendations of several committees with experts in National Income Accounting,” the EAC said. “It was on the basis of these recommendations, started in 2008, that the government implemented the change from January, 2015. Therefore, it is wrong to suggest that the views of experts have not been taken into account while changing the Base Year…”

Also Read: India’s growth rate overestimated by 2.5%, says study by former chief economic advisor

The advisory body also claimed that a country’s GDP should be measured in nominal terms, not in terms of real growth rates. “The Economic Advisory Council will examine in detail the estimates made in Subramanian’s paper and come out with a point-by-point rebuttal in due course,” it added.

It also accused the former CEA of attempting to sensationalise the matter, and said this was undesirable “from the point of view of preserving the independence and quality of India’s statistical systems”.

“These are certainly issues that Dr Subramanian must certainly have raised while he was working as CEA, though by his own admission, he has taken time to understand India’s growth numbers and is still unsure,” the council added.

The statement follows a clarification last evening from the Ministry of Statistics, which said estimates of the country’s economic growth are based on “accepted procedures, methodologies and available data”.

The Council argued that Dr. Subramanian, in his research, used “cross-country regressions” to estimate the GDP and said it was a “most unusual exercise”.

“Using cross-country regressions to estimate GDP is a most unusual exercise, as is the suggestion that any country’s GDP that is off the regression line must be questioned. The proxy indicators that he used can also be questioned. Nor does this exercise allow for GDP increases on the basis of productivity gains,” the statement read.

“A country’s GDP is in nominal terms and any exercise should be on the basis of nominal figures, not real growth rates,” it added.

Also Read: RBI cuts interest rates as economy slows, India loses out to China as fastest growing economy

Subramanian had said inaccurate statistics on the economy “dampen the impetus for reform”, and restoring growth must be the current government’s key policy objective. “In reality, weak job growth and acute financial sector stress may have simply stemmed from modest GDP growth,” he had added. The same day, the Centre claimed Subramanian’s estimates were based on “accepted procedures, methodologies, and available data”.

In May, the government had announced that India’s growth rate had declined to 5.8% in the last quarter of the financial year 2018-’19. This was the slowest pace of growth in 17 quarters.

India News

Bank holiday today: Are banks open or closed on June 29? Here’s what RBI calendar says

Banks in Himachal Pradesh and Mizoram will remain closed on June 29, 2026, due to regional holidays, while banking operations will continue normally in most other states.

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Bank Holidays

As June comes to an end, many customers are wondering whether banks across the country are open on June 29, 2026. According to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) holiday calendar, bank operations will not be affected nationwide, but branches in some states will remain closed due to local holidays.

Banks closed in these states on June 29

Banks will remain shut in Himachal Pradesh on Monday, June 29, on account of Sant Guru Kabir Jayanti. In addition, bank branches in Mizoram will remain closed to observe Remna Ni, a regional public holiday.

However, bank branches in most other states and Union Territories are expected to function normally as June 29 is not a nationwide banking holiday.

Will online banking services remain available?

Even when physical branches remain closed, customers can continue using digital banking facilities. Services such as internet banking, mobile banking, UPI transactions, ATM withdrawals and cash deposits at ATMs will remain operational.

Customers planning to visit a bank branch are advised to check with their local branch beforehand, as holiday schedules may vary depending on the state and local observances.

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Union Budget 2026 highlights: Nirmala Sitharaman Raises Capex to Rs 12.2 Lakh Cr, West Bengal Gets Major Allocation

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is presenting the Union Budget 2026 in Parliament today. Follow this space for live updates, key announcements, and policy insights.

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Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman arrives to present Union Budget 2026

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will shortly present the Union Budget 2026 in the Lok Sabha, marking her ninth consecutive Budget. The annual financial statement is expected to outline the government’s policy priorities, reform agenda and spending plans for the coming year. Stay tuned for live updates, key announcements and immediate reactions as the Budget speech unfolds.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman tabled her ninth Union Budget today, beginning her speech at 11 am.

Nirmala Sitharaman is set to present her ninth Union Budget today, with the finance minister scheduled to begin her speech at 11 am.

