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El Nino, monsoon and India’s food security: How they are linked

Fortunately enough for the last 4 years consecutively, from 2019 to 2022, the country enjoyed four consecutive years of good monsoons.

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Agriculture

India’s food security, especially post the Green Revolution, has been majorly taken care of by Punjab and Haryana.

But unfortunately, the two states had been witnessing a fallout in their contribution to assuring that India doesn’t go to bed empty stomachs. The fact that in the last two decades, the combined share of two states in total wheat procurement by the Central foodgrain pool for the Public Distribution System has fallen from 90% or even more to hardly 70%, scares the country’s food security. And to catalyse the insecurity, the data on the contribution of rice from two states, showing a decline from 43-44% to 28-29%, is there.

However, after bearing a loss of falling contribution to central procurement by almost 50%, their contribution has now again gone up in the last two years to 70-74%, reaffirming their image as reliable and all-weather contributors to national food security.

The reason for the falling contribution was El Niño. During this event, due to the weakening of trade winds, warm water gets pushed back to the east, toward the west coast of the Americas. This phenomenon releases more heat into the atmosphere, creating more wet and more warm air.

El Nino, if we go by past data, has been resulting in monsoon failures in India. Thus, the El Nino years, to mention, 2014, 2015, and 2018 recorded subnormal rainfall. Fortunately enough for the last 4 years consecutively, from 2019 to 2022, the country enjoyed four consecutive years of good monsoons.

The ramification of a subnormal monsoon would be on the Kharif crops, which are sowed in May and harvested in October. Rice may bear the impact more, as it is a highly water-intensive crop and it requires at least 25 irrigations in the absence of rain. Moreover, if El Niño gets stronger, the impact could even extend to the rabi, a winter-spring crop. These, especially wheat, are grown using groundwater and the water from dam reservoirs that are recharged or refilled by the monsoon water. A subnormal monsoon can, hence, threaten national food security, by hitting both rice and wheat production.

Punjab and Haryana which assures access to irrigation, hold the rope of food security’s responsibility. In 2022-23 Punjab solely cultivated paddy, rice with husk, on 31.67 lakh hectares which also includes 4.94 lakh hectares under basmati varieties.

An official from Punjab’s agriculture department even claimed that paddy yields in Punjab indeed tilt to go up during weak monsoon years. That’s because farmers then make use of groundwater only and irrigation then works according to their own plans. Their worries are rather more about the monsoon season prolonging and raining when it’s the harvesting period of crops.

India News

Congress, BJP attack Bhagwant Mann over remarks on Punjab blasts

Congress and BJP have jointly criticised Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann after he linked recent blasts near defence sites to political motives, triggering a controversy.

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Bhagwant Mann

A political row has erupted in Punjab after Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann linked recent blast incidents to political motives, drawing sharp criticism from both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The controversy follows two low-intensity explosions reported within a short span of time — one near the Border Security Force (BSF) headquarters in Jalandhar and another close to an army cantonment area in Amritsar. The incidents raised concerns over security, particularly given the sensitive nature of the locations.

In response, Mann suggested that the blasts could be part of a larger political strategy. His remarks triggered a strong backlash, with opposition parties accusing him of politicising a serious security issue.

Leaders from the Congress criticised the Chief Minister’s statement, calling it inappropriate and alleging that such comments undermine the gravity of the situation. They stressed that matters related to national security should be handled with caution and responsibility.

The BJP also joined the criticism, questioning the basis of Mann’s claims and urging the state government to focus on investigation and law enforcement instead of making political allegations.

The developments have led to an unusual moment where both Congress and BJP appear aligned in their criticism of the Aam Aadmi Party-led government in the state.

Meanwhile, the blasts themselves have intensified concerns over safety in border regions, with authorities continuing their investigation into the incidents. No casualties were reported, but the proximity to defence establishments has made the issue particularly sensitive.

The episode has further escalated political tensions in the state, with security and accountability emerging as key points of debate.

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Himanta Biswa Sarma resigns as Assam chief minister, oath ceremony likely after May 11

Himanta Biswa Sarma resigns as Assam Chief Minister after BJP-led NDA’s victory. He will continue as caretaker CM until the new government is sworn in after May 11.

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Himanta sharma

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma resigned from his post on Wednesday, paving the way for the formation of a new government after the BJP-led NDA secured a decisive victory in the 2026 Assembly elections.

Sarma submitted his resignation to Governor Lakshman Prasad Acharya at Lok Bhawan in Guwahati. The Governor accepted the resignation and asked him to continue as the caretaker Chief Minister until the new government takes charge.

The resignation comes after the NDA’s strong electoral performance, where the alliance won a clear majority in the 126-member Assembly, ensuring its return to power for another term.

Oath ceremony expected after May 11

Speaking to reporters after submitting his resignation, Sarma said the swearing-in ceremony for the new government is likely to be held after May 11.

He indicated that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been invited to attend the ceremony but is unavailable until May 11, which has influenced the tentative schedule.

Decision on next chief minister soon

Sources suggest that central observers, including senior BJP leaders, are expected to arrive shortly to oversee the selection of the legislature party leader. The newly elected MLAs will then decide on the next Chief Minister.

Despite the formal resignation, party sources indicate that Sarma is likely to continue in the role for another term, given the BJP’s strong mandate in the state.

The move marks the beginning of the government formation process in Assam following the election results declared earlier this week.

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Rahul Gandhi and Vijay alliance took shape through backchannel talks, early signals from Congress leaders

Congress outreach and political calculations led to Rahul Gandhi and Vijay coming together after the Tamil Nadu 2026 election results.

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The coming together of Rahul Gandhi and actor-politician Vijay in Tamil Nadu after the 2026 Assembly elections was not sudden, but the result of behind-the-scenes political manoeuvring and early signals within the Congress.

According to media reports, some leaders in the Tamil Nadu Congress had already sensed the scale of Vijay’s surge during the campaign, anticipating what was later described as a “wave” in favour of his party.

After the results, where Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) emerged as the single largest party but fell short of a majority, communication channels between the Congress leadership and Vijay quickly became active.

A key moment in this evolving political equation was a phone call from Rahul Gandhi to Vijay, congratulating him on the party’s strong performance. The conversation was seen as more than a courtesy, signalling the possibility of cooperation at a time when government formation required additional support.

Reports indicate that discussions within Congress weighed the political benefits of supporting Vijay, especially given the shifting dynamics in the state where traditional dominance by major Dravidian parties has been challenged.

With TVK needing allies to cross the majority mark, Congress emerged as a potential partner, leading to a broader political realignment in the state. This development also triggered tensions within opposition alliances, highlighting the strategic importance of the decision.

The evolving partnership reflects a mix of electoral pragmatism and changing voter sentiment, particularly the growing influence of younger voters, which leaders acknowledged as a key factor in the election outcome.

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