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Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

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Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Here’s an overview of how various parties fared in the post-election surveys telecast by different TV channels

By Sujit Bhar

Exit polls by their nature in this country have always been unreliable. However, the social implications and impact of these polls are huge. That is possibly why the Election Commission had banned exit polls during the long election period that spanned across five states—Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Punjab, Manipur and Uttarakhand.

At the end of the last polling date, on March 8, the exit polls were back with a vengeance, and the results were, for some, expected, while for others, pretty shocking. Already, UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has indicated that he is not averse to having a tie-up with Mayawati, if the needs be, just to keep the BJP away from government.

One look at the different exit polls will give a fair picture of what is to come and the possibilities that exist within the existing complex political system.

Uttar Pradesh (Total seats 403)

This has been the centrepiece of the entire election process. UP is where kings are made and destroyed, goes the saying. At this point, as it emerges from exit polls, these are the figures available:

The BJP tally varies from 285 (News24-Chanakya) down to 155-167 (India TV-C Voter). In between there are 251-179 (India Today-Axis), 185 (NewsX-MRC) and 164-176 (ABP-CSDS).

Here a caveat: While Chanakya had predicted the 2014 Lok Sabha polls with incredible accuracy–they said BJP would get 291, and BJP ended with 282 seats–they goofed up during the Bihar elections.

The position of other parties in UP are as follows:

SP and Congress alliance: ABP-CSDS gives them the best deal, 155-169, while the lowest comes from News24-Chanakya at 88 (+/- 15). India TV-C Voter gives them 135-147, while India Today-Axis gives then 88-112. News X-MRC says they will get 120.

BSP: No channel gives Mayawati’s party a good chance. The best deal is from India TV-C Voter, at 81-93, while the poorest is from News24-Chanakya at 27 (+/- 12). Their other high is from ABP-CSDS at 60-72.

Before leaving UP, let us take a look at what pre-poll predictions were like. A January 5 opinion poll, conducted by Axis My Media on behalf of India Today TV, had said this:

BJP: 206-216
SP: 92-97
BSP: 79-85
Cong: 5-9

Remember, the Congress-SP alliance had not been worked out yet, neither had the intra-family feud broken out within SP.

Feel free to draw your own conclusion about UP. On Saturday the truth will be out.

Punjab (117)

It is an even spread between Congress and AAP. News24-Chanakya marks the Congress at 54 (+/-9).They have given AAP the exact same, while Akali Dal has got a mere 9. India TV-C Voter gives AAP the best verdict, at 59-67, pushing Congress down to 41-49. ABP-CSDS thinks Congress will win (46-56) with AAP at 36-46, while News X-MRC has AAP at 55 and Congress the exact same.

Uttarakhand (70)

The BJP verdict is clear in this state. Again, News24-Chanakya has marked the party at 53 (+/- 7), while India Today-Axis puts them at 46-53. India TV-C Voter has an interesting take: BJP and Congress at 29-35. ABP-CSDS has BJP at 34-42, with Congress at 23-29, while NewsX-MRC has 38 for BJP and 30 for Congress. The huge fracas of the state, where the court reinstated the government, seems to be turned on its head. The problem will resurface in the case of a hung assembly.

Goa (40)

Here too the BJP has a sway. India Today-Axis has the most favourable outlook for the party, with 18-22 for BJP and 9-13 for Congress, while ABP-CSDS pegs BJP at 16-22 with 9-13 for Congress. NewsX-MRC puts BJP at 15 and Congress at 10, also promoting AAP to 7.

Manipur (60)

Here, too, BJP has a decent field. India Today-Axis puts the party at 16-22, with Congress winning at 30-36, but India TV-C Voter puts it at 25-31, with Congress lagging behind at 17-23. The infamous Congress rebels here might again play up.

UNRELIABLE

As said before, exit polls have remained extremely unreliable in the past in India.

Here are some.

Lok Sabha 2014

No exit poll (except Chanakya, of course) came anywhere near predicting the massive mandate that the BJP managed (282 seats) or the total eclipse of India’s Grand Old Party, the Congress (44).

Bihar assembly 2015

BJP was touted to win, what with PM Narendra Modi promising a stupendous sum of assistance (which never came) to Bihar. In the end, a clever alliance between JD(U), RJD and even the Congress (junior) beating all predictions with a thumping victory. BJP managed just a Nelson (111).

Tamil Nadu assembly 2016

Prediction: AIADMK set to move out of the picture. Result: Late Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa returned with 136 seats.

West Bengal assembly 2016

All signs were there on the ground, but no exit poll and no pre-election opinion poll would want to believe it. The media was blinkered and when Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress renewed their position with a mandate even more massive than the last time out, it was almost unbelievable.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Man attempting to cross India-Pakistan border in Rajasthan shot dead by BSF personnel

“We are investigating the case under these acts,” he added.

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Border Security Force (BSF) personnel shot and killed an individual attempting to cross the India-Pakistan border in the Ganganagar district of Rajasthan late on Tuesday, according to police.

Jitendra Kumar, the station house officer at Kesrisinghpur police station, stated that the man was trying to breach the barbed wire fence when he was spotted by BSF personnel. “They advised him to leave the area, but when he continued to advance, the BSF personnel shot him,” said the SHO.

Sriganganagar Superintendent of Police Gaurav Yadav confirmed that the suspect was allegedly trying to enter Indian territory around midnight on December 24, 2024. Despite warnings from the BSF soldiers, he did not heed their calls, which resulted in the shooting.

The incident occurred near a village in the Kesarisinghpur area. Items recovered from the intruder included Pakistani currency notes, a cigarette packet, an identity card, and other belongings. Authorities are currently gathering more information about him.

