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Why the BJP is (over)confident that it will win in UP

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9 years ago

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A blinkered view gives a pretty picture where the party accesses large sections except Muslims

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]A blinkered view gives a pretty picture where the party accesses large sections save Muslims

By Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr

There is little doubt that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is emotionally, ideologically and politically invested in Uttar Pradesh. The most populous state is at the heart of the Hindu heartland. BJP does not fight shy of the fact that it is a Hindi heartland party. As a matter of fact it wants to flaunt it even.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set his heart on UP from 2013 onwards when he was declared the prime ministerial candidate of the party in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. First, he chose to contest from Varanasi, with its unmistakable Hindu connection. Then he deputed Amit Shah, his Gujarat confidante to focus on UP in 2014. The strategy seemed to have paid off. The BJP won 73 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state. It was natural that Shah was credited with the success of the BJP juggernaut in UP, and he was rewarded by making him the president of the party.

Now, both Modi and Shah want to prove that they have grown roots in UP. As one of Modi’s cabinet ministers said on condition of anonymity, “We (the BJP) want to prove that 2014 Lok Sabha election was no fluke.” So, Modi, Shah and the rest in the party are sparing no effort to win in the state. Shah’s constituency by constituency, booth by booth – BJP leaders lay much store by their booth management skills – approach which paid dividends in  2014 is ostensibly replicated this time round. And it is believed that it will work a second time round. What the BJP fails to understand is that it is not the thoroughness of the preparation alone that matters, and that it depends on more than anything else it depends on the preference of the people as such.

Apart from the desire and determination to win UP, the BJP strategists also seem to believe that they have been dealt a winning hand as it were when the electoral cards were shuffled. They think that the political appeal of Samajwadi Party (SP) is confined to its core constituency of Yadavs and not to the whole spectrum of the backward classes/castes, and that of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to Jatavs and not to Dalits in general. Another Union minister, who gives the spin to the BJP thesis, says that half of the Muslim vote would go to the SP, and the other half to BSP.

In contrast, the minister arguing the case of electoral prospects of the party said that the upper castes are with the BJP, and so are the various segments of the other backward classes/castes and the remaining Dalits, the Valmikis. Of course, it is a big presumption. Even if it is assumed that many of backward class segments would not go with the SP, and therefore could vote for BJP because Congress, the other big national party in the fray in the state, is not a big players anymore and it has reduced itself to the status of a junior alliance partner to SP, the big local players. There is also the possibility that the BJP would want to choose a candidate from one of the non-Yadav backward classes as a chief ministerial candidate. But rivalries between the many non-Yadav backward classes/castes are conveniently ignored by the BJP spinmeisters. It is also not clear as to why the non-Jatav Dalits, the Valmikis, should choose BJP because they have not much to gain from the bargain. The BJP will not be able to please them all with the temptation of office.

What is interesting in the BJP is argument is that there is ideological thrust to the campaign though there is a subtle and not-so-subtle Hindutva or Hindu communalism at play here. The BJP is reconciled to the fact that Muslims will not vote for it, and so it does not factor in Muslims in its caste/community electoral calculus. If the BJP leaders are embarrassed about it, they do not show it. But they are displaying hard-nosed political realism by not counting on Muslims, but they are overstating their case by assuming that the Muslim would split, almost in half between the SP and BSP.

The other big assumption of the BJP, and even that of the pollsters, is that it is not a three-cornered contest where SP-Congress, BSP and BJP are all equal contenders and that that the vote would split three-ways. The complexity is simplified by reducing BSP into a distant third, and that it is essentially a contest between SP-Congress on the one hand and the BJP on the other. It is not even being contended that it could be a battle between BJP and BSP. This is a grudging recognition by the BJP that Akhilesh Yadav has clawed his way back into the contest.

Though there are some who are arguing that the BSP is the silent player which would steal the show on Saturday, there seems to be no reliable or tangible proof that the BSP outreach to the other castes and communities is gaining traction or not. This does not mean that BSP has failed to reach out beyond its core constituency. It just means that the pollsters have failed to detect it. Even the ardent supporters of BSP in media have not argued convincingly enough that a significant number of Muslims and Brahmins have been won over by party of Dalits. There is of course the plausible inference that Muslims are not too happy with SP post-Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013.

