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Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

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Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Here’s an overview of how various parties fared in the post-election surveys telecast by different TV channels

By Sujit Bhar

Exit polls by their nature in this country have always been unreliable. However, the social implications and impact of these polls are huge. That is possibly why the Election Commission had banned exit polls during the long election period that spanned across five states—Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Punjab, Manipur and Uttarakhand.

At the end of the last polling date, on March 8, the exit polls were back with a vengeance, and the results were, for some, expected, while for others, pretty shocking. Already, UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has indicated that he is not averse to having a tie-up with Mayawati, if the needs be, just to keep the BJP away from government.

One look at the different exit polls will give a fair picture of what is to come and the possibilities that exist within the existing complex political system.

Uttar Pradesh (Total seats 403)

This has been the centrepiece of the entire election process. UP is where kings are made and destroyed, goes the saying. At this point, as it emerges from exit polls, these are the figures available:

The BJP tally varies from 285 (News24-Chanakya) down to 155-167 (India TV-C Voter). In between there are 251-179 (India Today-Axis), 185 (NewsX-MRC) and 164-176 (ABP-CSDS).

Here a caveat: While Chanakya had predicted the 2014 Lok Sabha polls with incredible accuracy–they said BJP would get 291, and BJP ended with 282 seats–they goofed up during the Bihar elections.

The position of other parties in UP are as follows:

SP and Congress alliance: ABP-CSDS gives them the best deal, 155-169, while the lowest comes from News24-Chanakya at 88 (+/- 15). India TV-C Voter gives them 135-147, while India Today-Axis gives then 88-112. News X-MRC says they will get 120.

BSP: No channel gives Mayawati’s party a good chance. The best deal is from India TV-C Voter, at 81-93, while the poorest is from News24-Chanakya at 27 (+/- 12). Their other high is from ABP-CSDS at 60-72.

Before leaving UP, let us take a look at what pre-poll predictions were like. A January 5 opinion poll, conducted by Axis My Media on behalf of India Today TV, had said this:

BJP: 206-216
SP: 92-97
BSP: 79-85
Cong: 5-9

Remember, the Congress-SP alliance had not been worked out yet, neither had the intra-family feud broken out within SP.

Feel free to draw your own conclusion about UP. On Saturday the truth will be out.

Punjab (117)

It is an even spread between Congress and AAP. News24-Chanakya marks the Congress at 54 (+/-9).They have given AAP the exact same, while Akali Dal has got a mere 9. India TV-C Voter gives AAP the best verdict, at 59-67, pushing Congress down to 41-49. ABP-CSDS thinks Congress will win (46-56) with AAP at 36-46, while News X-MRC has AAP at 55 and Congress the exact same.

Uttarakhand (70)

The BJP verdict is clear in this state. Again, News24-Chanakya has marked the party at 53 (+/- 7), while India Today-Axis puts them at 46-53. India TV-C Voter has an interesting take: BJP and Congress at 29-35. ABP-CSDS has BJP at 34-42, with Congress at 23-29, while NewsX-MRC has 38 for BJP and 30 for Congress. The huge fracas of the state, where the court reinstated the government, seems to be turned on its head. The problem will resurface in the case of a hung assembly.

Goa (40)

Here too the BJP has a sway. India Today-Axis has the most favourable outlook for the party, with 18-22 for BJP and 9-13 for Congress, while ABP-CSDS pegs BJP at 16-22 with 9-13 for Congress. NewsX-MRC puts BJP at 15 and Congress at 10, also promoting AAP to 7.

Manipur (60)

Here, too, BJP has a decent field. India Today-Axis puts the party at 16-22, with Congress winning at 30-36, but India TV-C Voter puts it at 25-31, with Congress lagging behind at 17-23. The infamous Congress rebels here might again play up.

UNRELIABLE

As said before, exit polls have remained extremely unreliable in the past in India.

Here are some.

Lok Sabha 2014

No exit poll (except Chanakya, of course) came anywhere near predicting the massive mandate that the BJP managed (282 seats) or the total eclipse of India’s Grand Old Party, the Congress (44).

