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PM Modi slips on unemployment and price rise, will not get majority if polls held now: Survey

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Narendra Modi

An opinion poll by India Today-Karvy Insights says that the BJP, unlike 2014 Lok Sabha elections, would not muster a majority on its own if polls are held now.

Unemployment, price rise, and corruption remain the three biggest issues of concern for Indians, found the survey and all three seem to have become bigger concerns in the last six months.

The Mood Of The Nation (MOTN) survey, released on Saturday, 18 August, says the BJP-led NDA would be back in power, but barely so, if elections were held today.

The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance may not be able to fulfil its goal of displace the Modi-Shah led BJP, though it makes significant gains.

While the BJP will not fall short of getting a majority, it will remain the single-largest party with 245 seats (it won 282 in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls), 27 less than the 272 required for simple majority, making it dependent on allies.

According to the biannual poll, the NDA would be just nine ahead of the Lok Sabha halfway mark with 281 seats.

The Congress, on the other hand, would nearly double its 2014 tally by winning 83 seats.

The UPA would win 122 seats while ‘Others’ would pick up the remaining 140.

In terms of the vote share, the NDA would win 36 per cent of votes polled while the UPA would win 31 per cent. ‘Others’ will manage to get more vote share than UPA at 33 per cent.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP crossed the 272-mark comfortably on its own, winning 282 seats, a gain of 166 from the previous election. The NDA had a total of 336 seats in the Lower House of the Parliament. For the Congress, it was one of their worst defeat and managed to win a paltry 44 seats with just 19 per cent vote share.

The NDA’s combined vote share in 2014 was 38.5 per cent and the UPA’s was just under 23 per cent. That leaves out nearly 39 per cent — or a chunk roughly equal to the NDA’s — for all others.

The survey, conducted seven months ahead of the scheduled general assembly elections, takes into account three possible scenarios, analysed The Quint.

Scenario 1: UPA and NDA as in 2014

In scenario 1, the allies under both the coalitions remain the same as they were in 2014, without any new equations coming into play.

Here, the UPA, sans its major allies of BSP, SP and TMC, is predicted to get 122 seats, as against the NDA’s mammoth 281 seats. Others get 140 seats.

As far as vote share is concerned, the UPA is pegged at 31 percent, while the NDA is at 36 percent and the others at 33 percent.

Scenario 2: UPA Allies with BSP, SP and TMC

A scenario in which the opposition gets its act together and forms a ‘mahagathbandhan’ consisting mainly of the Congress, the Trinamool Congress, the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Janata Dal (Secular).

Such a coalition could win as many as 224 seats , just four behind the NDA whose tally will be down to 228 seats. Others get 91 seats.

The BJPs own tally would drop to 194 seats and though it will still be the single-largest party, it will be heavily dependent on its allies and breakaway parties to form a government.

Modi’s credibility as BJP’s prime vote-catcher would get severely dented in such a case and cast doubts over his acceptability as prime minister by the NDA allies. Modi himself may not be inclined to rule a gaggle of parties as he may balk at running a coalition where his writ would not run unchallenged as it does now.

As far as vote share is concerned, the UPA is at 41 percent, far ahead of the NDA which is at 36 percent, while others are expected to get 23 percent.

The survey pegs the reason behind the UPA alliance getting lesser seats despite a far higher vote share to the fact that the BJP vote base is concentrated at specific regions like the north, west and the north-west.

Scenario 3: NDA and its Southern Allies

In this scenario, the NDA placates its new alliance partners in the south – AIADMK in Tamil Nadu and the YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh.

With those allies in tow, the NDA+ is likely to garner 255 seats, while the UPA is expected to get 242 seats.

However, if TRS and BJD join the NDA in a post-poll alliance, the number could spike up to 282 seats.

In all scenarios, the NDA alliance is ahead of the UPA as far as seat share is concerned.

The survey further predicts that to up its chances in the final contest, the Congress will have to win in two of three upcoming state elections – Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.

The survey found Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to get the highest rating as prime ministerial candidate, with 49 percent polling – but he has slipped four points from January 2018, when he was favoured by 53 percent of those surveyed and has dropped a significant 16 percent from January 2017’s 65 percent.

The survey shows that Rahul Gandhi‘s popularity is on the rise, with his rating moving up steadily from a low of 10 per cent in the January 2017 MOTN to 22 percent in January 2018 and 27 per cent this time. The gap between Modi and him is still a large 22 percentage points, but it indicates that Rahul, as Congress president, is emerging as a challenger.

PM Modi slips on unemployment and price rise, will not get majority if polls held now: Survey

  • From India Today

None of the BJP leaders feature in the top three list of best chief ministers in the MOTN survey. While TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee topped the poll, Bihar CM Nitish Kumar and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal were ranked third and fourth.

Manohar Parrikar, Vijay Rupani, ML Khattar, Devendra Fadnavis and Amarinder Singh are among the chief ministers who have gotten a lowly two per cent popularity mark in the poll.