There are enough chinks in the constructed political armour of the BJP, which could turn out to be a sour point on Saturday.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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India News

PM Modi says India managed Hormuz crisis with minimal impact on citizens through energy diversification

Prime Minister Narendra Modi said India successfully navigated the Hormuz crisis by expanding energy imports, reducing the burden of rising fuel prices on citizens and strengthening the country’s refining capacity while inaugurating Rajasthan’s first integrated refinery.

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11 hours ago

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July 4, 2026

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PM Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday said India successfully managed one of the world’s most challenging energy crises by expanding its energy sourcing, strengthening diplomatic partnerships and shielding citizens from the impact of rising global fuel prices.

Addressing a public gathering after inaugurating the country’s first greenfield integrated refinery-cum-petrochemical complex in Pachpadra, Rajasthan’s Balotra district, the Prime Minister said India adopted proactive measures during the recent Middle East crisis that helped maintain energy security despite global uncertainties.

According to PM Modi, India significantly diversified its energy imports as tensions disrupted global fuel markets.

“When the crisis began, India was importing energy from around 25 to 26 countries. During the crisis, we expanded imports to more than 40 countries,” he said, crediting India’s diplomatic outreach for ensuring uninterrupted supplies.

The Prime Minister also highlighted the financial measures taken by the government to cushion consumers from soaring international crude oil prices. He said public sector oil companies absorbed losses exceeding Rs. 75,000 crore between April and June while the Centre reduced excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs. 10 per litre to prevent a steep rise in fuel prices for consumers.

PM Modi added that despite attempts by some groups to spread rumours and create panic during the crisis, the government’s efforts ensured stability.

He said those who expected India to struggle during the crisis had been proven wrong as the country successfully overcame the challenge.

India strengthening refining capacity

Speaking about India’s energy infrastructure, the Prime Minister said the country has become the world’s fourth-largest refining hub and continues to expand its refining capabilities to meet future energy demand.

He also said the government’s long-term planning helped India deal with disruptions in fuel and fertiliser supplies triggered by the conflict involving Iran and the US-Israel alliance.

Pachpadra refinery inaugurated in Rajasthan

During the visit, PM Modi inaugurated India’s first greenfield integrated refinery-cum-petrochemical complex at Pachpadra, marking Rajasthan’s first refinery project. He launched the facility by remotely activating the project after inspecting the refinery complex.

The Prime Minister also laid the foundation stone for several development projects in the state.

Highlighting the government’s approach towards infrastructure development, PM Modi said the BJP governments focus not only on announcing projects but also on ensuring their timely completion.

He also remarked that work on the Pachpadra refinery had remained largely stalled during the Congress government’s tenure in Rajasthan between 2018 and 2023 before gaining momentum again.

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Entertainment

Aamir Khan set to wed Gauri Spratt on July 5

Actor Aamir Khan is reportedly preparing to marry longtime partner Gauri Spratt in a private ceremony on July 5. While the couple has not officially confirmed the wedding, reports suggest the celebration will be a low-key affair attended by close family and friends.

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13 hours ago

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July 4, 2026

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Actor Aamir Khan is readying to finally marry his longtime partner, Gauri Spratt, in a private ceremony on July 5. Unlike other high-profile Bollywood weddings, the couple is expected to celebrate the occasion with close family members and a handful of friends, choosing a simple gathering over a lavish event. 

The reported wedding has attracted widespread attention from fans and the film industry, with many taking to social media to congratulate the couple. While neither Aamir nor Gauri has shared extensive details about the ceremony, reports suggest the celebrations will remain intimate and focused on family.

The actor was first married to Reena Dutta, and they have two children together. In 2005, Aamir married filmmaker Kiran Rao. The couple announced their separation in 2021 but have continued to maintain a friendly relationship and jointly raise their son while working together on select projects.

Gauri Spratt has largely stayed away from the limelight. Despite growing public interest in their relationship, she has preferred to keep her personal life private. Reports indicate that Gauri and Aamir have known each other for several years before deciding to take the next step in their relationship.

Known for balancing a successful film career with a private personal life, Aamir Khan has often avoided discussing family matters in public. His reported decision to opt for a low-key wedding is in line with his long-standing preference for privacy. 

As news of the upcoming ceremony continues  to make headlines, fans are eagerly waiting for an official glimpse of the celebrations. Whether through a family photograph or a public statement, many hope to see the couple share the joyful occasion with their well-wishers.

With this wedding, Aamir Khan appears ready to embrace a new phase in his life while continuing to focus on both his personal happiness and his significant contribution to Indian cinema.  

