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Rupee crashes to all-time low of 69 per dollar before slight recovery; may touch 72 by year-end

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Rupee crashes to all-time low of 69 per dollar before slight recovery; may touch 72 by year-end

The rupee crashed to an all-time low of 69.0925 against the US dollar on Thursday, June 28 morning, past its previous record of 68.8650 reached in November 2016.

The rupee later recovered partially to 68.91 at around 11 am against the US dollar on suspected Reserve Bank intervention, said media reports. Some analysts who foresaw little scope of a turnaround soon said the rupee may cross 70 per dollar and touch 72 by year-end.

The fall came as rising crude oil prices triggered worries about the further rise in the current account deficit and inflation, reported The Indian Express.

The rupee also came under additional pressure from huge capital outflows of around Rs 60,000 crore from the capital market since April 1 this year, the IE report said.

Foreign investors pulling out funds from India and crude oil prices moving upwards have led to the Indian currency losing around eight per cent this year, said the report.

World’s third biggest oil consumer, India relies on imports to meet about two-thirds of its fuel needs, making it one of the most sensitive in the region to advances in oil prices.

“Given India’s current-account deficit, there is a need to fund it, but we are on track for a fifth consecutive month of bond outflows and the equity market has also been experiencing outflows,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Singapore, reported IE. Without a turnaround, the rupee may weaken past 70 per dollar, he said.

Overseas investors have reduced holdings of rupee-denominated government and corporate bonds by $6.1 billion, and pulled $785 million from equities since the beginning of 2018. The withdrawals have made the rupee the worst-performing currency in Asia, spurring analysts to put out bearish forecasts.

Barclays Plc now predicts the currency at 72 by year-end, while DBS Bank Ltd. sees 71 to a dollar by June 2019, said the IE report.

“Rising crude prices are a drag on the Indian economy and fuel inflation concerns, as it’s a major driver of our current account deficit. India imports around 80 per cent of its crude oil requirements and higher crude oil prices risks widening India’s current account deficit, adding inflation risks,” said IE, quoting an analyst with Religare Broking.

India’s assets are caught in a vicious downward spiral, where capital outflows hurt the currency, further deterring investments. Concerns about the government’s debt sales and the impact of rising crude prices have on inflation have led to a bond selloff at time when investors are also pulling out of emerging markets because of higher Treasury yields.

Oil prices rose to their highest level since November 2014 on Wednesday after a bigger-than-expected drop in US crude stockpiles added to a rally fueled by a major Canadian supply outage, concerns about Libya’s exports and stepped-up efforts by the Trump administration to disrupt Iran’s petroleum exports by pressure on its allies to halt purchases of Iranian supplies.

Analysts said persistent weakness in the Chinese yuan also dragged down emerging market currencies, including the Indian rupee, amid escalating trade tensions. There is “risk off” environment as investors are waiting to see the next development in the trade tussle involving the US and China. “The domestic currency is leading the decline in the region and is not far from its record-low,” Religare said.

According to analysts, capital outflows of around Rs 19,500 crore from the equity market and over Rs 40,000 crore from the debt market since April this year have put severe pressure on the rupee.

The rupee fall is expected to make imports – especially oil — costlier and exports more remunerative. Tech companies are expected to reap a windfall from the rupee depreciation.

India’s foreign-currency reserves have fallen in eight of the nine weeks to June 15, suggesting the central bank has been intervening to stem the pace of the currency’s decline. State-owned banks are probably selling dollars and buying rupees on behalf of the central bank, two traders from local lenders said Thursday, citing price action.

The RBI also raised its key rate earlier this month, joining other emerging economies like Indonesia and Philippines, who have tightened to defend their currency.

Earlier this month, on June 6, the RBI had increased the key policy rate – Repo rate – by 25 basis points to 6.25 per cent for the first time in four years. Headline inflation has been sharper than anticipated, and has remained above the 4 per cent target for six consecutive months, the RBI had said. A week later, on June 13, the US Federal Reserve had raised its policy rate by 25 basis points.

The sentiment in the forex market is expected to remain jittery ahead of the (US government) report on Chinese investments due Friday, and the July 6 deadline for tariff imposition.

India News

Why Hindenburg Research is shutting down: A personal note from the founder

Anderson emphasised that his choice was not prompted by any single factor. There are no external threats, health concerns, or urgent issues necessitating this decision. Instead, he described it as a natural conclusion to a significant chapter in his life.

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Nate Anderson, the founder of Hindenburg Research, has decided to shut down his short-selling venture, which has famously exposed alleged frauds amounting to billions and sent shockwaves through major corporations. From igniting a $150 billion crisis for the Adani Group to taking down giants like Nikola and Eros International, Hindenburg has become synonymous with financial scrutiny and controversy depending on one’s perspective.

In a comprehensive blog post titled “Personal Note From Our Founder,” Anderson revealed his decision, stating that the firm has fulfilled its mission and that it is time to move forward. “As I’ve shared with family, friends, and our team since late last year, I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research,” he wrote.

Anderson emphasised that his choice was not prompted by any single factor. There are no external threats, health concerns, or urgent issues necessitating this decision. Instead, he described it as a natural conclusion to a significant chapter in his life.

This announcement follows Hindenburg’s completion of its final investigations into alleged financial fraud, which have been submitted to regulators. “As of the last Ponzi cases we just completed and are sharing with regulators, that day is today,” Anderson noted.

