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Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

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Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Here’s an overview of how various parties fared in the post-election surveys telecast by different TV channels

By Sujit Bhar

Exit polls by their nature in this country have always been unreliable. However, the social implications and impact of these polls are huge. That is possibly why the Election Commission had banned exit polls during the long election period that spanned across five states—Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Punjab, Manipur and Uttarakhand.

At the end of the last polling date, on March 8, the exit polls were back with a vengeance, and the results were, for some, expected, while for others, pretty shocking. Already, UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has indicated that he is not averse to having a tie-up with Mayawati, if the needs be, just to keep the BJP away from government.

One look at the different exit polls will give a fair picture of what is to come and the possibilities that exist within the existing complex political system.

Uttar Pradesh (Total seats 403)

This has been the centrepiece of the entire election process. UP is where kings are made and destroyed, goes the saying. At this point, as it emerges from exit polls, these are the figures available:

The BJP tally varies from 285 (News24-Chanakya) down to 155-167 (India TV-C Voter). In between there are 251-179 (India Today-Axis), 185 (NewsX-MRC) and 164-176 (ABP-CSDS).

Here a caveat: While Chanakya had predicted the 2014 Lok Sabha polls with incredible accuracy–they said BJP would get 291, and BJP ended with 282 seats–they goofed up during the Bihar elections.

The position of other parties in UP are as follows:

SP and Congress alliance: ABP-CSDS gives them the best deal, 155-169, while the lowest comes from News24-Chanakya at 88 (+/- 15). India TV-C Voter gives them 135-147, while India Today-Axis gives then 88-112. News X-MRC says they will get 120.

BSP: No channel gives Mayawati’s party a good chance. The best deal is from India TV-C Voter, at 81-93, while the poorest is from News24-Chanakya at 27 (+/- 12). Their other high is from ABP-CSDS at 60-72.

Before leaving UP, let us take a look at what pre-poll predictions were like. A January 5 opinion poll, conducted by Axis My Media on behalf of India Today TV, had said this:

BJP: 206-216
SP: 92-97
BSP: 79-85
Cong: 5-9

Remember, the Congress-SP alliance had not been worked out yet, neither had the intra-family feud broken out within SP.

Feel free to draw your own conclusion about UP. On Saturday the truth will be out.

Punjab (117)

It is an even spread between Congress and AAP. News24-Chanakya marks the Congress at 54 (+/-9).They have given AAP the exact same, while Akali Dal has got a mere 9. India TV-C Voter gives AAP the best verdict, at 59-67, pushing Congress down to 41-49. ABP-CSDS thinks Congress will win (46-56) with AAP at 36-46, while News X-MRC has AAP at 55 and Congress the exact same.

Uttarakhand (70)

The BJP verdict is clear in this state. Again, News24-Chanakya has marked the party at 53 (+/- 7), while India Today-Axis puts them at 46-53. India TV-C Voter has an interesting take: BJP and Congress at 29-35. ABP-CSDS has BJP at 34-42, with Congress at 23-29, while NewsX-MRC has 38 for BJP and 30 for Congress. The huge fracas of the state, where the court reinstated the government, seems to be turned on its head. The problem will resurface in the case of a hung assembly.

Goa (40)

Here too the BJP has a sway. India Today-Axis has the most favourable outlook for the party, with 18-22 for BJP and 9-13 for Congress, while ABP-CSDS pegs BJP at 16-22 with 9-13 for Congress. NewsX-MRC puts BJP at 15 and Congress at 10, also promoting AAP to 7.

Manipur (60)

Here, too, BJP has a decent field. India Today-Axis puts the party at 16-22, with Congress winning at 30-36, but India TV-C Voter puts it at 25-31, with Congress lagging behind at 17-23. The infamous Congress rebels here might again play up.

UNRELIABLE

As said before, exit polls have remained extremely unreliable in the past in India.

Here are some.

Lok Sabha 2014

No exit poll (except Chanakya, of course) came anywhere near predicting the massive mandate that the BJP managed (282 seats) or the total eclipse of India’s Grand Old Party, the Congress (44).

