External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has warned that the world could face a major food crisis in the coming months amid disruptions to grain shipments and fertiliser supplies.
Speaking at an event organised by the Asia Society in New York, Jaishankar linked the food security concerns to wider global pressures involving energy, fertilisers and finance. He described these interconnected challenges as part of what he has called the “4F crisis” — food, fuel, fertiliser and finance.
Jaishankar’s remarks came at the end of the UN High-Level Week in New York, where he also discussed global conflicts, supply-chain vulnerabilities, development challenges and the changing nature of international relations.
Jaishankar’s food crisis warning
Jaishankar said disruptions affecting grain exports could put additional pressure on food supplies. He also pointed to fertiliser shortages and the difficulties faced by major suppliers.
He specifically highlighted the importance of grain shipments through the Black Sea region and warned that difficulties in moving supplies could have wider consequences for food security. He said the situation could contribute to a major food crisis in the coming months.
The minister also referred to the possibility of additional pressure from weather conditions, including a strong El Niño, according to reports on his remarks.
What is the 4F crisis?
The “4F crisis” refers to pressures involving food, fuel, fertiliser and finance.
Jaishankar said a large part of the world is dealing with these interconnected challenges. He also pointed to growing vulnerabilities in global supply chains and said progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals was falling behind.
The four areas are closely connected. Disruptions to energy supplies can affect production and transportation, while fertiliser shortages can add pressure to agricultural output. At the same time, geopolitical conflicts can affect the movement of capital and increase financial pressure on developing economies.
Global conflicts adding pressure
Jaishankar linked the wider situation to ongoing conflicts and geopolitical tensions. He said the consequences of major conflicts are no longer confined to the countries directly involved.
He also highlighted concerns over the situation in West Asia and conflicts in Africa, including Sudan. According to Jaishankar, these developments are contributing to an increasingly difficult global environment.
The minister further said conflicts can push capital towards perceived safer markets, creating additional financial pressure on developing countries.
Jaishankar’s message to policymakers
Jaishankar urged governments to consider how their policy decisions affect countries beyond their own borders.
He argued that policymakers should not look only at domestic interests when decisions can have wider international consequences. He said countries should not become so focused on their own interests that they ignore the effects of their decisions elsewhere.
His remarks placed particular emphasis on the difficulties faced by developing countries, which can have less room to absorb simultaneous shocks involving food, energy, fertilisers and finance.
‘Interdependence is the reality’
Jaishankar also spoke about the tension between economic interdependence and geopolitical competition.
“The interdependence is the reality, the competition is the sentiment,” he said while describing what he called a central paradox of the current global environment. He argued that countries remain deeply connected but can increasingly use those connections as sources of leverage.
He also described diplomacy as an “extreme sport”, pointing to the growing risks associated with economic relationships, supply chains and geopolitical competition.
What did Jaishankar say about the global outlook?
Jaishankar described the international environment as increasingly difficult, citing conflicts, economic pressures, supply-chain vulnerabilities and uncertainty surrounding technology.
At the same time, he said he was not pessimistic about the world and noted that countries still have an interest in establishing stable and reliable arrangements.