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Is India’s optimism over Iran’s Chabahar port grossly misplaced?

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Chabahar-challenge

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]By Seema Guha

US President Donald Trump’s hardline strategy against Iran could severely impact India’s hopes of enhancing trade and commerce through the Chabahar port

The first shipment of wheat from India was sent last week to the Iran’s Chabahar port and then onwards by rail and road to Afghanistan. This marks New Delhi’s attempt to avoid Pakistan, which does not allow Indian goods to transit its territory.

The fact that the long delayed project is at last taking shape, has led to general euphoria on all sides and a somewhat misplaced expectation of steadily increasing the volumes on this route. The grain sent out to Afghanistan from a port in Gujarat was a gift from the people of India to the citizens of Afghanistan.

“The shipment of wheat is a landmark moment as it will pave the way for operationalisation of the Chabahar port as an alternative, reliable and robust connectivity for Afghanistan. It will open up new opportunities for trade and transit from and to Afghanistan and enhance trade and commerce between the three countries (India, Iran and Afghanistan) and the wider region,” the statement released by the ministry of external affairs noted. But this is an unrealistic and overtly optimistic assumption.

With US President Donald Trump ready to tear up the landmark nuclear agreement signed in 2015, chances of fresh sanctions being slapped on Iran by the US Congress are very high. Once this happens it will be difficult for both India and Afghanistan not to heed US pressure.

Though Delhi as a rule does not pay heed to sanctions, unless they are mandated by the UN Security Council, the US has found a way to deal with this. From past experience it has learnt how best to target companies doing business with Iran. To make the sanctions effective, the US had earlier decreed that any company doing business with Iran cannot operate in the US. It cannot also have any dealings with American financial institutions. With America still the world’s largest economy and its financial clout spread across the world, it is difficult for any company to continue dealing with Iran. No company or government is in a position to turn its back on the US, unless there are political motivations.

For India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, bent to take relations with the US to a new unprecedented height, the question of not supporting US will not arise. The stakes are too high, more so because Washington is now promising to deliver high-tech defence technology so long denied to India.

One of Donald Trump’s election promises was to walk out of the Obama sponsored Iran nuclear deal. He has already taken the first step in this direction, by refusing to certify Iran’s compliance to the agreement. Though the International Atomic Energy Agency, which is on the ground in Iran, inspecting every aspect of the country’s nuclear program, had certified three times that Tehran has stuck to the agreement, Trump refused to certify it. Now he has asked the US Congress to come up with fresh ideas to make the deal much more stringent and slap nuclear sanctions against Iran.

Despite the fact that other countries, who were part of the agreement like France, Germany, UK, Russia, China as well as the EU are lobbying hard to keep the agreement intact, the US remains adamant. President Trump has also warned that if lawmakers refuse to act, he has the executive powers to enforce his will. So despite the fact that European countries, China and Russia are all opposed to Trump’s move, he can well wreck the deal and impose fresh sanctions on Iran.

This is why despite India’s optimism, using Chabahar for growing trade with Afghanistan seems doomed to fail. This, so long as Donald Trump continues to be adamant. Chances of Trump changing his views are remote. More so, because he is pleasing Saudi Arabia, UAE and other Sunni powers worried about Iran assuming its rightful place in the world.

The idea of using the Iranian port for trade with Afghanistan took shape in 2003, during Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s term as prime minister. Thanks to crippling sanctions slapped by the US on trading with Iran, the project never had a chance to take off. When sanctions were lifted after the nuclear agreement another bilateral agreement was signed between India and Iran for the development of both the port and railway track to transport the goods to Afghanistan.

India has already constructed a road from Delaram in Afghanistan to Zaranj at the Iran-Afghanistan border at the cost of $134 million. This road would help to carry goods by road from the Iranian border to different destinations in Afghanistan.

Developing an alternative trade route as not to be held hostage by Pakistan was a good idea. But the US-Iran relations have hit this project hard. Earlier it was delayed because of sanctions and now it is unlikely to take off as relations between the US and Iran deteriorate.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

2024 Lok Sabha Elections

PM Modi calls for a strong government, says even enemies think 100 times before doing anything

PM Modi pointed out that Pakistan had been troubling India for 70 years and it had bombs in its hands. But today the situation has changed and it has begging bowl in its hands. He said when there is a strong government, enemies tremble

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PM Modi calls for a strong government, says even enemies think 100 times before doing anything

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed an election rally in Haryana’s Ambala on Saturday and said India’s enemies think 100 times before doing anything against the country when there is a strong government at the Centre. Haryana, which has a total of 10 Lok Sabha seats, will vote in the 6th phase on May 25. In 2019 elections BJP claimed victory in all 10 seats.