Bihar assembly 2015

BJP was touted to win, what with PM Narendra Modi promising a stupendous sum of assistance (which never came) to Bihar. In the end, a clever alliance between JD(U), RJD and even the Congress (junior) beating all predictions with a thumping victory. BJP managed just a Nelson (111).

Tamil Nadu assembly 2016

Prediction: AIADMK set to move out of the picture. Result: Late Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa returned with 136 seats.

West Bengal assembly 2016

All signs were there on the ground, but no exit poll and no pre-election opinion poll would want to believe it. The media was blinkered and when Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress renewed their position with a mandate even more massive than the last time out, it was almost unbelievable.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

Election Commission responds after Kejriwal questions BJP’s involvement in home voting process

Upon approval, a polling team, comprising election officials and security personnel, will visit the voter’s residence prior to election day to facilitate the voting process.

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The Election Commission of India (ECI) issued a detailed clarification regarding the home voting facility for the upcoming Delhi Assembly elections scheduled for February 5, 2025. This initiative, designed to enhance accessibility for senior citizens (over 85 years old) and persons with disabilities (PwD), requires eligible voters to submit Form 12D to apply.

Upon approval, a polling team, comprising election officials and security personnel, will visit the voter’s residence prior to election day to facilitate the voting process.

Crucially, the ECI clarified that candidates or their authorized representatives will be permitted to accompany the polling team during these home visits. This provision addresses concerns raised by Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader Arvind Kejriwal, who had previously highlighted a video showing BJP representatives present during a home voting event.

While the ECI statement did not directly mention Kejriwal or any specific political party, the inclusion of candidate representatives aims to ensure transparency and alleviate concerns about potential irregularities. The commission’s statement emphasizes that the presence of representatives is permissible to uphold fairness and prevent any accusations of undue influence.

The ECI has received a significant number of applications for this facility: 6,447 from senior citizens and 1,058 from PwD voters. To date, 1,271 senior citizens and 120 PwD voters have already cast their ballots through this home voting system. The process itself involves the polling team providing the voter with a ballot paper, overseeing the casting of the vote, and ensuring strict adherence to ECI guidelines regarding confidentiality. To maintain transparency and accountability, the entire process is recorded on video.

The ECI unequivocally stated that participation in the home voting option is entirely voluntary. Voters choosing this method will not be allowed to cast their vote at a regular polling station on election day.

The commission reiterated its commitment to conducting free and fair elections and underscored the importance of this initiative in promoting inclusive participation in the democratic process. Voters facing any difficulties are urged to contact their local Returning Officer (RO) or district Election Officer (DEO), or utilize the central helpline at 1950.

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India News

76th Republic Day: US sends warm wishes to India, says defining relationship of the 21st century

The meeting with his Quad counterparts—External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar of India, Takeshi Iwaya of Japan, and Penny Wong of Australia—focused on enhancing economic opportunities and ensuring peace and security in the Indo-Pacific. It served as a practical demonstration of the commitment to the strategic vision articulated in his Republic Day statement.

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The United States marked India’s 76th Republic Day with effusive praise, highlighting the enduring strength of the world’s largest democracy and the burgeoning partnership between the two nations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in a statement released on the occasion, extended warm congratulations to the people of India, emphasizing the significance of the Indian Constitution as the bedrock of this vibrant democracy. He went beyond simple well-wishes, however, painting a picture of a rapidly strengthening bilateral relationship destined for even greater heights.

Rubio’s statement explicitly described the US-India partnership as “the defining relationship of the 21st century,” a bold assertion reflecting the growing strategic alignment and mutual economic interests between the two nations. This statement was not merely ceremonial; it underscored the deepening cooperation across various sectors, from space research to joint efforts within the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad).

The Quad, comprising the US, India, Japan, and Australia, received significant attention in Rubio’s remarks. He emphasized the alliance’s crucial role in promoting a “free, open, and prosperous” Indo-Pacific region, a clear signal of the shared commitment to counterbalancing China’s influence in the region.

