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5 state elections: Exit poll projections range from a farce to the far-fetched

Pollsters run full time advisories on election management charging hundreds of crores. They can make or break political careers with their advice “based on research” leading to denial or offer of party tickets.

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By Neeraj Mishra

Every year, some states have elections and every year, a farcical drama is played out on television channels, for days adding up to the actual counting hour. Familiar faces create and discuss highly improbable situations, stereotyped characters indulge in violence of words and extravagant exaggeration.

It is all aimed at creating confusion in the voter’s mind, infusing satta markets with more punters and general joy at the expense of viewers. This year is no different. India Today thinks the BJP can get 162 seats in Madhya Pradesh bettering its previous tally by more than 50. It does not pause to think why and how this is possible. The perceived anti-incumbency of 20 years has been turned on its head and a Gujarat-like result is possible without a similar communal situation or voter mindset.

At the same time, there are three other channels which think it’s a close race giving an average of only 100 seats to the BJP, 16 short of majority. Psephology is now a full time business with at least a dozen big companies that employ innumerable fake scientists.

Some of these companies have taken this to the next level like Prashant Kishor. They run full time advisories on election management charging hundreds of crores. They can make or break political careers with their advise “based on research” leading to denial or offer of party tickets. Clearly, winning is the only thing that matters as stakes are too high and the prize is control over the entire system at the state level.

Back to the exit polls though, the song on Chhattisgarh is quite identical in every channel. Every psephologist worth his salt knows that the BJP was so far behind in 2018 at 15 seats compared to the Congress’ 70 that to recover and beat it would be next to impossible, so every channel has the Congress ahead. But in a house of 90 to say that BJP will get between 36-46 seats and Congress will get 40-50 seats is a joke at the very least.

It would mean both parties are forming the government and the researcher is not sure so he has played safe. Keeping a two per cent margin in predictions is absolutely unacceptable here, since traditionally the difference between the two parties has been less than 2 per cent, except in 2018. Even a 0.75 per cent difference in votes can lead to a BJP-50 and Congress-38 situation in 2013. So to say, the BJP can get between 36 to 46 seats is absurd.

It’s the difference between losing and forming the government. After having covered more than two dozen elections, one has seen that the safest way to predict results is based on the prevailing mood about three months before the elections are announced. Barring something as drastic as Pulwama, people are unlikely to change their mind at the last moment.

So to say all along the campaign period that such and such party is improving its position is mostly low conjecture. Another noticeable thing in this elections has been the freebies on offer by sitting governments in all states. Shivraj Singh Chouhan beat them all by announcing he would give Rs 3000 per month to every married woman if voted back to power.

He even delivered two installments during the campaign period while the Election Commission did nothing about it, it did stop K. Chandrashekhar Rao from dispensing his pro-farmer cash. So have the labharthis (beneficiaries) then appropriated this round of elections? They certainly have caused a major rift among psephologists.

The wide difference in their predictions is perhaps also caused by which set of Labharthi they talked to. Labharthis also tend to aggregate their votes regionally. For instance in famine-ridden Bundelkhand in Madhya Pradesh, Rs 3000 means a lot but not so much in more affluent Malwa-Nimad.

The Congress’ offer of loan waiver may trump the BJP’s offer of Rs 12000 per annum to every woman over 18 in the Chhattisgarh plains but in the hilly tribal areas, it still rings a bell. Exit poll is an effective salve to pacify nervous candidates and supporters. No one really remembers or credits the channels with anything even if they were spot on. It is only a three-day carnival and should be treated as such. Real life happens on counting day.

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Chaos mars Lionel Messi’s Kolkata GOAT Tour event as fans protest poor arrangements

Lionel Messi’s brief appearance in Kolkata was overshadowed by chaos as fans alleged mismanagement, prompting an apology and an official enquiry by the state government.

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Messy event Chaos kolkata

Lionel Messi’s much-anticipated appearance in Kolkata turned chaotic on Saturday after thousands of fans alleged mismanagement at the Yuva Bharati Krirangan, leaving many unable to even see the Argentine football icon despite holding high-priced tickets

Fans express anger over limited access

The Kolkata leg of the G.O.A.T. Tour was billed as a special moment for Indian football fans, with ticket prices ranging between Rs 5,000 and Rs 25,000. However, discontent grew rapidly inside the stadium as several attendees claimed their view of Messi was obstructed by security personnel and invited guests positioned close to him.

As frustration mounted, some fans resorted to throwing chairs and bottles from the stands, forcing organisers to intervene and cut the programme short.

Event cut short amid disorder

Messi reached the venue around 11:15 am and remained there for roughly 20 minutes. He was expected to take a full lap of the stadium, but that plan was abandoned as the situation deteriorated soon after he emerged from the tunnel.

The disorder also meant that prominent personalities, including actor Shah Rukh Khan, former India cricket captain Sourav Ganguly and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, could not participate in the programme as scheduled.

Organisers whisk Messi away

With fans breaching security and some vandalising canopies set up at the Salt Lake Stadium, the organisers, along with security personnel, escorted Messi out of the venue to prevent further escalation.

