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The Unstoppable Donald

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The Unstoppable Donald

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The stay on his executive order banning entry of foreign nationals from seven predominantly Muslim countries to the United States may have been upheld in court, but mere technicalities will not dishearten the American president who has now learnt his lesson and will plan his course carefully 

By Sujit Bhar

US President Donald Trump’s exhortations about “so-called” judges and about how he will have the several bans on his executive order on immigration from seven Muslim states “overturned” hit a huge hurdle on February 9. A three-judge bench of the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit was unanimous in upholding the decision of a Federal District Court judge which had stayed the implementation of Trump’s executive order.

The district judge’s order had provided a temporary stay, and the decision of the bench is also a temporary one. If one knows Trump—and of late people have come to know his arrogance a little too well—he will not stop till the Supreme Court.

The order itself, which runs into 28 pages (plus one), has considered the circumstances under which an emergency order was sought from the Justice Department to have the district court ban lifted. And the bench was not satisfied. The court has been able to look into the immediate reality, an area Trump didn’t really care about while placing the blanket ban.

The bench said it considered “several factors, including… the degree of hardship caused by a stay or its denial, and the public interest in granting or denying a stay”. It was a technical judgement, which relied on the wording of the appeal of the Justice Department. The bench said: “We hold that the government has not shown a likelihood of success on the merits of its appeal, nor has it shown that failure to enter a stay would cause irreparable injury, and we therefore deny its emergency motion for a stay.”

The court order, therefore, does not look into the merits or demerits of the broader Trump executive order. Neither does it need to, at this point. What it needed to satisfy itself with was whether the Justice Department’s appeal to lift the ban itself has merit. The bench found that it does not.

The Justice Department’s appeal was possibly hastily prepared, without paying heed to specifics that seasoned judges would pounce on quickly. When an argument comes in front of judges, asking for the repeal of an order, the issue would be read from the last, backwards. This one got stuck within the periphery of the appeal itself. It had asked for a blanket withdrawal, as was wont, but the argument hinged on a total rejection, without scrutiny, because the two states seemingly cannot sue. The critical reason for rejecting the appeal wasn’t a broad sociopolitical one. It was because, among others, it would not allow eligible and meritorious foreign students to come in and attend universities.

This is a technical glitch for Trump and his band of men. They aren’t going to back out and walk into the sunset. The administration has said clearly that it will use “every legal means” to reinstate Trump’s executive order. So the legal battle continues, while experts look at what is extent of the US president’s power in enforcing an executive order.

Frankly, as it seems today, the powers are calibrated against the president being able to coerce the citizenry into doing things that would be harmful for society.

Interestingly, though “social harm” and national security happen to be the crux of Trump’s order. If national security is taken out of the order, “social harm” would assume immense proportions, with as many interpretations as there are races and sects. That would be hard to negotiate and create a legal minefield. Trump is not averse to walking that minefield, however.

As a beginning, Trump has declared that the district judge who blocked his travel ban remains responsible in the event of an attack on America. He castigated Judge James Robart for placing American lives in “peril”, because the blockade of the travel ban would supposedly result in terrorists from those seven Muslim countries “pouring in” to the country, endangering all.

However strange this contention, it was his primary peg for hanging his travel ban on the wall. That was what gave him the courage to declare, at a gala at the Mar a Lago resort in Florida (where he was holidaying): “We’ll win. For the safety of the country, we’ll win.”

It wasn’t surprising that Trump was quiet (till the time of writing this he has not spoken against the court order), while leaving a hapless Vice-President Mike Pence to cover for him, that too on the administration’s favourite Fox News. Pence has been quoted as saying: “We’re going to continue to use all legal means at our disposal to stay that order and move forward to take the steps necessary to protect our country.”

But The Donald has not been able to take the Mickey out of Pence, it seems. He still possesses a mind that can think. About the district judge’s order Pence has not called it “ridiculous”, like Trump has, but has been quoted as saying: “He (the judge) certainly does (have the authority to block the ban), and that’s why the administration is complying with that order as we speak.”

The fight will continue, and this time the Justice Department and the administration will surely be more careful.

One part of the order of the appellate bench says: “…The necessary connection can be drawn in at most two logical steps: (1) the executive order prevents nationals of seven countries from entering Washington and Minnesota; (2) as a result, some of these people will not enter state universities, some will not join those universities as faculty, some will be prevented from performing research, and some will not be permitted to return if they leave.”

If you read this carefully, probably the fight will not be just about the travel ban. It could well evolve into an avatar against the new anti-H1B acts that are progressing through the law-making processes even as we speak.

