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Demonetisation is an “also-ran” measure: RBI

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9 years ago

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Reserve Bank of India New Delhi. Photo: UNI

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]For the central bank, GST, insolvency and benami laws are more substantial moves to check black money[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]By Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its half-yearly Financial Stability Report (FSR), released on December 29, 2016, has surprisingly moved the demonetization drive of the Modi government to one of the many initiatives. It is not at the top of the list though it has dominated public debate on the streets and in the media.

The central bank listed the bankruptcy law and the Goods and Service Tax (GST) as the two most important factors which would influence the performance of the economy. On demonetisation, the RBI said: “Other initiatives such as the withdrawal of legal tender status of specified bank notes (SBNs) could potentially transform the domestic economy.”

It would appear that Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and other ministers and BJP spokespersons would not trumpet demonetisation as the most important decision of the two-and-a-half-year-old BJP-led NDA government.

The RBI has noted several measures taken by the government to tackle the challenge of black money:  “…the government’s resolve to take on the shadow economy through various measures are expected to deliver net direct and collateral benefits to the economy in the long run, and will also improve India’s international standing. Such measures include, among others, the income disclosure scheme, setting up of a Special Investigation Team (SIT), enacting a law regarding undisclosed foreign income and assets, amending the Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement between India and Mauritius and India and Cyprus, reaching an understanding with Switzerland for getting information on bank accounts held by Indians and amending the Benami Transactions Act. Further, the initiatives for encouraging the use of non-cash and digital payments and withdrawal of legal tender status of specified bank notes (SBNs), accompanied by changes in income tax rules are expected to result in a shift away from the significant dependence of Indian economy on cash-based transactions….”

It is evident that the government’s boast and its attempt to spread the message that demonetisation was a bold and firm response to tackle black money and the “shadow economy” does not find favour with the central bank. It does not seem to consider demonetisation as the radical move that the Prime Minister and his colleagues have tried to project it as.

Addressing the issue of “shadow economy”, the FSR notes that it is a worldwide phenomenon and that it is difficult to define it in precise terms. It says, “The term shadow economy may refer to black economy or black money. There is no uniform definition of black money in economic theory and various other terms such as ‘unaccounted income’, ‘black income’, ‘dirty money’, ‘black wealth’, ‘underground wealth’, ‘black economy’, ‘parallel economy’ are also used in this regard. In the Indian context, the White Paper on Black Money, released by Department of Revenue, Ministry of Finance in 2002 adopted a definition of black money “as assets or resources that have neither been reported to the public authorities at the time of their generation nor disclosed at any point of time during their possession.”

And it notes, “In recent literature and usage, shadow economy is also referred to as System D. Though estimating the size of the shadow economy is challenging, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) half of the world’s workers were employed in the shadow economy in 2009 (this number is likely to grow to two-thirds by 2020).”

Compared to the populist twist that the government sought to give and make it appear that demonetisation was the magic wand that would conjure away black money, the FSR lays bare the complexity of the problem. It explains in clear language the connection between shadow economy, employment and tax rates. It says, “One of the many problems with the shadow economy is that it renders official statistics unreliable and severely impacts policy formulations by governments. Besides, the loss of tax revenues may force governments to hike tax rates, which in turn may further encourage greater activity in the shadow economy. As per some analyses, in the US a 1 percentage point increase in personal income tax rates, other things being equal, tends to increase the size of the shadow economy by 1.4 percentage points. Similarly, a 1 point increase in a regulation index (ranging from 1 to 5) corresponds to a 10 per cent increase in the shadow economy. There is also evidence in some economies of dynamic mobility between the official and shadow economies depending on the relative ‘net’ wage levels; this in turn is an indication of the influence of tax rates and rigidities in labour markets on the size of the official versus shadow economies.”

And it gives its clear view as to the best way of tackling shadow economy, black money et al, and it does not suggest even in an oblique manner that demonetization is the solution, or even that it is one of the solutions. It says, “While the impact of the shadow economy on direct tax revenues is a concern, its role in contributing to indirect taxes and economic growth is debatable. The best way to contain the shadow economy is to improve governance and quality of public services, avoid excessive regulations, impose stringent penalties and have a compatible tax structure.”[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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BJP-led Mahayuti surges ahead in BMC polls as Thackerays lose Mumbai stronghold

The BJP-led alliance has taken a strong lead in the BMC elections, signalling a major political shift in Mumbai as counting continues across Maharashtra.

Published

11 mins ago

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January 16, 2026

By

shinde and fadnavis

The BJP-led alliance is heading towards a decisive victory in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, dealing a major blow to the Thackeray cousins’ long-standing control over Mumbai’s civic administration. Early trends from the ongoing vote count show the ruling alliance opening a clear lead in the country’s richest municipal body.

With results still being tallied, the BJP-led bloc is ahead in 115 wards of the BMC. Of these, the BJP is leading in 86 wards, while Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena has an edge in 29 wards.