Several attendees described the event as poorly organised, with some fans calling it an “absolute disgrace” and blaming mismanagement for spoiling what was meant to be a celebratory occasion.

Mamata Banerjee apologises, orders enquiry

Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee later issued a public apology to Messi and the fans, expressing shock over the mismanagement. She announced the formation of an enquiry committee headed by retired Justice Ashim Kumar Ray, with senior state officials as members.

The committee has been tasked with conducting a detailed probe, fixing responsibility and suggesting steps to ensure such incidents are not repeated in the future.

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Delhi enforces new law to regulate fees in private schools

Delhi has notified a new law to regulate private school fees, capping charges, banning capitation fees and mandating transparent, committee-approved fee structures.

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Delhi School fees

The Delhi government has officially brought into force a new law aimed at regulating fees in private schools, notifying the Delhi School Education (Transparency in Fixation and Regulation of Fee) Act, 2025. The notification was issued on Wednesday, nearly four months after the Bill was cleared by the Delhi Assembly and received approval from Lieutenant Governor V K Saxena.

The Act establishes a comprehensive framework to govern how private unaided schools fix and collect fees, with a clear emphasis on transparency, accountability and relief for parents facing repeated fee hikes.

What the new Act provides for

Under the legislation, private unaided recognised schools can charge fees only under clearly defined heads such as registration, admission, tuition, annual charges and development fees. The law caps registration fees at Rs 25, admission charges at Rs 200 and caution money at Rs 500, which must be refunded with interest. Development fees have been restricted to a maximum of 10 per cent of the annual tuition fee.

Schools have also been directed to disclose all fee components in detail and maintain separate accounts for each category. Any fee not specifically permitted under the Act will be treated as an unjustified demand.

The law strictly prohibits the collection of capitation fees, whether direct or indirect. It further mandates that user-based service charges must be collected strictly on a no-profit, no-loss basis and only from students who actually use the service.

Accounting norms and restrictions on surplus funds

To ensure financial transparency, schools are required to follow prescribed accounting standards, maintain fixed asset registers and make proper provisions for employee benefits. The transfer of funds collected from students to any other legal entity, including a school’s managing society or trust, has been barred.

Any surplus generated must either be refunded to parents or adjusted against future fees, according to the notification.

Protection for students and parents

The Act also places restrictions on punitive action by schools in fee-related matters. Schools are prohibited from withholding results, striking off names or denying entry to classrooms due to unpaid or delayed fees.

The law applies uniformly to all private unaided schools in Delhi, including minority institutions and schools not built on government-allotted land.

School-level committees to approve fees

A key feature of the legislation is the mandatory formation of a School-Level Fee Regulation Committee by July 15 each year. The committee will include five parents selected through a draw of lots from the parent-teacher association, with compulsory representation of women and members from Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and socially and educationally backward classes.

A representative from the Directorate of Education will also be part of the panel, while the chairperson will be from the school management.

Schools must submit their proposed fee structure to the committee by July 31. The committee can approve or reduce the proposed fees but cannot increase them. Once finalised, the fee structure will remain fixed for three academic years.

The approved fees must be displayed prominently on the school notice board in Hindi, English and the medium of instruction, and uploaded on the school website wherever applicable.

The Delhi government had earlier described the legislation as a significant step towards curbing arbitrary fee hikes after widespread complaints from parents at the start of the academic session.

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Delhi air quality nears severe as smog blankets city, airport issues advisory

Delhi recorded very poor to severe air quality on Saturday, with dense smog affecting visibility and prompting an advisory from the city airport.

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Delhi pollution

Residents across Delhi and adjoining areas woke up to dense smog on Saturday morning, with air quality levels edging close to the ‘severe’ category in several locations

Data from the Central Pollution Control Board showed the overall Air Quality Index (AQI) at 390 at 8 am, placing it in the ‘very poor’ category. However, multiple monitoring stations in the national capital recorded AQI readings in the ‘severe’ range.

Areas reporting severe air quality included Anand Vihar (435), Ghazipur (435), Jahangirpuri (442), Rohini (436), Chandni Chowk (419), Burari Crossing (415), and RK Puram (404). The high pollution levels were accompanied by a mix of smog and shallow fog, which reduced visibility in several parts of the city during the early hours.

Smog reduces visibility, health risks rise

As per AQI classification, readings between 401 and 500 fall under the ‘severe’ category, indicating serious health risks. Officials note that prolonged exposure at such levels can trigger respiratory problems even among healthy individuals, while those with existing conditions face higher risks.

Dangerous pollution levels have become a recurring concern in Delhi during the winter months. On Friday as well, a thick haze covered the city, with the overall AQI recorded at 386 and visibility remaining poor in several localities.

Delhi airport activates low visibility procedures

Amid the deteriorating air quality, Delhi airport issued an advisory stating that low visibility procedures were in place. In a post on X, the airport confirmed that flight operations were normal at present but advised passengers to stay in touch with their respective airlines for the latest updates.

Despite some marginal improvement over recent weeks, large parts of the capital continue to remain under a blanket of toxic smog. The worsening situation has also intensified political sparring over pollution control measures in the city.

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