This emphasis was reinforced by Rubio’s actions earlier in the week, hosting a crucial meeting of Quad foreign ministers at the US Department of State. This meeting, his first official engagement as Secretary of State, underscored the immediate priority given to strengthening the Quad alliance and its collaborative efforts.

The meeting with his Quad counterparts—External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar of India, Takeshi Iwaya of Japan, and Penny Wong of Australia—focused on enhancing economic opportunities and ensuring peace and security in the Indo-Pacific. It served as a practical demonstration of the commitment to the strategic vision articulated in his Republic Day statement.

Furthermore, Secretary Rubio’s bilateral meeting with External Affairs Minister Jaishankar in Washington D.C. further cemented the strengthening ties between the two countries. The discussions covered a broad range of topics, including regional issues and avenues for further deepening the US-India relationship.

A notable point of discussion, as highlighted in an official press release, included a shared commitment to addressing concerns related to irregular migration, an area of mutual interest requiring collaborative solutions. This commitment, alongside the focus on economic ties, demonstrated the multifaceted nature of the burgeoning partnership, extending beyond strategic security concerns.

India’s own Republic Day celebrations showcased the nation’s unique blend of cultural diversity, unity, and military strength. The grand parade on Kartavya Path served as a vivid display of national pride and the successful integration of diverse elements into a cohesive and powerful nation. The presence of Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto as the Chief Guest further underscored India’s growing global influence and its capacity to foster strong relationships with key international partners.

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India News

Ratan Tata featured in Jharkhand’s Republic Day tableau, pic surfaces

By celebrating both its industrial achievements and its vibrant cultural traditions, the tableau offered a nuanced and multifaceted portrayal of Jharkhand, highlighting its progress while deeply respecting its heritage.

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Jharkhand’s Republic Day tableau, a vibrant spectacle of colour and movement, presented a compelling narrative of the state’s journey from its rich heritage to its remarkable progress. The tableau, aptly titled “Swarnim Jharkhand: A Tradition of Heritage and Progress,” served as a powerful visual testament to the state’s multifaceted identity. Central to this narrative was the pivotal role played by the late industrialist, Ratan Tata, whose visionary leadership laid the groundwork for much of Jharkhand’s subsequent development.

The tableau’s design was meticulously crafted to showcase this multifaceted narrative. At its heart was Jamshedpur, India’s first planned industrial city, a legacy of Tata’s pioneering efforts. This iconic city, depicted in vivid detail, served as a powerful symbol of industrial growth and modernization. However, the tableau astutely avoided portraying a solely industrial narrative. It carefully integrated elements celebrating Jharkhand’s cultural richness and its commitment to social progress.

A striking image of two young girls engaged with laptop computers underscored Jharkhand’s significant strides in education. This symbolized the state’s dedication to expanding educational access, particularly for tribal children in both urban and rural areas, representing a crucial investment in the future.

The tableau cleverly juxtaposed this modern image with vibrant representations of traditional art forms. Sohrai and Khobar paintings, meticulously crafted by tribal artists, were displayed prominently, showcasing the enduring legacy of Jharkhand’s artistic heritage. Adding to the spectacle, performers enacted the energetic Chhau dance of Seraikela, a captivating dance form deeply rooted in the state’s cultural identity.

The tableau also subtly highlighted the contributions of women in Jharkhand’s economic landscape, acknowledging their significant role in generating employment and driving economic growth. This balanced depiction of industrial progress and cultural preservation made the tableau a truly comprehensive representation of Jharkhand’s identity.

By celebrating both its industrial achievements and its vibrant cultural traditions, the tableau offered a nuanced and multifaceted portrayal of Jharkhand, highlighting its progress while deeply respecting its heritage.

The inclusion of the Jaduguda uranium plant subtly acknowledged the state’s contribution to India’s nuclear energy program. In essence, the tableau was a powerful and memorable celebration of Jharkhand’s journey, skillfully weaving together its past, present, and future.

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