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Trump’s pull out of Iran N-deal may escalate oil prices

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Trump’s pull out of Iran N-deal may escalate oil prices

India will also be affected by oil price rise

The possibilities of US President Donald Trump’s pull out from Iran nuclear deal on May 12 has been influencing the crude oil market. The Brent Crude, the global benchmark, briefly soared above $75 per barrel on Monday after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that Iran was lying on its implementation of JCPOA conditions.

According to CNN, bringing back sanctions on Iran could knock out as much as 1 million barrels per day of crude supply, dealing a “blow to increasingly fragile energy markets”.

Micheal Wittner, the global head of oil research at Societe Generals, a French multinational banking and financial services, said, “There will be significant disruption. The market is assuming that oil sanctions will snap back onto Iran”.

Read More: Iran warns US not to withdraw from n-deal or face consequences

Meanwhile, Tehran based Press TV reports that the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) exported 2.8 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate to Asian and European countries in April, a record since the lifting of sanctions in early 2016.

China and India are the biggest buyers taking in 1.4 million bpd of Iran’s oil. South Korea and Japan are Iran’s other key customers in Asia where 60 percent of Iranian oil is exported.

The report further says that Europe receives almost all the other 40 percent of oil shipments from Iran.The major buyers include: France’s Total, Anglo-Dutch Shell, Italy’s Saras, Greek Hellenic Petroleum as well as Polish and Turkish companies.

Read More: Saudi Prince ask US to rethink on Iran-N deal

After January 2016, when US-led sanctions were lifted along with implementation of Iran nuclear deal known as JCPOA, Iran re-emerged as a major oil exporter. However, Trump’s threats to re-impose the US sanctions this month have sent jitters across the global oil market.

Meanwhile Reuters quoted Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia-Pacific at futures brokerage OANDA in Singapore, saying, “As May 12 Iran nuclear deadline nears, geopolitical developments will continue to drive oil market sentiments”.

On Monday, US President Donald Trump said that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s revelations about Iran lying on its nuclear project show he’s “100% right” about the Iranian nuclear agreement. He was quoted saying, “We’ll see what happens. I’m not telling you what I’m doing, but a lot of people think they know.”

Stephen Bennock, the oil analyst at Singapore based brokerage firm PVM Oil Associates, wrote to his clients late last week, “The Iranian nuclear deal is dead in the water and a Trump torpedo is fast approaching.”

Under the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear activities, in exchange of lifting sanctions against the country. Iran had quickly boosted its oil production by about 1 million barrels per day after the implementation of the deal in January 2016.

According to FEG estimates, if the sanctions are restored, Iran’s output could be slashed by 250,000 to 50,000 barrels per day by the end of 2018. This figure could rise to 500,000 to 1 million per day through 2019.

Read More: EU: US to lose trust if Washington withdraws from Iran N-deal

FGE has also warned that if no steps are taken to void left by Iran, the gap between supply and demand could shrink to the tightest level since 2013, when oil prices were above $ 100 a barrel.

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Amid India-Canada diplomatic tensions, Justin Trudeau shares video of his Diwali celebrations

This comes a day after India expressed its concern over the reports of cancelled Diwali celebrations in Canada.

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Amid the ongoing diplomatic tensions between Canada and India over the killing of Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Sunday shared a video of his Diwali celebration on social media platform X.

Sharing a 44-second video of his Diwali celebrations on social media, the Canadian Prime Minister wrote, “Happy Diwali! So many special moments shared celebrating with the community this week.”

This comes a day after India expressed its concern over the reports of cancelled Diwali celebrations in Canada.

The Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal on Saturday, while addressing the media over Canada’s serious allegation against Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s involvement in the killing of Khalistani terrorist Nijjar, said it was unfortunate that the prevailing atmosphere in Canada has reached high levels of intolerance and extremism.

In the video, Prime Minister Trudeau showed off some colorful religious threads on his wrists, explaining that he received them during visits to three Hindu temples in Canada recently. He called them symbols of “good luck” and “protection,” adding with a smile, “I’m not taking them off until they fall off”.

Trudeau was also seen interacting warmly with the community, celebrating the festival, and enjoying delicious Indian sweets like jalebis, which he jokingly said he would “save for the team.”

On November 1, Trudeau posted on X, “Happy Diwali! Today, Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist, and Jain families will celebrate the triumph of light over darkness with festivities, candles, diyas, and fireworks. Wishing you all joy and prosperity during this special time.”

Addressing a press conference in Delhi, Jaiswal said India condemns the recent allegations made by the Canadian government against Shah that he was purportedly involved in the killing of Nijjar and called it “absurd and baseless”.

Jaiswal also said that India had summoned the Canadian High Commissioner on Friday to protest in the strongest terms for the references made to the Union Home Minister of India before the Committee by Canada’s Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister David Morrison.

