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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Global temperatures are likely to rise by 4C, drowning islands, worsening water scarcity and creating prolonged heat waves

The gloomier the prediction, the more realistic it is – that is the conclusion of a new study on climate change models to assess future warming of the planet.

The findings, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, suggest that the target to keep global temperatures from rising by two degrees Celsius (over pre-industrial era, before 1850 CE), reiterated in Paris Climate Agreement, may be too optimistic and ambitious as it relies on projections that underestimate how much the planet will warm and, by extension, underestimate the cuts in greenhouse gas emissions needed to stave off catastrophic impacts of climate change.

The study, by Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, California, examined climate change simulations, or “models,” that researchers use to project the future of the planet based on the physical equations that govern the behaviour of the atmosphere and oceans.

Co-author of the study Patrick Brown said, “We find that the models that do the best at simulating the recent past project more warming.”

“Our study indicates that if emissions follow a commonly used business-as-usual scenario, there is a 93 per cent chance that global warming will exceed 4C by the end of this century,” said Dr Ken Caldeira, who co-authored the new study.

This is a marked increase in probability of such warming over past estimates, which placed it at 62 per cent.

A warming of 4C would have severe impacts, drowning small islands, eliminating coral reefs, exacerbating water scarcity, loss of biodiversity and creating prolonged heat waves around the world, scientists say.

The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) puts the top range for warming between 3.2C to 5.9C by 2100, giving equal weightage to about three dozen models used by researchers to understand global warming and its impacts.

Climate models are tools for scientists attempting to understand the impacts of greenhouse-gas emissions. They are constructed using fundamental knowledge of physics and the world’s climate. But, given the complexity of the climate system, there is disagreement about how best to model key aspects of it and scientists have produced dozens of climate models predicting a range of different global warming outcomes resulting from greenhouse-gas emissions.

Climate change deniers and opponents of carbon regulation have used these differences in projections to label the models unreliable, inaccurate or just plain wrong.

Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira looked for a way to narrow the uncertainty by determining which models were better. To do this, they looked at the models that were best at simulating climate patterns in the recent past – that is, they saw how the models predicted recent climate conditions and compared that to what actually happened.

“It makes sense that the models that do the best job at simulating today’s observations might be the models with the most reliable predictions,” said Dr Caldeira.

“The IPCC uses a model democracy—one model, one vote—and that’s what they’re saying is the range,” Brown explained. “We’re saying we can do one better. We can try to discriminate between well- and poor-performing models. We’re narrowing the range of uncertainty.”

“… if you take the best models, those are the ones projecting the most warming in the future,” he said.

In a worst-case scenario, the study finds that global temperatures could rise 15 percent more than projected by the IPCC – 0.5C more in the 3.2C-5.9C range – by the end of this century.

The research by Dr Brown and Dr Caldeira focuses specifically on models of energy flow from Earth to space, of the balance of incoming and outgoing radiation that ultimately determines the Earth’s temperature, as measured by satellites. They found the models that do the best job capturing the Earth’s actual “energy imbalance,” as the authors put it, are also the ones that simulate more warming in the planet’s future.

They suggest that the amount of sunlight reflected away from the planet by clouds will decrease as the world gets warmer, increasing the magnitude of climate change.

While the findings were appreciated by scientists, they also raised a point of caution. “This is only one line of evidence. Other lines of evidence based on the historically observed warming suggest the simulations with slightly cooler projections may fit best. We need to consider all the lines of evidence before we jump to conclusions,” Professor Piers Forster, a climate-change specialist at the University of Leeds who was not involved in the study told ‘Independent’.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Amid India-Canada diplomatic tensions, Justin Trudeau shares video of his Diwali celebrations

This comes a day after India expressed its concern over the reports of cancelled Diwali celebrations in Canada.

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Amid the ongoing diplomatic tensions between Canada and India over the killing of Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Sunday shared a video of his Diwali celebration on social media platform X.

Sharing a 44-second video of his Diwali celebrations on social media, the Canadian Prime Minister wrote, “Happy Diwali! So many special moments shared celebrating with the community this week.”

This comes a day after India expressed its concern over the reports of cancelled Diwali celebrations in Canada.

The Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal on Saturday, while addressing the media over Canada’s serious allegation against Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s involvement in the killing of Khalistani terrorist Nijjar, said it was unfortunate that the prevailing atmosphere in Canada has reached high levels of intolerance and extremism.

In the video, Prime Minister Trudeau showed off some colorful religious threads on his wrists, explaining that he received them during visits to three Hindu temples in Canada recently. He called them symbols of “good luck” and “protection,” adding with a smile, “I’m not taking them off until they fall off”.

Trudeau was also seen interacting warmly with the community, celebrating the festival, and enjoying delicious Indian sweets like jalebis, which he jokingly said he would “save for the team.”

On November 1, Trudeau posted on X, “Happy Diwali! Today, Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist, and Jain families will celebrate the triumph of light over darkness with festivities, candles, diyas, and fireworks. Wishing you all joy and prosperity during this special time.”

