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Omicron triggered third wave in India may peak by January-end, daily cases touching 10 lakh: Study

A new modelling study by IISc-ISI has predicted that India is currently in the third wave and the Covid-19 cases may peak in January-end or February, with daily cases touching 10 lakh.

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Covid-19 cases in India

Another major Covid-19 variant is wreaking havoc on the world. Since the emergence of the highly transmitted Covid-19 strain Omicron, cases in the world have multiplied. India is witnessing an Omicron-triggered third wave where the daily cases have crossed the 1 lakh mark.

A new modelling study by IISc-ISI has predicted that India is currently in the third wave and the Covid-19 cases may peak in January-end or February, with daily cases touching 10 lakh.

Professor Siva Athreya, Professor Rajesh Sundaresan, and a team from the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) and the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI) in Bengaluru conducted the study, which was based on Omicron transmissibility rates.

Prediction of the third-wave peak in India

According to the study, the peak of the third coronavirus wave in India might occur in the last week of January, with effects beginning in the first week of February. However, it adds that different states will have different peaks.

Mid-January to mid-February is when the third wave may peak in different states. The Covid-19 curve for India could start flattening by March-beginning, it added.

Depending on the percentage of people vulnerable to the virus, the model predicts a peak in Delhi by mid-January or the third week, and a peak in Tamil Nadu in the last week of January or the first week of February.

How was the study conducted? What all things were considered while predicting the third wave in the country?

Past infection, vaccination, and declining immunity are all taken into account in the model, leaving either 30 percent, 60 percent, or 100 percent of the population vulnerable. Because of prior infection and immunisation, a small percentage of the population is vulnerable to the new variant.

Daily cases in India might reach approximately 3 lakh, 6 lakh, or 10 lakh during peak time, depending on the percentage of people vulnerable to the virus.

The researchers then used the variant’s path in South Africa. Depending on the percentage of people vulnerable to the virus, the peak would occur during the third and fourth weeks of January. Similarly, depending on the number of people susceptible to the virus, the peak would decline from the beginning of March to the end of March.

Similar study by IIT-Kanpur

According to a study conducted by researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Kanpur, the third wave of the Covid-19 outbreak in India is expected to peak by February 3.

Read Also: Delhi likely to see 17,000 cases, positivity rate to inch above 17%, says state health minister

Since December 31, India has seen a significant increase in coronavirus infections, with daily cases soaring by five times and the active caseload spiking by three times in the last seven days. According to data from the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, cases of the Omicron variant have increased since December 31.

India News

Amit Shah praises Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation, says Nation above post

Amit Shah hailed Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation as Union Education Minister, saying BJP places the nation and students above any position while highlighting the government’s commitment to examination reforms.

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Amit Shah

Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Saturday praised Dharmendra Pradhan’s decision to step down as Union Education Minister, saying the move reflected the Bharatiya Janata Party’s commitment to placing the nation and students above any political position.

In a post on X, Shah said that for BJP workers, the country, its youth and students are more important than any office. He described Pradhan’s resignation as an example of the party’s guiding principle of prioritising national interest over personal ambition.

Shah highlights government’s focus on exam reforms

Amit Shah said the Narendra Modi-led government respects the sentiments of students and remains committed to strengthening the examination system following concerns over alleged paper leaks.

He said the Centre has introduced strict measures to ensure severe punishment for those involved in examination paper leaks and expressed confidence that these steps would deliver justice to students who cleared the National Eligibility-cum-Entrance Test (NEET).

Praises Pradhan’s work as Education Minister

Recalling Dharmendra Pradhan’s tenure, Shah highlighted several initiatives undertaken during his time in the Education Ministry. He credited Pradhan with helping implement the National Education Policy (NEP), expanding PM SHRI schools, promoting digital education, strengthening skill development and improving coordination between industry and academic institutions.

Shah also said Pradhan worked towards making examinations more inclusive and student-centric, adding that his tenure reflected his commitment to the vision of a developed India.

Resignation follows NEET controversy

Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation comes amid nationwide protests over alleged irregularities in the NEET examination and growing demands for accountability.

The resignation has triggered political reactions across party lines. While opposition parties have described the development as a result of sustained student protests, BJP leaders have projected it as an example of accountability and commitment to national interest.

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India News

Assam flood death toll rises to 66, over 6.5 lakh people still affected

Assam’s flood situation improved slightly on Saturday, but more than 6.54 lakh people remain affected in six districts. Four fresh deaths have pushed the state’s flood toll to 66.

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Assam floods

The flood situation in Assam showed marginal improvement on Saturday, though the disaster continued to impact more than 6.54 lakh people across six districts. Four more deaths were reported during the day, taking the total number of fatalities in this year’s floods to 66.

According to the Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA), three of the latest deaths were reported from Sivasagar district, while one person lost their life in Charaideo.

The number of affected people declined from over 7.05 lakh across nine districts on Friday to 6,54,800 across six districts on Saturday, indicating a gradual improvement in the overall situation.

Sivasagar remains the worst-hit district

Among the affected districts, Sivasagar continues to be the worst hit, with nearly 2.9 lakh people impacted by the floods. Charaideo follows with around 1.9 lakh affected residents, while more than 1.3 lakh people remain affected in Jorhat.

The other districts still facing flood-related challenges are Dibrugarh, Golaghat and Nagaon.

Relief operations continue across affected areas

The ASDMA said the state administration is operating 274 relief camps and aid distribution centres across the affected districts. Around 18,902 displaced people are currently taking shelter at these facilities.

The latest daily bulletin also stated that floodwaters have inundated 810 villages across the state, while 34,970.8 hectares of agricultural land have suffered damage.

Rivers flowing above danger level

The floods have also damaged embankments, roads, bridges and other public infrastructure in several areas.

Authorities said the Dikhou River in Sivasagar and the Dhansiri River at Numaligarh are flowing above the danger level, and officials continue to closely monitor the situation.

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India News

UP Government forms new SIT led by 3 IPS officers to probe Ayodhya Ram Temple donation theft

The Uttar Pradesh government has formed a new SIT led by three IPS officers to investigate the alleged Ram Temple donation theft case in Ayodhya following Supreme Court directions.

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Ram Mandir

The Uttar Pradesh government has reconstituted a Special Investigation Team (SIT) headed by IG Kiran S, with DIG Somen Verma and SSP Dr Gaurav Grover as members, to investigate the alleged theft of donations meant for the Ram Temple in Ayodhya. 

The move comes after directions from the Supreme Court, which sought a reconstituted investigation team to ensure an independent and comprehensive probe into the allegations.

The newly formed SIT is expected to continue the investigation and submit a status report before the Supreme Court on July 27.

Senior IPS officers to lead the probe

According to the state government, the investigation will now be supervised by senior IPS officers.  The revamped SIT has been tasked with examining all aspects of the alleged embezzlement of temple donations and carrying the investigation forward.

The Supreme Court had observed that criminal investigations and technical examination of theft-related cases are more effectively handled by experienced police officers, leading to the reconstitution of the SIT under senior IPS leadership.

Probe to continue under court supervision

The case relates to the alleged embezzlement of offerings (chadhava) donated by devotees at the Shri Ram Janmabhoomi Temple in Ayodhya.

The Supreme Court is monitoring the investigation and will review the SIT’s status report at the next hearing.

Authorities are expected to continue examining evidence collected during the earlier stages of the investigation as the newly constituted SIT proceeds with the case.

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