Bihar assembly 2015

BJP was touted to win, what with PM Narendra Modi promising a stupendous sum of assistance (which never came) to Bihar. In the end, a clever alliance between JD(U), RJD and even the Congress (junior) beating all predictions with a thumping victory. BJP managed just a Nelson (111).

Tamil Nadu assembly 2016

Prediction: AIADMK set to move out of the picture. Result: Late Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa returned with 136 seats.

West Bengal assembly 2016

All signs were there on the ground, but no exit poll and no pre-election opinion poll would want to believe it. The media was blinkered and when Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress renewed their position with a mandate even more massive than the last time out, it was almost unbelievable.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

What is SACHET, the app PM Modi mentioned in Mann Ki Baat?

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PM Modi on BJP Foundation day

During his Mann Ki Baat broadcast on Sunday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi highlighted the Sachet app, an innovative alert system developed by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA).

Rolled out across India, Sachet harnesses geo-intelligence to provide near-instantaneous disaster warnings through diverse channels like SMS, web browser notifications, and RSS feeds.

The app’s website advises users to stay alert for SMS alerts marked with the “XX-NDMAEW” header. Beyond disaster alerts, Sachet offers weather updates and allows users to track multiple locations, delivering notifications directly to desktops or laptops. Subscribed entities, such as news outlets, can access alerts via RSS feeds to amplify public warnings.

The app has gained significant traction, with roughly 5.4 crore downloads in Uttar Pradesh, 4.6 crore in Delhi, and 1.1 crore in Maharashtra, underscoring its vital role in bolstering disaster readiness.

Modi praised Sachet as a testament to India’s use of technology to empower citizens, ensuring timely information to mitigate risks during emergencies.

The Prime Minister also addressed the tragic Pahalgam terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir on April 22, which claimed 26 lives, predominantly tourists, in the tranquil Baisaran valley.

The investigation has been handed over to the National Investigation Agency (NIA), with the Ministry of Home Affairs urging a swift probe into one of the region’s most lethal civilian attacks in nearly two decades.

The NIA, in a press release, outlined its approach: “Under the supervision of senior officers, including an Inspector General, Deputy Inspector General, and Superintendent of Police, our teams are meticulously interviewing eyewitnesses to piece together the chilling sequence of events.”

The agency is delving into granular details to identify the culprits, linked to The Resistance Front, an affiliate of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba. As the NIA intensifies its efforts, the focus remains on securing justice and fortifying security, especially with the Amarnath Yatra scheduled to commence on July 3, a time when Kashmir expects a surge in visitors.

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NIA takes over Pahalgam terror attack case from J&K Police

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The National Investigation Agency (NIA) has assumed control of the investigation into the devastating Pahalgam terror attack, taking over from the Jammu and Kashmir Police to probe the April 22, 2025, assault that killed 26 tourists, including one Nepali citizen, and injured over three dozen others.

The agency registered a fresh First Information Report (FIR) late Saturday, April 26, following directives from the Ministry of Home Affairs’ Counter Terrorism and Counter Radicalisation (CTCR) division, prompted by the attack’s severity and the involvement of The Resistance Front (TRF), a proxy of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), which claimed responsibility.

Five days after the attack and four days after an NIA team, led by a Deputy Inspector General, visited the Baisaran meadow attack site near Pahalgam, the agency formally launched its probe. The team had initially supported local police in investigating what is considered the deadliest civilian attack in Jammu and Kashmir in nearly two decades.

The NIA is now tasked with conducting a comprehensive assessment, collecting forensic evidence, and identifying the perpetrators of the 2 p.m. massacre, which shattered the tranquility of a popular tourist destination. Helicopters were deployed to evacuate the wounded, underscoring the scale of the tragedy.

The attack coincides with a surge in tourist arrivals to Kashmir, raising concerns ahead of the 38-day Amarnath Yatra, set to begin on July 3. Against this backdrop, intelligence agencies have compiled a list of 14 local terrorists, aged 20 to 40, actively supporting Pakistan-based operatives with logistics and ground operations.

