English हिन्दी
Connect with us

India News

Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

Published

on

Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Here’s an overview of how various parties fared in the post-election surveys telecast by different TV channels

By Sujit Bhar

Exit polls by their nature in this country have always been unreliable. However, the social implications and impact of these polls are huge. That is possibly why the Election Commission had banned exit polls during the long election period that spanned across five states—Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Punjab, Manipur and Uttarakhand.

At the end of the last polling date, on March 8, the exit polls were back with a vengeance, and the results were, for some, expected, while for others, pretty shocking. Already, UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has indicated that he is not averse to having a tie-up with Mayawati, if the needs be, just to keep the BJP away from government.

One look at the different exit polls will give a fair picture of what is to come and the possibilities that exist within the existing complex political system.

Uttar Pradesh (Total seats 403)

This has been the centrepiece of the entire election process. UP is where kings are made and destroyed, goes the saying. At this point, as it emerges from exit polls, these are the figures available:

The BJP tally varies from 285 (News24-Chanakya) down to 155-167 (India TV-C Voter). In between there are 251-179 (India Today-Axis), 185 (NewsX-MRC) and 164-176 (ABP-CSDS).

Here a caveat: While Chanakya had predicted the 2014 Lok Sabha polls with incredible accuracy–they said BJP would get 291, and BJP ended with 282 seats–they goofed up during the Bihar elections.

The position of other parties in UP are as follows:

SP and Congress alliance: ABP-CSDS gives them the best deal, 155-169, while the lowest comes from News24-Chanakya at 88 (+/- 15). India TV-C Voter gives them 135-147, while India Today-Axis gives then 88-112. News X-MRC says they will get 120.

BSP: No channel gives Mayawati’s party a good chance. The best deal is from India TV-C Voter, at 81-93, while the poorest is from News24-Chanakya at 27 (+/- 12). Their other high is from ABP-CSDS at 60-72.

Before leaving UP, let us take a look at what pre-poll predictions were like. A January 5 opinion poll, conducted by Axis My Media on behalf of India Today TV, had said this:

BJP: 206-216
SP: 92-97
BSP: 79-85
Cong: 5-9

Remember, the Congress-SP alliance had not been worked out yet, neither had the intra-family feud broken out within SP.

Feel free to draw your own conclusion about UP. On Saturday the truth will be out.

Punjab (117)

It is an even spread between Congress and AAP. News24-Chanakya marks the Congress at 54 (+/-9).They have given AAP the exact same, while Akali Dal has got a mere 9. India TV-C Voter gives AAP the best verdict, at 59-67, pushing Congress down to 41-49. ABP-CSDS thinks Congress will win (46-56) with AAP at 36-46, while News X-MRC has AAP at 55 and Congress the exact same.

Uttarakhand (70)

The BJP verdict is clear in this state. Again, News24-Chanakya has marked the party at 53 (+/- 7), while India Today-Axis puts them at 46-53. India TV-C Voter has an interesting take: BJP and Congress at 29-35. ABP-CSDS has BJP at 34-42, with Congress at 23-29, while NewsX-MRC has 38 for BJP and 30 for Congress. The huge fracas of the state, where the court reinstated the government, seems to be turned on its head. The problem will resurface in the case of a hung assembly.

Goa (40)

Here too the BJP has a sway. India Today-Axis has the most favourable outlook for the party, with 18-22 for BJP and 9-13 for Congress, while ABP-CSDS pegs BJP at 16-22 with 9-13 for Congress. NewsX-MRC puts BJP at 15 and Congress at 10, also promoting AAP to 7.

Manipur (60)

Here, too, BJP has a decent field. India Today-Axis puts the party at 16-22, with Congress winning at 30-36, but India TV-C Voter puts it at 25-31, with Congress lagging behind at 17-23. The infamous Congress rebels here might again play up.

UNRELIABLE

As said before, exit polls have remained extremely unreliable in the past in India.

Here are some.

Lok Sabha 2014

No exit poll (except Chanakya, of course) came anywhere near predicting the massive mandate that the BJP managed (282 seats) or the total eclipse of India’s Grand Old Party, the Congress (44).

Bihar assembly 2015

BJP was touted to win, what with PM Narendra Modi promising a stupendous sum of assistance (which never came) to Bihar. In the end, a clever alliance between JD(U), RJD and even the Congress (junior) beating all predictions with a thumping victory. BJP managed just a Nelson (111).

Tamil Nadu assembly 2016

Prediction: AIADMK set to move out of the picture. Result: Late Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa returned with 136 seats.

