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PM Modi slips on unemployment and price rise, will not get majority if polls held now: Survey

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Narendra Modi

An opinion poll by India Today-Karvy Insights says that the BJP, unlike 2014 Lok Sabha elections, would not muster a majority on its own if polls are held now.

Unemployment, price rise, and corruption remain the three biggest issues of concern for Indians, found the survey and all three seem to have become bigger concerns in the last six months.

The Mood Of The Nation (MOTN) survey, released on Saturday, 18 August, says the BJP-led NDA would be back in power, but barely so, if elections were held today.

The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance may not be able to fulfil its goal of displace the Modi-Shah led BJP, though it makes significant gains.

While the BJP will not fall short of getting a majority, it will remain the single-largest party with 245 seats (it won 282 in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls), 27 less than the 272 required for simple majority, making it dependent on allies.

According to the biannual poll, the NDA would be just nine ahead of the Lok Sabha halfway mark with 281 seats.

The Congress, on the other hand, would nearly double its 2014 tally by winning 83 seats.

The UPA would win 122 seats while ‘Others’ would pick up the remaining 140.

In terms of the vote share, the NDA would win 36 per cent of votes polled while the UPA would win 31 per cent. ‘Others’ will manage to get more vote share than UPA at 33 per cent.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP crossed the 272-mark comfortably on its own, winning 282 seats, a gain of 166 from the previous election. The NDA had a total of 336 seats in the Lower House of the Parliament. For the Congress, it was one of their worst defeat and managed to win a paltry 44 seats with just 19 per cent vote share.

The NDA’s combined vote share in 2014 was 38.5 per cent and the UPA’s was just under 23 per cent. That leaves out nearly 39 per cent — or a chunk roughly equal to the NDA’s — for all others.

The survey, conducted seven months ahead of the scheduled general assembly elections, takes into account three possible scenarios, analysed The Quint.

Scenario 1: UPA and NDA as in 2014

In scenario 1, the allies under both the coalitions remain the same as they were in 2014, without any new equations coming into play.

Here, the UPA, sans its major allies of BSP, SP and TMC, is predicted to get 122 seats, as against the NDA’s mammoth 281 seats. Others get 140 seats.

As far as vote share is concerned, the UPA is pegged at 31 percent, while the NDA is at 36 percent and the others at 33 percent.

Scenario 2: UPA Allies with BSP, SP and TMC

A scenario in which the opposition gets its act together and forms a ‘mahagathbandhan’ consisting mainly of the Congress, the Trinamool Congress, the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Janata Dal (Secular).

Such a coalition could win as many as 224 seats , just four behind the NDA whose tally will be down to 228 seats. Others get 91 seats.

The BJPs own tally would drop to 194 seats and though it will still be the single-largest party, it will be heavily dependent on its allies and breakaway parties to form a government.

Modi’s credibility as BJP’s prime vote-catcher would get severely dented in such a case and cast doubts over his acceptability as prime minister by the NDA allies. Modi himself may not be inclined to rule a gaggle of parties as he may balk at running a coalition where his writ would not run unchallenged as it does now.

As far as vote share is concerned, the UPA is at 41 percent, far ahead of the NDA which is at 36 percent, while others are expected to get 23 percent.

The survey pegs the reason behind the UPA alliance getting lesser seats despite a far higher vote share to the fact that the BJP vote base is concentrated at specific regions like the north, west and the north-west.

Scenario 3: NDA and its Southern Allies

In this scenario, the NDA placates its new alliance partners in the south – AIADMK in Tamil Nadu and the YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh.

With those allies in tow, the NDA+ is likely to garner 255 seats, while the UPA is expected to get 242 seats.

However, if TRS and BJD join the NDA in a post-poll alliance, the number could spike up to 282 seats.

In all scenarios, the NDA alliance is ahead of the UPA as far as seat share is concerned.

The survey further predicts that to up its chances in the final contest, the Congress will have to win in two of three upcoming state elections – Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.

The survey found Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to get the highest rating as prime ministerial candidate, with 49 percent polling – but he has slipped four points from January 2018, when he was favoured by 53 percent of those surveyed and has dropped a significant 16 percent from January 2017’s 65 percent.

The survey shows that Rahul Gandhi‘s popularity is on the rise, with his rating moving up steadily from a low of 10 per cent in the January 2017 MOTN to 22 percent in January 2018 and 27 per cent this time. The gap between Modi and him is still a large 22 percentage points, but it indicates that Rahul, as Congress president, is emerging as a challenger.

