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Covid third wave likely in August, may peak in October: Report

The Indian researchers have predicted that the country is likely to experience a surge in Covid-19 cases building into a new, though smaller virus wave that may peak in October.

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Delhi Covid cases

The Indian researchers have predicted that the country is likely to experience a surge in Covid-19 cases building into a new, though smaller virus wave that may peak in October.

India will witness a worsening of its Covid-19 outbreak as soon as this month, with the next wave peaking with a minimum of 100,000 infections a day or nearly 150,000 at the maximum, as estimated by the researchers led by Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal at the Indian Institute of Technology in Hyderabad and Kanpur respectively.

Vidyasagar said that the country’s worst-hit states like Kerala and Maharashtra could skew the picture. The upcoming third wave may be far smaller than the second wave that reached a record of 4lakh plus daily cases and thereafter declined sharply. However, the forecast still emphasizes the need for the country to ramp up its vaccination campaign, deploy surveillance methods to catch emerging hotspots and stay observant through genome sequencing given the potential for new variants to emerge.

In October last year, India has first identified the delta strain that has caused the prolonged outbreaks across the world. The experts believe that people becoming complacent and resuming social and business activity is concerning amid the waning infection. During the first outbreak, the country had suffered less damage, however, with the quick resumption of local travel and large-scale festival, it had a devastating second wave that killed as many as 5 million people.

The second wave in March has also led to high levels of natural immunity in the country’s nearly 1.4 billion people. The Indian Council of Medical Research serosurvey has found that two-thirds of Indians above the age of six had been exposed to the coronavirus.

Over the past few days, the southern state of Kerala has been registering roughly half of the new Covid cases, becoming potentially the next hotspot in the country. Paul Kattuman, professor in the Judge Business School at the University of Cambridge, who has developed a Covid-19 tracker for India, has said that the Covid daily cases have grown persistently through July in Kerala and a few smaller north-eastern states. However,  a few states also saw short-lived flare-ups in July which declined relatively quickly, putting the country overall in a steady-state, for now, he said.

Kattuman said that if infection begins to increase in a few large states, the present balance will tip, and cases are likely to begin growing again in the country as a whole. The country might expect to see a slow burn for a duration that can be expected to last till vaccination coverage is sufficiently high to induce herd immunity, he added.

Read Also: After BJP leader’s remark on Shiv Sena Bhavan, Uddhav Thackeray says language of intimidation won’t be tolerated

According to Bloomberg, India India has so far administered 470.3 million vaccine doses, but only 7.6% of the population is fully vaccinated. This also adds up to concerns that the country may not be fully geared for the next wave with such slow uptake. However, the Centre led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has assured that it is now better prepared for further outbreaks and that future waves will not have the same impact on the economy as before.

India News

Assam makes Muslim marriage registration compulsory under new rules

Assam has approved rules for compulsory registration of Muslim marriages, with couples able to register through government marriage registrars.

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The Assam Cabinet has approved the Assam Muslim Marriage Registration (Compulsory) Rules, 2026, establishing the procedure for mandatory registration of Muslim marriages in the state.

The rules operationalise the Assam Compulsory Registration of Muslim Marriages and Divorces Act, 2024, which replaced the earlier Assam Muslim Marriages and Divorces Registration Act, 1935.

Who will register Muslim marriages in Assam?

Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said Muslim couples will now be able to register their marriages with government marriage registrars.

The government had earlier decided that kazis would not register Muslim marriages under the new system, but there was uncertainty over who would carry out the registration. The newly approved rules establish the registration mechanism through marriage registrars.

Sarma said that if the number of applications becomes large, the government could give marriage-registration powers to officers at the panchayat level so that applicants do not face difficulties.

What does the 2024 law say?

The 2024 Act made the registration of Muslim marriages and divorces with the government mandatory. It also prohibits registration of marriages that do not meet the legally prescribed minimum age requirements.

The law specifies the minimum marriage age as 18 years for females and 21 years for males.

The legislation was introduced by the Assam government with the stated objective of curbing child marriage and ending the earlier kazi-based registration system.

Under the previous 1935 law, marriage registration was conducted through kazis and was not compulsory. The earlier system also allowed registration involving minors in certain circumstances, while the new law does not permit such registration.

Registration timeline and penalties

The 2024 legislation provides that Muslim marriages should be registered within 30 days of the marriage. It also provides for registration of divorces within one month of their occurrence.

The law also contains penalties for violations. Producing fake or forged certificates can attract imprisonment of up to two years, a fine of up to Rs. 10,000, or both, along with action under relevant provisions of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita, 2023.

Registering a marriage in violation of the law can attract imprisonment of up to one year and a fine of up to Rs. 50,000.

The Assam Cabinet’s approval of the 2026 rules provides the administrative framework for implementing the compulsory registration system.

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Trump-Xi Summit: Trade, Taiwan and AI among key takeaways

Trade, Taiwan, artificial intelligence and strategic rivalry were among the key issues highlighted during Donald Trump’s summit with Xi Jinping in Washington.