Ongoing discussions are taking place between the armed forces and police officers regarding the incident. An FIR has been filed that includes charges of trespassing and violations of the Passports Act and the Foreigners Act, according to Kumar. “We are investigating the case under these acts,” he added.

This incident is one of several similar occurrences along the border. In August, the BSF apprehended an intruder named Jagsi Kohli, who had entered about 15 kilometers into Indian territory in Barmer after locals alerted authorities that he was asking for directions to Tharparkar, a district in Pakistan’s Sindh province.

In March of this year, another person attempting to cross the border in Ganganagar was shot by BSF personnel. There have been additional incidents reported in October 2022 and twice in March 2021, all resulting in fatalities among the intruders.

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Amit Shah, JP Nadda, Chandrababu Naidu among leaders at NDA meet in Delhi amid Ambedkar row

The alliance had decided to convene on the birthday of the late BJP leader, noted for successfully leading the first coalition government to complete its term.

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Union Home Minister Amit Shah, BJP chief J.P. Nadda and Telugu Desam Party (TDP) president and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu among leaders of the NDA met in New Delhi on Wednesday to discuss different issues including Shah’s comment on BR Ambedkar days ago in Rajya Sabha.

In attendance, apart from Shah, Nadda and Naidu, JD-U leader and Union minister Rajiv Ranjan Singh, Apna Dal (S) president and Union minister Anupriya Patel, as well as JD (S) leader and Union minister H.D. Kumaraswamy were present.

Also present were Jitan Ram Manjhi, leader of Bihar’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (S) and a minister in the Modi government, Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) president Upendra Kushwaha, a Rajya Sabha MP, and Thushar Vellappally, president of Bharath Dharma Jana Sena.

While the specific agenda of the meeting was not officially disclosed, sources indicated that discussions revolved around good governance and various political issues—principles that were central to Vajpayee’s tenure as Prime Minister. The alliance had decided to convene on the birthday of the late BJP leader, noted for successfully leading the first coalition government to complete its term.

Following the meeting, Nadda shared on X, “Attended the NDA leaders’ meeting in New Delhi today. Under the visionary leadership of PM Narendra Modi, India is achieving unprecedented milestones and has positioned itself as a global superpower. The NDA government remains committed to realizing the vision of ‘Viksit Bharat@2047’, ensuring a brighter and more prosperous future for all.”

Sanjay Nishad, chief of the NISHAD Party in Uttar Pradesh, described the meeting as “informal” and focused on Vajpayee’s legacy. He emphasised the importance of unity among all alliance members heading into future elections, mentioning that they congratulated the BJP leaders for their electoral victories in Haryana and Maharashtra.

Nishad further outlined that the meeting addressed coalition strategies to ensure that Prime Minister Modi’s initiatives effectively reach the populace and that electoral promises are fulfilled. He raised the topic of providing reservations for the fishing community, stating, “I presented evidence on this issue, as it was a poll promise. They will follow up with us next week to discuss it.”

Responding to inquiries about whether Amit Shah’s controversial remarks on Ambedkar were discussed, Nishad said, “We are here for the welfare of the people. Our energy should focus on achieving success in that area, rather than engaging with negativity from opposition parties.”

The NDA meeting underscores the alliance’s commitment to the proposed simultaneous elections, with all members backing the initiative. A Joint Committee of Parliament, established to review two bills related to simultaneous polls, is set to convene on January 8.

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Manipur CM Biren Singh says state needs immediate peace, understanding between two communities

He claimed that the administration is responding quickly to the displaced people’s needs in areas such as education and agriculture.

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Manipur Chief Minister N Biren Singh on Wednesday emphasised the urgent need for peace in the state, which has faced ethnic violence since May of last year, and called on two communities to reach a mutual understanding.

Speaking at the Good Governance Day event held at the state BJP headquarters, Singh expressed confidence that the BJP could restore stability to the northeastern state, highlighting the party’s commitment to coexisting harmoniously.

“What is happening in Manipur today has multiple causes. Those who seek to divide the state are now questioning the government’s actions… they are driven by a desire for power,” Singh remarked.

He mentioned several initiatives, such as ‘Meeyamgi Numit’ (People’s Day), designed to foster closer relationships between officials and the public. “We do not oppose any specific community. The BJP’s position is clear: we advocate for the idea of living together and have initiated efforts to strengthen ties between the police and the community,” he stated.

Singh added that the state government is diligently addressing the needs of internally displaced persons by establishing committees throughout the administrative framework. He claimed that the administration is responding quickly to the displaced people’s needs in areas such as education and agriculture.

“We have not made any mistakes. Our goal is to ensure the well-being of future generations. It is essential for both communities to remain calm. Rather than dwelling on the past, we should concentrate on the upcoming NRC process, capturing biometrics, and using 1961 as the foundation year for the Inner Line Permit,” Singh said.

He also highlighted the government’s commitment to acting within a democratic and constitutional framework, noting that achieving these goals will take time. “What we require now is immediate peace and a resolution of misunderstandings between the two communities,” he concluded.

The ongoing violence has resulted in the deaths of over 250 individuals and left thousands homeless due to clashes between the Meitei community and Kuki-Zo groups since last May.

“Only the BJP can save Manipur. BJP leaders possess strong values of nationalism and social justice, practicing reality-based politics in the nation’s interest. If I am not nominated for a ticket by the BJP, I will remain loyal to the party,” Mr. Singh added.

He also highlighted several unity-focused projects initiated by the BJP government, mentioning that a Unity Mall featuring stalls from all ethnic groups in the state will be constructed with an investment exceeding ₹140 crores.

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