PM Modi slips on unemployment and price rise, will not get majority if polls held now: Survey

  • From India Today

None of the BJP leaders feature in the top three list of best chief ministers in the MOTN survey. While TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee topped the poll, Bihar CM Nitish Kumar and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal were ranked third and fourth.

Manohar Parrikar, Vijay Rupani, ML Khattar, Devendra Fadnavis and Amarinder Singh are among the chief ministers who have gotten a lowly two per cent popularity mark in the poll.

An overwhelming 49 per cent of the respondents believe that the Opposition unity would translate into an electoral alliance against BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Moreover, the India Today poll shows Rahul Gandhi is the best person to lead such an alliance. He was backed by 46% of respondents.

However, in the case of a non-BJP, non-Congress front, Mamata Banerjee has the upper hand to lead the alliance, according to the survey.

Among the ministers in the Narendra Modi cabinet, Arun Jaitley has emerged as the best performer, according to the survey. Rajnath Singh and Sushma Swaraj follow close behind while Nitin Gadkari and Nirmala Sitharaman rank fourth and fifth, respectively.

Asked about Modi’s performance, 55 per cent of respondents voted favourably. However, this is a drop of six percentage points compared to MOTN January 2018. A similar percentage of respondents (56 per cent) are satisfied by the NDA government’s performance – a sharp drop from its peak of 71 per cent in the January 2017 MOTN.

Unemployment, price rise, and corruption remain the three biggest issues of concern for Indians. In fact, all three are issues that seem to have become bigger concerns since the January MOTN poll. Unemployment tops the list and 34 per cent of the respondents feel it is a burning issue, five percent more than in January 2018.

One of the biggest policy decisions of the Narendra Modi government, the pain of the shock November 2016 demonetisation exercise hasn’t gone away for India, according to MOTN July 2018. Nearly three-fourths of the respondents said that demonetisation caused more pain than gain; the number (73 per cent) is the same as what it was in MOTN January 2018 but is a steep rise from last year’s MOTN (61 per cent).

The India Today Group-Karvy Insights Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll was conducted by Karvy Insights Limited. A total of 12,100 interviews were conducted (68% in rural & 32% in urban areas) across 97 parliamentary constituencies in 194 assembly constituencies in 19 statesAndhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.

India News

LPG Aadhaar authentication mandatory for subsidy from October 1

Biometric Aadhaar authentication will be required for subsidised domestic LPG refills from October 1. Here is what changes for consumers who have and have not completed the process.

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LPG cylinder

Biometric Aadhaar authentication will become a requirement for domestic LPG consumers seeking to book refills at the regulated retail selling price with applicable subsidy from October 1, 2026.

The government has said the measure is aimed at ensuring that subsidised LPG reaches eligible households and at preventing the diversion of subsidised domestic cylinders for commercial and industrial use.

What changes from October 1

Consumers who have already completed biometric Aadhaar authentication will not have to repeat the process. Their LPG refills will continue as before.

For consumers who have not completed the authentication, refill booking at the regulated price with subsidy will be enabled after the authentication is completed.

As of September 19, 2026, 27.43 crore active domestic LPG consumers, or 89.9 per cent of the total, had completed biometric Aadhaar authentication, according to the Petroleum and Natural Gas Ministry.

How to complete Aadhaar authentication

Consumers who have not yet completed the process can do so through several channels.

Authentication can be completed during LPG delivery, at the distributor’s showroom or through the mobile applications of the three state-owned oil marketing companies.

Indane customers can use IndianOil ONE, Bharatgas customers can use HelloBPCL, while HP Gas customers can use HP PAY.

What if consumers do not complete authentication

The government has clarified that consumers who are unwilling or unable to complete biometric Aadhaar authentication can still receive LPG.

However, they will have to register their choice through the available digital channels of their oil marketing company, such as its consumer portal, mobile app, WhatsApp chatbot or IVRS.

Such consumers will be supplied LPG at the applicable market price without subsidy, in 5-kg or 10-kg cylinders, subject to local availability.

Why the government is introducing the requirement

According to the Petroleum and Natural Gas Ministry, linking each LPG connection to an Aadhaar-authenticated consumer is intended to prevent diversion of subsidised domestic cylinders and remove duplicate or ineligible connections.

The government has also said the measure is intended to make subsidy delivery more targeted and transparent.

