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Why the BJP is (over)confident that it will win in UP

Published

9 years ago

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A blinkered view gives a pretty picture where the party accesses large sections except Muslims

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]A blinkered view gives a pretty picture where the party accesses large sections save Muslims

By Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr

There is little doubt that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is emotionally, ideologically and politically invested in Uttar Pradesh. The most populous state is at the heart of the Hindu heartland. BJP does not fight shy of the fact that it is a Hindi heartland party. As a matter of fact it wants to flaunt it even.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set his heart on UP from 2013 onwards when he was declared the prime ministerial candidate of the party in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. First, he chose to contest from Varanasi, with its unmistakable Hindu connection. Then he deputed Amit Shah, his Gujarat confidante to focus on UP in 2014. The strategy seemed to have paid off. The BJP won 73 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state. It was natural that Shah was credited with the success of the BJP juggernaut in UP, and he was rewarded by making him the president of the party.

Now, both Modi and Shah want to prove that they have grown roots in UP. As one of Modi’s cabinet ministers said on condition of anonymity, “We (the BJP) want to prove that 2014 Lok Sabha election was no fluke.” So, Modi, Shah and the rest in the party are sparing no effort to win in the state. Shah’s constituency by constituency, booth by booth – BJP leaders lay much store by their booth management skills – approach which paid dividends in  2014 is ostensibly replicated this time round. And it is believed that it will work a second time round. What the BJP fails to understand is that it is not the thoroughness of the preparation alone that matters, and that it depends on more than anything else it depends on the preference of the people as such.

Apart from the desire and determination to win UP, the BJP strategists also seem to believe that they have been dealt a winning hand as it were when the electoral cards were shuffled. They think that the political appeal of Samajwadi Party (SP) is confined to its core constituency of Yadavs and not to the whole spectrum of the backward classes/castes, and that of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to Jatavs and not to Dalits in general. Another Union minister, who gives the spin to the BJP thesis, says that half of the Muslim vote would go to the SP, and the other half to BSP.

In contrast, the minister arguing the case of electoral prospects of the party said that the upper castes are with the BJP, and so are the various segments of the other backward classes/castes and the remaining Dalits, the Valmikis. Of course, it is a big presumption. Even if it is assumed that many of backward class segments would not go with the SP, and therefore could vote for BJP because Congress, the other big national party in the fray in the state, is not a big players anymore and it has reduced itself to the status of a junior alliance partner to SP, the big local players. There is also the possibility that the BJP would want to choose a candidate from one of the non-Yadav backward classes as a chief ministerial candidate. But rivalries between the many non-Yadav backward classes/castes are conveniently ignored by the BJP spinmeisters. It is also not clear as to why the non-Jatav Dalits, the Valmikis, should choose BJP because they have not much to gain from the bargain. The BJP will not be able to please them all with the temptation of office.

What is interesting in the BJP is argument is that there is ideological thrust to the campaign though there is a subtle and not-so-subtle Hindutva or Hindu communalism at play here. The BJP is reconciled to the fact that Muslims will not vote for it, and so it does not factor in Muslims in its caste/community electoral calculus. If the BJP leaders are embarrassed about it, they do not show it. But they are displaying hard-nosed political realism by not counting on Muslims, but they are overstating their case by assuming that the Muslim would split, almost in half between the SP and BSP.

The other big assumption of the BJP, and even that of the pollsters, is that it is not a three-cornered contest where SP-Congress, BSP and BJP are all equal contenders and that that the vote would split three-ways. The complexity is simplified by reducing BSP into a distant third, and that it is essentially a contest between SP-Congress on the one hand and the BJP on the other. It is not even being contended that it could be a battle between BJP and BSP. This is a grudging recognition by the BJP that Akhilesh Yadav has clawed his way back into the contest.

Though there are some who are arguing that the BSP is the silent player which would steal the show on Saturday, there seems to be no reliable or tangible proof that the BSP outreach to the other castes and communities is gaining traction or not. This does not mean that BSP has failed to reach out beyond its core constituency. It just means that the pollsters have failed to detect it. Even the ardent supporters of BSP in media have not argued convincingly enough that a significant number of Muslims and Brahmins have been won over by party of Dalits. There is of course the plausible inference that Muslims are not too happy with SP post-Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013.

There are enough chinks in the constructed political armour of the BJP, which could turn out to be a sour point on Saturday.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Pralhad Joshi appointed Education Minister after Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation

Pralhad Joshi has been entrusted with the additional charge of the Education Ministry after President Droupadi Murmu accepted Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation amid the prolonged student protests over alleged examination paper leaks.

Published

37 mins ago

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July 25, 2026

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Union Minister Pralhad Joshi has been given the additional charge of the Ministry of Education after President Droupadi Murmu accepted the resignation of Dharmendra Pradhan.

The President’s office confirmed the appointment through an official communique issued on Saturday evening. Joshi will continue to hold his existing portfolio as Union Minister of Food and Consumer Affairs while also overseeing the Education Ministry.

