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5 state elections: Exit poll projections range from a farce to the far-fetched

Pollsters run full time advisories on election management charging hundreds of crores. They can make or break political careers with their advice “based on research” leading to denial or offer of party tickets.

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By Neeraj Mishra

Every year, some states have elections and every year, a farcical drama is played out on television channels, for days adding up to the actual counting hour. Familiar faces create and discuss highly improbable situations, stereotyped characters indulge in violence of words and extravagant exaggeration.

It is all aimed at creating confusion in the voter’s mind, infusing satta markets with more punters and general joy at the expense of viewers. This year is no different. India Today thinks the BJP can get 162 seats in Madhya Pradesh bettering its previous tally by more than 50. It does not pause to think why and how this is possible. The perceived anti-incumbency of 20 years has been turned on its head and a Gujarat-like result is possible without a similar communal situation or voter mindset.

At the same time, there are three other channels which think it’s a close race giving an average of only 100 seats to the BJP, 16 short of majority. Psephology is now a full time business with at least a dozen big companies that employ innumerable fake scientists.

Some of these companies have taken this to the next level like Prashant Kishor. They run full time advisories on election management charging hundreds of crores. They can make or break political careers with their advise “based on research” leading to denial or offer of party tickets. Clearly, winning is the only thing that matters as stakes are too high and the prize is control over the entire system at the state level.

Back to the exit polls though, the song on Chhattisgarh is quite identical in every channel. Every psephologist worth his salt knows that the BJP was so far behind in 2018 at 15 seats compared to the Congress’ 70 that to recover and beat it would be next to impossible, so every channel has the Congress ahead. But in a house of 90 to say that BJP will get between 36-46 seats and Congress will get 40-50 seats is a joke at the very least.

It would mean both parties are forming the government and the researcher is not sure so he has played safe. Keeping a two per cent margin in predictions is absolutely unacceptable here, since traditionally the difference between the two parties has been less than 2 per cent, except in 2018. Even a 0.75 per cent difference in votes can lead to a BJP-50 and Congress-38 situation in 2013. So to say, the BJP can get between 36 to 46 seats is absurd.

It’s the difference between losing and forming the government. After having covered more than two dozen elections, one has seen that the safest way to predict results is based on the prevailing mood about three months before the elections are announced. Barring something as drastic as Pulwama, people are unlikely to change their mind at the last moment.

So to say all along the campaign period that such and such party is improving its position is mostly low conjecture. Another noticeable thing in this elections has been the freebies on offer by sitting governments in all states. Shivraj Singh Chouhan beat them all by announcing he would give Rs 3000 per month to every married woman if voted back to power.

He even delivered two installments during the campaign period while the Election Commission did nothing about it, it did stop K. Chandrashekhar Rao from dispensing his pro-farmer cash. So have the labharthis (beneficiaries) then appropriated this round of elections? They certainly have caused a major rift among psephologists.

The wide difference in their predictions is perhaps also caused by which set of Labharthi they talked to. Labharthis also tend to aggregate their votes regionally. For instance in famine-ridden Bundelkhand in Madhya Pradesh, Rs 3000 means a lot but not so much in more affluent Malwa-Nimad.

The Congress’ offer of loan waiver may trump the BJP’s offer of Rs 12000 per annum to every woman over 18 in the Chhattisgarh plains but in the hilly tribal areas, it still rings a bell. Exit poll is an effective salve to pacify nervous candidates and supporters. No one really remembers or credits the channels with anything even if they were spot on. It is only a three-day carnival and should be treated as such. Real life happens on counting day.

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AAP targets Delhi LG with Ghajini dig over pollution row, BJP hits back

AAP’s ‘Ghajini’ dig at Delhi LG over air pollution has drawn a sharp response from the BJP, escalating the political blame game as the capital’s AQI remains poor.

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The political sparring over Delhi’s air pollution intensified after the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) took a swipe at Lieutenant Governor Vinai Kumar Saxena using a film reference, prompting a sharp rebuttal from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The exchange comes at a time when air quality in the national capital has shown marginal improvement but continues to remain in the “poor” category.

The trigger for the latest round of accusations was a letter written by LG Saxena to AAP’s national convener and former chief minister Arvind Kejriwal. In the letter, the LG claimed that when he had raised concerns about pollution during Kejriwal’s tenure as chief minister, the issue was played down. According to Saxena, Kejriwal had remarked that pollution becomes a topic of discussion only for a few days every year before fading from public attention.

AAP’s ‘Ghajini’ poster attack

Reacting to the letter, AAP accused the LG of shifting responsibility instead of addressing the ongoing pollution crisis. The party shared an edited image on X, portraying Saxena as the lead character from the film Ghajini, a role associated with short-term memory loss.

In the post, AAP alleged that the LG was ignoring the fact that the BJP is currently in power in Delhi and therefore accountable for managing the pollution situation. The caption accompanying the image read, “L – Low Quality; G – Ghajini,” while the poster claimed that the LG had “become Ghajini.” The visual also carried text suggesting blame being repeatedly placed on Arvind Kejriwal for rising AQI levels.

BJP’s response and counter-accusation

The BJP responded strongly to AAP’s jibe, asserting that while the present government is addressing pollution, responsibility for long-term damage cannot be ignored. Speaking to media, Delhi BJP chief Virendra Sachdeva said the party is answerable for current conditions but questioned whether it should also be held accountable for what he termed the failures of the previous AAP government over the past 12 years.

