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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

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8 years ago

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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Global temperatures are likely to rise by 4C, drowning islands, worsening water scarcity and creating prolonged heat waves

The gloomier the prediction, the more realistic it is – that is the conclusion of a new study on climate change models to assess future warming of the planet.

The findings, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, suggest that the target to keep global temperatures from rising by two degrees Celsius (over pre-industrial era, before 1850 CE), reiterated in Paris Climate Agreement, may be too optimistic and ambitious as it relies on projections that underestimate how much the planet will warm and, by extension, underestimate the cuts in greenhouse gas emissions needed to stave off catastrophic impacts of climate change.

The study, by Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, California, examined climate change simulations, or “models,” that researchers use to project the future of the planet based on the physical equations that govern the behaviour of the atmosphere and oceans.

Co-author of the study Patrick Brown said, “We find that the models that do the best at simulating the recent past project more warming.”

“Our study indicates that if emissions follow a commonly used business-as-usual scenario, there is a 93 per cent chance that global warming will exceed 4C by the end of this century,” said Dr Ken Caldeira, who co-authored the new study.

This is a marked increase in probability of such warming over past estimates, which placed it at 62 per cent.

A warming of 4C would have severe impacts, drowning small islands, eliminating coral reefs, exacerbating water scarcity, loss of biodiversity and creating prolonged heat waves around the world, scientists say.

The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) puts the top range for warming between 3.2C to 5.9C by 2100, giving equal weightage to about three dozen models used by researchers to understand global warming and its impacts.

Climate models are tools for scientists attempting to understand the impacts of greenhouse-gas emissions. They are constructed using fundamental knowledge of physics and the world’s climate. But, given the complexity of the climate system, there is disagreement about how best to model key aspects of it and scientists have produced dozens of climate models predicting a range of different global warming outcomes resulting from greenhouse-gas emissions.

Climate change deniers and opponents of carbon regulation have used these differences in projections to label the models unreliable, inaccurate or just plain wrong.

Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira looked for a way to narrow the uncertainty by determining which models were better. To do this, they looked at the models that were best at simulating climate patterns in the recent past – that is, they saw how the models predicted recent climate conditions and compared that to what actually happened.

“It makes sense that the models that do the best job at simulating today’s observations might be the models with the most reliable predictions,” said Dr Caldeira.

“The IPCC uses a model democracy—one model, one vote—and that’s what they’re saying is the range,” Brown explained. “We’re saying we can do one better. We can try to discriminate between well- and poor-performing models. We’re narrowing the range of uncertainty.”

“… if you take the best models, those are the ones projecting the most warming in the future,” he said.

In a worst-case scenario, the study finds that global temperatures could rise 15 percent more than projected by the IPCC – 0.5C more in the 3.2C-5.9C range – by the end of this century.

The research by Dr Brown and Dr Caldeira focuses specifically on models of energy flow from Earth to space, of the balance of incoming and outgoing radiation that ultimately determines the Earth’s temperature, as measured by satellites. They found the models that do the best job capturing the Earth’s actual “energy imbalance,” as the authors put it, are also the ones that simulate more warming in the planet’s future.

They suggest that the amount of sunlight reflected away from the planet by clouds will decrease as the world gets warmer, increasing the magnitude of climate change.

While the findings were appreciated by scientists, they also raised a point of caution. “This is only one line of evidence. Other lines of evidence based on the historically observed warming suggest the simulations with slightly cooler projections may fit best. We need to consider all the lines of evidence before we jump to conclusions,” Professor Piers Forster, a climate-change specialist at the University of Leeds who was not involved in the study told ‘Independent’.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Israel-Lebanon ceasefire to begin within hours as Trump announces 10-day truce

Israel and Lebanon may begin a 10-day ceasefire within hours after a proposal announced by Donald Trump amid ongoing tensions.

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5 hours ago

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April 16, 2026

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Donald Trump

A temporary halt in hostilities between Israel and Lebanon is expected to begin within hours after US President Donald Trump announced a proposed 10-day ceasefire between the two sides, amid ongoing tensions in the region.

According to his statement, the ceasefire is likely to take effect around 5 p.m. Eastern Time, although independent confirmation from both sides is still awaited.

The development follows discussions involving Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, with mediation efforts led by the United States.

