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Covid third wave likely in August, may peak in October: Report

The Indian researchers have predicted that the country is likely to experience a surge in Covid-19 cases building into a new, though smaller virus wave that may peak in October.

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The Indian researchers have predicted that the country is likely to experience a surge in Covid-19 cases building into a new, though smaller virus wave that may peak in October.

India will witness a worsening of its Covid-19 outbreak as soon as this month, with the next wave peaking with a minimum of 100,000 infections a day or nearly 150,000 at the maximum, as estimated by the researchers led by Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal at the Indian Institute of Technology in Hyderabad and Kanpur respectively.

Vidyasagar said that the country’s worst-hit states like Kerala and Maharashtra could skew the picture. The upcoming third wave may be far smaller than the second wave that reached a record of 4lakh plus daily cases and thereafter declined sharply. However, the forecast still emphasizes the need for the country to ramp up its vaccination campaign, deploy surveillance methods to catch emerging hotspots and stay observant through genome sequencing given the potential for new variants to emerge.

In October last year, India has first identified the delta strain that has caused the prolonged outbreaks across the world. The experts believe that people becoming complacent and resuming social and business activity is concerning amid the waning infection. During the first outbreak, the country had suffered less damage, however, with the quick resumption of local travel and large-scale festival, it had a devastating second wave that killed as many as 5 million people.

The second wave in March has also led to high levels of natural immunity in the country’s nearly 1.4 billion people. The Indian Council of Medical Research serosurvey has found that two-thirds of Indians above the age of six had been exposed to the coronavirus.

Over the past few days, the southern state of Kerala has been registering roughly half of the new Covid cases, becoming potentially the next hotspot in the country. Paul Kattuman, professor in the Judge Business School at the University of Cambridge, who has developed a Covid-19 tracker for India, has said that the Covid daily cases have grown persistently through July in Kerala and a few smaller north-eastern states. However,  a few states also saw short-lived flare-ups in July which declined relatively quickly, putting the country overall in a steady-state, for now, he said.

Kattuman said that if infection begins to increase in a few large states, the present balance will tip, and cases are likely to begin growing again in the country as a whole. The country might expect to see a slow burn for a duration that can be expected to last till vaccination coverage is sufficiently high to induce herd immunity, he added.

Read Also: After BJP leader’s remark on Shiv Sena Bhavan, Uddhav Thackeray says language of intimidation won’t be tolerated

According to Bloomberg, India India has so far administered 470.3 million vaccine doses, but only 7.6% of the population is fully vaccinated. This also adds up to concerns that the country may not be fully geared for the next wave with such slow uptake. However, the Centre led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has assured that it is now better prepared for further outbreaks and that future waves will not have the same impact on the economy as before.

India News

Congress, BJP attack Bhagwant Mann over remarks on Punjab blasts

Congress and BJP have jointly criticised Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann after he linked recent blasts near defence sites to political motives, triggering a controversy.

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Bhagwant Mann

A political row has erupted in Punjab after Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann linked recent blast incidents to political motives, drawing sharp criticism from both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The controversy follows two low-intensity explosions reported within a short span of time — one near the Border Security Force (BSF) headquarters in Jalandhar and another close to an army cantonment area in Amritsar. The incidents raised concerns over security, particularly given the sensitive nature of the locations.

In response, Mann suggested that the blasts could be part of a larger political strategy. His remarks triggered a strong backlash, with opposition parties accusing him of politicising a serious security issue.

Leaders from the Congress criticised the Chief Minister’s statement, calling it inappropriate and alleging that such comments undermine the gravity of the situation. They stressed that matters related to national security should be handled with caution and responsibility.

The BJP also joined the criticism, questioning the basis of Mann’s claims and urging the state government to focus on investigation and law enforcement instead of making political allegations.

The developments have led to an unusual moment where both Congress and BJP appear aligned in their criticism of the Aam Aadmi Party-led government in the state.

Meanwhile, the blasts themselves have intensified concerns over safety in border regions, with authorities continuing their investigation into the incidents. No casualties were reported, but the proximity to defence establishments has made the issue particularly sensitive.

The episode has further escalated political tensions in the state, with security and accountability emerging as key points of debate.

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Himanta Biswa Sarma resigns as Assam chief minister, oath ceremony likely after May 11

Himanta Biswa Sarma resigns as Assam Chief Minister after BJP-led NDA’s victory. He will continue as caretaker CM until the new government is sworn in after May 11.

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Himanta sharma

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma resigned from his post on Wednesday, paving the way for the formation of a new government after the BJP-led NDA secured a decisive victory in the 2026 Assembly elections.

Sarma submitted his resignation to Governor Lakshman Prasad Acharya at Lok Bhawan in Guwahati. The Governor accepted the resignation and asked him to continue as the caretaker Chief Minister until the new government takes charge.

The resignation comes after the NDA’s strong electoral performance, where the alliance won a clear majority in the 126-member Assembly, ensuring its return to power for another term.

Oath ceremony expected after May 11

Speaking to reporters after submitting his resignation, Sarma said the swearing-in ceremony for the new government is likely to be held after May 11.

He indicated that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been invited to attend the ceremony but is unavailable until May 11, which has influenced the tentative schedule.

Decision on next chief minister soon

Sources suggest that central observers, including senior BJP leaders, are expected to arrive shortly to oversee the selection of the legislature party leader. The newly elected MLAs will then decide on the next Chief Minister.

Despite the formal resignation, party sources indicate that Sarma is likely to continue in the role for another term, given the BJP’s strong mandate in the state.

The move marks the beginning of the government formation process in Assam following the election results declared earlier this week.

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Rahul Gandhi and Vijay alliance took shape through backchannel talks, early signals from Congress leaders

Congress outreach and political calculations led to Rahul Gandhi and Vijay coming together after the Tamil Nadu 2026 election results.

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The coming together of Rahul Gandhi and actor-politician Vijay in Tamil Nadu after the 2026 Assembly elections was not sudden, but the result of behind-the-scenes political manoeuvring and early signals within the Congress.

According to media reports, some leaders in the Tamil Nadu Congress had already sensed the scale of Vijay’s surge during the campaign, anticipating what was later described as a “wave” in favour of his party.

After the results, where Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) emerged as the single largest party but fell short of a majority, communication channels between the Congress leadership and Vijay quickly became active.

A key moment in this evolving political equation was a phone call from Rahul Gandhi to Vijay, congratulating him on the party’s strong performance. The conversation was seen as more than a courtesy, signalling the possibility of cooperation at a time when government formation required additional support.

Reports indicate that discussions within Congress weighed the political benefits of supporting Vijay, especially given the shifting dynamics in the state where traditional dominance by major Dravidian parties has been challenged.

With TVK needing allies to cross the majority mark, Congress emerged as a potential partner, leading to a broader political realignment in the state. This development also triggered tensions within opposition alliances, highlighting the strategic importance of the decision.

The evolving partnership reflects a mix of electoral pragmatism and changing voter sentiment, particularly the growing influence of younger voters, which leaders acknowledged as a key factor in the election outcome.

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