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5 state elections: Exit poll projections range from a farce to the far-fetched

Pollsters run full time advisories on election management charging hundreds of crores. They can make or break political careers with their advice “based on research” leading to denial or offer of party tickets.

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By Neeraj Mishra

Every year, some states have elections and every year, a farcical drama is played out on television channels, for days adding up to the actual counting hour. Familiar faces create and discuss highly improbable situations, stereotyped characters indulge in violence of words and extravagant exaggeration.

It is all aimed at creating confusion in the voter’s mind, infusing satta markets with more punters and general joy at the expense of viewers. This year is no different. India Today thinks the BJP can get 162 seats in Madhya Pradesh bettering its previous tally by more than 50. It does not pause to think why and how this is possible. The perceived anti-incumbency of 20 years has been turned on its head and a Gujarat-like result is possible without a similar communal situation or voter mindset.

At the same time, there are three other channels which think it’s a close race giving an average of only 100 seats to the BJP, 16 short of majority. Psephology is now a full time business with at least a dozen big companies that employ innumerable fake scientists.

Some of these companies have taken this to the next level like Prashant Kishor. They run full time advisories on election management charging hundreds of crores. They can make or break political careers with their advise “based on research” leading to denial or offer of party tickets. Clearly, winning is the only thing that matters as stakes are too high and the prize is control over the entire system at the state level.

Back to the exit polls though, the song on Chhattisgarh is quite identical in every channel. Every psephologist worth his salt knows that the BJP was so far behind in 2018 at 15 seats compared to the Congress’ 70 that to recover and beat it would be next to impossible, so every channel has the Congress ahead. But in a house of 90 to say that BJP will get between 36-46 seats and Congress will get 40-50 seats is a joke at the very least.

It would mean both parties are forming the government and the researcher is not sure so he has played safe. Keeping a two per cent margin in predictions is absolutely unacceptable here, since traditionally the difference between the two parties has been less than 2 per cent, except in 2018. Even a 0.75 per cent difference in votes can lead to a BJP-50 and Congress-38 situation in 2013. So to say, the BJP can get between 36 to 46 seats is absurd.

It’s the difference between losing and forming the government. After having covered more than two dozen elections, one has seen that the safest way to predict results is based on the prevailing mood about three months before the elections are announced. Barring something as drastic as Pulwama, people are unlikely to change their mind at the last moment.

So to say all along the campaign period that such and such party is improving its position is mostly low conjecture. Another noticeable thing in this elections has been the freebies on offer by sitting governments in all states. Shivraj Singh Chouhan beat them all by announcing he would give Rs 3000 per month to every married woman if voted back to power.

He even delivered two installments during the campaign period while the Election Commission did nothing about it, it did stop K. Chandrashekhar Rao from dispensing his pro-farmer cash. So have the labharthis (beneficiaries) then appropriated this round of elections? They certainly have caused a major rift among psephologists.

The wide difference in their predictions is perhaps also caused by which set of Labharthi they talked to. Labharthis also tend to aggregate their votes regionally. For instance in famine-ridden Bundelkhand in Madhya Pradesh, Rs 3000 means a lot but not so much in more affluent Malwa-Nimad.

The Congress’ offer of loan waiver may trump the BJP’s offer of Rs 12000 per annum to every woman over 18 in the Chhattisgarh plains but in the hilly tribal areas, it still rings a bell. Exit poll is an effective salve to pacify nervous candidates and supporters. No one really remembers or credits the channels with anything even if they were spot on. It is only a three-day carnival and should be treated as such. Real life happens on counting day.

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International Bihar and Purvanchal Festival to be held in Sydney on March 22

Praveen Kumar reiterated, “The land of Bihar produces gold. Such a region cannot remain poor. What is needed is collective effort, work in the right direction, and the creation of opportunities for the people.”

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With the objective of providing a new global direction to development, investment, and opportunities in Bihar and the Purvanchal region, the International Bihar and Purvanchal Festival will be organised on March 22, 2026, in Sydney, Australia. This was announced by Praveen Kumar, the chief organiser of the event, during a press conference held in Patna on January 15.

Praveen Kumar said several prominent personalities from India and abroad, along with representatives from industry, policymakers, and members of the Indian diaspora, will participate in the Sydney event.

On this platform, the vision of a “Developed Bihar and Purvanchal” will be formally launched, and a concrete roadmap for Bihar’s overall development will be deliberated upon. He said the festival is not merely a cultural event but a global platform to mobilise international cooperation, investment, and policy-level support for Bihar.

