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Trump’s pull out of Iran N-deal may escalate oil prices

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Trump’s pull out of Iran N-deal may escalate oil prices

India will also be affected by oil price rise

The possibilities of US President Donald Trump’s pull out from Iran nuclear deal on May 12 has been influencing the crude oil market. The Brent Crude, the global benchmark, briefly soared above $75 per barrel on Monday after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that Iran was lying on its implementation of JCPOA conditions.

According to CNN, bringing back sanctions on Iran could knock out as much as 1 million barrels per day of crude supply, dealing a “blow to increasingly fragile energy markets”.

Micheal Wittner, the global head of oil research at Societe Generals, a French multinational banking and financial services, said, “There will be significant disruption. The market is assuming that oil sanctions will snap back onto Iran”.

Read More: Iran warns US not to withdraw from n-deal or face consequences

Meanwhile, Tehran based Press TV reports that the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) exported 2.8 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate to Asian and European countries in April, a record since the lifting of sanctions in early 2016.

China and India are the biggest buyers taking in 1.4 million bpd of Iran’s oil. South Korea and Japan are Iran’s other key customers in Asia where 60 percent of Iranian oil is exported.

The report further says that Europe receives almost all the other 40 percent of oil shipments from Iran.The major buyers include: France’s Total, Anglo-Dutch Shell, Italy’s Saras, Greek Hellenic Petroleum as well as Polish and Turkish companies.

Read More: Saudi Prince ask US to rethink on Iran-N deal

After January 2016, when US-led sanctions were lifted along with implementation of Iran nuclear deal known as JCPOA, Iran re-emerged as a major oil exporter. However, Trump’s threats to re-impose the US sanctions this month have sent jitters across the global oil market.

Meanwhile Reuters quoted Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia-Pacific at futures brokerage OANDA in Singapore, saying, “As May 12 Iran nuclear deadline nears, geopolitical developments will continue to drive oil market sentiments”.

On Monday, US President Donald Trump said that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s revelations about Iran lying on its nuclear project show he’s “100% right” about the Iranian nuclear agreement. He was quoted saying, “We’ll see what happens. I’m not telling you what I’m doing, but a lot of people think they know.”

Stephen Bennock, the oil analyst at Singapore based brokerage firm PVM Oil Associates, wrote to his clients late last week, “The Iranian nuclear deal is dead in the water and a Trump torpedo is fast approaching.”

Under the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear activities, in exchange of lifting sanctions against the country. Iran had quickly boosted its oil production by about 1 million barrels per day after the implementation of the deal in January 2016.

According to FEG estimates, if the sanctions are restored, Iran’s output could be slashed by 250,000 to 50,000 barrels per day by the end of 2018. This figure could rise to 500,000 to 1 million per day through 2019.

Read More: EU: US to lose trust if Washington withdraws from Iran N-deal

FGE has also warned that if no steps are taken to void left by Iran, the gap between supply and demand could shrink to the tightest level since 2013, when oil prices were above $ 100 a barrel.

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US freezes immigrant visa processing for 75 countries, India not in list

The United States suspends immigrant visa processing for 75 countries, excluding temporary visas, as part of stricter immigration measures.

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The United States has indefinitely suspended immigrant visa processing for 75 countries, targeting individuals seeking permanent residency based on nationality. The move, set to take effect on January 21, excludes tourist and temporary work visas, but is expected to have a significant impact on family-based immigration.

Reasons behind the visa freeze

The US State Department said the suspension aims to prevent the entry of foreign nationals likely to require government welfare and public benefits. “The Trump administration is bringing an end to the abuse of America’s immigration system by those who would extract wealth from the American people,” said State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott.

While the administration cites the risk of immigrants draining government resources, studies by the Cato Institute and other research groups suggest immigrants generally use fewer benefits than US-born citizens.

Who will not be affected

Temporary visas for tourists, business travelers, and sports fans remain unaffected. Exceptions are also allowed for individuals with dual nationality, a valid passport from a country not on the list, or travel serving an “America First” national interest. Approved visas that have not yet been printed must be refused according to the State Department.

Countries affected

The visa freeze covers nations across Africa, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe. Some of the most affected countries include Pakistan, Bangladesh, Somalia, Russia, Iran, Afghanistan, Brazil, Nigeria, and Thailand.

Other countries on the full list include Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahamas, Barbados, Belarus, Belize, Bhutan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Myanmar, Cambodia, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cuba, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Dominica, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Fiji, The Gambia, Georgia, Ghana, Grenada, Guatemala, Guinea, Haiti, Iraq, Jamaica, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, North Macedonia, Moldova, Mongolia, Montenegro, Morocco, Nepal, Nicaragua, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, St Kitts and Nevis, St Lucia, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, and Yemen.

