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El Nino, monsoon and India’s food security: How they are linked

Fortunately enough for the last 4 years consecutively, from 2019 to 2022, the country enjoyed four consecutive years of good monsoons.

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Agriculture

India’s food security, especially post the Green Revolution, has been majorly taken care of by Punjab and Haryana.

But unfortunately, the two states had been witnessing a fallout in their contribution to assuring that India doesn’t go to bed empty stomachs. The fact that in the last two decades, the combined share of two states in total wheat procurement by the Central foodgrain pool for the Public Distribution System has fallen from 90% or even more to hardly 70%, scares the country’s food security. And to catalyse the insecurity, the data on the contribution of rice from two states, showing a decline from 43-44% to 28-29%, is there.

However, after bearing a loss of falling contribution to central procurement by almost 50%, their contribution has now again gone up in the last two years to 70-74%, reaffirming their image as reliable and all-weather contributors to national food security.

The reason for the falling contribution was El Niño. During this event, due to the weakening of trade winds, warm water gets pushed back to the east, toward the west coast of the Americas. This phenomenon releases more heat into the atmosphere, creating more wet and more warm air.

El Nino, if we go by past data, has been resulting in monsoon failures in India. Thus, the El Nino years, to mention, 2014, 2015, and 2018 recorded subnormal rainfall. Fortunately enough for the last 4 years consecutively, from 2019 to 2022, the country enjoyed four consecutive years of good monsoons.

The ramification of a subnormal monsoon would be on the Kharif crops, which are sowed in May and harvested in October. Rice may bear the impact more, as it is a highly water-intensive crop and it requires at least 25 irrigations in the absence of rain. Moreover, if El Niño gets stronger, the impact could even extend to the rabi, a winter-spring crop. These, especially wheat, are grown using groundwater and the water from dam reservoirs that are recharged or refilled by the monsoon water. A subnormal monsoon can, hence, threaten national food security, by hitting both rice and wheat production.

Punjab and Haryana which assures access to irrigation, hold the rope of food security’s responsibility. In 2022-23 Punjab solely cultivated paddy, rice with husk, on 31.67 lakh hectares which also includes 4.94 lakh hectares under basmati varieties.

An official from Punjab’s agriculture department even claimed that paddy yields in Punjab indeed tilt to go up during weak monsoon years. That’s because farmers then make use of groundwater only and irrigation then works according to their own plans. Their worries are rather more about the monsoon season prolonging and raining when it’s the harvesting period of crops.

India News

PM Modi assures no discrimination in women’s quota, delimitation debate intensifies in Parliament

PM Narendra Modi has assured that women’s reservation will be implemented without discrimination, amid a heated debate over delimitation in Parliament.

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PM modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has assured that there will be no discrimination in the implementation of women’s reservation, as Parliament witnessed a sharp debate over the proposed linkage between the quota and delimitation exercise.

During the ongoing special session, the government reiterated its commitment to ensuring fair representation while addressing concerns raised by opposition parties regarding the timing and structure of the legislation.

The proposed framework aims to reserve 33 percent of seats for women in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies. However, its implementation is tied to a fresh delimitation exercise, which is expected after the next census.

Opposition questions timing and intent

Opposition leaders have raised concerns that linking the women’s quota to delimitation could delay its implementation. They argue that the process of redrawing constituencies may push the actual rollout further into the future.

The issue has triggered a broader political confrontation, with multiple parties questioning whether the move could alter representation across states.

Some critics have also alleged that the delimitation exercise could disproportionately benefit certain regions based on population, a charge the government has rejected.

Government reiterates commitment to fair implementation

Responding to these concerns, the Centre has maintained that the reforms are necessary to ensure accurate and updated representation based on population data.

Leaders from the ruling side have repeatedly emphasized that the process will be carried out transparently and without bias. The assurance that there will be “no discrimination” is aimed at addressing fears among states and opposition parties.

The debate marks a key moment in Parliament, with both sides engaging in intense exchanges over one of the most significant electoral reforms in recent years.

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Give all tickets to Muslim women, Amit Shah says, attacking Akhilesh Yadav on sub-quota demand

A sharp exchange between Amit Shah and Akhilesh Yadav in Parliament over sub-quota for Muslim women highlights key divisions on women’s reservation implementation.

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A heated exchange broke out in Parliament during discussions on the women’s reservation framework, with Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav locking horns over the demand for a sub-quota for Muslim women.

The debate unfolded as the government pushed forward key legislative measures to implement 33% reservation for women in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies.

Akhilesh Yadav argued that the proposed reservation must ensure representation for women from marginalised communities, including Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Muslim women. He said that without such provisions, large sections could remain excluded from political participation.

He also questioned the timing of the bill, alleging that the Centre was avoiding a caste census. According to him, a census would lead to renewed demands for caste-based reservations, which the government is reluctant to address.

Government rejects religion-based quota

Responding to the demand, Amit Shah made it clear that reservation based on religion is not permitted under the Constitution.

He stated that any proposal to provide quota to Muslims on religious grounds would be unconstitutional, firmly rejecting the idea of a separate sub-quota for Muslim women within the broader reservation framework.

The government has maintained that the existing framework already includes provisions for Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST) women within the overall reservation structure.

Wider political divide over implementation

The issue of sub-categorisation within the women’s quota has emerged as a major flashpoint, even as most opposition parties broadly support the idea of women’s reservation.

Samajwadi Party leaders reiterated that their support for the bill depends on inclusion of OBC and minority women, while the government continues to defend its constitutional position.

The debate is part of a broader discussion during the special Parliament session, where multiple bills linked to delimitation and implementation of the women’s quota are being taken up.

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No state will lose a seat, Centre assures as delimitation debate takes centre stage in Parliament

Parliament’s special session begins with key focus on implementing women’s reservation and delimitation, setting the stage for major electoral changes.

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Parliament

A special session of Parliament commenced on Thursday, with the Centre set to take up crucial legislation related to women’s reservation and delimitation of constituencies. The session, scheduled over three days, is expected to witness intense debate as the government pushes forward its legislative agenda.

At the centre of discussions is the proposal to operationalise the women’s reservation law, which seeks to allocate 33 percent of seats in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies to women. The law, passed earlier, requires enabling provisions before it can be implemented.

The rollout of the reservation is closely tied to the delimitation exercise — a process that redraws parliamentary constituencies based on updated population data. The implementation is expected only after the next census and delimitation process are completed.

The government is aiming to put in place the framework so that the reservation can be enforced in future elections, likely around 2029.

Delimitation and numbers at play

Delimitation is a key aspect of the proposed changes, as it will determine how seats are redistributed and which constituencies are reserved. The exercise is expected to reflect population shifts and may also involve an increase in the total number of Lok Sabha seats.

This linkage has made the issue politically sensitive, with several opposition parties backing women’s reservation in principle but raising concerns over how and when delimitation will be carried out.

Political reactions and expected debate

The session is likely to see sharp exchanges between the government and opposition. While there is broad agreement on increasing women’s representation, disagreements remain over the timing, process, and potential political implications of the delimitation exercise.

Some leaders have argued that delimitation could significantly alter the balance of representation among states, making it a contentious issue beyond the women’s quota itself.

The government, however, has framed the move as a step toward strengthening women’s participation in governance and ensuring more inclusive policymaking.

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