An overwhelming 49 per cent of the respondents believe that the Opposition unity would translate into an electoral alliance against BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Moreover, the India Today poll shows Rahul Gandhi is the best person to lead such an alliance. He was backed by 46% of respondents.

However, in the case of a non-BJP, non-Congress front, Mamata Banerjee has the upper hand to lead the alliance, according to the survey.

Among the ministers in the Narendra Modi cabinet, Arun Jaitley has emerged as the best performer, according to the survey. Rajnath Singh and Sushma Swaraj follow close behind while Nitin Gadkari and Nirmala Sitharaman rank fourth and fifth, respectively.

Asked about Modi’s performance, 55 per cent of respondents voted favourably. However, this is a drop of six percentage points compared to MOTN January 2018. A similar percentage of respondents (56 per cent) are satisfied by the NDA government’s performance – a sharp drop from its peak of 71 per cent in the January 2017 MOTN.

Unemployment, price rise, and corruption remain the three biggest issues of concern for Indians. In fact, all three are issues that seem to have become bigger concerns since the January MOTN poll. Unemployment tops the list and 34 per cent of the respondents feel it is a burning issue, five percent more than in January 2018.

One of the biggest policy decisions of the Narendra Modi government, the pain of the shock November 2016 demonetisation exercise hasn’t gone away for India, according to MOTN July 2018. Nearly three-fourths of the respondents said that demonetisation caused more pain than gain; the number (73 per cent) is the same as what it was in MOTN January 2018 but is a steep rise from last year’s MOTN (61 per cent).

The India Today Group-Karvy Insights Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll was conducted by Karvy Insights Limited. A total of 12,100 interviews were conducted (68% in rural & 32% in urban areas) across 97 parliamentary constituencies in 194 assembly constituencies in 19 statesAndhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.

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Mayawati says Akash Anand needs more maturity, rules out major BSP role

BSP chief Mayawati says nephew Akash Anand needs greater political maturity before taking on a major responsibility in the party.

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Akash Anand

Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati on Thursday said her nephew Akash Anand needs to gain greater political maturity before he can be entrusted with any major responsibility in the party.

Addressing a national-level meeting of BSP office-bearers, Mayawati said she had allowed Akash Anand to continue working within the organisation but felt that he was not yet ready to handle a significant party responsibility.

“I have allowed Akash Anand to work in the party, which is before all of you, but Akash Anand still needs to become more mature. Till then, it would not be appropriate to give him a major responsibility in the party,” Mayawati said.

Mayawati also made it clear that Akash Anand, who is the BSP’s national coordinator, would continue working in the party. However, he will not be entrusted with any major responsibility for the time being.

Mayawati refers to Kanshi Ram’s principles

Explaining her position, Mayawati referred to the principles of BSP founder Kanshi Ram.

She said Kanshi Ram had permitted members of his family and other relatives to assist with party work, but was against giving them election tickets or positions after the party came to power.

Mayawati said she was also committed to following that principle. According to her, maintaining this approach was important to protect the BSP from tactics allegedly employed by political opponents during elections.

BSP to contest elections alone

During the meeting, Mayawati also announced a major political decision concerning the BSP’s electoral strategy.

She said the party had decided to contest all elections across the country on its own, irrespective of whether they were small or major elections.

Targeting the Congress, Mayawati described it as a “strongly anti-Dalit and anti-Ambedkar” party and said the BSP would therefore fight elections independently rather than depend on other parties.

The decision was announced as Mayawati reviewed the BSP’s organisational work and discussed shortcomings with party office-bearers.

She instructed leaders at different levels to implement the party’s annual organisational activities with complete honesty and dedication.

Mayawati attacks RSS over minority rights

Mayawati also criticised the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), referring to comments made by its chief Mohan Bhagwat during his recent visit to the United States.

Bhagwat had said that a Hindu who believes there should be no Muslims in Bharat would not remain a Hindu. He had also spoken about Hindu philosophy accepting that different faiths can lead to the same truth and emphasised the idea of unity in diversity.

Mayawati, however, said there was a significant difference between the RSS’s statements and its actions.

She argued that the organisation lacked credibility when it came to issues concerning the interests and welfare of the Bahujan Samaj, reservation as a constitutional right, and the safety, dignity and religious freedom of women, Muslims and other religious minorities.

She further said that despite its long existence, the RSS had not received the recognition and respect it sought.

Mayawati invokes Ambedkar’s Constitution

The BSP chief also challenged the RSS to demonstrate its commitment to the Constitution drafted under the leadership of Babasaheb Dr Bhimrao Ambedkar.

Mayawati said that if the RSS genuinely had faith in a humanitarian, welfare-oriented and egalitarian Constitution, it should follow its principles honestly and ensure that its members did the same.

BSP reiterates focus on Bahujan Samaj

At the national meeting, Mayawati reviewed the BSP’s organisational activities, assessed its shortcomings and gave directions to office-bearers regarding the party’s future work.