Trump administration immigration record

The Trump administration has already imposed stricter vetting procedures over the past year, revoking over 100,000 visas and deporting more than 605,000 people, with 2.5 million others leaving voluntarily. Critics highlight that the policy disproportionately affects immigrants from non-European countries.

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Anything less than US control of Greenland unacceptable, says Trump

Donald Trump has said American control of Greenland is vital for national security and missile defence, reigniting debate over the Arctic island’s strategic importance.

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US president Donald Trump has said that American control over Greenland is essential for the United States’ national security, describing it as “vital” for a planned air and missile defence system known as the Golden Dome.

In a social media post on Wednesday, Trump claimed the United States “needs Greenland for the purpose of National Security” and asserted that the Arctic island plays a key role in the proposed defence architecture. He further said that NATO would become “far more formidable and effective” if Greenland were under US control, adding that “anything less than that is unacceptable.”

Comments ahead of US-Denmark talks

Trump’s remarks came just hours before senior Danish and Greenlandic officials were scheduled to hold talks at the White House with US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The discussions are focused on Greenland and broader security issues in the Arctic region.

Responding to US concerns, Denmark’s defence minister Troels Lund Poulsen said the country was increasing its military presence in Greenland. He also noted that Copenhagen was in discussions with allies regarding a stronger NATO footprint in the Arctic.

NATO role and strategic concerns

Trump said NATO “should be leading the way” in building the proposed multi-layer missile defence system. He warned that if the alliance did not act, rival powers could step in, stating that Russia or China might otherwise take the lead.

The US president has repeatedly spoken about taking control of Greenland, a strategically located and sparsely populated island that is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark. His renewed comments underline continued US interest in the Arctic’s strategic importance amid rising global security competition.

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Iran set to execute anti-Khamenei protester as Trump warns of strong US action

Iran is preparing to execute a protester linked to anti-regime demonstrations as US President Donald Trump warns of strong action amid a deadly crackdown.

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Iran is reportedly preparing to execute an anti-government protester on Wednesday, triggering sharp warnings from US President Donald Trump, who said Washington would take “very strong action” if the hanging goes ahead. The development comes amid a sweeping crackdown on nationwide protests that rights groups say has killed more than 2,000 people.

According to human rights groups, 26-year-old Erfan Soltani, arrested last week during protests in Karaj near Tehran, has been sentenced to death and faces execution without a proper trial. Iranian authorities have not publicly detailed the charges or judicial process in his case.

Trump urges Iranians to keep protesting

Trump has publicly encouraged Iranians to continue protesting, saying “help is on its way”, while warning Tehran against executing demonstrators. Speaking to media, the US president said the United States would respond forcefully if Iran began hanging protesters arrested during the unrest.

Earlier, Trump posted messages urging people in Iran to continue demonstrations and said he had cancelled meetings with Iranian officials until the killing of protesters stops. He did not specify what assistance the US might provide or which meetings had been cancelled.

Iranian prosecutors have reportedly threatened capital punishment under charges of “moharebeh”, or waging war against God, for some detainees linked to the protests.

Rising death toll and reports from morgues

Rights groups say the crackdown has been one of the deadliest in recent years. According to activist organisations, the death toll has crossed 2,500, including civilians and members of the security forces. Iranian officials, however, have blamed what they described as “terrorists” for the deaths and have not provided a clear breakdown.

Videos circulating on social media show bodies lined up at the Kahrizak mortuary near Tehran, wrapped in black bags, as families search for missing relatives. Authorities have declared national mourning for security personnel killed during the unrest and announced mass funeral ceremonies in the capital.

Internet blackout and Starlink access

Iran has imposed a widespread internet blackout, now extending beyond five days, limiting communication and information flow. Amid the restrictions, SpaceX has reportedly waived subscription fees for its Starlink satellite service in Iran, allowing users with receivers to access the internet without payment, according to groups working to restore connectivity.

Some international phone links were partially restored, but reports indicate services remain unstable and limited.

Political tensions and international reaction

Iranian leaders have insisted that control has been restored following days of protests described as one of the biggest challenges to the clerical leadership since the 1979 revolution. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has hailed pro-government rallies as evidence that the protest movement has failed.

Senior Iranian officials have accused Trump and Israeli leadership of responsibility for violence in Iran. Meanwhile, Western leaders have condemned the use of force against protesters, with some warning that sustained repression could further destabilise the country.

Analysts note that while the protests represent a serious challenge to Iran’s leadership, the government retains powerful security and enforcement mechanisms, making the outcome uncertain.

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