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Trump-Xi Summit

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met at the White House amid discussions on trade, artificial intelligence and the broader strategic relationship between the United States and China.

The summit came as Washington and Beijing continued to navigate disagreements over tariffs, Chinese purchases, rare-earth supplies, technology restrictions and Taiwan.

Here are five key takeaways from the Trump-Xi summit.

Trade truce gets an extension

The United States and China agreed to extend their trade truce by two months, giving both sides additional time for negotiations.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the extension would provide Washington and Beijing more time to work on economic issues. However, several major questions remain part of the negotiations, including tariffs, Chinese purchases, rare-earth supplies and technology restrictions.

Bessent said China was meeting its earlier commitment to buy 25 million tonnes of US soybeans but was behind its pledge to purchase $17 billion worth of other agricultural goods.

US officials have also said that Chinese rare-earth deliveries were falling short.

Taiwan remains a major point of tension

Taiwan was another important issue during the discussions.

Xi Jinping pressed Trump on Taiwan and urged the United States to handle the issue with “prudence”, according to China’s official news agency. Its English-language service also said Xi hoped Washington would oppose Taiwanese independence.

The report noted that the US has traditionally said it does not support Taiwanese independence, while avoiding an explicit statement that it opposes it.

There was no immediate White House readout of the exchange on Taiwan.

Trump and Xi differ on AI

Artificial intelligence was another area where the two leaders expressed different positions.

Trump has said he wants to avoid new AI guardrails and instead rely on the US Department of Justice. He has also maintained that China shares this approach.

Xi, however, said the United States and China have both the capability and responsibility to develop and manage AI for good.

He said AI development should remain under human control and serve people’s well-being.

The contrasting positions underline the importance of AI and technology in the broader US-China relationship.

Strategic rivalry remains a concern

Xi also referred to the “Thucydides Trap”, a theory associated with the risk of conflict between a rising power and an established one.

He argued that competition between the United States and China should be about catching up rather than a contest in which one side must defeat the other.

Xi said the risks could be overcome and called for regular military dialogue and stronger mechanisms to prevent crises.

Trump, meanwhile, highlighted areas where the two countries could cooperate, referring to their shared wartime history and common interests.

Summit also featured elaborate ceremony

The White House visit was accompanied by an elaborate display of ceremony.

The programme included military performances, fighter jets and bombers flying overhead, as well as the recently redesigned South Lawn and a large helipad bearing the presidential seal.

The highly publicised setting contrasted with the unresolved differences between Washington and Beijing on trade, Taiwan, technology and strategic issues.

The summit therefore highlighted both the effort to maintain dialogue between the two powers and the significant issues that remain unresolved.

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 Akhilesh Yadav launches SP’s 2027 UP poll campaign from Rahul Gandhi’s seat

Akhilesh Yadav launched the Samajwadi Party’s 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election campaign from Rae Bareli, represented by Rahul Gandhi in the Lok Sabha.

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Akhilesh Yadav

Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav has formally begun the party’s campaign for the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, launching the outreach from Rae Bareli, the Lok Sabha constituency represented by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi.

Yadav travelled through the area on the party’s newly launched PDA Rath before addressing a public meeting. The campaign vehicle carries the Samajwadi Party’s PDA messaging, referring to its focus on backward classes, Dalits and minorities.

Akhilesh Yadav discusses alliance with Congress

During his Rae Bareli visit, Yadav said the Samajwadi Party would contest the 2027 election as part of an alliance and indicated that seat-sharing would be decided on the basis of winnability.

He said the party would give a seat to whichever alliance partner is considered capable of winning it. The remarks come against the backdrop of the SP and Congress having contested the 2024 Lok Sabha election together in Uttar Pradesh.

Rae Bareli has particular political significance for the Congress as Rahul Gandhi is its sitting Lok Sabha MP. Yadav’s decision to begin the campaign from the constituency therefore placed the SP’s alliance with the Congress in focus.

PDA Rath becomes centrepiece of campaign

The PDA Rath was rolled out as part of the SP’s mobilisation ahead of the 2027 Assembly election. The vehicle prominently carries the party’s PDA messaging, with PDA standing for Pichhde, Dalit and Alpsankhyak.

The campaign is aimed at taking the SP’s social-justice messaging to voters across Uttar Pradesh as the party prepares for the Assembly election.

During the programme, Yadav also attacked the BJP and raised issues including the Election Commission and what he described as the alleged misuse of election machinery. These are political allegations made by the SP chief and should be understood as such.

BJP reacts to Akhilesh Yadav’s campaign

The launch of the PDA Rath comes as political activity intensifies in Uttar Pradesh ahead of the 2027 Assembly election.

The BJP has responded to Yadav’s campaign and his political messaging, while the SP has continued to focus its outreach on the PDA social coalition and its alliance strategy with the Congress.

The 2027 contest is still ahead, with parties using the period before the election to strengthen their organisational networks, public outreach and alliance arrangements.

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