Authentication deadline and progress

Consumers were initially asked to complete biometric Aadhaar authentication by June 30, 2026. The deadline was subsequently extended several times, with September 14 being the final extended deadline mentioned by the ministry.

The nationwide authentication drive has been underway since October 2023. The government said more than 12 crore SMS and WhatsApp messages had been sent as part of the outreach campaign.

The government has urged consumers who have not yet completed the process to do so before October 1.

LPG Aadhaar authentication becomes mandatory for subsidised domestic LPG refills from October 1. Consumers who have already completed biometric authentication need not do it again. Those who haven’t can still get LPG, but at the applicable market price without subsidy.

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BJP hits back at opposition over EC row, says disagreement is democracy

The BJP has defended reported differences among Election Commissioners, saying internal deliberations are part of a healthy democratic process.

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The BJP has defended the Election Commission amid a political row over reported differences among Election Commissioners concerning decisions linked to the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls.

BJP MP Sambit Patra said discussions and exchanges of views within the poll panel should be seen as part of the democratic process rather than as evidence of institutional dysfunction.

According to the BJP’s position, disagreement during official deliberations reflects the fact that members of an institution are able to put forward their views before decisions are taken.

BJP defends EC deliberations

Patra said that if the three Election Commissioners discuss and debate issues among themselves, such exchanges should not be characterised as dictatorship. He described such deliberations as a sign of a healthy democracy.

The BJP’s response came amid reports that Election Commissioners Sukhbir Singh Sandhu and Vivek Joshi had raised objections on multiple occasions over decisions and orders associated with the SIR exercise and electoral rolls.

The Election Commission has said that differences in views and observations are a normal part of deliberations within an institution. It has maintained that decisions, including those related to SIR, were taken unanimously.

Row centres on SIR process

The controversy comes against the backdrop of the ongoing political debate over the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls.

Opposition parties have raised concerns over the reported differences within the poll panel, while the BJP has sought to counter those arguments by pointing to the role of discussion and deliberation in institutional decision-making.

Patra also said the BJP’s understanding of the matter was based on media reports rather than access to the Election Commission’s internal documents. He said the documents, as reported, indicated that the SIR process was finalised after democratic deliberations and consensus.

What the Election Commission has said

The Election Commission has rejected the suggestion that the reported objections indicate a breakdown in its functioning.

It has maintained that differing opinions during deliberations are part of normal institutional functioning and that the decisions eventually taken by the commission were unanimous.

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IIT Bombay Professor Suryanarayana Doolla sent on leave amid student suicide row

IIT Bombay professor Suryanarayana Doolla has been sent on leave amid the ongoing student protests following Sahil Wakode’s death.

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IIT Bombay professor Suryanarayana Doolla has been sent on leave amid the ongoing controversy following the death of 20-year-old student Sahil Wakode, with protests on the campus seeking action against the professor.

Doolla, a faculty member in IIT Bombay’s Department of Energy Science and Engineering, had been involved in the examination incident concerning Wakode. The student was allegedly found using a mobile phone during a mid-semester examination and had uploaded the question paper to an AI platform to seek answers, according to the institute.

Why Suryanarayana Doolla is at the centre of the controversy

Doolla was the course instructor and examination invigilator during the examination and was involved in reporting the alleged examination malpractice to the institute’s authorities.

IIT Bombay has said Wakode was subsequently counselled by the instructor and the Head of Department and was assured that the examination incident would not adversely affect his academic career. The institute has also maintained that no disciplinary action had been initiated against the student before his death.

Wakode’s family, however, alleged harassment and caste-based discrimination. Mumbai Police registered a case based on the family’s complaint, with Doolla among those named. The allegations remain subject to investigation.

Student protests at IIT Bombay

Following Wakode’s death, students began protesting on the IIT Bombay campus and demanded action against Doolla.

IIT Bombay Director Professor Shireesh Kedare met the protesting students on September 20 and signed an 18-point charter of demands. The demands included action against Doolla.

Doolla was subsequently removed from the post of Dean Students Welfare amid the protests. The latest action comes as the controversy surrounding Wakode’s death and the allegations against the professor continue to be investigated.

Faculty members back Doolla

While students have demanded action against Doolla, IIT Bombay’s Faculty Forum has backed the professor, saying he was performing his duties as an invigilator and had followed the institute’s prescribed procedure after detecting the alleged examination malpractice.

The controversy involves the examination incident, allegations made by Wakode’s family and the police investigation into his death. The allegations against Doolla have not been established as facts and remain part of the ongoing investigation.

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