Dharmendra Pradhan resigns amid prolonged protests

Dharmendra Pradhan submitted his resignation on the 35th day of the student protests at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar over alleged examination paper leaks.

In his resignation letter, the 57-year-old leader said he chose to step down to prevent anti-national forces from exploiting the situation.

“For over four decades, I have dedicated myself to the cause of students, teachers, and educational reform. I have always believed that a robust, inclusive, and visionary education system forms the cornerstone of a strong nation,” Pradhan said.

CJP ends protest after Centre’s assurance

Hours after Pradhan’s resignation, CJP spokespersons Saurav Das and Ashutosh Ranka, during a joint press conference with Union ministers JP Nadda and Jitendra Singh, announced that the organisation was ending its protest in good faith after receiving assurances from the Centre that its demands would be addressed.

The resignation of Dharmendra Pradhan had been the principal demand of the organisation founded by Abhijeet Dipke, a Boston University graduate who returned to India to lead the campaign against alleged examination paper leaks.

Joshi reiterates government’s stand on students

A day before taking charge of the Education Ministry, Pralhad Joshi said the Centre remained committed to protecting students’ interests and ensuring strict action against irregularities affecting examinations.

He also alleged that anti-social elements were attempting to exploit the CJP-led protests and urged students to remain vigilant while continuing peaceful demonstrations.

“The Modi government has always stood with students and the youth. It remains committed to taking strict action against any irregularities or injustices that affect their future,” Joshi had said.

He added that while students have every right to protest peacefully, they should ensure that their genuine concerns are not misused by anti-social elements.

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Dharmendra Pradhan submits resignation to PM Modi amid student protests

Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan has submitted his resignation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, hours before the third round of talks between the Centre and the Cockroach Janta Party.

Published

7 hours ago

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July 25, 2026

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Dharmendra Pradhan

Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan on Saturday submitted his resignation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, marking a major development amid the ongoing student protests at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar.

Pradhan announced the decision through a post on X, just hours before the Centre was scheduled to hold the third round of talks with the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP), which has been leading the agitation over alleged irregularities in competitive examinations.

The resignation of the Education Minister had remained the primary demand of the protesters, who have been camping at Jantar Mantar for more than a month seeking accountability and reforms in the examination system.

The latest development comes at a crucial time as both sides prepare for another round of discussions aimed at resolving the prolonged standoff.

As of now, there has been no official announcement from the Prime Minister’s Office on whether Pradhan’s resignation has been accepted. Further details are awaited.

Resignation comes before key Centre-CJP meeting

The announcement was made only hours before representatives of the Centre and the Cockroach Janta Party were expected to meet for the third round of negotiations.

The talks are being closely watched as the government attempts to end the month-long protest, with the resignation of Dharmendra Pradhan remaining one of the protesters’ central demands.

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CJP says Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation non-negotiable ahead of third round of talks

CJP has hardened its stand before the third round of talks with the Centre, insisting that Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation remains its primary and non-negotiable demand.

Published

11 hours ago

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July 25, 2026

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The Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) has reiterated that the resignation of Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan remains its top demand, just hours before the third round of discussions with the Centre on Saturday.

CJP spokesperson Ashutosh Ranka said the organisation would see little purpose in continuing negotiations if the government was unwilling to remove the minister.

In a post on X, Ranka said Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation was “non-negotiable” and added that there was no point in holding further discussions if the government rejected the demand.

The third round of talks is scheduled for Saturday afternoon after Union Ministers JP Nadda and Jitendra Singh met CJP representatives for nearly two hours during the second round of discussions on Friday.

According to the CJP, it has placed three key demands before the Centre:

  • Resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan.
  • A guarantee that no legal action will be taken against protesting students.
  • Compensation of Rs 1 crore for the families of students who allegedly died by suicide following the NEET paper leak.

During Friday’s meeting, the Centre agreed in principle to two of the demands — ensuring no legal action against protesting students and providing compensation. However, the demand for the Education Minister’s resignation remains unresolved.

Speaking after the meeting, JP Nadda said the protesters had also submitted five suggestions for reforms to the examination system. He said the government would hold internal discussions before responding during Saturday’s meeting.

Government sources, however, indicated that Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation is not under consideration. According to the sources, the government believes resignation is not the appropriate course of action and continues to back the minister.

Meanwhile, the Centre has announced several measures aimed at tackling examination paper leaks. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced the establishment of fast-track courts to hear paper leak cases, while the government is preparing amendments to strengthen the law with stricter punishments and higher fines.

The Centre has also replaced the Education Secretary and removed 47 officials of the National Testing Agency (NTA), while promising broader reforms within the examination body.

Responding to the action against NTA officials, Ashutosh Ranka said the move alone was insufficient. He maintained that accountability ultimately rests with the Education Minister and reiterated that Dharmendra Pradhan must resign.

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