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Indian exporters may face higher tariff under Trump’s America First agenda

The US stands as India’s largest trading partner, with annual trade exceeding $190 billion.

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With Donald Trump all set to become the 47th President of the United States, Indian exporters may face high customs duties on products such as automobiles, textiles, and pharmaceuticals if the new administration pursues its “America First” agenda, according to trade experts.

The experts have also indicated that Trump might tighten H-1B visa regulations, which could raise costs and hinder growth for Indian IT companies. With over 80 per cent of India’s IT export revenues stemming from the US, these changes could make the sector vulnerable to shifts in visa policy.

The US stands as India’s largest trading partner, with annual trade exceeding $190 billion.

Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), said that Trump might extend tariffs beyond China to include India and other nations, citing Trump’s earlier statement that India is a large tariff abuser and his October 2020 statement labeling the country as the tariff king. These comments hint at the likelihood of more challenging trade negotiations during Trump’s second term.

“His America First strategy is expected to advocate for protective measures, including reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods, which could hinder key exports such as automobiles, textiles, and pharmaceuticals, diminishing their competitiveness in the US market,” Srivastava stated.

However, he also said that a tougher US policy towards China could potentially open up new markets for Indian exporters.

The bilateral trade in goods between the two countries stood at $120 billion in 2023-24 as against $129.4 billion in 2022-23.

A GTRI report had earlier stated that according to WTO’s World Tariff Profiles 2023, the US also imposes high duties on items like dairy products (188 per cent), Fruits and vegetables (132 per cent), cereals and food preparations (193 per cent), oilseeds, fats and oils (164 per cent), beverages and tobacco (150 per cent).

International trade expert Biswajit Dhar remarked that Trump is likely to increase tariffs across different sectors to fulfill his MAGA (Make America Great Again) mandate. “With Trump’s return to power, we are headed toward a new era of protectionism,” Dhar predicted, pointing out that sectors such as electronics might be adversely affected.

Furthermore, Dhar raised concerns about the future of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF), emphasising, based on Trump’s past decision to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), there may be uncertainty surrounding IPEF’s stability. Launched on May 23, 2022, the 14-nation bloc could face challenges ahead.

Ajay Sahai, Director General of the Federation of Indian Export Organizations (FIEO), stated, “While we might see Trump advocating for more balanced trade, disputes around tariffs are likely to arise amid rising protectionist trends and stricter immigration policies.”

Agneshwar Sen, Partner for Tax and Economic Policy (International Trade) at EY India, said that the US might strategically implement high tariffs to promote domestic manufacturing and adjust existing supply chains, potentially leading to increased tariffs on Indian exports such as textiles, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and engineering products.

“India may need to look for alternative markets, which would be challenging, or consider retaliatory tariffs on US exports. Alternatively, we should prepare for a trade deal that is appealing to the US, not only protecting our existing interests but also facilitating new opportunities,” Sen noted.

Additionally, Srivastava pointed out that Trump’s concerns regarding outsourcing could result in policy changes affecting IT exports. H-1B visa regulations are crucial for facilitating the movement of skilled IT professionals from India. “A stricter immigration approach from Trump could potentially alter visa rules, thereby raising costs for Indian IT companies,” he explained, PTI reported.

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Akhilesh Yadav says BJP completely bent on dictatorship after UP govt extends ban on outsiders entry into Sambhal

He said that this government is fearful, unwilling to allow the truth to surface, and apprehensive about public outrage.

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Hours after the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath-led government extended the ban on the entry of outsiders into Sambhal till December 10, Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav on Saturday said that the BJP is completely bent on dictatorship and it does not believe in democracy.

“Injustice and atrocities are at their peak in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP does not believe in democracy. There is an emergency-like situation in Uttar Pradesh,” Yadav said in a release shared by the party on X.

The former chief minister said imposing a ban shows the failure of the BJP government, administration and management. Asserting that he said if the government had imposed such a ban earlier on “those who thought of causing riots and made people raise frenzied slogans”, the harmony and peace in Sambhal would not have been disturbed.

“It is noteworthy that the District Magistrate of Sambhal, in his order (IPC Section 163), has prohibited the entry of any outsider, other social organization and public representative within the boundary of Sambhal district without permission till 10.12.2024,” the statement read.

The Samajwadi Party chief slammed the UP government for stopping a 15-member delegation from entering violence-affected Sambhal, claiming that the BJP government seeks to conceal the injustices and atrocities it has perpetrated there.

He said that this government is fearful, unwilling to allow the truth to surface, and apprehensive about public outrage.

Yadav accused the government of instructing the police to confine Opposition leaders, including prominent leaders from the Samajwadi Party, to their homes.

He questioned why prominent leaders such as Mata Prasad Pandey, Lal Bihari Yadav, Shyam Lal Pal, and Ravidas Mehrotra were barred from leaving their residences when the restrictions were reportedly limited to Sambhal district.

