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Trump’s pull out of Iran N-deal may escalate oil prices

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Trump’s pull out of Iran N-deal may escalate oil prices

India will also be affected by oil price rise

The possibilities of US President Donald Trump’s pull out from Iran nuclear deal on May 12 has been influencing the crude oil market. The Brent Crude, the global benchmark, briefly soared above $75 per barrel on Monday after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that Iran was lying on its implementation of JCPOA conditions.

According to CNN, bringing back sanctions on Iran could knock out as much as 1 million barrels per day of crude supply, dealing a “blow to increasingly fragile energy markets”.

Micheal Wittner, the global head of oil research at Societe Generals, a French multinational banking and financial services, said, “There will be significant disruption. The market is assuming that oil sanctions will snap back onto Iran”.

Read More: Iran warns US not to withdraw from n-deal or face consequences

Meanwhile, Tehran based Press TV reports that the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) exported 2.8 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate to Asian and European countries in April, a record since the lifting of sanctions in early 2016.

China and India are the biggest buyers taking in 1.4 million bpd of Iran’s oil. South Korea and Japan are Iran’s other key customers in Asia where 60 percent of Iranian oil is exported.

The report further says that Europe receives almost all the other 40 percent of oil shipments from Iran.The major buyers include: France’s Total, Anglo-Dutch Shell, Italy’s Saras, Greek Hellenic Petroleum as well as Polish and Turkish companies.

Read More: Saudi Prince ask US to rethink on Iran-N deal

After January 2016, when US-led sanctions were lifted along with implementation of Iran nuclear deal known as JCPOA, Iran re-emerged as a major oil exporter. However, Trump’s threats to re-impose the US sanctions this month have sent jitters across the global oil market.

Meanwhile Reuters quoted Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia-Pacific at futures brokerage OANDA in Singapore, saying, “As May 12 Iran nuclear deadline nears, geopolitical developments will continue to drive oil market sentiments”.

On Monday, US President Donald Trump said that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s revelations about Iran lying on its nuclear project show he’s “100% right” about the Iranian nuclear agreement. He was quoted saying, “We’ll see what happens. I’m not telling you what I’m doing, but a lot of people think they know.”

Stephen Bennock, the oil analyst at Singapore based brokerage firm PVM Oil Associates, wrote to his clients late last week, “The Iranian nuclear deal is dead in the water and a Trump torpedo is fast approaching.”

Under the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear activities, in exchange of lifting sanctions against the country. Iran had quickly boosted its oil production by about 1 million barrels per day after the implementation of the deal in January 2016.

According to FEG estimates, if the sanctions are restored, Iran’s output could be slashed by 250,000 to 50,000 barrels per day by the end of 2018. This figure could rise to 500,000 to 1 million per day through 2019.

Read More: EU: US to lose trust if Washington withdraws from Iran N-deal

FGE has also warned that if no steps are taken to void left by Iran, the gap between supply and demand could shrink to the tightest level since 2013, when oil prices were above $ 100 a barrel.

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Mark Carney’s win sparks hope for India-Canada relations reset

Mark Carney’s rise as Canada’s Prime Minister brings a renewed focus on repairing ties with India, as both countries seek cooperation in trade, education, and diplomacy.

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Mark Carney’s ascension to the role of Canada’s Prime Minister has brought renewed optimism for a diplomatic thaw between New Delhi and Ottawa, a relationship that faced serious setbacks under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Carney, a former central banker and political novice, made it clear during his campaign that rebuilding bilateral ties with India would be among his foreign policy priorities.

Carney signals intent to revive ties

In his pre-election statements, Carney emphasised Canada’s need to diversify trade partnerships with nations that share democratic values—explicitly naming India. He said, “There are opportunities to rebuild the relationship with India. If I am Prime Minister, I look forward to the opportunity to build that.”

This approach marks a significant departure from the Trudeau administration’s strained relations with India, especially following the high-profile controversy in 2023 involving the killing of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. The diplomatic crisis escalated with the expulsion of six Indian diplomats and reciprocal steps from India, effectively freezing high-level exchanges and trade talks.

The road to reconciliation

Under Trudeau, India frequently accused Canada of harbouring extremist elements within its Sikh diaspora. The Indian government viewed this as a threat to its sovereignty, particularly amid rising incidents of pro-Khalistan demonstrations abroad.

Mark Carney, however, has taken a more pragmatic view, underlining the importance of restoring diplomatic balance and mutual respect. His vision of Canadian sovereignty also extends to redefining international alliances, with a push toward reducing dependency on its largest neighbour—the United States—and strengthening partnerships like the one with India.

Economic and educational prospects

The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between the two nations, stalled due to the diplomatic fallout, may see a revival under Carney’s leadership. In 2023, services trade between India and Canada was valued at CAD 13.49 billion. Both countries had been exploring collaboration in emerging sectors like AI, green energy, and education.

