India News

Why the BJP is (over)confident that it will win in UP

Published

9 years ago

March 10, 2017

A blinkered view gives a pretty picture where the party accesses large sections except Muslims

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]A blinkered view gives a pretty picture where the party accesses large sections save Muslims

By Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr

There is little doubt that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is emotionally, ideologically and politically invested in Uttar Pradesh. The most populous state is at the heart of the Hindu heartland. BJP does not fight shy of the fact that it is a Hindi heartland party. As a matter of fact it wants to flaunt it even.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set his heart on UP from 2013 onwards when he was declared the prime ministerial candidate of the party in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. First, he chose to contest from Varanasi, with its unmistakable Hindu connection. Then he deputed Amit Shah, his Gujarat confidante to focus on UP in 2014. The strategy seemed to have paid off. The BJP won 73 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state. It was natural that Shah was credited with the success of the BJP juggernaut in UP, and he was rewarded by making him the president of the party.

Now, both Modi and Shah want to prove that they have grown roots in UP. As one of Modi’s cabinet ministers said on condition of anonymity, “We (the BJP) want to prove that 2014 Lok Sabha election was no fluke.” So, Modi, Shah and the rest in the party are sparing no effort to win in the state. Shah’s constituency by constituency, booth by booth – BJP leaders lay much store by their booth management skills – approach which paid dividends in 2014 is ostensibly replicated this time round. And it is believed that it will work a second time round. What the BJP fails to understand is that it is not the thoroughness of the preparation alone that matters, and that it depends on more than anything else it depends on the preference of the people as such.

Apart from the desire and determination to win UP, the BJP strategists also seem to believe that they have been dealt a winning hand as it were when the electoral cards were shuffled. They think that the political appeal of Samajwadi Party (SP) is confined to its core constituency of Yadavs and not to the whole spectrum of the backward classes/castes, and that of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to Jatavs and not to Dalits in general. Another Union minister, who gives the spin to the BJP thesis, says that half of the Muslim vote would go to the SP, and the other half to BSP.

In contrast, the minister arguing the case of electoral prospects of the party said that the upper castes are with the BJP, and so are the various segments of the other backward classes/castes and the remaining Dalits, the Valmikis. Of course, it is a big presumption. Even if it is assumed that many of backward class segments would not go with the SP, and therefore could vote for BJP because Congress, the other big national party in the fray in the state, is not a big players anymore and it has reduced itself to the status of a junior alliance partner to SP, the big local players. There is also the possibility that the BJP would want to choose a candidate from one of the non-Yadav backward classes as a chief ministerial candidate. But rivalries between the many non-Yadav backward classes/castes are conveniently ignored by the BJP spinmeisters. It is also not clear as to why the non-Jatav Dalits, the Valmikis, should choose BJP because they have not much to gain from the bargain. The BJP will not be able to please them all with the temptation of office.

What is interesting in the BJP is argument is that there is ideological thrust to the campaign though there is a subtle and not-so-subtle Hindutva or Hindu communalism at play here. The BJP is reconciled to the fact that Muslims will not vote for it, and so it does not factor in Muslims in its caste/community electoral calculus. If the BJP leaders are embarrassed about it, they do not show it. But they are displaying hard-nosed political realism by not counting on Muslims, but they are overstating their case by assuming that the Muslim would split, almost in half between the SP and BSP.

The other big assumption of the BJP, and even that of the pollsters, is that it is not a three-cornered contest where SP-Congress, BSP and BJP are all equal contenders and that that the vote would split three-ways. The complexity is simplified by reducing BSP into a distant third, and that it is essentially a contest between SP-Congress on the one hand and the BJP on the other. It is not even being contended that it could be a battle between BJP and BSP. This is a grudging recognition by the BJP that Akhilesh Yadav has clawed his way back into the contest.

Though there are some who are arguing that the BSP is the silent player which would steal the show on Saturday, there seems to be no reliable or tangible proof that the BSP outreach to the other castes and communities is gaining traction or not. This does not mean that BSP has failed to reach out beyond its core constituency. It just means that the pollsters have failed to detect it. Even the ardent supporters of BSP in media have not argued convincingly enough that a significant number of Muslims and Brahmins have been won over by party of Dalits. There is of course the plausible inference that Muslims are not too happy with SP post-Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013.

There are enough chinks in the constructed political armour of the BJP, which could turn out to be a sour point on Saturday.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Related Topics:Akhilesh Amit Shah BJP Modi Up

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India stresses mutual respect in ties with Italy after Congress’ Meloni remark

India stressed mutual respect and understanding in its ties with Italy after Congress leaders, including Rahul Gandhi, made remarks involving Giorgia Meloni.

Published

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August 14, 2026

APNLive Desk

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The Ministry of External Affairs said India and Italy share strong bilateral ties and expressed its commitment to further strengthening the relationship.

“We share deep and strong ties with Italy, and we are committed to further strengthening this relationship,” the MEA said. It added that friendship and bilateral relations between countries should be maintained within a framework of mutual respect and understanding.

The statement came after a political controversy over remarks made at a Congress event in Delhi.

Rahul Gandhi’s mock hug draws BJP criticism

At the Congress event, Rahul Gandhi greeted party leader Sandeep Dikshit with a mock hug. Gandhi had earlier criticised the Prime Minister’s approach to diplomacy, suggesting that it was being reduced to symbolic gestures such as hugging foreign leaders.

Dikshit then brought Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni into the exchange with a remark, following which Rahul Gandhi played along.

