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Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

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Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Here’s an overview of how various parties fared in the post-election surveys telecast by different TV channels

By Sujit Bhar

Exit polls by their nature in this country have always been unreliable. However, the social implications and impact of these polls are huge. That is possibly why the Election Commission had banned exit polls during the long election period that spanned across five states—Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Punjab, Manipur and Uttarakhand.

At the end of the last polling date, on March 8, the exit polls were back with a vengeance, and the results were, for some, expected, while for others, pretty shocking. Already, UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has indicated that he is not averse to having a tie-up with Mayawati, if the needs be, just to keep the BJP away from government.

One look at the different exit polls will give a fair picture of what is to come and the possibilities that exist within the existing complex political system.

Uttar Pradesh (Total seats 403)

This has been the centrepiece of the entire election process. UP is where kings are made and destroyed, goes the saying. At this point, as it emerges from exit polls, these are the figures available:

The BJP tally varies from 285 (News24-Chanakya) down to 155-167 (India TV-C Voter). In between there are 251-179 (India Today-Axis), 185 (NewsX-MRC) and 164-176 (ABP-CSDS).

Here a caveat: While Chanakya had predicted the 2014 Lok Sabha polls with incredible accuracy–they said BJP would get 291, and BJP ended with 282 seats–they goofed up during the Bihar elections.

The position of other parties in UP are as follows:

SP and Congress alliance: ABP-CSDS gives them the best deal, 155-169, while the lowest comes from News24-Chanakya at 88 (+/- 15). India TV-C Voter gives them 135-147, while India Today-Axis gives then 88-112. News X-MRC says they will get 120.

BSP: No channel gives Mayawati’s party a good chance. The best deal is from India TV-C Voter, at 81-93, while the poorest is from News24-Chanakya at 27 (+/- 12). Their other high is from ABP-CSDS at 60-72.

Before leaving UP, let us take a look at what pre-poll predictions were like. A January 5 opinion poll, conducted by Axis My Media on behalf of India Today TV, had said this:

BJP: 206-216
SP: 92-97
BSP: 79-85
Cong: 5-9

Remember, the Congress-SP alliance had not been worked out yet, neither had the intra-family feud broken out within SP.

Feel free to draw your own conclusion about UP. On Saturday the truth will be out.

Punjab (117)

It is an even spread between Congress and AAP. News24-Chanakya marks the Congress at 54 (+/-9).They have given AAP the exact same, while Akali Dal has got a mere 9. India TV-C Voter gives AAP the best verdict, at 59-67, pushing Congress down to 41-49. ABP-CSDS thinks Congress will win (46-56) with AAP at 36-46, while News X-MRC has AAP at 55 and Congress the exact same.

Uttarakhand (70)

The BJP verdict is clear in this state. Again, News24-Chanakya has marked the party at 53 (+/- 7), while India Today-Axis puts them at 46-53. India TV-C Voter has an interesting take: BJP and Congress at 29-35. ABP-CSDS has BJP at 34-42, with Congress at 23-29, while NewsX-MRC has 38 for BJP and 30 for Congress. The huge fracas of the state, where the court reinstated the government, seems to be turned on its head. The problem will resurface in the case of a hung assembly.

Goa (40)

Here too the BJP has a sway. India Today-Axis has the most favourable outlook for the party, with 18-22 for BJP and 9-13 for Congress, while ABP-CSDS pegs BJP at 16-22 with 9-13 for Congress. NewsX-MRC puts BJP at 15 and Congress at 10, also promoting AAP to 7.

Manipur (60)

Here, too, BJP has a decent field. India Today-Axis puts the party at 16-22, with Congress winning at 30-36, but India TV-C Voter puts it at 25-31, with Congress lagging behind at 17-23. The infamous Congress rebels here might again play up.

UNRELIABLE

As said before, exit polls have remained extremely unreliable in the past in India.

Here are some.

Lok Sabha 2014

No exit poll (except Chanakya, of course) came anywhere near predicting the massive mandate that the BJP managed (282 seats) or the total eclipse of India’s Grand Old Party, the Congress (44).

Bihar assembly 2015

BJP was touted to win, what with PM Narendra Modi promising a stupendous sum of assistance (which never came) to Bihar. In the end, a clever alliance between JD(U), RJD and even the Congress (junior) beating all predictions with a thumping victory. BJP managed just a Nelson (111).

Tamil Nadu assembly 2016

Prediction: AIADMK set to move out of the picture. Result: Late Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa returned with 136 seats.

West Bengal assembly 2016

All signs were there on the ground, but no exit poll and no pre-election opinion poll would want to believe it. The media was blinkered and when Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress renewed their position with a mandate even more massive than the last time out, it was almost unbelievable.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

Union Budget 2026: What the middle class gains despite no income tax slab changes

Union Budget 2026 retains income tax slabs but offers indirect relief to the middle class through TCS cuts, simpler tax filing, cheaper medicines and higher job-creating expenditure.

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Union Budget 2026: what the middle class gains despite no income tax slab changes

Union Budget 2026 may not have delivered direct income tax relief to salaried taxpayers, but the government has introduced several indirect measures aimed at easing financial pressure on middle-class households.

While tax slabs remain unchanged, the Budget outlines steps to simplify compliance, reduce taxes on overseas spending, lower the cost of essential medicines, and support job creation through higher public spending.