West Bengal assembly 2016

All signs were there on the ground, but no exit poll and no pre-election opinion poll would want to believe it. The media was blinkered and when Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress renewed their position with a mandate even more massive than the last time out, it was almost unbelievable.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

Delhi pollution: Environment minister apologises, blames AAP as AQI stays very poor

Delhi Environment Minister Manjinder Singh Sirsa apologised for pollution but blamed AAP for the crisis, saying air quality cannot be fixed in months as AQI remains very poor.

Published

on

Delhi Environment Minister Manjinder Singh Sirsa on Tuesday apologised to residents for the city’s worsening air quality but squarely blamed the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) for the pollution crisis, saying the problem could not be resolved within months.

Calling pollution a “disease” inherited from the previous dispensation, Sirsa said it was “impossible for any elected government to reduce AQI in 9–10 months”. He claimed the BJP-led government was working to address the issue and asserted that the air quality index (AQI) had shown daily improvement.

“I apologise for the pollution in Delhi,” the minister said, adding that the present government was doing “better work” compared to what he termed the “dishonest” AAP administration.

Air quality remains very poor across the city

Sirsa’s remarks came as Delhi continued to reel under very poor air quality conditions, though the situation improved marginally from the “severe” category that prevailed between December 13 and 15.

According to official pollution monitoring data, Delhi’s overall AQI stood at 381. Wazipur recorded the highest AQI at 434, followed by Jahangirpuri at 430. Anand Vihar and Ashok Vihar also remained in the severe category.

In November, the capital had experienced prolonged spells of severe pollution, with AQI levels staying in that range from November 11 to 26.

Political blame game intensifies

The pollution crisis has triggered a sharp political face-off between the ruling BJP and the opposition AAP. AAP leader Saurabh Bhardwaj questioned why Prime Minister Narendra Modi had not addressed the issue publicly, while the Congress demanded an immediate discussion on air pollution in the Lok Sabha.

The controversy escalated further after Singapore issued an advisory for its citizens in India over Delhi’s air quality. Bhardwaj shared the advisory on social media, calling it an “international embarrassment”.

Responding to this, Delhi BJP spokesperson Praveen Shankar Kapoor said such advisories were routine whenever pollution levels rise. He also took a swipe at the AAP, recalling that during earlier years, some foreign governments had reduced posting durations for their staff in Delhi and designated the city as a “no family station”.

Meanwhile, Punjab Chief Minister and senior AAP leader Bhagwant Mann rejected allegations that his state was contributing to Delhi’s pollution. He said the AQI in Punjab cities ranged between 70 and 100, significantly lower than that of the national capital, and urged the Centre to stop blaming Punjab.

Continue Reading

India News

Rahul Gandhi Attacks Centre over G RAM G bill, calls it an attack on MGNREGA’s core principles

Rahul Gandhi has strongly opposed the G RAM G bill, accusing the Modi government of undermining MGNREGA and shifting the financial burden of rural employment schemes onto states.

Published

on

Rahul-Gandhi

Congress MP and Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi on Monday sharpened his attack on the Centre over the introduction of the G RAM G bill in the Lok Sabha, alleging that the proposed law weakens the foundations of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) and undermines the rights of the rural poor.

The bill, formally titled the Viksit Bharat Guarantee for Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission (Gramin) Bill, 2025, has been brought in to replace MGNREGA, which was enacted in 2005 under the UPA government.

Reacting to the move, Rahul Gandhi described the legislation as an “insult to the ideals of Mahatma Gandhi” and accused the Narendra Modi-led government of attempting to dismantle a scheme that guarantees livelihood security to millions of rural households.

Rahul Gandhi’s sharp criticism of the G RAM G bill

In a post on X, Gandhi alleged that Prime Minister Modi has consistently opposed the ideas associated with Mahatma Gandhi and has been trying to weaken MGNREGA since coming to power in 2014. He asserted that the Congress would oppose any attempt to dilute or dismantle the employment guarantee framework.

“Modiji has a deep hatred for two things – the ideas of Mahatma Gandhi and the rights of the poor,” Gandhi said, calling MGNREGA a living embodiment of Gandhi’s vision of village self-rule. He also highlighted the role of the scheme as an economic shield for rural India, particularly during the COVID period.

According to Gandhi, the Centre is now “determined to wipe out MGNREGA completely” by replacing it with a new framework that centralises power and alters the funding structure.

Opposition protests in Parliament

The introduction of the G RAM G bill triggered protests from several opposition MPs inside and outside Parliament. Congress MPs, including Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and Shashi Tharoor, raised objections to key provisions of the bill, particularly the removal of Mahatma Gandhi’s name from the scheme.