Officials indicated that the proposed truce is aimed at creating a limited window to reduce violence and potentially pave the way for broader diplomatic engagement. The situation along the Israel-Lebanon border has remained tense in recent weeks, with escalation linked to the activities of Hezbollah.

Diplomatic efforts have intensified in recent days, with discussions facilitated by the United States, including the involvement of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. However, details of the agreement and the extent of coordination between the parties remain unclear.

The situation remains fluid, and the success of the ceasefire will depend on adherence by all sides involved. The conflict has already led to significant humanitarian and geopolitical consequences, including displacement and disruption in affected areas.

While the proposed ceasefire is being seen as an important step toward de-escalation, broader negotiations involving regional stakeholders are expected to be necessary for any lasting resolution.

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US ends oil sanctions waiver for Iran and Russia, impact likely on India’s energy imports

The US decision to end the Iran and Russia oil waiver may impact India’s oil imports, fuel prices and global energy markets.

Published

17 hours ago

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April 16, 2026

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US oil tanker

The United States has decided not to extend a temporary sanctions waiver that allowed limited trade in Iranian and Russian oil, marking a shift towards stricter enforcement of economic restrictions.

The waiver, introduced in March 2026, had permitted the sale of oil already loaded on ships to stabilise global supply during heightened geopolitical tensions. However, it is now set to expire around mid-April without renewal.

US officials have indicated that the move is part of a broader strategy to increase pressure on both Iran and Russia amid ongoing conflicts and geopolitical tensions.

What the waiver did and why it mattered

The short-term waiver allowed millions of barrels of oil—estimated at around 140 million barrels—to enter global markets, helping ease supply shortages and prevent sharp price spikes.

It also enabled countries like India to purchase discounted crude oil from Russia and resume limited imports from Iran after years of restrictions.

Impact on India

India, one of the world’s largest oil importers, is expected to feel the impact of the decision in several ways:

  • Reduced access to discounted oil
     India had been buying cheaper Russian crude and recently resumed Iranian imports under the waiver. Its end may limit these options.
  • Potential rise in fuel costs
     With fewer discounted supplies available, India may need to rely more on costlier sources, which could increase domestic fuel prices.
  • Supply diversification pressure
     India may need to explore alternative suppliers in the Middle East, Africa, or the US to maintain energy security.
  • Geopolitical balancing challenge
     The move adds pressure on India to align with US sanctions while managing its own economic interests.

Global energy market concerns

The end of the waiver comes at a time when global oil markets are already under stress due to conflict in West Asia and disruptions in key routes like the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysts warn that tightening sanctions could:

  • Reduce global oil supply
  • Increase price volatility
  • Intensify competition among major buyers like India and China

Bigger picture

The US decision reflects a broader shift from temporary relief measures to stricter enforcement of sanctions, even if it risks tightening global energy markets.

For India, the development highlights a recurring challenge—balancing affordable energy access with geopolitical realities.

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Sanctioned tanker fails to breach US blockade, turns back near Strait of Hormuz

A US-sanctioned tanker failed to cross the Hormuz blockade and turned back, underscoring rising tensions and disruption in global shipping routes.

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2 days ago

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April 15, 2026

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A US-sanctioned oil tanker failed to break through a newly imposed American naval blockade and was forced to turn back near the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting growing tensions in the region.

The vessel, identified as the Rich Starry, reversed its course after attempting to exit the Gulf, according to shipping data. The development comes just days after the United States enforced restrictions on ships linked to Iranian ports.

The blockade was announced by Donald Trump following the collapse of recent diplomatic talks with Iran. The move aims to restrict maritime traffic associated with Iranian trade.

Officials said that during the first 24 hours of enforcement, no vessel successfully crossed the blockade. Several ships, including the sanctioned tanker, complied with instructions from US forces and turned back toward regional waters.

The tanker is reported to be linked to a Chinese company previously sanctioned for dealing with Iran. It was carrying a cargo of methanol loaded from the United Arab Emirates at the time of the incident.

The situation underscores the rising risks in one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes. The Strait of Hormuz typically handles a significant share of global energy shipments, but traffic has sharply declined due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The blockade, which applies specifically to vessels travelling to or from Iranian ports, has added further uncertainty for shipping companies, insurers and global energy markets.

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