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Why the BJP is (over)confident that it will win in UP

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A blinkered view gives a pretty picture where the party accesses large sections except Muslims

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]A blinkered view gives a pretty picture where the party accesses large sections save Muslims

By Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr

There is little doubt that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is emotionally, ideologically and politically invested in Uttar Pradesh. The most populous state is at the heart of the Hindu heartland. BJP does not fight shy of the fact that it is a Hindi heartland party. As a matter of fact it wants to flaunt it even.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set his heart on UP from 2013 onwards when he was declared the prime ministerial candidate of the party in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. First, he chose to contest from Varanasi, with its unmistakable Hindu connection. Then he deputed Amit Shah, his Gujarat confidante to focus on UP in 2014. The strategy seemed to have paid off. The BJP won 73 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state. It was natural that Shah was credited with the success of the BJP juggernaut in UP, and he was rewarded by making him the president of the party.

Now, both Modi and Shah want to prove that they have grown roots in UP. As one of Modi’s cabinet ministers said on condition of anonymity, “We (the BJP) want to prove that 2014 Lok Sabha election was no fluke.” So, Modi, Shah and the rest in the party are sparing no effort to win in the state. Shah’s constituency by constituency, booth by booth – BJP leaders lay much store by their booth management skills – approach which paid dividends in  2014 is ostensibly replicated this time round. And it is believed that it will work a second time round. What the BJP fails to understand is that it is not the thoroughness of the preparation alone that matters, and that it depends on more than anything else it depends on the preference of the people as such.

Apart from the desire and determination to win UP, the BJP strategists also seem to believe that they have been dealt a winning hand as it were when the electoral cards were shuffled. They think that the political appeal of Samajwadi Party (SP) is confined to its core constituency of Yadavs and not to the whole spectrum of the backward classes/castes, and that of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to Jatavs and not to Dalits in general. Another Union minister, who gives the spin to the BJP thesis, says that half of the Muslim vote would go to the SP, and the other half to BSP.

In contrast, the minister arguing the case of electoral prospects of the party said that the upper castes are with the BJP, and so are the various segments of the other backward classes/castes and the remaining Dalits, the Valmikis. Of course, it is a big presumption. Even if it is assumed that many of backward class segments would not go with the SP, and therefore could vote for BJP because Congress, the other big national party in the fray in the state, is not a big players anymore and it has reduced itself to the status of a junior alliance partner to SP, the big local players. There is also the possibility that the BJP would want to choose a candidate from one of the non-Yadav backward classes as a chief ministerial candidate. But rivalries between the many non-Yadav backward classes/castes are conveniently ignored by the BJP spinmeisters. It is also not clear as to why the non-Jatav Dalits, the Valmikis, should choose BJP because they have not much to gain from the bargain. The BJP will not be able to please them all with the temptation of office.

What is interesting in the BJP is argument is that there is ideological thrust to the campaign though there is a subtle and not-so-subtle Hindutva or Hindu communalism at play here. The BJP is reconciled to the fact that Muslims will not vote for it, and so it does not factor in Muslims in its caste/community electoral calculus. If the BJP leaders are embarrassed about it, they do not show it. But they are displaying hard-nosed political realism by not counting on Muslims, but they are overstating their case by assuming that the Muslim would split, almost in half between the SP and BSP.

The other big assumption of the BJP, and even that of the pollsters, is that it is not a three-cornered contest where SP-Congress, BSP and BJP are all equal contenders and that that the vote would split three-ways. The complexity is simplified by reducing BSP into a distant third, and that it is essentially a contest between SP-Congress on the one hand and the BJP on the other. It is not even being contended that it could be a battle between BJP and BSP. This is a grudging recognition by the BJP that Akhilesh Yadav has clawed his way back into the contest.

Though there are some who are arguing that the BSP is the silent player which would steal the show on Saturday, there seems to be no reliable or tangible proof that the BSP outreach to the other castes and communities is gaining traction or not. This does not mean that BSP has failed to reach out beyond its core constituency. It just means that the pollsters have failed to detect it. Even the ardent supporters of BSP in media have not argued convincingly enough that a significant number of Muslims and Brahmins have been won over by party of Dalits. There is of course the plausible inference that Muslims are not too happy with SP post-Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013.

There are enough chinks in the constructed political armour of the BJP, which could turn out to be a sour point on Saturday.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Magnus Carlsen hails Gukesh Dommaraju’s historic Chess World Championship 2024 win

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Magnus Carlsen hails Gukesh Dommaraju's historic Chess World Championship 2024 win

Indian chess prodigy Gukesh Dommaraju etched his name in history by becoming the youngest-ever Chess World Champion 2024, defeating defending champion Ding Liren in the final round. The 18-year-old’s victory marks a monumental achievement, making him the second Indian to claim the title after Viswanathan Anand.

Gukesh’s remarkable performance throughout the tournament, including a standout display at the Candidates event, has drawn widespread praise, including from world number one Magnus Carlsen. The Norwegian legend lauded Gukesh’s strategic prowess and predicted a bright future for the young champion, suggesting he could soon become the world’s second-ranked player and possibly challenge for the top spot.

Carlsen, who chose not to defend his title in 2023 after a decade of dominance, commended Gukesh’s team for their innovative strategies. “It’s an incredible achievement. Gukesh’s performance in the FIDE circuit, the Chennai tournament, and the Candidates event was extraordinary,” Carlsen said during a recap stream.

