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PM Modi slips on unemployment and price rise, will not get majority if polls held now: Survey

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Narendra Modi

An opinion poll by India Today-Karvy Insights says that the BJP, unlike 2014 Lok Sabha elections, would not muster a majority on its own if polls are held now.

Unemployment, price rise, and corruption remain the three biggest issues of concern for Indians, found the survey and all three seem to have become bigger concerns in the last six months.

The Mood Of The Nation (MOTN) survey, released on Saturday, 18 August, says the BJP-led NDA would be back in power, but barely so, if elections were held today.

The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance may not be able to fulfil its goal of displace the Modi-Shah led BJP, though it makes significant gains.

While the BJP will not fall short of getting a majority, it will remain the single-largest party with 245 seats (it won 282 in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls), 27 less than the 272 required for simple majority, making it dependent on allies.

According to the biannual poll, the NDA would be just nine ahead of the Lok Sabha halfway mark with 281 seats.

The Congress, on the other hand, would nearly double its 2014 tally by winning 83 seats.

The UPA would win 122 seats while ‘Others’ would pick up the remaining 140.

In terms of the vote share, the NDA would win 36 per cent of votes polled while the UPA would win 31 per cent. ‘Others’ will manage to get more vote share than UPA at 33 per cent.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP crossed the 272-mark comfortably on its own, winning 282 seats, a gain of 166 from the previous election. The NDA had a total of 336 seats in the Lower House of the Parliament. For the Congress, it was one of their worst defeat and managed to win a paltry 44 seats with just 19 per cent vote share.

The NDA’s combined vote share in 2014 was 38.5 per cent and the UPA’s was just under 23 per cent. That leaves out nearly 39 per cent — or a chunk roughly equal to the NDA’s — for all others.

The survey, conducted seven months ahead of the scheduled general assembly elections, takes into account three possible scenarios, analysed The Quint.

Scenario 1: UPA and NDA as in 2014

In scenario 1, the allies under both the coalitions remain the same as they were in 2014, without any new equations coming into play.

Here, the UPA, sans its major allies of BSP, SP and TMC, is predicted to get 122 seats, as against the NDA’s mammoth 281 seats. Others get 140 seats.

As far as vote share is concerned, the UPA is pegged at 31 percent, while the NDA is at 36 percent and the others at 33 percent.

Scenario 2: UPA Allies with BSP, SP and TMC

A scenario in which the opposition gets its act together and forms a ‘mahagathbandhan’ consisting mainly of the Congress, the Trinamool Congress, the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Janata Dal (Secular).

Such a coalition could win as many as 224 seats , just four behind the NDA whose tally will be down to 228 seats. Others get 91 seats.

The BJPs own tally would drop to 194 seats and though it will still be the single-largest party, it will be heavily dependent on its allies and breakaway parties to form a government.

Modi’s credibility as BJP’s prime vote-catcher would get severely dented in such a case and cast doubts over his acceptability as prime minister by the NDA allies. Modi himself may not be inclined to rule a gaggle of parties as he may balk at running a coalition where his writ would not run unchallenged as it does now.

As far as vote share is concerned, the UPA is at 41 percent, far ahead of the NDA which is at 36 percent, while others are expected to get 23 percent.

The survey pegs the reason behind the UPA alliance getting lesser seats despite a far higher vote share to the fact that the BJP vote base is concentrated at specific regions like the north, west and the north-west.

Scenario 3: NDA and its Southern Allies

In this scenario, the NDA placates its new alliance partners in the south – AIADMK in Tamil Nadu and the YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh.

With those allies in tow, the NDA+ is likely to garner 255 seats, while the UPA is expected to get 242 seats.

However, if TRS and BJD join the NDA in a post-poll alliance, the number could spike up to 282 seats.

In all scenarios, the NDA alliance is ahead of the UPA as far as seat share is concerned.

The survey further predicts that to up its chances in the final contest, the Congress will have to win in two of three upcoming state elections – Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.

The survey found Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to get the highest rating as prime ministerial candidate, with 49 percent polling – but he has slipped four points from January 2018, when he was favoured by 53 percent of those surveyed and has dropped a significant 16 percent from January 2017’s 65 percent.

