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Is India’s optimism over Iran’s Chabahar port grossly misplaced?

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Chabahar-challenge

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]By Seema Guha

US President Donald Trump’s hardline strategy against Iran could severely impact India’s hopes of enhancing trade and commerce through the Chabahar port

The first shipment of wheat from India was sent last week to the Iran’s Chabahar port and then onwards by rail and road to Afghanistan. This marks New Delhi’s attempt to avoid Pakistan, which does not allow Indian goods to transit its territory.

The fact that the long delayed project is at last taking shape, has led to general euphoria on all sides and a somewhat misplaced expectation of steadily increasing the volumes on this route. The grain sent out to Afghanistan from a port in Gujarat was a gift from the people of India to the citizens of Afghanistan.

“The shipment of wheat is a landmark moment as it will pave the way for operationalisation of the Chabahar port as an alternative, reliable and robust connectivity for Afghanistan. It will open up new opportunities for trade and transit from and to Afghanistan and enhance trade and commerce between the three countries (India, Iran and Afghanistan) and the wider region,” the statement released by the ministry of external affairs noted. But this is an unrealistic and overtly optimistic assumption.

With US President Donald Trump ready to tear up the landmark nuclear agreement signed in 2015, chances of fresh sanctions being slapped on Iran by the US Congress are very high. Once this happens it will be difficult for both India and Afghanistan not to heed US pressure.

Though Delhi as a rule does not pay heed to sanctions, unless they are mandated by the UN Security Council, the US has found a way to deal with this. From past experience it has learnt how best to target companies doing business with Iran. To make the sanctions effective, the US had earlier decreed that any company doing business with Iran cannot operate in the US. It cannot also have any dealings with American financial institutions. With America still the world’s largest economy and its financial clout spread across the world, it is difficult for any company to continue dealing with Iran. No company or government is in a position to turn its back on the US, unless there are political motivations.

For India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, bent to take relations with the US to a new unprecedented height, the question of not supporting US will not arise. The stakes are too high, more so because Washington is now promising to deliver high-tech defence technology so long denied to India.

One of Donald Trump’s election promises was to walk out of the Obama sponsored Iran nuclear deal. He has already taken the first step in this direction, by refusing to certify Iran’s compliance to the agreement. Though the International Atomic Energy Agency, which is on the ground in Iran, inspecting every aspect of the country’s nuclear program, had certified three times that Tehran has stuck to the agreement, Trump refused to certify it. Now he has asked the US Congress to come up with fresh ideas to make the deal much more stringent and slap nuclear sanctions against Iran.

Despite the fact that other countries, who were part of the agreement like France, Germany, UK, Russia, China as well as the EU are lobbying hard to keep the agreement intact, the US remains adamant. President Trump has also warned that if lawmakers refuse to act, he has the executive powers to enforce his will. So despite the fact that European countries, China and Russia are all opposed to Trump’s move, he can well wreck the deal and impose fresh sanctions on Iran.

This is why despite India’s optimism, using Chabahar for growing trade with Afghanistan seems doomed to fail. This, so long as Donald Trump continues to be adamant. Chances of Trump changing his views are remote. More so, because he is pleasing Saudi Arabia, UAE and other Sunni powers worried about Iran assuming its rightful place in the world.

The idea of using the Iranian port for trade with Afghanistan took shape in 2003, during Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s term as prime minister. Thanks to crippling sanctions slapped by the US on trading with Iran, the project never had a chance to take off. When sanctions were lifted after the nuclear agreement another bilateral agreement was signed between India and Iran for the development of both the port and railway track to transport the goods to Afghanistan.

India has already constructed a road from Delaram in Afghanistan to Zaranj at the Iran-Afghanistan border at the cost of $134 million. This road would help to carry goods by road from the Iranian border to different destinations in Afghanistan.

Developing an alternative trade route as not to be held hostage by Pakistan was a good idea. But the US-Iran relations have hit this project hard. Earlier it was delayed because of sanctions and now it is unlikely to take off as relations between the US and Iran deteriorate.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

Deve Gowda hits back at Kharge’s married PM jibe, calls congress tie-up abusive relationship

HD Deve Gowda rebuts Mallikarjun Kharge’s remarks, saying JD(S) did not desert Congress and was forced to exit an “abusive” alliance.

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Former Prime Minister H. D. Deve Gowda has responded sharply to remarks made by Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge in the Rajya Sabha, rejecting the suggestion that he chose to align with Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the Congress.

War of words in rajya sabha

During his farewell speech in the Upper House, Kharge made a light-hearted remark about Deve Gowda’s political journey, saying he had “dated” the Congress but ultimately “married” Modi. The comment drew laughter across the House, including from the Prime Minister, who was present at the time.

Kharge also noted his long association with Deve Gowda, saying he had known him for over five decades but was unsure why the Janata Dal (Secular) leader shifted alliances.

Deve gowda’s ‘forced marriage’ reply

In a statement issued later, Deve Gowda said he was not present in the House when the comment was made as he had left for Bengaluru for Ugadi celebrations. Responding in similar metaphorical language, he said his association with the Congress was a “forced marriage” that eventually turned into an “abusive relationship.”

