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El Nino, monsoon and India’s food security: How they are linked

Fortunately enough for the last 4 years consecutively, from 2019 to 2022, the country enjoyed four consecutive years of good monsoons.

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Agriculture

India’s food security, especially post the Green Revolution, has been majorly taken care of by Punjab and Haryana.

But unfortunately, the two states had been witnessing a fallout in their contribution to assuring that India doesn’t go to bed empty stomachs. The fact that in the last two decades, the combined share of two states in total wheat procurement by the Central foodgrain pool for the Public Distribution System has fallen from 90% or even more to hardly 70%, scares the country’s food security. And to catalyse the insecurity, the data on the contribution of rice from two states, showing a decline from 43-44% to 28-29%, is there.

However, after bearing a loss of falling contribution to central procurement by almost 50%, their contribution has now again gone up in the last two years to 70-74%, reaffirming their image as reliable and all-weather contributors to national food security.

The reason for the falling contribution was El Niño. During this event, due to the weakening of trade winds, warm water gets pushed back to the east, toward the west coast of the Americas. This phenomenon releases more heat into the atmosphere, creating more wet and more warm air.

El Nino, if we go by past data, has been resulting in monsoon failures in India. Thus, the El Nino years, to mention, 2014, 2015, and 2018 recorded subnormal rainfall. Fortunately enough for the last 4 years consecutively, from 2019 to 2022, the country enjoyed four consecutive years of good monsoons.

The ramification of a subnormal monsoon would be on the Kharif crops, which are sowed in May and harvested in October. Rice may bear the impact more, as it is a highly water-intensive crop and it requires at least 25 irrigations in the absence of rain. Moreover, if El Niño gets stronger, the impact could even extend to the rabi, a winter-spring crop. These, especially wheat, are grown using groundwater and the water from dam reservoirs that are recharged or refilled by the monsoon water. A subnormal monsoon can, hence, threaten national food security, by hitting both rice and wheat production.

Punjab and Haryana which assures access to irrigation, hold the rope of food security’s responsibility. In 2022-23 Punjab solely cultivated paddy, rice with husk, on 31.67 lakh hectares which also includes 4.94 lakh hectares under basmati varieties.

An official from Punjab’s agriculture department even claimed that paddy yields in Punjab indeed tilt to go up during weak monsoon years. That’s because farmers then make use of groundwater only and irrigation then works according to their own plans. Their worries are rather more about the monsoon season prolonging and raining when it’s the harvesting period of crops.

India News

Madras High Court orders vigilance probe into alleged bribe in gold fraud case

The Madras High Court has ordered a vigilance probe into allegations that a senior lawyer received Rs 50 lakh in a gold trade fraud case registered by the CBI.

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Madras High Court

The Madras High Court has directed a vigilance inquiry into allegations that a senior lawyer allegedly accepted Rs 50 lakh from accused individuals in a gold trade fraud case, purportedly to secure favourable judicial orders.

Justice Nirmal Kumar, who was hearing petitions related to the case, ordered the probe and subsequently recused himself from further proceedings.

Allegations linked to Rs 89.90 crore gold fraud case

The matter stems from a Rs 89.90 crore gold trade fraud case registered by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI). Two accused persons have moved the High Court seeking quashing of the case and discharge from the proceedings.

According to court records, a communication sent by a body identifying itself as the All India Lawyers Association for Justice to the judge and the Union Law Ministry alleged that a senior lawyer representing the petitioners had received Rs 50 lakh from the accused. The letter claimed the amount was meant to obtain favourable orders in the case.

Lawyer denies charges

Following receipt of the letter, the court summoned the concerned lawyer for clarification. The lawyer denied the allegations and stated willingness to cooperate with any inquiry.

The CBI’s special public prosecutor urged the court to disregard the letter, arguing that it affected the dignity of the institution and sought steps to identify the sender.

After considering the submissions, the court ordered a vigilance inquiry into the claims. Justice Nirmal Kumar then recused himself from hearing the related petitions.