The survey shows that Rahul Gandhi‘s popularity is on the rise, with his rating moving up steadily from a low of 10 per cent in the January 2017 MOTN to 22 percent in January 2018 and 27 per cent this time. The gap between Modi and him is still a large 22 percentage points, but it indicates that Rahul, as Congress president, is emerging as a challenger.

PM Modi slips on unemployment and price rise, will not get majority if polls held now: Survey

  • From India Today

None of the BJP leaders feature in the top three list of best chief ministers in the MOTN survey. While TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee topped the poll, Bihar CM Nitish Kumar and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal were ranked third and fourth.

Manohar Parrikar, Vijay Rupani, ML Khattar, Devendra Fadnavis and Amarinder Singh are among the chief ministers who have gotten a lowly two per cent popularity mark in the poll.

An overwhelming 49 per cent of the respondents believe that the Opposition unity would translate into an electoral alliance against BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Moreover, the India Today poll shows Rahul Gandhi is the best person to lead such an alliance. He was backed by 46% of respondents.

However, in the case of a non-BJP, non-Congress front, Mamata Banerjee has the upper hand to lead the alliance, according to the survey.

Among the ministers in the Narendra Modi cabinet, Arun Jaitley has emerged as the best performer, according to the survey. Rajnath Singh and Sushma Swaraj follow close behind while Nitin Gadkari and Nirmala Sitharaman rank fourth and fifth, respectively.

Asked about Modi’s performance, 55 per cent of respondents voted favourably. However, this is a drop of six percentage points compared to MOTN January 2018. A similar percentage of respondents (56 per cent) are satisfied by the NDA government’s performance – a sharp drop from its peak of 71 per cent in the January 2017 MOTN.

Unemployment, price rise, and corruption remain the three biggest issues of concern for Indians. In fact, all three are issues that seem to have become bigger concerns since the January MOTN poll. Unemployment tops the list and 34 per cent of the respondents feel it is a burning issue, five percent more than in January 2018.

One of the biggest policy decisions of the Narendra Modi government, the pain of the shock November 2016 demonetisation exercise hasn’t gone away for India, according to MOTN July 2018. Nearly three-fourths of the respondents said that demonetisation caused more pain than gain; the number (73 per cent) is the same as what it was in MOTN January 2018 but is a steep rise from last year’s MOTN (61 per cent).

The India Today Group-Karvy Insights Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll was conducted by Karvy Insights Limited. A total of 12,100 interviews were conducted (68% in rural & 32% in urban areas) across 97 parliamentary constituencies in 194 assembly constituencies in 19 statesAndhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.

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Rahul Gandhi accuses Modi of foreign backing, BJP hits back with UK clip

Rahul Gandhi alleged that foreign forces helped Narendra Modi become Prime Minister and continue in power. The Congress leader also challenged Modi to an open debate, while the BJP responded by sharing an old video of his remarks during a UK visit.

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Rahul Gandhi

A fresh political confrontation has erupted between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) after Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi accused Prime Minister Narendra Modi of becoming and remaining in power with foreign assistance.

Gandhi also challenged the Prime Minister to an open debate on the issue, saying he was ready to face him on any platform and at any time.

The BJP responded by bringing up an old video of Gandhi from his visit to the United Kingdom, reviving the controversy surrounding his remarks about India’s democratic institutions and the role of foreign countries.

What Rahul Gandhi said about PM Modi

Gandhi’s remarks came in response to Modi’s recent comments targeting the Opposition during his address at the Rashtriya Ekta Diwas celebrations in Gujarat on October 31.

In a post on X on Monday, Gandhi accused the Prime Minister of relying on foreign support to attain and retain power.

“Mr Modi, stop lying to this nation. You became PM because of foreign help. You remain PM because of foreign help,” Gandhi wrote.

He further alleged that India’s financial system was fully controlled and supported by foreign entities and claimed that foreign social media platforms backed the Prime Minister.

The Congress leader also challenged Modi to discuss the allegations publicly.

“I challenge you to an open debate about this. Any stage, any time. Come if you have the guts,” he said, adding that the Prime Minister would not accept the challenge because of what Gandhi claimed to know about him.