“Has the BJP government declared a state of emergency across the entire state? The Leader of the Opposition and the State President of the Samajwadi Party couldn’t even reach the party office,” he stated.

“Such house arrest of public representatives poses a serious threat to democracy. Since the BJP took power, it has been systematically undermining democracy and the Constitution,” Yadav added.

The SP chief expressed his displeasure regarding the obstruction faced by the Samajwadi Party delegation. He suggested that similar to how the BJP frequently reshuffles its cabinet, there should be a complete overhaul of the administrative body in Sambhal in response to allegations of negligence, including accountability for any deaths that occurred.

Announcing that the Samajwadi Party would provide financial aid of Rs 5 lakh to each family of the innocent victims of the Sambhal incident, the party has demanded that the BJP government grant Rs 25 lakh in compensation to the families of those killed in the violence.

Furthermore, Yadav asserted that justice is anticipated solely from the President and the Supreme Court, insisting that those who threaten the unity and peace of the nation be held accountable.

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Rahul Gandhi says PM Modi biased towards Adani, discriminating against Wayanad landslide victims

He said: “This is the atmosphere in which we are operating. It is the feelings that people have toward us that give us confidence and protect us.”

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Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on Saturday accused Prime Minister Narendra Modi of being biased towards industrialist Gautam Adani and of discriminating against Wayanad landslides victims by not providing them the due support.

In a joint public meeting with sister Priyanka in Wayanad after her massive victory in the Lok Sabha byelection, Rahul alleged that PM Modi was treating Adani differently from the people of India, despite his indictment in the US, even though the Constitution says everyone should be treated equally.

Hitting out at PM Modi, Rahul claimed that the “PM says it does not matter if Adani has been indicted in the US and called a criminal there, in India we will not indict him”.

Continuing his allegations against the prime minister, the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha said Modi discriminates against the people of Wayanad and he was not willing to provide them the support that they were due.

He said: “This is the atmosphere in which we are operating. It is the feelings that people have toward us that give us confidence and protect us.”

After paying tribute to the victims of the landslides, Rahul said his party and the UDF are standing with the people who lost family members, property and suffered in the tragedy.

He said unfortunately his party is not in the government and therefore they cannot do what a government can do. “So, I told my sister and (AICC general secretary) K C Venugopal that every member of the Congress and the UDF should put pressure on the government of Kerala to help the victims of the landslides,” he added.

Rahul said Priyanka’s win from the Wayanad seat indicates that the people have placed their faith and trust in them to represent the hill constituency in the Parliament. He also expressed confidence that the Congress-led opposition will defeat the ideology of the BJP which behaves arrogantly and allegedly spreads hate and divisiveness.

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Congress slams PM Modi over sinking GDP rate, says slowdown will have severe consequences

“This is the ultimate root cause for India’s growth slowdown, and multiple sources of data have now confirmed this wage stagnation,” Ramesh stated.

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The Congress on Saturday slammed the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led central government over the sinking Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate and said stagnating real wages as the fundamental reason behind it.

Sharing the party statement on the recent data from a research firm on X, Congress general secretary in-charge communication Jairam Ramesh hit out at PM Modi for being willfully blind to the causes of this sharp slowdown.

On India’s economic growth slowing to a near two-year low, Ramesh said the country’s medium and long-term economic potential is eroding rapidly.

The Congress leader asked how long will the grim reality of stagnant wages for crores of workers continue to be ignored.

GDP growth figures released last evening for July-September 2024 are much worse than anticipated, with India recording a measly 5.4% growth and consumption similarly growing by an unimpressive 6%, Ramesh said.

He said the “non-biological” PM and his cheerleaders were wilfully blind to the causes of this sharp slowdown, but, he added a new report on ‘Labour Dynamics of Indian States’ released by a leading Mumbai-based financial information services company, India Ratings and Research, on the 26th of November 2024 reveals its real cause: stagnant wages.

Ramesh noted that the report uses Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) data to show that overall real wage growth at the national level has been flat at 0.01% over the last five years.

In fact, the workers in Haryana, Assam and Uttar Pradesh have seen their real wages decline in the same period, he pointed out.

This is hardly the exception, nearly every piece of evidence points to this same damning conclusion that the average Indian can buy less today than they could 10 years ago, Ramesh said.

“This is the ultimate root cause for India’s growth slowdown, and multiple sources of data have now confirmed this wage stagnation,” Ramesh stated.

Citing the Labour Bureau’s Wage Rate Index, he said real wages for the labourers stagnated between 2014-2023 and in fact declined between 2019-2024.

Ramesh further cited the Ministry of Agriculture’s Agricultural Statistics and said that under former prime minister Manmohan Singh, real wages for agricultural labourers grew at 6.8% each year.

“Under Narendra Modi, real wages for agricultural labourers declined by minus 1.3% each year,” he said.

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