He asserted that his party did not leave the Congress alliance, but was instead compelled to move on after being sidelined.

Reference to 2018 karnataka alliance

Deve Gowda also revisited the 2018 Karnataka political developments, stating that the Congress leadership, including Ghulam Nabi Azad, had proposed his son H. D. Kumaraswamy as Chief Minister. He claimed he had instead suggested Kharge’s name, in the presence of leaders like Siddaramaiah.

Despite this, Kumaraswamy eventually took charge as Chief Minister after the Congress-JD(S) alliance formed the government.

Alliance collapse and aftermath

The coalition government collapsed in 2019 after multiple MLAs from both parties defected, leading to the fall of the government. Deve Gowda alleged that the Congress failed to act against those responsible for triggering the defections.

He maintained that the breakdown of the alliance left JD(S) with no option but to seek a “more stable” political partnership later.

Political context

Deve Gowda briefly served as Prime Minister following the 1996 Lok Sabha elections, heading a United Front government supported by the Congress. His party later allied with the Congress in Karnataka in 2018 before parting ways after the coalition government’s collapse.

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India News

Markets tumble as oil crosses $110, sensex falls over 1,900 points

Markets opened sharply lower with Sensex plunging over 1,900 points as crude oil crossed $110 and global factors weighed on sentiment.

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Sensex

Indian stock markets opened sharply lower on Thursday, snapping a three-session gaining streak, as rising global crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions weighed heavily on investor sentiment.

Benchmark indices witnessed a gap-down opening, with the Sensex plunging over 1,900 points at the open, while the Nifty dropped more than 450 points. The decline follows reports of Iran targeting key energy infrastructure in the Gulf region, pushing Brent crude oil prices above the $110 per barrel mark.

At around 9:17 AM, the Sensex was trading at 75,235.05, down by 1,469.08 points. Meanwhile, the Nifty stood at 23,291.85, slipping 485.95 points.

Oil spike, global cues pressure equities

The surge in crude oil prices is a major concern for Indian markets, as higher oil costs can widen the current account deficit and fuel inflation. This often leads to cautious investor behaviour and triggers selling in equities.

Adding to the negative sentiment, the US Federal Reserve maintained its interest rates at current levels. Stable rates in the US tend to keep bond yields attractive, which can result in foreign institutional investors (FIIs) pulling money out of emerging markets like India.

Early indicators had already pointed to a weak start. GIFT Nifty futures were trading at 23,324, down 453 points, signalling a negative opening for domestic indices.

Expert view signals sectoral shift

According to InvestorAi’s strategic outlook, there has been a noticeable shift in market positioning towards IT large-cap stocks. The move reflects a preference for companies with stable earnings visibility, especially those earning in dollars amid a weakening rupee.

The analysis highlights that IT exporters benefit from currency depreciation, as revenues are largely dollar-denominated while costs remain in rupees. However, the outlook remains sensitive to crude prices. A sustained rise above $110 could force policy tightening and impact valuations.

Key stocks in focus

Among the top conviction picks highlighted:

  • Mphasis seen as a strong mid-cap IT play with AI and cloud exposure
  • Wipro emerging as a turnaround candidate with improving margins
  • TCS acting as a sector bellwether reflecting broader IT trends
  • PB Fintech offering a high-margin digital growth story
  • KEI Industries representing domestic infrastructure and electrification demand

What investors should watch

Market participants are closely tracking the rupee’s movement against the US dollar. A sustained breach beyond 90.5–91 levels could further support IT stocks but may also signal broader macroeconomic stress.

Additionally, crude oil prices and geopolitical developments will remain key triggers for market direction in the near term.

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Delhi-NCR sees second spell of rain and thunderstorms in four days

Delhi-NCR experienced another spell of rain and thunderstorms on March 18, with IMD forecasting more showers over the next few days.

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Delhi and parts of the National Capital Region witnessed another spell of rain, thunderstorms, and strong winds on Wednesday evening, marking the second such weather event in the past four days.

The sudden change brought relief from unusually high temperatures recorded earlier this month. According to officials, the temperature at Safdarjung — the city’s base weather station — was recorded at 24 degrees Celsius at 7 pm.

The India Meteorological Department had earlier issued an alert predicting light to moderate rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning on March 18. Several areas across the capital experienced gusty winds along with brief but intense showers.

More rain likely over next two days

The weather department has forecast partly cloudy skies for March 19 and 20, with chances of light rain or thundershowers occurring once or twice during the day. On March 21, skies are expected to remain cloudy with the possibility of light showers continuing.

Conditions are likely to stabilise from March 23 onwards, with forecasts indicating a return to partly cloudy to clear skies across the region.

Weather activity across India to intensify

The IMD has also indicated widespread weather activity across multiple regions of the country in the coming days. Rainfall is expected to intensify in several states, accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds.

In the northeastern region, heavy rainfall is likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Meghalaya during the early part of the week.

Meanwhile, the western Himalayan region is also set to witness a shift in weather patterns. Himachal Pradesh is likely to receive heavy rainfall on March 19 and 20, while Uttarakhand and Jammu and Kashmir may experience heavy showers around March 20.

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