That will be another story.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Israel-Lebanon ceasefire to begin within hours as Trump announces 10-day truce

Israel and Lebanon may begin a 10-day ceasefire within hours after a proposal announced by Donald Trump amid ongoing tensions.

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Donald Trump

A temporary halt in hostilities between Israel and Lebanon is expected to begin within hours after US President Donald Trump announced a proposed 10-day ceasefire between the two sides, amid ongoing tensions in the region.

According to his statement, the ceasefire is likely to take effect around 5 p.m. Eastern Time, although independent confirmation from both sides is still awaited.

The development follows discussions involving Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, with mediation efforts led by the United States.

Officials indicated that the proposed truce is aimed at creating a limited window to reduce violence and potentially pave the way for broader diplomatic engagement. The situation along the Israel-Lebanon border has remained tense in recent weeks, with escalation linked to the activities of Hezbollah.

Diplomatic efforts have intensified in recent days, with discussions facilitated by the United States, including the involvement of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. However, details of the agreement and the extent of coordination between the parties remain unclear.

The situation remains fluid, and the success of the ceasefire will depend on adherence by all sides involved. The conflict has already led to significant humanitarian and geopolitical consequences, including displacement and disruption in affected areas.

While the proposed ceasefire is being seen as an important step toward de-escalation, broader negotiations involving regional stakeholders are expected to be necessary for any lasting resolution.

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US ends oil sanctions waiver for Iran and Russia, impact likely on India’s energy imports

The US decision to end the Iran and Russia oil waiver may impact India’s oil imports, fuel prices and global energy markets.

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US oil tanker

The United States has decided not to extend a temporary sanctions waiver that allowed limited trade in Iranian and Russian oil, marking a shift towards stricter enforcement of economic restrictions.

The waiver, introduced in March 2026, had permitted the sale of oil already loaded on ships to stabilise global supply during heightened geopolitical tensions. However, it is now set to expire around mid-April without renewal.

US officials have indicated that the move is part of a broader strategy to increase pressure on both Iran and Russia amid ongoing conflicts and geopolitical tensions.

What the waiver did and why it mattered

The short-term waiver allowed millions of barrels of oil—estimated at around 140 million barrels—to enter global markets, helping ease supply shortages and prevent sharp price spikes.

It also enabled countries like India to purchase discounted crude oil from Russia and resume limited imports from Iran after years of restrictions.

Impact on India

India, one of the world’s largest oil importers, is expected to feel the impact of the decision in several ways:

  • Reduced access to discounted oil
    India had been buying cheaper Russian crude and recently resumed Iranian imports under the waiver. Its end may limit these options.
  • Potential rise in fuel costs
    With fewer discounted supplies available, India may need to rely more on costlier sources, which could increase domestic fuel prices.
  • Supply diversification pressure
    India may need to explore alternative suppliers in the Middle East, Africa, or the US to maintain energy security.
  • Geopolitical balancing challenge
    The move adds pressure on India to align with US sanctions while managing its own economic interests.

Global energy market concerns

The end of the waiver comes at a time when global oil markets are already under stress due to conflict in West Asia and disruptions in key routes like the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysts warn that tightening sanctions could:

  • Reduce global oil supply
  • Increase price volatility
  • Intensify competition among major buyers like India and China

Bigger picture

The US decision reflects a broader shift from temporary relief measures to stricter enforcement of sanctions, even if it risks tightening global energy markets.

For India, the development highlights a recurring challenge—balancing affordable energy access with geopolitical realities.

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Sanctioned tanker fails to breach US blockade, turns back near Strait of Hormuz

A US-sanctioned tanker failed to cross the Hormuz blockade and turned back, underscoring rising tensions and disruption in global shipping routes.

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A US-sanctioned oil tanker failed to break through a newly imposed American naval blockade and was forced to turn back near the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting growing tensions in the region.

The vessel, identified as the Rich Starry, reversed its course after attempting to exit the Gulf, according to shipping data. The development comes just days after the United States enforced restrictions on ships linked to Iranian ports.

The blockade was announced by Donald Trump following the collapse of recent diplomatic talks with Iran. The move aims to restrict maritime traffic associated with Iranian trade.

Officials said that during the first 24 hours of enforcement, no vessel successfully crossed the blockade. Several ships, including the sanctioned tanker, complied with instructions from US forces and turned back toward regional waters.

The tanker is reported to be linked to a Chinese company previously sanctioned for dealing with Iran. It was carrying a cargo of methanol loaded from the United Arab Emirates at the time of the incident.

The situation underscores the rising risks in one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes. The Strait of Hormuz typically handles a significant share of global energy shipments, but traffic has sharply declined due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The blockade, which applies specifically to vessels travelling to or from Iranian ports, has added further uncertainty for shipping companies, insurers and global energy markets.

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