Why PM Modi criticised the Opposition

Gandhi’s response followed Modi’s address at the Rashtriya Ekta Diwas event in Ekta Nagar, Gujarat, marking the 151st birth anniversary of Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel.

During his speech, the Prime Minister accused the Opposition of moving away from its democratic responsibility of questioning the government and instead becoming an obstructionist force.

Modi described the Opposition as an “Avrodh Paksh” rather than a “Virodh Paksh”, alleging that it was creating obstacles to the country’s development.

Without directly naming Gandhi, the Prime Minister also raised questions about the foreign visits of certain political leaders and their alleged connections with forces opposed to India.

“Who is secretly meeting whom abroad? Whom are the anti-India forces supporting? Who is speaking the language of India’s enemies?” Modi asked.

He also expressed concern over the use of social media to spread rumours and attempts to damage India’s image.

BJP brings back Rahul Gandhi’s old UK remarks

The BJP responded to Gandhi’s allegations by sharing an old video from his UK visit, bringing attention back to his earlier comments about India’s democratic institutions and the involvement of foreign countries.

During an interaction at Chatham House in London in March 2023, Gandhi had alleged that several Indian institutions, including the Press, judiciary, Parliament and Election Commission, were under threat.

He had also questioned why Europe and the United States were not doing enough to raise concerns about what he described as threats to democracy in India.

The remarks had triggered a political controversy at the time, with the BJP accusing Gandhi of seeking foreign intervention in India’s internal affairs.

BJP leaders had demanded an apology from the Congress leader over his comments during the UK visit.

The resurfacing of the old video has brought those earlier remarks back into the political debate as the Congress and BJP trade accusations over alleged foreign backing.

Political confrontation intensifies

The latest exchange comes amid an ongoing confrontation between the ruling BJP and the Opposition over several issues, including allegations of electoral irregularities and the role of constitutional institutions.

Gandhi’s challenge to Modi for an open debate has added another dimension to the political dispute, with both parties questioning each other’s alleged connections with foreign forces.

While Gandhi has accused the Prime Minister of benefiting from foreign support, the BJP has repeatedly questioned the Congress leader’s overseas remarks and alleged attempts to involve foreign countries in India’s internal political matters.

Neither side’s allegations about foreign backing should be treated as established facts without supporting evidence.

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Delhi Pollution: GRAP-II curbs imposed across NCR as AQI hits 324

Delhi’s air quality deteriorated to the very poor category on November 2, prompting the CAQM to implement GRAP Stage II across Delhi-NCR. The measures aim to control dust and vehicular pollution.

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Delhi’s air quality deteriorated to the ‘very poor’ category on Monday, November 2, prompting the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) to invoke Stage II of the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) across the National Capital Region (NCR) with immediate effect.

The national capital’s Air Quality Index (AQI) reached 324 at 4 pm, placing it in the very poor category. The deterioration followed a sharp increase in pollution levels over three days, with the AQI rising from 117 on October 31 to 261 on November 1 before crossing the 300 mark on Monday.

The CAQM attributed the worsening air quality to unfavourable meteorological conditions. Forecasts by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) also indicated that Delhi’s air quality could remain in the very poor category over the coming days.

What is GRAP Stage II and why has it been imposed?

The Graded Response Action Plan is a set of emergency measures designed to tackle worsening air pollution in Delhi-NCR. It has different stages based on the severity of air quality.

Under the AQI classification, readings between 301 and 400 fall in the very poor category. GRAP Stage II is applicable when air quality reaches this range.

With Delhi’s AQI climbing to 324, the CAQM directed authorities to implement Stage II measures across the NCR. The directions also require agencies to continue implementing measures under the earlier stages of GRAP.

What restrictions come under GRAP Stage II?

The second stage of GRAP focuses on strengthening pollution-control measures, particularly those related to road dust, vehicular emissions and other sources of pollution.

Some of the important measures include:

  • Road cleaning: Authorities are required to intensify mechanical sweeping of roads and water sprinkling to control dust.
  • Traffic management: Traffic police are directed to manage congestion at busy roads and intersections.
  • Vehicle checks: Enforcement teams are required to intensify checks for valid Pollution Under Control (PUC) certificates and take action against visibly polluting vehicles.
  • Parking charges: Higher parking fees are among the measures intended to discourage the use of private vehicles.
  • Diesel generators: The use of diesel generator sets is subject to stricter regulation.
  • Public transport: Authorities are required to encourage the use of public transport to reduce vehicular emissions.