On Tuesday, Morrison claimed that Shah orchestrated a campaign of violence, intimidation, and intelligence-gathering aimed at Sikh separatists on Canadian soil. He informed members of Canada’s national security committee in Parliament that he had confirmed Shah’s name to The Washington Post, which was the first to report the allegations. However, Morrison did not provide details on how Canada became aware of Shah’s alleged involvement.

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India, China complete disengagement in Depsang, Demchok at LAC after 4 years standoff

The Indian Army said that coordinated patrolling will start soon by both sides, and the ground commanders will continue to hold talks.

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India, China complete disengagement in Depsang, Demchok at LAC after 4 years standoff

In a significant development, India and China have completed the disengagement exercise in the Depsang and Demchok friction points at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh. The troops of both the countries are now verifying the vacation of positions and removal of infrastructure.

Reportedly, the Indian Army said that coordinated patrolling will start soon by both sides, and the ground commanders will continue to hold talks. The two sides will exchange sweets for Diwali tomorrow.

Earlier, Foreign secretary Vikram Misri announced that New Delhi and Beijing reached an agreement to disengage in the remaining friction points at LAC in eastern Ladakh. After the agreement, the two countries began troops disengagement at the two friction points at Demchok and Depsang plains on October 23.

India-China relations worsened because of the Chinese troops’ aggression along the Line of Actual Control, the de facto border, in April 2020. It further deteriorated on June 15, 2020, after 20 Indian soldiers died in the line of duty thwarting the Chinese offensive in the Galwan Valley. New Delhi had said India’s bilateral relations with China will normalise only after the situation at the LAC returns to what it was before May 2020.

Reports said that the Indian Army and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have pulled back their forward-deployed troops and equipment from the two flashpoints, and have also dismantled temporary structures that had been built during the four-year-long standoff.

The Indian soldiers will resume their patrolling in areas that had been cut off because of the PLA’s presence. Nonetheless, the disengagement in Depsang and Demchok will not lead to the creation of buffer zones.

Both the countries had disengaged from Galwan Valley, Pangong Tso, Gogra (PP-17A) and Hot Springs (PP-15) areas and created buffer zones. Speaking to a newspaper publication, Lieutenant General Vinod Bhatia (retd), a former director general of military operations said that the disengagement at Depsang and Demchok will facilitate patrolling by both sides in a coordinated manner, and in the agreed upon frequency and strength of the patrolling parties.

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Iran says 2 soldiers killed in Israeli air strikes

Emphasising Iran’s right to self-defense under the UN Charter, the Iranian Foreign Ministry highlighted its obligation to counter foreign aggression.

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The Iranian Army said on Saturday that two of its soldiers were killed in Israeli air strikes that targeted military bases.

Iran stated that its air defenses effectively countered the attack, resulting in the unfortunate deaths of two soldiers and some areas suffering limited damage.

The Israeli military conducted strikes on Iranian military sites after 2 am on Saturday, responding to what they cited as ongoing attacks by Iran and its allies in the region.

Following the strikes, the Israeli military announced they had successfully completed the mission and achieved their objectives.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed the precise targeting of military sites in Iran to neutralize immediate threats to Israel.

“I can now confirm that we have concluded the Israeli response to Iran’s attacks against Israel. We conducted targeted and precise strikes on military targets in Iran — thwarting immediate threats to the State of Israel,” the Israel Defence Force posted on X.

Iran’s air defense headquarters acknowledged the hits on bases in Ilam, Khuzestan, and Tehran but asserted that these attacks were effectively repelled, with investigations ongoing to assess damages. Moreover, Iran indicated its readiness to retaliate against any Israeli aggression, stating that Israel would face proportional consequences for its actions.

Iran expressed its intentions to respond to the Israeli attacks on its military bases, condemning the actions as a violation of international law and the UN Charter’s principles on the use of force.

Emphasising Iran’s right to self-defense under the UN Charter, the Iranian Foreign Ministry highlighted its obligation to counter foreign aggression.

Pakistan strongly condemned Israel’s strikes on Iran, attributing the escalation to Israel and urging the UN Security Council to intervene for peace and security.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasised that Iran should refrain from retaliating against Israel, advocating for restraint on all sides to prevent further escalation.

“I am clear that Israel has the right to defend itself against Iranian aggression. I’m equally clear that we must avoid further regional escalation and urge all sides to restrain. Iran should not respond,” the PM said at a Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting.

The United States advised Iran to halt its attacks on Israel to cease the ongoing violence and break the cycle of conflict, underlining the importance of de-escalation.

“We urge Iran to cease its attacks on Israel so that this cycle of fighting can end without further escalation,” U.S. National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett told reporters.

President Joe Biden was briefed on the Israeli operation throughout its development and execution by his National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan.

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