“We will extend support at every level for the development of Bihar and Purvanchal and create opportunities that enable better utilisation of local talent and resources,” Praveen Kumar said.

Referring to his earlier remarks made during a podcast, Praveen Kumar reiterated, “The land of Bihar produces gold. Such a region cannot remain poor. What is needed is collective effort, work in the right direction, and the creation of opportunities for the people.”

It was also informed during the press conference that the Sydney event will feature special sessions on investment, education, skill development, culture, and diaspora engagement for Bihar. The objective is to highlight that Bihar is not only rich in potential but also capable of providing leadership on the global stage.

According to the organisers, the festival will prove to be a significant step towards giving Bihar a new international identity.

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PM Modi urges people to read Tirukkural on Thiruvalluvar Day

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thiruvalluvar Day appealed to people to read the Tirukkural, calling it a reflection of the humane and harmonious ideals of Tamil philosopher-poet Thiruvalluvar.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday urged people across the country to read the Tirukkural, highlighting its enduring relevance and the intellectual legacy of Tamil philosopher-poet Thiruvalluvar.

Marking Thiruvalluvar Day, which coincides with the Pongal celebrations every year, the prime minister paid tribute to the revered scholar, describing him as a symbol of harmony, compassion and Tamil cultural excellence.

In a message shared on social media platform X, Modi said Thiruvalluvar’s works and ideals continue to inspire countless people even today. He noted that the philosopher envisioned a society rooted in compassion and balance.

The prime minister encouraged citizens to engage with the Tirukkural, a classical Tamil text that deals with various aspects of human life, ethics and governance, calling it a window into the profound intellect of Thiruvalluvar.

Thiruvalluvar Day is observed annually to honour the philosopher-poet, whose literary contributions remain central to Tamil culture and thought.

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BJP, Thackerays or Pawars: Maharashtra civic body poll results awaited today

Counting of votes for 29 municipal corporations in Maharashtra, including the key BMC and Pune civic bodies, begins today, with BJP, Thackerays and Pawars awaiting crucial results.

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The political balance in Maharashtra’s urban centres will become clearer today as votes are counted for elections to 29 municipal corporations across the state. The results are keenly awaited amid high-stakes contests involving the BJP, the Thackeray cousins and the reunited Pawar factions.

Polling was held for 2,869 seats across 893 wards, with 3.48 crore eligible voters deciding the fate of 15,931 candidates. Counting is scheduled to begin at 10 am.

Mumbai and Pune in sharp focus

All eyes are on Mumbai, where the contest for the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has drawn statewide attention. Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena chief Raj Thackeray joined hands after more than two decades in a bid to reclaim control of the country’s richest civic body.

The BMC, which has an annual budget of over Rs 74,400 crore, went to polls after a nine-year gap, following a four-year delay. A total of 1,700 candidates contested the 227 seats.

Exit polls suggest a strong performance by the BJP–Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction) alliance in Mumbai. An aggregate of multiple surveys projects the ruling alliance ahead, with the Shiv Sena (UBT) and allies trailing, while the Congress is expected to secure a limited number of seats. Exit polls have also indicated possible voting consolidation among Maratha and Muslim voters behind the Thackeray-led alliance, while women and young voters may tilt towards the BJP.

The last BMC election in 2017 saw the undivided Shiv Sena retain control of the civic body it had dominated for decades.

In Pune, the spotlight is on the unusual alliance between rival NCP factions led by Ajit Pawar and Sharad Pawar. Exit polls indicate the BJP could emerge as the largest party in the Pune Municipal Corporation (PMC), with both NCP factions and the Shiv Sena also expected to secure a share of seats.

Statewide counting underway

Apart from Mumbai and Pune, counting will take place in several other key municipal corporations, including Thane, Navi Mumbai, Kalyan-Dombivli, Nagpur, Nashik, Pimpri-Chinchwad, Mira-Bhayandar, Vasai-Virar, Solapur, Kolhapur, Amravati, Akola, Jalgaon, Malegaon, Latur, Dhule, Jalna, Sangli-Miraj-Kupwad, Nanded-Waghala, Chandrapur, Parbhani, Panvel, Bhiwandi-Nizampur, Ulhasnagar, Ahilyanagar and Ichalkaranji.

With major parties treating these civic polls as a referendum on their urban appeal ahead of future state and national elections, today’s results are expected to shape Maharashtra’s political narrative in the months to come.

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