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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

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9 years ago

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The more accurate estimates project a gloomier global warming scenario, says new study

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Global temperatures are likely to rise by 4C, drowning islands, worsening water scarcity and creating prolonged heat waves

The gloomier the prediction, the more realistic it is – that is the conclusion of a new study on climate change models to assess future warming of the planet.

The findings, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, suggest that the target to keep global temperatures from rising by two degrees Celsius (over pre-industrial era, before 1850 CE), reiterated in Paris Climate Agreement, may be too optimistic and ambitious as it relies on projections that underestimate how much the planet will warm and, by extension, underestimate the cuts in greenhouse gas emissions needed to stave off catastrophic impacts of climate change.

The study, by Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, California, examined climate change simulations, or “models,” that researchers use to project the future of the planet based on the physical equations that govern the behaviour of the atmosphere and oceans.

Co-author of the study Patrick Brown said, “We find that the models that do the best at simulating the recent past project more warming.”

“Our study indicates that if emissions follow a commonly used business-as-usual scenario, there is a 93 per cent chance that global warming will exceed 4C by the end of this century,” said Dr Ken Caldeira, who co-authored the new study.

This is a marked increase in probability of such warming over past estimates, which placed it at 62 per cent.

A warming of 4C would have severe impacts, drowning small islands, eliminating coral reefs, exacerbating water scarcity, loss of biodiversity and creating prolonged heat waves around the world, scientists say.

The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) puts the top range for warming between 3.2C to 5.9C by 2100, giving equal weightage to about three dozen models used by researchers to understand global warming and its impacts.

Climate models are tools for scientists attempting to understand the impacts of greenhouse-gas emissions. They are constructed using fundamental knowledge of physics and the world’s climate. But, given the complexity of the climate system, there is disagreement about how best to model key aspects of it and scientists have produced dozens of climate models predicting a range of different global warming outcomes resulting from greenhouse-gas emissions.

Climate change deniers and opponents of carbon regulation have used these differences in projections to label the models unreliable, inaccurate or just plain wrong.

Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira looked for a way to narrow the uncertainty by determining which models were better. To do this, they looked at the models that were best at simulating climate patterns in the recent past – that is, they saw how the models predicted recent climate conditions and compared that to what actually happened.

“It makes sense that the models that do the best job at simulating today’s observations might be the models with the most reliable predictions,” said Dr Caldeira.

“The IPCC uses a model democracy—one model, one vote—and that’s what they’re saying is the range,” Brown explained. “We’re saying we can do one better. We can try to discriminate between well- and poor-performing models. We’re narrowing the range of uncertainty.”

“… if you take the best models, those are the ones projecting the most warming in the future,” he said.

In a worst-case scenario, the study finds that global temperatures could rise 15 percent more than projected by the IPCC – 0.5C more in the 3.2C-5.9C range – by the end of this century.

The research by Dr Brown and Dr Caldeira focuses specifically on models of energy flow from Earth to space, of the balance of incoming and outgoing radiation that ultimately determines the Earth’s temperature, as measured by satellites. They found the models that do the best job capturing the Earth’s actual “energy imbalance,” as the authors put it, are also the ones that simulate more warming in the planet’s future.

They suggest that the amount of sunlight reflected away from the planet by clouds will decrease as the world gets warmer, increasing the magnitude of climate change.

While the findings were appreciated by scientists, they also raised a point of caution. “This is only one line of evidence. Other lines of evidence based on the historically observed warming suggest the simulations with slightly cooler projections may fit best. We need to consider all the lines of evidence before we jump to conclusions,” Professor Piers Forster, a climate-change specialist at the University of Leeds who was not involved in the study told ‘Independent’.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Trump says Iran agrees to never have nuclear weapons, rejects $300 billion fund claim

Donald Trump said Iran has agreed to never possess nuclear weapons under a proposed framework, while dismissing reports that the US would provide Tehran with a $300 billion reconstruction fund.

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6 hours ago

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June 16, 2026

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Donald Trump statement

US President Donald Trump has said that Iran has agreed to a commitment that it will never develop or possess nuclear weapons, describing it as a central element of a proposed understanding between Washington and Tehran.

Speaking about the ongoing diplomatic efforts, Trump also rejected reports suggesting that the United States planned to provide Iran with a reconstruction or investment package worth $300 billion. He described such claims as false and said no such arrangement had been agreed.

The remarks come as discussions continue over a broader framework aimed at easing tensions between the two countries. According to Trump, the understanding would ensure that Iran remains without nuclear weapons while opening the door for future engagement if the terms are respected.