PM Modi pointed out that Pakistan had been troubling India for 70 years and it had bombs in its hands. But today the situation has changed and it has begging bowl in its hands. He said when there is a strong government, enemies tremble. Addressing the election rally at Ambala the prime minister asked if a weak government could have changed the situation in Jammu & Kashmir? He recalled the times when there was a Congress government and brave mothers of Haryana used to be worried day and night. He said it has been 10 years now and all of that has stopped.

PM Modi recounted BJP government’s achievements and said they had demolished the wall of Article 370 and Kashmir started moving on the path of development. The prime minister said that a total of 17 days remain to go for 4th June.  He further added that until now in 4 phases of elections, Congress and the INDI Alliance, chaaron khaane chitt ho chuke hain. He said whatever tactics the INDI Alliance used for the country have all been beaten by the public itself.

Addressing the election rally PM Modi said Haryana is a state which has patriotism in its veins and knows anti-national forces very well. The prime minister guaranteed to the people that their dreams are his resolution. PM Modi said there are 4 pillars of Viksit Bharat – poor, youth, women and farmers and he wants to strengthen all these pillars in such a way that the nation becomes strong.

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2024 Lok Sabha Elections

Mallikarjun Kharge accuses PM Modi of inciting people and dividing society through his election speeches

Kharge said no prime minister before Modi has ever indulged in inciting people like he has been doing. He said the prime minister speaks about democracy repeatedly but does not adhere to the tenets of democracy.

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Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge on Saturday attacked Prime Minister Narendra Modi for inciting people and dividing society through his election speeches. Kharge was addressing a press conference of the INDIA bloc, where Shiv Sena (UBT) president, Uddhav Thackeray NCP (SP) chief Sharad Pawar and other leaders were present.

Kharge said no prime minister before Modi has ever indulged in inciting people like he has been doing. He said the prime minister speaks about democracy repeatedly but does not adhere to the tenets of democracy. Responding to PM Modi’s statement that the Congress will bulldoze the Ram mandir in Ayodhya and also restore Article 370 if the INDIA bloc is voted to power Kharge said, they have never used a bulldozer on anyone. The Congress president said PM Modi has the habit of lying and inciting people about things which Congress will never do or the things that are impossible to be implemented.

Kharge further added that he is not answerable to Modi and the Congress will implement what they have promised in their election manifesto. He accused PM Modi of creating divisions wherever he went he tries to create division, speaks of dividing society. Kharge further added that PM Modi had described the Congress manifesto as Muslim League manifesto, but now he is calling it as a Maoist manifesto.

The Congress President assured that reservation has been enshrined in the Constitution which will continue and nobody can touch it. Speaking at the press conference Thackeray said, Achche din are coming from June 4 (when Lok Sabha election results will be declared) when INDIA bloc-led government will come to power at the centre. Thackeray pointed out PM Modi calls Shiv Sena (UBT) as the nakli (fake) Shiv Sena, and there is a possibility that tomorrow he may call RSS as nakli Sangh.  

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Delhi Police arrest Bibhav Kumar for allegedly assaulting AAP MP Swati Maliwal

In her complaint, Swati Maliwal accused Arvind Kejriwal’s personal assistant of repeatedly slapping her and kicking her in the stomach and pelvic area when she went to the Delhi Chief Minister’s residence on May 13.

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The Delhi Police on Saturday arrested Bibhav Kumar, aide and former personal secretary of Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal in connection with the alleged assault of AAP MP Swati Maliwal. The development comes 2 days after Delhi Police registered a case against Kumar following a complaint by Maliwal. In her complaint, Maliwal accused Arvind Kejriwal’s personal assistant of repeatedly slapping her and kicking her in the stomach and pelvic area when she went to the Delhi Chief Minister’s residence on May 13.

On Saturday, AAP minister Atishi claimed the BJP made Swati Maliwal file the FIR using an old ACB case as leverage. She said Anti Corruption Bureau of the BJP has filed a case against Swati Maliwal regarding the illegal recruitment of contractual employees in Delhi Commission for Women. A chargesheet has been filed and the time of conviction is coming and the AAP party said that it believes that Swati Maliwal is being included in the conspiracy by using this case. Atishi said how the entire machinery of BJP, from Delhi Police to the MHA is working, was seen yesterday in Tis Hazari Court.

On Friday, the Delhi Police took Swati Maliwal to the Delhi chief minister’s residence to recreate the crime scene. Her statement was recorded before a magistrate at the Tis Hazari court. A counter-complaint has been filed by Bibhav Kumar with the Civil Lines police station in which he alleged that Maliwal had forcefully and unauthorised entered the Delhi CM’s residence.

 He also claimed that the former Delhi Commission for Women chairperson tried to create a ruckus and assault him. Kejriwal’s aide also claimed that the Rajya Sabha MP intended to harm the AAP chief and he strongly objected. Bibhav Kumar said a copy of the FIR has been sent to all the media houses by the BJP but BJP’s police are saying that they cannot give it to the accused.

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