These measures are intended to reduce pollution levels across Delhi-NCR.

Delhi’s AQI worsens over three days

Delhi witnessed a significant deterioration in air quality over a short period.

The AQI stood at 117 on October 31, placing it in the moderate category. It subsequently increased to 261 on November 1, entering the poor category.

On November 2, the reading climbed further to 324 by 4 pm, pushing the national capital into the very poor category.

The situation was also reflected in readings from individual monitoring stations. Several locations recorded AQI levels above 300.

Among the areas reporting high pollution levels were RK Puram, ITO, Akshardham, India Gate, Alipur, Dwarka Sector 8 and Delhi University’s North Campus.

With pollution levels worsening and unfavourable weather conditions expected to persist, authorities have been directed to strengthen enforcement of the prescribed pollution-control measures across the region.

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PM Modi to inaugurate Pune metro pink line, launch Rs 21,800 crore projects

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will inaugurate Pune Metro’s Pink Line and lay the foundation stone for Phase II projects worth around Rs. 13,500 crore on November 3. The combined value of the projects is approximately Rs. 21,800 crore.

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PM Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will inaugurate Pune Metro Line 3, also known as the Pink Line, and lay the foundation stone for four new metro corridors under Phase II on November 3. The projects, taken together, are estimated to be worth around Rs. 21,800 crore.

The inauguration and foundation stone-laying ceremony will take place through video conferencing at 12:30 pm. The Prime Minister will also address the gathering.

The programme includes the inauguration of the approximately 23-km-long Pink Line, developed at a cost of over Rs. 8,300 crore, and the launch of Pune Metro Phase II, which has an estimated cost of around Rs. 13,500 crore.

Pune Metro Pink Line to connect Hinjewadi and Shivajinagar

The Pink Line, officially known as Pune Metro Line 3, will connect Maan with District Court Metro station. The approximately 23-km corridor will provide metro connectivity between Hinjewadi, one of Pune’s major IT hubs, and Shivajinagar.

The new line is expected to improve access to important employment, commercial and residential areas, particularly benefiting IT professionals and other daily commuters.

It will also integrate with Pune’s existing metro network, allowing passengers to travel between different parts of the city more conveniently.

The project is expected to reduce dependence on private vehicles, ease traffic congestion and help lower vehicular emissions.

Pink Line to be operated entirely by women

An important feature of Pune Metro’s Pink Line is that it will be operated entirely by women train operators. The initiative has been highlighted as a step towards women’s empowerment and gender-inclusive public transportation.

The corridor also incorporates renewable energy measures. Around 30 per cent of its total electricity requirements are envisaged to be met through solar power.

Four new corridors planned under Pune Metro Phase II

Along with inaugurating Line 3, PM Modi will lay the foundation stone for Pune Metro Phase II, estimated to cost around Rs. 13,500 crore.

The expansion will comprise four corridors — Lines 2A, 2B, 4 and 4A — aimed at improving connectivity across major residential, commercial and IT hubs.

The proposed routes include:

  • Line 2A: Vanaz to Chandani Chowk.
  • Line 2B: Ramwadi to Vitthalwadi.
  • Line 4: Kharadi to Khadakwasla.
  • Line 4A: Nal Stop to Manik Baug.

Lines 2A and 2B will together cover approximately 12.75 km. Line 4 will span around 25.52 km, while Line 4A will cover approximately 6.12 km.

The eastern extension between Ramwadi and Vitthalwadi is expected to improve connectivity to developing residential, commercial and IT areas in Kharadi and Wagholi.

Key Pune areas to benefit from metro expansion

The proposed Phase II corridors will connect several important locations across Pune, including Kharadi, Magarpatta, Hadapsar, Swargate, Manik Baug, Nanded City, Pune Cantonment and Warje.

The new corridors will also integrate with the existing Pune Metro network and intercity bus services through interchange facilities at Swargate, Nal Stop and Kharadi Bypass.

The expansion is aimed at strengthening public transportation infrastructure and providing commuters with a more integrated urban mobility network across the city.

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