India continues to be one of the largest contributors to Canada’s immigrant population, with nearly 2.8 million people of Indian origin living in the country. Carney is likely to continue the liberal immigration policies, particularly benefiting Indian students and professionals. Over 427,000 Indian students currently study in Canada, playing a crucial role in its economy and labour force.

A cautious but hopeful turn

Carney’s victory offers both countries a diplomatic opportunity to reset a troubled chapter. With mutual interests in economic growth, technological advancement, and geopolitical balance, the groundwork is being laid for a more collaborative future.

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Several killed after car drives into street festival in Canada’s Vancouver

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A horrific incident unfolded at the Lapu Lapu ’25 Block Party in Vancouver, Canada, on Saturday, April 26, when a black SUV plowed into a crowd, leaving multiple people dead and several others injured, according to the Vancouver Police Department (VPD). The attack occurred just after 8 p.m. local time at the intersection of East 41st Avenue and Fraser Street, where hundreds had gathered to celebrate Filipino culture and honor Datu Lapu-Lapu, the Philippines’ first national hero, who famously defeated Spanish explorer Ferdinand Magellan in the 1521 Battle of Mactan.

The VPD confirmed the driver, a 30-year-old Vancouver man, was taken into custody at the scene, though the exact number of casualties remains undisclosed as emergency services continue to respond. “A number of people have been killed and multiple others are injured,” the VPD stated on X, adding, “We will provide more information as the investigation unfolds.” Social media footage captured the chaotic aftermath, showing a black SUV with a crumpled hood and deployed airbags, surrounded by motionless victims and frantic bystanders. Some videos depicted first responders and civilians tending to the injured, while others showed bloodied individuals lying on the street, underscoring the scale of the tragedy.

Vancouver Mayor Ken Sim expressed profound grief, calling the incident “horrific.” “We are shocked and saddened by what happened at the Lapu Lapu Day event. Police have confirmed multiple fatalities and injuries, and our thoughts are with Vancouver’s Filipino community during this devastating time,” Sim said in a statement. New Democratic Party MP Don Davies, describing the event as a “horrendous attack,” took to X to offer prayers for the victims and their families, reflecting the community’s anguish.

The Lapu Lapu Day Block Party, in its second year, is a vibrant celebration of Filipino heritage, recognized by British Columbia since 2023 as a day to honor Lapu-Lapu’s legacy of resistance against colonial oppression. The festival, featuring food trucks, performers, and cultural displays, drew a large crowd to Vancouver’s Sunset neighborhood, making the sudden violence all the more shocking.

As the investigation continues, authorities have not disclosed a motive or confirmed whether the act was intentional. The VPD’s major crime unit is leading the probe, and police are urging witnesses to come forward with information. The incident has cast a pall over Vancouver, prompting an outpouring of condolences from leaders like Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and British Columbia Premier David Eby, who vowed support for the affected community. For now, the Filipino community and the city at large mourn, grappling with the senseless loss at what was meant to be a joyous celebration.

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At least 115 injured after explosion at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port

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A massive explosion rocked the Rajaei port near Bandar Abbas in southern Iran on Saturday, April 26, injuring 406 people, according to the state-run IRNA news agency. The agency had earlier reported 281 injuries, citing Mojtaba Khaledi, spokesperson for Iran’s National Emergency Organization, before the toll surged as more victims were identified.

The blast occurred at the Rajaei port, a critical hub for container shipments handling approximately 80 million tons of goods annually. Videos circulating on social media captured thick black smoke rising from the site, while others showed shattered windows in buildings several kilometers away, underscoring the explosion’s intensity.

Authorities have yet to disclose the cause of the blast. While Iran frequently experiences industrial accidents, particularly at its aging oil facilities strained by international sanctions, state television explicitly ruled out any involvement of energy infrastructure in this incident. Mehrdad Hasanzadeh, a provincial disaster management official, told state TV that first responders were working to access the affected area, while efforts were underway to evacuate the site. He noted that the explosion originated from containers at the port but provided no further details. State TV also reported a building collapse triggered by the blast, though specifics remain scarce.

Located 1,050 kilometers southeast of Tehran on the Strait of Hormuz—a vital chokepoint for 20% of global oil trade—the Rajaei port’s strategic importance amplifies concerns about the incident. The explosion coincided with ongoing diplomatic talks in Oman between Iran and the United States, marking their third round of negotiations over Tehran’s accelerating nuclear program, adding a layer of complexity to the unfolding situation.

As rescue operations continue, the rising injury toll and lack of clarity about the blast’s cause have heightened anxiety in Iran, with authorities under pressure to provide answers and ensure the safety of those affected. The incident underscores the challenges faced by Iran’s critical infrastructure and the broader implications for regional stability amid delicate international discussions.

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