Questions remain over final agreement details

Despite Trump’s comments, several aspects of the proposed arrangement remain unclear because the full text of the agreement has not yet been made public.

Reports indicate that negotiations have involved discussions on sanctions relief, access to frozen assets and potential economic measures linked to Iran’s compliance with future commitments. However, the exact scope of these provisions has not been officially confirmed.

Another key issue is how compliance would be monitored. Details regarding inspections, verification mechanisms and the handling of Iran’s existing nuclear materials have yet to be fully explained.

Further negotiations expected

Officials have suggested that discussions on technical nuclear matters could continue even after the signing of an initial memorandum of understanding. Such talks would likely focus on implementation and verification measures.

The proposed framework is being closely watched internationally, as any agreement between the United States and Iran could have significant implications for regional stability and global non-proliferation efforts.

For now, Trump has maintained that the core objective remains clear: ensuring that Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon while denying reports that Washington has committed to a multibillion-dollar reconstruction fund.

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USA start FIFA World Cup 2026 with dominant 4-1 victory over Paraguay

The USA opened their FIFA World Cup 2026 journey with a dominant 4-1 victory against Paraguay, earning three valuable points in Group D.

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3 days ago

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June 13, 2026

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The United States kicked off their FIFA World Cup 2026 campaign in impressive fashion, securing a commanding 4-1 victory over Paraguay in their Group D opener at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.

Playing in front of a passionate home crowd, the hosts delivered an attacking display to collect all three points and make an early statement in the tournament. The match also marked a significant occasion as the USA hosted part of the World Cup opening festivities before turning attention to the action on the pitch.

The Americans took control early and maintained pressure on Paraguay throughout the contest. Their attacking movement and clinical finishing helped them establish a comfortable lead, while Paraguay struggled to contain the hosts’ pace and creativity in the final third.

USA seize control after fast start

The United States settled quickly and found success going forward, creating several opportunities through quick passing and aggressive pressing. Their attacking approach paid off as they built momentum and gradually stretched Paraguay’s defence.

Paraguay attempted to respond and managed to get on the scoresheet, but the South American side found it difficult to match the intensity shown by the hosts. The USA continued to create chances and added further goals to put the result beyond doubt.

With the victory, the United States moved to the top section of Group D and gained an important boost in confidence ahead of their upcoming fixtures in the tournament.

Strong opening result for hosts

A winning start is particularly important in a World Cup campaign, and the USA achieved exactly that with a comprehensive performance. The result gives the hosts valuable momentum as they prepare for the next stage of group play.

For Paraguay, the defeat means they will need a strong response in their remaining group matches to keep their hopes of progressing to the knockout rounds alive.

The FIFA World Cup 2026 is being jointly hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico, with the tournament featuring an expanded format and more participating teams than previous editions.

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Jaishankar raises deaths of three Indian sailors with Marco Rubio, lodges strong protest

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar conveyed India’s strong protest to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio over an attack that killed three Indian sailors, stressing that lethal action against commercial shipping is unjustified.

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3 days ago

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June 13, 2026

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External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar on Saturday spoke with Marco Rubio and conveyed India’s strong protest over recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Gulf that resulted in the deaths of three Indian sailors.

According to reports, Jaishankar told Rubio that the use of lethal force against commercial shipping was not justified and underlined India’s serious concerns regarding the safety of civilian seafarers operating in the region. The conversation came days after three Indian mariners were killed in an attack on the Palau-flagged tanker Settebello near the Oman coast.

The incident has triggered diplomatic engagement between New Delhi and Washington. India had earlier summoned a senior US diplomat to register its concerns and seek accountability following the attack. The Ministry of External Affairs has emphasized that actions endangering civilian shipping undermine maritime safety and stability in a strategically important region.

India reiterates concern over maritime safety

India has stressed the importance of protecting civilian seafarers and ensuring the security of international maritime commerce. Officials have expressed concern over multiple incidents involving Indian crew members in West Asian waters in recent days.

The deaths of the three sailors have also sparked calls within India for stronger diplomatic efforts to safeguard Indian nationals working aboard commercial vessels in conflict-affected maritime zones.

Background of the incident

The attack involved the tanker Settebello, which was operating near Oman when it was struck during ongoing tensions linked to the conflict involving Iran and maritime operations in the Gulf region. Initial reports indicated that Indian crew members were among those affected, and later confirmations established that three Indian sailors had died in the incident.

India has maintained that civilian shipping should not become a target and has continued diplomatic outreach to ensure the safety and welfare of Indian seafarers working across global shipping routes.

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