The former world champion, however, ruled out the possibility of a title match with Gukesh. “I’m not part of this circus anymore,” Carlsen said, maintaining his decision to step away from world championship clashes.

Despite this, Gukesh expressed his admiration for Carlsen, stating his desire to compete against the Norwegian at some point. “Winning the Chess World Championship 2024 doesn’t make me the best player—Magnus Carlsen is still the benchmark. It would be an amazing challenge to face him,” Gukesh said during a press conference.

Gukesh’s victory has been celebrated as a milestone for Indian chess, highlighting the nation’s growing prominence in the global chess arena. Carlsen called it a “massive moment for India,” emphasizing the collective efforts that have fueled such successes.

“This is just the beginning,” Carlsen remarked. “There are many more success stories to come. Gukesh’s win is a testament to the hard work being done in India’s chess ecosystem. It’s heartwarming to see what it means to him and the country.”

With his victory, Gukesh Dommaraju has not only claimed the prestigious title but also set the stage for an exciting new chapter in international chess. As he aims for even greater heights, the chess world watches with bated breath to see how far this young talent will go.

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Actor Allu Arjun arrested over Hyderabad theatre stampede

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Allu Arjun

Telugu superstar Allu Arjun has been arrested in connection with a tragic stampede outside Sandhya Theatre, Hyderabad, which led to the death of a 35-year-old woman and left her young son injured. The incident occurred on December 3 during an unscheduled visit by the actor to a screening of his much-anticipated film, Pushpa 2: The Rule.

The 41-year-old actor was taken into custody from his residence in Jubilee Hills and brought to the Chikkadpally Police Station. Present at the time of his arrest were his father, renowned filmmaker Allu Arvind, and other family members.

Police have registered charges against Mr. Arjun, members of his security team, and the theatre’s management, including culpable homicide not amounting to murder and voluntarily causing hurt. Investigators are focusing on whether the actor had obtained police permission for the visit and his interaction with fans at the venue, which is located in a busy area surrounded by multiple cinema halls.

The stampede unfolded after Allu Arjun and Pushpa 2 music director Devi Sri Prasad made an unannounced appearance at the theatre, attracting a massive crowd. According to Hyderabad Police Commissioner CV Anand, there was no prior notice from the actor’s team or the theatre management about the visit, nor were adequate crowd management measures implemented.

The deceased, identified as Revathi, and her nine-year-old son were caught in the chaos as fans pushed and shoved to catch a glimpse of the star. Police said the pair experienced severe suffocation in the packed crowd before being rescued and rushed to a nearby hospital, where Revathi was declared dead.

The commissioner noted that the lack of separate entry and exit points exacerbated the situation, further highlighting the negligence in planning.

Following the incident, Mr. Arjun moved the Telangana High Court on December 11 to request quashing of the case. However, Hyderabad Police continued their investigation, citing negligence on multiple fronts.

In the wake of the tragedy, Mr. Arjun expressed his grief on social media platform X, stating, “Deeply heartbroken by the tragic incident… My heartfelt condolences go out to the grieving family during this unimaginably difficult time.”

The actor pledged ₹25 lakh as financial assistance to Revathi’s family and assured full coverage of her son’s medical expenses.

Despite his public apology and promises of support, questions remain about the safety measures and planning surrounding the surprise appearance, which turned deadly. Further details are awaited as the investigation continues.

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Privilege motion against Union Minister Kiren Rijiju for calling Opposition MPs unworthy of House

The Union Minister said that if the Opposition cannot respect the chair, then they have no right to be a member of this House.

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Privilege Motion against Union Minister Kiren Rijiju for calling Opposition MPs unworthy of House

Sagarika Ghose, Trinamool Congress MP on Thursday moved a privilege motion against Union Minister Kiren Rijiju for calling opposition MPs unworthy of being in Rajya Sabha.

Reportedly, the notice was endorsed by 60 opposition MPs. This follows a day after Kiren Rijiju, speaking to opposition MPs in Rajya Sabha, said that they all are not worthy of being in this house.

Addressing the media, Trinamool MP Sagarika Ghose said that the Minister for Parliamentary Affairs, Kiren Rijiju, instead of doing his best to run Parliament smoothly, has chosen to repeatedly insult the opposition.

She added that Kiren Rijiju has insulted opposition members and used personal terms both inside and outside Parliament. She continued that this is totally unbecoming of the high office he holds and amounts to total misuse of his position.

In a privilege motion against Union Minister Kiren Rijiju, Trinamool MP accused him of misusing his office and using unparliamentary language against the opposition. Many senior leaders from all opposition parties have signed the motion, she added.

Earlier on Wednesday, Kiren Rijiju criticised opposition members, saying they were not worthy of being in the House. He further defended Vice President and Rajya Sabha Chairman Jagdeep Dhankhar, who has faced opposition attacks.

The Union Minister said that if the Opposition cannot respect the chair, then they have no right to be a member of this House.

Nearly sixty MPs from the opposition INDIA bloc on Tuesday submitted a notice in the Rajya Sabha for a no-confidence motion against Jagdeep Dhankhar. The Opposition accused him of being extremely partisan in his role as chairman of the Upper House.

In the no-confidence motion, Congress Chief Mallikarjun Kharge said that the Opposition have no personal enmity or political fight with him, but want to tell the countrymen that they have taken this step to safeguard democracy, the Constitution, and after giving it a lot of thought.

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