The episode drew sharp criticism from BJP leaders, who accused the Congress leader of using inappropriate language against the Prime Minister and lowering the dignity associated with the office of the Leader of Opposition.

Union Education Minister Pralhad Joshi questioned Rahul Gandhi’s conduct and said India required mature leadership. He also criticised remarks in which Gandhi had referred to the government as “jokers and clowns”.

BJP leaders target Rahul Gandhi

Union Minister Giriraj Singh also attacked Rahul Gandhi, describing him as “mentally frustrated” and questioning his conduct.

BJP MP Bansuri Swaraj said Rahul Gandhi’s language was inconsistent with the dignity expected from the Leader of Opposition.

BJP leader Shehzad Poonawalla also criticised the Congress leader, saying that while disagreement with Prime Minister Modi was legitimate, bringing a foreign woman leader into what he described as a crude joke was neither appropriate nor statesmanlike.

The MEA’s statement, meanwhile, focused on India’s bilateral relationship with Italy and reiterated that mutual respect and understanding remain important to maintaining ties between the two countries.

India News

Assam BJP leader Bikash Dhar found dead, 5 arrested for murder

BJP leader Bikash Dhar, 52, was found dead in an abandoned house in Assam’s Sribhumi district after being reported missing on August 12. Police have arrested five people in connection with the alleged murder.

Published

7 hours ago

August 14, 2026

APNLive Desk

A 52-year-old BJP leader who had been missing for two days was found dead in Assam’s Sribhumi district on Friday, with police alleging that he was murdered.

Bikash Dhar, a resident of Chagalmowa village under Bazaricherra police station, was found dead inside an abandoned house in the Yogicherra area near the Tripura border on Friday morning.

Dhar’s family had filed a missing complaint on August 12 after he left home following a phone call.

According to his son Madan Dhar, Bikash left around 1 pm after saying that he had to attend an emergency meeting. When he did not return and his phone was switched off, the family began searching for him and later approached the police.

Five arrested in murder case

Sribhumi Superintendent of Police Leena Doley said an investigation was launched after the missing complaint was received. The probe was conducted under the supervision of the Additional Superintendent of Police (Crime).

Police said five people have been arrested in connection with the alleged murder. They were identified as Abdul Salam, Sifat Ali, Abdul Ahad, Saiful Ali and Badrul Haque.

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Another person, identified as Sunam Miya, was named during the investigation and reportedly fled to Tripura on the night of the incident.

Police find injury and cut marks on body

Police said injury and cut marks were found on Dhar’s body, and a murder case has been registered.

During the recovery of the alleged weapon, police said accused Badrul Haque attempted to escape from custody. A police constable was injured during the incident.

Police said they fired at Haque’s leg to prevent him from escaping, resulting in a bullet wound.

The investigation into the circumstances surrounding Dhar’s death and the alleged involvement of the accused is underway.

India News

Jharkhand CID raids multiple locations in JPSC exam irregularities case

Jharkhand CID conducted raids across several districts to arrest seven accused in a case involving alleged irregularities in JPSC competitive examinations.

Published

17 hours ago

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APNLive Desk

The Jharkhand Crime Investigation Department (CID) has conducted raids at several locations across the state as part of its investigation into alleged irregularities in competitive examinations conducted by the Jharkhand Public Service Commission (JPSC).

According to a CID press release, the searches were carried out to arrest seven accused named in Case No. 16/2026 and execute warrants issued against them.

The accused have been identified as Aditya Pandey, Pawan Kumar Singh, Ravishankar Kumar, Santosh Kumar Singh, Sanand Prakash, Lalu Kumar Yadav and Saurabh Kumar Pandey.

The CID conducted searches in several districts as part of efforts to apprehend the accused. The agency said its investigation into the case is continuing.

CID examining evidence in exam irregularities case

The case relates to alleged irregularities in various competitive examinations conducted by the JPSC.

As part of the investigation, the CID has begun matching OMR carbon copies obtained during the probe and examining other evidence collected in the case.

The agency said further action would be taken according to law on the basis of the evidence gathered. It added that legally permissible action against those found involved in the case is underway.

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The CID raids come amid protests over alleged irregularities and paper leaks in examinations conducted by the JPSC and Jharkhand Staff Selection Commission (JSSC).

On August 13, the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) held protests in several cities, demanding a Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) probe and strict action against those responsible.

In New Delhi, students and ABVP workers protested outside Jharkhand Bhawan, calling on the Jharkhand government to take steps to restore confidence in the examination system.

According to the ABVP, similar protests were held in Lucknow, Kolkata, Guwahati, Agartala, Jaipur, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad, Surat, Gorakhpur, Jodhpur, Kota, Raipur, Bhubaneswar, Varanasi and Prayagraj, as well as at university campuses.

The student organisation has sought an impartial CBI investigation into alleged irregularities in JPSC and JSSC examinations. It has also demanded cancellation of the JSSC CGL examination, citing concerns over its integrity, along with fresh examinations where irregularities have been reported.

Meanwhile, JPSC-JSSC aspirants continue to protest at Jaipal Singh Munda Stadium in Ranchi. The ABVP has also alleged that students protesting peacefully on August 10 and 11 faced lathi-charge, water cannons and arrests.

Jharkhand CID has conducted raids at multiple locations in connection with alleged irregularities in JPSC competitive examinations and efforts to arrest seven accused named in Case No. 16/2026.

The action comes amid continuing student protests demanding a CBI probe into alleged JPSC-JSSC exam irregularities.