Sachdeva echoed the claims mentioned in the LG’s letter, stating that concerns over pollution were earlier dismissed as seasonal issues. He further argued that air pollution is a year-round problem and accused AAP of attempting to shift the entire burden onto a government that has been in office for only the past several months.

Referring to the ‘Ghajini’ poster, the BJP leader said that if forgetfulness was the theme, AAP should have used Kejriwal’s image instead, alleging that the former chief minister had distanced himself from his responsibilities after electoral setbacks. He added that the current administration would require time to correct what he described as mistakes made during the previous government’s tenure.

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Traffic slows in Himachal Pradesh as year-end tourist rush chokes roads to Shimla, Manali

Heavy tourist inflow during the Christmas-New Year period has slowed traffic in Himachal Pradesh, with Shimla, Manali and Dharamshala witnessing long vehicle queues.

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Shimla traffic

Traffic movement across key hill destinations in Himachal Pradesh slowed to a crawl as a heavy influx of tourists marked the year-end holiday season. Long weekends around Christmas and New Year prompted travellers, particularly from Delhi-NCR, to head towards Shimla, Manali and Dharamshala, leading to long queues of vehicles on mountain roads.

A major attraction this season is the nine-day Winter Carnival being held at the historic Ridge Ground in Shimla. The event has drawn visitors from different parts of the country, with many attending it for the first time. Tourists described the carnival as lively and enjoyable, especially for families visiting during Christmas week.

Some visitors said the festive atmosphere exceeded their expectations, while others felt the absence of snowfall slightly dampened the experience. Tourists from states including Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Mizoram shared that snowfall during Christmas would have added to the overall charm of the hill station.

Heavy inflow of vehicles, police step up arrangements

Apart from Shimla, popular destinations such as Kullu-Manali and Dharamshala are also witnessing a steady rise in tourist numbers. Gramphu has emerged as the only snow spot currently accessible to non-4×4 vehicles, adding to the pressure on limited routes.

Police officials estimate that between 8,000 and 10,000 vehicles are entering Shimla daily during the Christmas-to-New Year period. Over the next seven days, more than three lakh tourists are expected to visit the state capital alone.

To manage traffic and ensure safety, around 400 police personnel have been deployed across sensitive and high-footfall areas. The Shimla police administration has appealed to tourists to follow traffic rules and cooperate with authorities. Officials said preparations have been made for crowd management, security checks and traffic regulation at major junctions, as congestion continues to build across the hill town.

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BJP gets its first mayor in Kerala as VV Rajesh takes charge in Thiruvananthapuram

The BJP has created history in Kerala after VV Rajesh was sworn in as Thiruvananthapuram’s first mayor from the party, ending decades of CPM control over the civic body.

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BJP

The BJP on Friday marked a historic political moment in Kerala after VV Rajesh was sworn in as the mayor of the Thiruvananthapuram Municipal Corporation. This is the first time the party has secured the mayor’s post in the state capital, signalling a significant shift in Kerala’s urban political landscape.

Rajesh’s election follows the party’s unexpected performance in the municipal elections held earlier this month, where the BJP emerged as the single-largest party by winning 50 of the 101 seats in the civic body.

Rajesh promises inclusive development across all wards

After taking oath, VV Rajesh said the focus of the new leadership would be on collective growth and inclusive governance. He stated that development work would be carried out across all 101 wards, with the aim of transforming Thiruvananthapuram into a developed city.

Rajesh secured 51 votes in the mayoral election conducted in the 100-member House, crossing the halfway mark. The CPM candidate RP Shivaji received 29 votes, while the Congress-led UDF nominee KS Sabarinathan got 19 votes. One independent councillor abstained, while support from another independent councillor proved crucial for the BJP’s victory.

Breakthrough comes ahead of key state election

The development comes less than six months before a major election in Kerala, a state where the BJP has historically struggled. The party has never formed a government in the state and has had limited legislative presence in the past.

The mayoral win also ends decades of control by the CPM over the Thiruvananthapuram civic body. The state capital is also a Lok Sabha constituency currently represented by Congress leader Shashi Tharoor.

BJP leadership targets governance overhaul

Following the swearing-in ceremony, Kerala BJP president Rajeev Chandrasekhar criticised the previous administration, alleging long-standing governance failures and corruption in the civic body. He said basic civic issues such as drainage, water supply and solid waste management had been neglected for years, and asserted that the new administration would begin work immediately to improve the city’s infrastructure.

The party has set a target of making Thiruvananthapuram one of the top cities in the country, according to Chandrasekhar.

Internal debate preceded mayoral choice

The selection of VV Rajesh as mayor followed internal discussions within the BJP. The party was reportedly divided between Rajesh and former Director General of Police R Sreelekha before consensus emerged in Rajesh’s favour. Sreelekha, who won from the Sasthamangalam ward, is known for her earlier role handling economic offence cases.

Union minister Suresh Gopi and Rajeev Chandrasekhar were present during Rajesh’s oath-taking ceremony.

Wider impact on Kerala’s political landscape

Overall results in the local body elections have posed challenges for the ruling Left Democratic Front, while the Congress-led United Democratic Front secured control of four out of six municipal bodies. Prime Minister Narendra Modi later described the BJP’s Thiruvananthapuram win as a “watershed moment,” crediting party workers for the breakthrough.

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