Reflecting on his career, he acknowledged that his intense dedication to the firm had come at the expense of other life areas. Initially motivated by a desire to prove himself, he ultimately began to view Hindenburg Research as just one of many chapters in his life.

In the upcoming six months, Anderson plans to create and share content, including materials and videos, to transparently illustrate the firm’s investigative techniques. He hopes this will inspire others to pursue similar efforts.

Hindenburg Research operated with a small but committed team of 11 members. Anderson praised their dedication to precise, evidence-based reporting and their courage in uncovering financial fraud. His team’s efforts have significantly influenced the landscape of financial accountability, with nearly 100 individuals facing civil or criminal charges partially attributable to their investigations.

“Nearly 100 individuals have been charged civilly or criminally by regulators, at least in part due to our work, including billionaires and oligarchs. We shook some empires that we felt needed shaking,” Anderson stated.

Hindenburg garnered international attention in January 2023 when it published a report alleging fraud and stock manipulation by the Adani Group. This report triggered a massive selloff in Adani’s stock, erasing over $100 billion from Gautam Adani’s personal wealth and causing the market capitalization of 10 Adani Group companies to plummet from ₹19.19 lakh crore on January 24, 2023, to below ₹7 lakh crore by February 27.

Although Adani stocks eventually recovered, the Supreme Court later noted that allegations made by organizations like Hindenburg, without proper verification, cannot be considered valid evidence. Previously, Hindenburg’s investigations included exposing Nikola Corporation in 2020 for fraud, which resulted in the resignation of founder Trevor Milton.

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India News

Sensex sheds 1,049 points, Nifty drops below 23,100

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Sensex falls 1,049 points, Nifty slips below 23,100 amid market downturn

The Indian stock market faced another day of sharp declines on January 13, as bearish sentiments tightened their grip for the fourth consecutive session. Weak global cues, a surge in crude oil prices to a three-month high, and reduced expectations of a U.S. rate cut in 2025 contributed to the downward spiral.

At the close of trading, the Sensex plunged 1,048.90 points or 1.36% to settle at 76,330.01. The Nifty also fell significantly, shedding 345.55 points or 1.47% to close at 23,085.95.

Sectoral impact

All sectoral indices ended the session in the red. The realty index was the worst hit, slumping by 6.7%. Other sectors, including oil & gas, power, PSU, metal, and media, recorded losses in the range of 3-4%.

This broad-based sell-off saw investors’ wealth take a major hit. The market capitalization of BSE-listed companies dropped sharply by Rs 12.39 lakh crore, falling to Rs 417.28 lakh crore from Rs 429.67 lakh crore in the previous session.

Key drivers of the decline

Crude oil prices: Crude oil surged to a three-month high, stoking fears of inflationary pressures and higher input costs across industries.

Global market trends: Weak global markets added to investor apprehensions, as global indices reflected a cautious outlook amid economic uncertainties.

Interest rate concerns: Revised expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts in 2025 also weighed on investor sentiment.

Outlook

Market experts suggest that volatility may persist in the near term as global and domestic factors continue to influence investor behavior. A focus on corporate earnings reports and international economic trends will be critical in shaping market movements in the weeks ahead.

With a significant erosion in investor wealth, market participants remain cautious as they navigate the ongoing uncertainties.

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Latest business news

Pune entrepreneur asks Blinkit CEO to launch ATM service after Ambulance, sparks debate

It’s worth mentioning that similar services are already available, such as platforms like MakeMyTrip that offer foreign currency delivery.

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Days after Blinkit launched its 10-minute ambulance service, a start-up founder and YouTuber reached out to Blinkit CEO Albinder Dhindsa with a request to introduce an “ATM-like” service. The founder suggested that this service would be “incredibly helpful.”

Harsh Punjabi, founder of The Dot Company and a YouTuber, posted on social media platform X: “Hey @albinder, please start an ATM-like service on Blinkit. Users could pay via UPI, and cash could be delivered to their doorstep in under 10 minutes. That would be super helpful!”

His rationale for this suggestion became clear in a follow-up tweet where he expressed, “Leaving for a trip and need cash. I only have Rs 100 at home. I don’t want to go to the ATM, but it looks like I’ll have to.”

Punjabi’s tweet sparked a variety of responses. Some users pointed out that delivery charges would incur an 18 percent GST, while others claimed that the idea would make Indians lazier. Many questioned the need for cash, given the widespread acceptance of UPI.

One user remarked, “The idea is good, but the 18 percent GST on delivery charges would ruin everything,” while another joked, “This scheme should be kept a secret.”

Another user lamented, “Why doesn’t Blinkit breathe on our behalf too? We’ve become that lazy,” and another added humorously, “Please, let’s not make India lazy to this extent.”

A user highlighted that similar arrangements exist where customers go to shops, pay extra for their bills, and take back the additional cash for tasks like paying rickshaw pullers.

“Why do you want cash? Cash should be eliminated. We need maximum digitalization,” one user opined, while another noted that acquiring smaller notes can be tricky, especially when UPI isn’t an option.

It’s worth mentioning that similar services are already available, such as platforms like MakeMyTrip that offer foreign currency delivery.

On January 2, Blinkit announced its ambulance service. Dhindsa stated, “We are taking our first step toward addressing the challenge of providing quick and reliable ambulance services in our cities. The first five ambulances will be operational in Gurugram starting today. As we expand, users will soon have the option to book a Basic Life Support (BLS) ambulance through the Blinkit app.”

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