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Rahul Gandhi meets farmers over India-US trade deal, BJP calls it stage-managed

Rahul Gandhi met farmer leaders over concerns surrounding the India-US trade deal, drawing sharp criticism from BJP, which termed the interaction stage-managed.

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Rahul-Gandhi

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi met representatives of several farmer organisations at his Parliament office to discuss concerns related to the proposed India-US trade framework. The meeting has triggered sharp political reactions, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alleging that the interaction was “stage-managed”.

According to details shared, Gandhi — who is the Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha — held discussions with representatives of 17 major farmer unions from across the country. The farm leaders conveyed apprehensions that the trade agreement could adversely affect cultivators, particularly those growing corn, soyabean, cotton, fruits and nuts.

They urged the need for a nationwide movement to safeguard farmers’ rights and protect their incomes from any potential impact of the agreement.

BJP alleges ‘artificial narrative’

Responding to the development, Union Minister Piyush Goyal criticised the Congress leader, terming the meeting “artificial” and “baseless”. In a video post on X, Goyal alleged that Gandhi was attempting to mislead farmers.

“Mr Rahul Gandhi has once again rolled out a stage-managed, most artificial and fake narrative,” Goyal said. He further claimed that individuals posing as farmer leaders were aligned with the Congress party and were part of an orchestrated attempt to create confusion.

The minister added that the government had fully protected the interests of farmers in the India-US trade deal and accused the opposition of provoking sentiment against the country’s economic policies.

What the India-US trade framework proposes

The interim trade agreement between India and the United States focuses on lowering tariff barriers while balancing domestic agricultural sensitivities. As part of the arrangement, the US has agreed to reduce reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods — from levels as high as 50 per cent to 18 per cent — benefiting sectors such as textiles, leather, footwear and pharmaceuticals.

The government has maintained that between 90 and 95 per cent of Indian agricultural products remain outside the scope of the agreement, ensuring protection for farmers.

The political exchange reflects broader debate over the potential implications of the trade framework, particularly for the agriculture sector.


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Ex-shooter of Mukhtar Ansari gang shot dead in Barabanki, 15 rounds fired

A former shooter linked to Mukhtar Ansari’s gang was killed in Barabanki after attackers fired 15 rounds at his vehicle during a 10-minute assault.

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A former shooter linked to the gang of Mukhtar Ansari was shot dead in Uttar Pradesh’s Barabanki district after unidentified attackers opened fire on his vehicle.

The deceased, Shoaib alias Bobby, had earlier been associated with Ansari’s criminal network. He was also an accused in the 1999 murder case of Lucknow jailer RK Tiwari.

Attack in Asaini area

According to police officials, the incident took place in the Asaini area when Shoaib was travelling from Barabanki towards Lucknow. A total of 15 rounds were fired at his vehicle during the attack.

Authorities said the firing continued for nearly ten minutes. Eyewitnesses reported hearing multiple gunshots as the vehicle came under sustained fire, creating panic in the locality. The scale of the assault and the number of bullets discharged indicate that more than one attacker may have been involved, police added.

Background of the deceased

Shoaib Bobby had been identified in the past as a shooter for the Ansari gang. He was named as an accused in the 1999 killing of jailer RK Tiwari in Lucknow.

About Mukhtar Ansari

Mukhtar Ansari, who was 63 at the time of his death in 2024, had been booked in 65 criminal cases over the years, including charges of murder and extortion. Despite his criminal record, he was elected five times as a Member of the Legislative Assembly from different political parties.

Born in 1963 into an influential family, Ansari entered organised crime during a period when contract mafia activities were prevalent in parts of Uttar Pradesh. From 2005 until his death, he remained lodged in various jails in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab.

Ansari died of cardiac arrest after being hospitalised in 2024. According to a medical bulletin issued in Hindi, he was shifted from jail in Banda to Rani Durgavati Medical College at around 8.25 pm after complaining of vomiting and being found unconscious.

Police are continuing their investigation into the Barabanki shooting.

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