Income tax status quo continues

The government has retained the existing income tax framework for individuals. Annual income up to Rs 12 lakh continues to remain tax-free, and with the Rs 75,000 standard deduction, effective tax-free income rises to Rs 12.75 lakh.

No changes have been announced in income tax slabs, signalling policy continuity rather than immediate relief for salaried taxpayers.

Compliance relief and tax rationalisation measures

A key focus of Budget 2026 is reducing compliance burdens and improving the taxpayer experience.

The government has proposed a reduction in Tax Collected at Source (TCS) on overseas tour programme packages to 2%, down from the earlier rates of 5% and 20%. TCS under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS) for education and medical expenses has also been cut to 2% from 5%, providing relief to families sending money abroad for essential purposes.

To ease return filing pressure, timelines have been staggered. Individual taxpayers filing ITR-1 and ITR-2 can continue to file returns till July 31, while non-audit businesses and trusts will now get time till August 31.

Protection for small investors

The Budget proposes taxing all share buybacks as capital gains instead of dividends, a move aimed at protecting minority retail investors.

In another relief measure, interest awarded by Motor Accident Claims Tribunal (MACT) to individuals will be exempt from income tax, and the applicable TDS will be removed.

A single-window system will also be introduced for submitting Form 15G and Form 15H through depositories for TDS on dividends and interest, simplifying compliance for senior citizens and small savers.

Cheaper medicines and essential products

Healthcare costs may ease slightly as the government has announced duty exemptions on about 17 cancer medicines. Personal imports of medicines for seven rare diseases will also be allowed duty-free.

In addition, customs duty relief has been extended to critical components used in the manufacture of microwave ovens, television equipment, leather goods and footwear, which could help moderate consumer prices.

Job creation through higher spending

The government has raised capital expenditure to over Rs 12 lakh crore, with allocations for railways, tourism, logistics and technology sectors. These investments are expected to support employment generation and long-term economic activity, indirectly benefiting middle-class households.

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India News

Budget 2026 balances high capex and growth, says PM Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Union Budget 2026 strikes a balance between high capital expenditure and strong growth while reinforcing reforms and fiscal discipline.

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pm modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday said the Union Budget 2026 strikes a fine balance between high capital expenditure and sustained economic growth, calling it a roadmap for long-term national development.

Speaking after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented her ninth consecutive Budget, the prime minister said the proposals reflect a vision of trust-based governance and a human-centric economic framework. He added that India is not just focused on being the fastest-growing economy but is working towards becoming the world’s third-largest economy.

PM Modi said the Budget also reinforces India’s strong global standing and will provide fresh momentum to the country’s reform agenda. According to him, the measures announced will energise what he described as India’s “reform express”.

The prime minister highlighted the Budget’s focus on promoting tourism in the northeastern region, noting that it would create new opportunities and support regional development.

On fiscal management, the finance minister retained the states’ share in the divisible pool of central taxes at 41 per cent. She announced that Rs 1.4 lakh crore has been provided to states as Finance Commission grants for 2026–27, in line with the recommendations of the commission.

The Finance Commission, chaired by Arvind Panagariya, had submitted its report to the President in November 2025 after consultations with states and Union Territories, several of which had sought a higher share.

Sitharaman pegged the fiscal deficit for 2026–27 at 4.3 per cent of GDP, lower than the revised estimate of 4.4 per cent for 2025–26. She also said the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline to 55.6 per cent in 2026–27 from 56.1 per cent in the previous fiscal.

A gradual reduction in the debt burden will help free up resources for priority sectors by lowering interest outgo, the finance minister said.

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India News

India to build seven high-speed rail corridors, Finance Minister announces

Union Budget 2026-27 unveiled seven high-speed rail corridors and a dedicated east-west freight corridor to boost sustainable transport and economic growth.

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India to build seven high-speed rail corridors, Finance Minister announces

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, presenting the Union Budget 2026-27 in Parliament on Sunday, announced that India will develop seven high-speed rail corridors connecting key cities across the country.

These corridors, described as ‘growth connectors’, aim to promote environmentally sustainable passenger transport systems. The proposed high-speed rail links will connect:

  • Mumbai and Pune
  • Hyderabad and Pune
  • Hyderabad and Bengaluru
  • Hyderabad and Chennai
  • Chennai and Bengaluru
  • Delhi and Varanasi
  • Varanasi and Siliguri

In addition to passenger rail, Sitharaman announced a dedicated east-west freight corridor connecting Dankuni in the east with Surat in the west. This initiative, along with the operationalisation of 22 new national waterways over the next five years, is intended to enhance multimodal transport and reduce logistics costs.

“These initiatives will strengthen freight movement and support sustainable cargo transportation,” the Finance Minister said.

The Budget also emphasizes infrastructure development in cities with populations over five lakh (Tier II and Tier III), which have emerged as key growth centres. Sitharaman further proposed a public capital expenditure of Rs 12.2 lakh crore for the financial year 2026-27.

She outlined that the Union Budget is guided by three core responsibilities—accelerating economic growth, fulfilling aspirations, and ensuring equitable access to resources for families, communities, and regions.

Describing the plans as part of a broader reform agenda, she added, “The ‘Reform Express’ is on its way.”

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