These individuals, affiliated with Hizbul Mujahideen, LeT, and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), include Adil Rehman Dentoo (LeT’s Sopore commander since 2021), Asif Ahmed Sheikh (JeM’s Awantipora commander since 2022), Ahsan Ahmed Sheikh (LeT, Pulwama, since 2023), Haris Nazir (LeT, Pulwama, since 2023), Aamir Nazir Wani (JeM, Pulwama, since 2024), Yawar Ahmed Bhat (JeM, Pulwama, since 2024), Asif Ahmed Khanday (Hizbul Mujahideen, Shopian, since 2015), Naseer Ahmed Wani (LeT, Shopian, since 2019), Shahid Ahmed Kutay (LeT/TRF, Shopian, since 2023), Aamir Ahmed Dar (LeT, Shopian, since 2023), Adnan Safi Dar (LeT/TRF, Shopian, since 2024), Zubair Ahmed Wani (Hizbul Mujahideen’s Anantnag commander since 2018), Haroon Rashid Ganai (Hizbul Mujahideen, Anantnag, trained in PoK in 2018), and Zakir Ahmed Ganie (LeT, Kulgam).

Security forces have intensified operations in South Kashmir, particularly Anantnag and Pulwama, targeting these operatives to disrupt terror networks. The NIA is also exploring links between these 14 individuals and five terrorists involved in the Pahalgam attack, including three Pakistani nationals—Asif Fauji, Suleman Shah, and Abu Talha—whose sketches were released earlier, and two local operatives, Adil Guri and Ahsan, with a ₹20 lakh bounty on each.

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Terrorists shoot dead social activist Ghulam Rasool in J&K’s Kupwara

His words underscore a growing international consensus on the need for collective action to address the scourge of militancy, particularly as India-Pakistan tensions flare.

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In a grim reminder of the region’s fragile security, suspected terrorists shot dead 45-year-old social activist Ghulam Rasool Magray in his home in Kandi Khas, Kupwara district, late Saturday night.

According to officials, the assailants fired at Magray inside his residence, and despite being rushed to a hospital, he was declared dead on arrival. The motive behind targeting the activist remains unclear, deepening the unease in a region still reeling from the recent Pahalgam terror attack.

Authorities have launched an investigation to uncover the circumstances and perpetrators of this brazen killing.

The murder follows the devastating Pahalgam attack on April 22, which claimed 26 lives, mostly tourists, and was attributed to The Resistance Front, a front for the banned Lashkar-e-Taiba. In response, security forces have escalated their crackdown on the terror ecosystem. On Saturday night, officials demolished the homes of three active terrorists across Jammu and Kashmir, signaling zero tolerance for militancy. In Shopian’s Wandina, the residence of Adnan Shafi, who joined terrorist ranks in 2024, was razed. In Pulwama, the house of Amir Nazir met a similar fate, while in Bandipora, the home of Jameel Ahmad Shergojri, a Lashkar-e-Taiba operative since 2016, was reduced to rubble. These actions reflect the government’s resolve to dismantle terror networks in the wake of escalating violence.

The Pahalgam attack has reverberated beyond India’s borders, drawing condemnation from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during a phone call with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday, April 26. In a statement shared on X by Iran’s embassy in New Delhi, Pezeshkian labeled the attack “inhumane” and called for regional solidarity to combat terrorism. “Such tragedies compel nations to unite in empathy and cooperation to uproot terrorism and secure lasting peace,” he said. His words underscore a growing international consensus on the need for collective action to address the scourge of militancy, particularly as India-Pakistan tensions flare.

The killing of Magray comes amid heightened India-Pakistan friction, with New Delhi suspending the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty and Islamabad retaliating by closing its airspace to Indian airlines and threatening to suspend bilateral agreements. Cross-border skirmishes along the Line of Control have intensified, with the Indian Army reporting exchanges of fire for two consecutive nights

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