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India News

Vaibhav Sooryavanshi becomes India’s youngest international debutant, surpasses Sachin Tendulkar

Teenage batting sensation Vaibhav Sooryavanshi has become India’s youngest-ever international cricketer after making his debut in the second T20I against England at the age of 15 years and 99 days. The milestone sees him surpass Sachin Tendulkar and Shafali Verma in the Indian record books.

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13 hours ago

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July 4, 2026

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Vaibhav suryavanshi123

Indian cricket witnessed the beginning of a new era as teenage batting sensation Vaibhav Sooryavanshi made his senior international debut, becoming the youngest player ever to represent India in men’s or women’s cricket.

The left-handed batter received his maiden India cap ahead of the second T20I against England in Manchester. At 15 years and 99 days, Sooryavanshi broke a long-standing national record previously held by cricket legend Sachin Tendulkar, who made his international debut at the age of 16 years and 205 days in 1989.

The milestone also saw Sooryavanshi overtake Shafali Verma, who had been India’s youngest international debutant overall after making her debut at 15 years and 239 days.

Historic moment for Indian cricket

The young opener’s debut had been eagerly anticipated ever since he was included in India’s squads for the Ireland and England T20I series.

Although he did not feature in the matches against Ireland, India initially continued with the experienced opening pair of Sanju Samson and Abhishek Sharma for the opening T20I against England. Following Samson’s struggles with the bat, discussions around Sooryavanshi’s inclusion intensified.

The Indian team management eventually decided to hand the youngster his opportunity, with captain Shreyas Iyer and head coach Gautam Gambhir backing the teenager for his first international appearance. The debut cap was presented to him by Tilak Verma before the Manchester encounter.

Youngest men’s debutants for India

Following his debut, Sooryavanshi now tops the list of India’s youngest men’s international debutants.

  • Vaibhav Sooryavanshi – 15 years, 99 days (vs England, July 4, 2026)
  • Sachin Tendulkar – 16 years, 205 days (vs Pakistan, November 15, 1989)
  • Piyush Chawla – 17 years, 75 days
  • Laxman Sivaramakrishnan – 17 years, 118 days
  • Parthiv Patel – 17 years, 152 days
  • Maninder Singh – 17 years, 193 days

While Sooryavanshi now holds the record for India’s youngest international debutant, Pakistan’s Hasan Raza remains the youngest men’s Test debutant globally at 14 years and 227 days. Romania’s Marian Gherasim continues to hold the record as the youngest international cricketer overall, having debuted in T20Is at 14 years and 16 days.

Shreyas Iyer backs the young opener

Speaking before the match, captain Shreyas Iyer expressed confidence in the youngster’s temperament and ability to perform at the highest level.

Iyer said Sooryavanshi had consistently impressed during training, adding that the teenager deserved his opportunity after displaying fearless batting and showing no signs of pressure despite his age.

IPL heroics paved the way

Sooryavanshi’s selection followed a remarkable IPL 2026 campaign for the Rajasthan Royals, where he emerged as the tournament’s highest run-scorer.

He accumulated 776 runs at a strike rate of 237.30, registering one century and five half-centuries while smashing 72 sixes. His performances earned him multiple individual honours, including the Orange Cap, Most Valuable Player, Emerging Player, Super Striker, and Super Sixes awards.

Strong performances across formats

The teenager has also impressed in domestic and age-group cricket.

During the recent tri-series involving Sri Lanka A and Afghanistan A, he scored 211 runs in five innings, including a match-winning 94 in the final. He also recorded the fastest fifty in List A cricket by reaching the milestone in just 11 balls against Sri Lanka A.

His record in youth cricket has been equally impressive. Sooryavanshi finished as the leading run-scorer at the Under-19 World Cup with 439 runs in seven matches, helping India lift the title. He also set a tournament record by hitting 30 sixes.

Across youth ODIs, he has accumulated 1,412 runs at an average of 56.48, while his T20 numbers include 1,477 runs from 34 innings at a strike rate above 220.

In the IPL, the youngster has already crossed the 1,000-run mark in just 23 innings, underlining the promise that has made him one of India’s brightest emerging talents.

With his record-breaking debut now complete, Indian cricket fans will be hoping that Vaibhav Sooryavanshi’s international journey lives up to the enormous expectations surrounding one of the country’s most exciting young prospects.

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