In contrast, the Thackeray cousins appear to be struggling to retain their grip on the civic body they once dominated for decades. Together, they are leading in 77 wards, with Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) ahead in 71 wards and Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) leading in six.

High-stakes election after nine-year gap

The BMC elections were held after a nine-year gap, following a four-year delay, making the contest one of the most closely watched civic polls in Maharashtra. Over 1,700 candidates were in the fray for 227 seats in Mumbai alone. The BMC’s annual budget exceeds Rs 74,400 crore, underscoring the political and financial significance of the results.

In the 2017 elections, the undivided Shiv Sena, which then included Eknath Shinde, had retained control of the BMC, continuing its decades-long dominance.

BJP ahead across Maharashtra civic bodies

The BJP’s strong showing is not limited to Mumbai. Across 29 municipal corporations in Maharashtra, early trends indicate that the party is leading overall. Combined figures show the BJP ahead in 909 wards, while its ally, the Shinde-led Shiv Sena, is leading in 237 wards.

In the party-wise standings, the Congress is placed third with leads in 179 seats, largely from Bhiwandi-Nizampur, Nagpur and Kolhapur. The Shiv Sena (UBT) follows with 118 seats, closely trailed by Ajit Pawar’s NCP, which is leading in 112 wards.

Pune also tilts towards BJP

Pune has emerged as another key battleground, especially as rival factions of the Nationalist Congress Party, led by Ajit Pawar and Sharad Pawar, joined hands for the civic polls. Despite the alliance, the BJP is leading in 52 seats in Pune, while the combined NCP factions are ahead in seven seats.

Large-scale polling across the state

Polling for 2,869 seats across 893 wards in the 29 civic bodies was held on Thursday. Around 3.48 crore voters were eligible to cast their ballots, deciding the political fate of 15,931 candidates, including those contesting in Mumbai.

Besides Mumbai and Pune, counting is underway in several other municipal corporations, including Navi Mumbai, Thane, Kalyan-Dombivli, Nagpur, Nashik, Pimpri-Chinchwad, Vasai-Virar, Mira-Bhayandar, Solapur, Kolhapur and Aurangabad, among others.

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International Bihar and Purvanchal Festival to be held in Sydney on March 22

Praveen Kumar reiterated, “The land of Bihar produces gold. Such a region cannot remain poor. What is needed is collective effort, work in the right direction, and the creation of opportunities for the people.”

Published

56 mins ago

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January 16, 2026

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With the objective of providing a new global direction to development, investment, and opportunities in Bihar and the Purvanchal region, the International Bihar and Purvanchal Festival will be organised on March 22, 2026, in Sydney, Australia. This was announced by Praveen Kumar, the chief organiser of the event, during a press conference held in Patna on January 15.

Praveen Kumar said several prominent personalities from India and abroad, along with representatives from industry, policymakers, and members of the Indian diaspora, will participate in the Sydney event.

On this platform, the vision of a “Developed Bihar and Purvanchal” will be formally launched, and a concrete roadmap for Bihar’s overall development will be deliberated upon. He said the festival is not merely a cultural event but a global platform to mobilise international cooperation, investment, and policy-level support for Bihar.

“We will extend support at every level for the development of Bihar and Purvanchal and create opportunities that enable better utilisation of local talent and resources,” Praveen Kumar said.

Referring to his earlier remarks made during a podcast, Praveen Kumar reiterated, “The land of Bihar produces gold. Such a region cannot remain poor. What is needed is collective effort, work in the right direction, and the creation of opportunities for the people.”

It was also informed during the press conference that the Sydney event will feature special sessions on investment, education, skill development, culture, and diaspora engagement for Bihar. The objective is to highlight that Bihar is not only rich in potential but also capable of providing leadership on the global stage.

According to the organisers, the festival will prove to be a significant step towards giving Bihar a new international identity.

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PM Modi urges people to read Tirukkural on Thiruvalluvar Day

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thiruvalluvar Day appealed to people to read the Tirukkural, calling it a reflection of the humane and harmonious ideals of Tamil philosopher-poet Thiruvalluvar.

Published

6 hours ago

on

January 16, 2026

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pm modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday urged people across the country to read the Tirukkural, highlighting its enduring relevance and the intellectual legacy of Tamil philosopher-poet Thiruvalluvar.

Marking Thiruvalluvar Day, which coincides with the Pongal celebrations every year, the prime minister paid tribute to the revered scholar, describing him as a symbol of harmony, compassion and Tamil cultural excellence.

In a message shared on social media platform X, Modi said Thiruvalluvar’s works and ideals continue to inspire countless people even today. He noted that the philosopher envisioned a society rooted in compassion and balance.

The prime minister encouraged citizens to engage with the Tirukkural, a classical Tamil text that deals with various aspects of human life, ethics and governance, calling it a window into the profound intellect of Thiruvalluvar.

Thiruvalluvar Day is observed annually to honour the philosopher-poet, whose literary contributions remain central to Tamil culture and thought.

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