Opposition leaders argued that MGNREGA is rooted in the right to employment, decentralised decision-making by villages, and a funding structure where the Centre bears the full wage cost and most of the material expenses.

How G RAM G differs from MGNREGA

Rahul Gandhi pointed out that under MGNREGA, the Centre pays 100 per cent of wages for unskilled workers and 75 per cent of material costs, ensuring steady employment based on demand.

The new G RAM G bill proposes a shift to normative funding, under which states will have to bear 40 per cent of the overall costs. Gandhi claimed this would reduce work availability once budgets are exhausted or during crop harvest seasons, leaving rural workers without employment for extended periods.

The funding ratio for northeastern and Himalayan states has been set at 90:10, while union territories will be fully funded by the Centre. Of the estimated annual expenditure of Rs 1.51 lakh crore, the central government’s share is projected at Rs 95,692 crore.

Leaders from several opposition parties, including those from a key BJP ally, have also expressed concerns over the increased financial burden on states.

Government’s defence of the bill

Government sources have maintained that the G RAM G bill aligns with the broader ‘Viksit Bharat 2047’ vision. According to them, the shift from a demand-based to a normative funding model brings the scheme in line with budgeting practices followed for other central government programmes.

However, the sharp political pushback indicates that the replacement of MGNREGA is set to remain a major flashpoint in Parliament in the coming days.

Continue Reading

India News

Priyanka Gandhi leads protest against G Ram G Bill, calls move to replace MGNREGA unconstitutional

Priyanka Gandhi objected in Lok Sabha to the Centre’s G Ram G Bill, saying it weakens MGNREGA and dilutes the constitutional right to employment.

Published

on

Senior Congress leader and Wayanad MP Priyanka Gandhi Vadra on Tuesday led a protest in Parliament against the Centre’s move to replace the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) with the proposed Viksit Bharat Rozgar and Ajeevika Mission (Gramin) Bill, 2025, popularly referred to as the G Ram G Bill.

Holding up photographs of Mahatma Gandhi on the Parliament premises, Congress MPs objected to the introduction of the Bill, alleging that it weakens a landmark welfare law that has supported rural livelihoods for two decades.

Priyanka Gandhi opposes Bill in Lok Sabha

During proceedings in the Lok Sabha, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan sought permission to introduce the new Bill, which aims to replace MGNREGA. Priyanka Gandhi opposed the move under Rule 72(1) of the Rules of Procedure and Conduct of Business, registering what she described as a “strong objection”.

She said MGNREGA had been a revolutionary law since its introduction in 2005 by the UPA government and had enjoyed support across party lines. According to her, the scheme guarantees 100 days of employment annually to the poorest sections in rural India and has played a key role in strengthening the rural economy.

Concerns over funding model and role of Gram Sabhas

Priyanka Gandhi flagged concerns over changes proposed in the new Bill, particularly the shift from a demand-based funding model to a system where allocations are decided in advance by the Centre. She argued that MGNREGA works on demand from the ground, with Gram Sabhas empowered to assess local employment needs.

“The right to employment is being weakened, and this goes against the Constitution,” she said, adding that the proposed law reduces the role of Gram Sabhas and dilutes the core principle of guaranteed work.

She also pointed out that the Centre’s funding share for the scheme has come down to 60 per cent for most states, warning that this could strain state finances at a time when several states are already awaiting GST dues.

Objection to renaming and passage without discussion

The Congress leader questioned what she described as a “craze” to rename existing schemes, noting that such changes involve additional costs. She urged the government not to rush the legislation and to withdraw the Bill for wider discussion in the House.

When members from the treasury benches made a remark referring to her family, Priyanka Gandhi responded by saying that Mahatma Gandhi may not belong to her family but is regarded as family by the entire nation.

Wider opposition, government defence

Several opposition leaders echoed these concerns. Congress MP Shashi Tharoor opposed the Bill, calling it immoral to remove Mahatma Gandhi’s name from the scheme. Other विपक्ष members raised issues over normative funding and the reduced central contribution.

Government sources, however, defended the Bill, saying it aligns with the Viksit Bharat 2047 vision. They argued that normative funding allows predictable and rational budgeting, unlike a demand-based model that can lead to uncertainty, while still ensuring employment or unemployment allowance for eligible workers.

BJP leader and former Minority Affairs Minister Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi dismissed the opposition’s protest, alleging that the objection stemmed from the inclusion of Lord Ram’s name in the scheme.

Continue Reading

Trending

© Copyright 2022 APNLIVE.com