She reiterated that protecting the interests of the Bahujan Samaj and bringing exploited and deprived sections to political power remained the BSP’s central mission.

Mayawati maintained that achieving political power was necessary for the party to fulfil these objectives.

Her latest remarks on Akash Anand indicate that while her nephew will remain associated with the BSP and continue working for the organisation, he will not receive a major party responsibility until she believes he has attained the required political maturity.

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Abhinandan Varthaman retires from IAF, joins FLY91 as commercial pilot

Abhinandan Varthaman has taken premature retirement from the IAF after 22 years and reportedly joined Goa-based airline FLY91 as a commercial pilot.

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Indian Air Force fighter pilot Abhinandan Varthaman has taken premature retirement from the force after 22 years of service and has reportedly moved to commercial aviation.

The former Group Captain and Vir Chakra awardee has joined Goa-based regional airline FLY91 as a pilot, according to a report citing sources. The report said Varthaman joined the airline in August.

Varthaman has not made any public statement about the reported move. A spokesperson for FLY91 also declined to provide personal information about its employees, describing it as a private matter.

What is FLY91?

FLY91 is a regional airline based in Goa that began flight operations in March 2024. According to the report, the airline currently operates six ATR 72-600 aircraft and has bases in Goa and Hyderabad.

Abhinandan Varthaman’s 2019 aerial combat

Varthaman became widely known following the India-Pakistan aerial confrontation in February 2019.

After a suicide bombing in Pulwama killed 40 CRPF personnel, India carried out air strikes against a Jaish-e-Mohammad training camp in Balakot, according to the Indian government’s account.

The following day, the Pakistan Air Force launched a response, leading to an aerial engagement between the two sides. Varthaman, who was a Wing Commander at the time, was flying a MiG-21 when his aircraft was hit. He ejected and was subsequently captured by Pakistani forces.

According to the Indian government’s account and his Vir Chakra citation, Varthaman shot down a Pakistani F-16 during the aerial engagement before his own aircraft was hit. He was held in Pakistan for three days and was released on the night of March 1, 2019. He sustained injuries while ejecting from his MiG-21 Bison.

He was awarded the Vir Chakra, India’s third-highest wartime gallantry award, for his actions during the dogfight. The award was conferred in 2021. The award citation described him as displaying an “exceptional sense of duty”.

His reported transition to FLY91 marks a new phase in his aviation career, taking him from military fighter operations to commercial flying.

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Raghav Chadha marked as shifted in Punjab draft voter rolls, alleges AAP vendetta

Raghav Chadha has alleged political vendetta after his name was marked “shifted” in Punjab’s draft electoral rolls during the SIR exercise.

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Raghav Chadha

BJP Rajya Sabha MP Raghav Chadha has raised questions after his name was marked as “shifted” in Punjab’s draft electoral rolls prepared during the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voter lists.

Chadha, who remains a Rajya Sabha member from Punjab and has his voter registration in Mohali, alleged that the classification was not a routine clerical error and accused the Aam Aadmi Party-led Punjab government of political vendetta.

The electoral rolls currently under discussion are draft lists, with the final rolls scheduled to be published in October 2026.

Raghav Chadha questions voter list classification

Chadha said he was surprised to find his name classified as “shifted” despite being a sitting MP from Punjab.

He questioned how such a classification was made and pointed to the involvement of officials at different stages of the electoral roll revision process. According to Chadha, Booth Level Officers, Assistant Electoral Registration Officers, Electoral Registration Officers and District Election Officers are part of the process.

He alleged that these officials could potentially face political pressure because their transfers and postings are controlled by the state government.

Chadha also referred to Paragraph 4(d) of the Election Commission of India’s SIR guidelines. He said the provision requires public representatives, including MPs and MLAs, whose names are flagged in the electoral database to be included in the draft rolls so that they can participate in the claims and objections process.

He alleged that this provision was not followed in his case.

Punjab CEO seeks report on Chadha’s voter status

Punjab Chief Electoral Officer Anindita Mitra told that she was not aware of any deletion of Chadha’s name from the electoral rolls.

She said a detailed report would be sought from the district election authorities to determine whether his name had actually been deleted and, if so, the reason for the action.

Mitra also pointed out that the claims and objections process is currently underway. September 13 is the deadline for filing appeals over changes or discrepancies in the electoral rolls.

AAP rejects political vendetta allegation

The controversy has also drawn a response from the Aam Aadmi Party.

AAP leader Neel Garg rejected Chadha’s allegation, saying the party had no interest in deleting the vote of any individual. He instead alleged that the issue was being raised by the BJP and referred to the SIR exercises in Bihar and West Bengal.

Chadha joined the BJP in April 2026 along with six other AAP Rajya Sabha MPs.

The dispute comes as Punjab’s electoral rolls undergo revision ahead of the 2027 Assembly elections. Since the claims and objections process is still open, the status of Chadha’s name is subject to the ongoing electoral process.

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