Addressing a press conference in Delhi, Jaiswal said India condemns the recent allegations made by the Canadian government against Shah that he was purportedly involved in the killing of Nijjar and called it “absurd and baseless”.

Jaiswal also said that India had summoned the Canadian High Commissioner on Friday to protest in the strongest terms for the references made to the Union Home Minister of India before the Committee by Canada’s Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister David Morrison.

On Tuesday, Morrison claimed that Shah orchestrated a campaign of violence, intimidation, and intelligence-gathering aimed at Sikh separatists on Canadian soil. He informed members of Canada’s national security committee in Parliament that he had confirmed Shah’s name to The Washington Post, which was the first to report the allegations. However, Morrison did not provide details on how Canada became aware of Shah’s alleged involvement.

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India, China complete disengagement in Depsang, Demchok at LAC after 4 years standoff

The Indian Army said that coordinated patrolling will start soon by both sides, and the ground commanders will continue to hold talks.

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India, China complete disengagement in Depsang, Demchok at LAC after 4 years standoff

In a significant development, India and China have completed the disengagement exercise in the Depsang and Demchok friction points at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh. The troops of both the countries are now verifying the vacation of positions and removal of infrastructure.

Reportedly, the Indian Army said that coordinated patrolling will start soon by both sides, and the ground commanders will continue to hold talks. The two sides will exchange sweets for Diwali tomorrow.

Earlier, Foreign secretary Vikram Misri announced that New Delhi and Beijing reached an agreement to disengage in the remaining friction points at LAC in eastern Ladakh. After the agreement, the two countries began troops disengagement at the two friction points at Demchok and Depsang plains on October 23.

India-China relations worsened because of the Chinese troops’ aggression along the Line of Actual Control, the de facto border, in April 2020. It further deteriorated on June 15, 2020, after 20 Indian soldiers died in the line of duty thwarting the Chinese offensive in the Galwan Valley. New Delhi had said India’s bilateral relations with China will normalise only after the situation at the LAC returns to what it was before May 2020.

Reports said that the Indian Army and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have pulled back their forward-deployed troops and equipment from the two flashpoints, and have also dismantled temporary structures that had been built during the four-year-long standoff.

The Indian soldiers will resume their patrolling in areas that had been cut off because of the PLA’s presence. Nonetheless, the disengagement in Depsang and Demchok will not lead to the creation of buffer zones.

Both the countries had disengaged from Galwan Valley, Pangong Tso, Gogra (PP-17A) and Hot Springs (PP-15) areas and created buffer zones. Speaking to a newspaper publication, Lieutenant General Vinod Bhatia (retd), a former director general of military operations said that the disengagement at Depsang and Demchok will facilitate patrolling by both sides in a coordinated manner, and in the agreed upon frequency and strength of the patrolling parties.

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Iran says 2 soldiers killed in Israeli air strikes

Emphasising Iran’s right to self-defense under the UN Charter, the Iranian Foreign Ministry highlighted its obligation to counter foreign aggression.

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The Iranian Army said on Saturday that two of its soldiers were killed in Israeli air strikes that targeted military bases.

Iran stated that its air defenses effectively countered the attack, resulting in the unfortunate deaths of two soldiers and some areas suffering limited damage.

The Israeli military conducted strikes on Iranian military sites after 2 am on Saturday, responding to what they cited as ongoing attacks by Iran and its allies in the region.

Following the strikes, the Israeli military announced they had successfully completed the mission and achieved their objectives.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed the precise targeting of military sites in Iran to neutralize immediate threats to Israel.

“I can now confirm that we have concluded the Israeli response to Iran’s attacks against Israel. We conducted targeted and precise strikes on military targets in Iran — thwarting immediate threats to the State of Israel,” the Israel Defence Force posted on X.

Iran’s air defense headquarters acknowledged the hits on bases in Ilam, Khuzestan, and Tehran but asserted that these attacks were effectively repelled, with investigations ongoing to assess damages. Moreover, Iran indicated its readiness to retaliate against any Israeli aggression, stating that Israel would face proportional consequences for its actions.

Iran expressed its intentions to respond to the Israeli attacks on its military bases, condemning the actions as a violation of international law and the UN Charter’s principles on the use of force.

Emphasising Iran’s right to self-defense under the UN Charter, the Iranian Foreign Ministry highlighted its obligation to counter foreign aggression.

Pakistan strongly condemned Israel’s strikes on Iran, attributing the escalation to Israel and urging the UN Security Council to intervene for peace and security.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasised that Iran should refrain from retaliating against Israel, advocating for restraint on all sides to prevent further escalation.

“I am clear that Israel has the right to defend itself against Iranian aggression. I’m equally clear that we must avoid further regional escalation and urge all sides to restrain. Iran should not respond,” the PM said at a Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting.

The United States advised Iran to halt its attacks on Israel to cease the ongoing violence and break the cycle of conflict, underlining the importance of de-escalation.

“We urge Iran to cease its attacks on Israel so that this cycle of fighting can end without further escalation,” U.S. National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett told reporters.

President Joe Biden was briefed on the Israeli operation throughout its development and execution by his National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan.

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