Budget 2026 live updates: Presenting the Union Budget for 2026–27, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the occasion coincided with Magh Purnima and the birth anniversary of Guru Ravidas. She noted that over the past 12 years, India’s economic journey has been defined by stability, fiscal discipline, sustained growth and moderate inflation.

The budgeted fiscal deficit for fiscal 2026 is estimated at 4.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP)

Planned capital expenditure this fiscal year Rs 11.2 lakh crore

Rare earth corrdiors in Odisha and Kerala

Hi-tech tool rooms to be set up by PSUs

Construction equipment scheme to be launched

Container manufacturing scheme for Rs 10,000 crore over 5 years

Rs 10,000 crore SME Growth Fund

Semi-conductor mission to get Rs 40,000 crore

Rs 12.2 lakh crores for infrastructure development

Dedicated RITES to repurpose land of Central PSUs

20 new waterways over next 5 years to be connected

7 high-speed corridors on rail

High-level committee on banking for next phase of Viksit Bharat

Capital expenditure hike of to ₹12.2 lakh crore in Budget 2026, with West Bengal receiving a significant share of allocations.

Mahatma Gandhi Gram Swaraj Initiative aimed at boosting the khadi, handloom, and handicrafts sectors.

High-speed rail corridors: Mumbai-Pune, Pune-Bengaluru, Hyderabad-Bengaluru, Chennai-Bengaluru, Delhi-Varanasi, Varanasi-Siliguri, Pune-Hyderabad

Five university campuses to be established near industrial corridors

Lakpati Didi program expanded in Budget 2026 to reach more beneficiaries across India.

Fiscal deficit for FY26 revised to 4.4%; Budget Estimate for FY27 set at 4.3%.

TCS on overseas tour packages cut to 2% to ease travel costs

Tax holiday to foreign companies that provide cloud services by setting up data centres in India till 2047

17 cancer drugs exempted from import duties

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Union budget 2026 to be presented on Sunday with special trading session

The Union Budget 2026 will be presented on a Sunday for the first time in over two decades, with NSE and BSE announcing special trading sessions for the day.

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Nirmala Sitharaman

For the first time in more than two decades, the Union Budget will be presented on a Sunday. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is scheduled to table the Union Budget for 2026 in the Lok Sabha on February 1 at 11 am, even as the day is usually observed as a holiday for government offices and financial markets.

February 1 falls on a Sunday this year, raising questions about market operations and investor response. To ensure uninterrupted trading and immediate market reaction to budget announcements, stock exchanges have announced special arrangements for the day.

Markets to remain open on budget day

Both the National Stock Exchange and the Bombay Stock Exchange have confirmed that markets will remain open on February 1. The NSE has announced a special trading session, with the pre-open market scheduled from 9 am to 9:08 am, followed by normal trading hours from 9:15 am to 3:30 pm.

The BSE has also declared the day a special trading day, with regular market hours applicable. Trading is expected to continue across equity, derivatives, and futures and options segments.

What the Sunday budget means for investors

A weekend budget presentation is seen as offering certain advantages for market participants. With trading active on the same day, investors will be able to respond to policy announcements immediately rather than waiting for the next working day.

The Sunday timing also gives investors, analysts, and financial institutions additional time to go through detailed proposals, including tax changes, fiscal deficit targets, and sector-wise allocations. The extended window for analysis may help reduce sharp, headline-driven reactions and encourage more informed decision-making.

With fewer competing developments on a non-working day, budget announcements are also expected to receive more focused attention from markets and stakeholders.

Parliamentary schedule and key milestones

The Economic Survey is expected to be tabled on January 29, ahead of the budget presentation. The Budget Session of Parliament began on January 28 with the President’s address to a joint sitting of the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha.

The upcoming budget will mark Nirmala Sitharaman’s ninth consecutive Union Budget. It will also be India’s 80th budget since Independence. Since 2017, Union Budgets have been presented at 11 am on February 1, following a timing change introduced during the tenure of former finance minister Arun Jaitley.

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