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Pre-poll surveys predict win to Cong in Rajasthan, edge to BJP in Chhattisgarh, differ on MP

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]With elections to five state assemblies due in days, pre-poll surveys have come out with their findings based on their different surveys, the latest of which, by Center For Voting Opinions and Trends in Election Research (C-Voter) gives Congress reason to cheer with three states going in its kitty.

Polls in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Rajasthan and Telangana will be held between November 12 and December 7. Counting of votes will be taken up together in all the five states on December 11.

In August, an ABP-CVoter opinion poll shared ahead of the Assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh showed the Congress getting a majority in all the three states, with the incumbent BJP falling far behind.

In the present round, the C-Voter survey has projected that Congress party would win polls in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Telangana. The opinion poll, however, did not give a clear majority to any party in Mizoram or Chhattisgarh.

The latest opinion poll by ABP News-Lokniti CSDS, however, said that the BJP will come back to power for the fourth time in a row in Madhya Pradesh  although Congress may improve its position. In Chhattisgarh, too, the BJP will return to power with Raman Singh government improving its tally, says the ABP News-Lokniti CSDS survey, while Congress will serve as the main opposition.

Both C-Voter and ABP News Lokniti CSDS surveys predict a resounding defeat for BJP’s Vasundhara Raje government in Rajasthan.

In Rajasthan, which has the tradition of electing an alternative government in every election, the C-Voter survey has predicted a thumping majority for the Congress with 145 seats, with Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje struggling against a strong anti-incumbency factor. The opinion poll gave BJP only 45 seats with 39.7 per cent vote share, against 47.9 per cent of the opposition Congress.

ABP News Lokniti CSDS poll also predicts losses for BJP in Rajasthan. Of the 200 seats, it predicts BJP will get 84 while the Congress will get 110, or 10 more than the halfway mark. Vasuhndara Raje has been CM since 2013 in the state which, for the past four terms has alternated between voting Congress and BJP.

CNX poll survey for Times Now and India TV in Rajasthan has projected 115 seats for Congress against 75 to BJP and Cfore poll survey for Asianet gave 130 to Congress and 65 to BJP.

Polling will be held in Rajasthan on December 7.

In Madhya Pradesh, the C-Voter survey holds out hope for the Congress to return to power after a gap of 15 years on the back of 42.3 per cent vote share. The projections gave BJP 107 seats, down from 166, and a simple majority of 116 seats to the Congress.

The CNX poll survey projected 122 seats for the BJP and 95 for the Congress

Madhya Pradesh will go to polls on November 28

In Chhattisgarh, C-Voter poll survey predicts a close contest. It gave 41 seats to the Congress with a 42.2 per cent vote share, while BJP is projected to get a slightly lower 41.6 per cent vote share and 43 seats.

However, according to ABP-Lokniti CSDS survey, BJP will perform better in Chhattisgarh. It says the Raman Singh-led government would win 52-60 seats. The poll predicts 17-25 for Congress in the 90-member Chhattisgarh assembly. In 2013, The BJP had won 49 seats while Congress had 39. The BSP had two seats.

The CNX poll survey has projected that the BJP could get 50 and Congress 30 seats, with others getting 10 seats in Chhattisgarh.

Chhattisgarh will go to polls in two phases on November 12 and November 20.

In Telangana, the C-Voter survey has projected a clear majority of 64 seats to the Congress-TDP combine. The Congress has decided to contest 94 seats in Telangana, said media reports quoting sources in Telangana Pradesh Congress Committee. The TDP (Telangana) will contest on 14 seats, while the Telangana Jana Samiti has been offered eight seats and CPI three seats.

C-Voter opinion poll did not give a clear majority to any party in Mizoram, with the Mizo National Front projected to lead with 17 seats, followed by the Congress with 12 seats and Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) with nine seats.

Congress chief spokesperson Randeep Surjewala said while the C-Voter survey is heartening and interesting, the situation on the ground is that the party is winning in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and also in Telangana in a resounding manner.

“We hope to cross the two-third mark in Rajasthan and hope to get close to 140 seats in Madhya Pradesh and over 50-mark in Chhattisgarh. The coalition of Congress will romp home confidently, trouncing the BJP stooge TRS in Telangana. Congress will also retain Mizoram,” he told PTI.

BJP spokesperson Bizay Sonkar Shastri rejecting the opinion polls, which gave Congress an edge in some poll-bound states, asserted that his party will not only form governments in the three states ruled by it, but also be a part of the ruling dispensation in Telangana and Mizoram.

He said the BJP is heading for a big victory in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, and that the campaign by “our magic man”, a reference to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, will give further boost to the party’s prospects.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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CJP leaders Saurav Das, Ashutosh Ranka, Ajinkya Shinde sent to 5-day judicial custody

Three CJP leaders, Saurav Das, Ashutosh Ranka and Ajinkya Shinde, were placed under preventive arrest following a protest at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar over Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar.

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Three leaders of the Cockroach Janata Party (CJP) — Saurav Das, Ashutosh Ranka and Ajinkya Shinde — have been placed under preventive arrest in connection with a protest at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar, where demonstrators demanded the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar.

The three were detained early Tuesday after crossing police barricades and entering Jantar Mantar, which was recently removed from the list of designated protest venues. A case was registered against them over their alleged actions.

According to the police case, the charges include trespassing, violation of a bond, and obstructing a public official from performing official duties.

The three leaders were produced before a Special Court of the Executive Magistrate on Wednesday and could be sent to judicial custody at Tihar Jail.

Why CJP leaders protested at Jantar Mantar

The protest comes amid demonstrations by the CJP and opposition groups over alleged irregularities in the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls.

The protesters were demanding the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar. The controversy centres on allegations concerning the electoral roll revision exercise, which the Election Commission and the BJP have denied.

Jantar Mantar was recently removed from the list of designated protest venues in Delhi. The change followed an order naming alternative locations for demonstrations, prompting criticism from groups that want to hold protests at the established site.

CJP legal team raises concerns over detention

Ratna Singh, head of the CJP legal team, said in a post on X that Delhi Police had arrested Saurav Das, Ashutosh Ranka and Ajinkya Shinde at Parliament Street Police Station in connection with the Jantar Mantar case.

Singh alleged that the three were brought to the police station in a private van at around 3 am and were not allowed to meet their lawyers until late at night.

She also raised concerns about the legal process and the possibility of the leaders being sent to judicial custody.

The allegations regarding access to legal counsel were made by the CJP legal team and should be distinguished from the charges registered by the police.

The arrests mark another development in the ongoing dispute over protests at Jantar Mantar and the CJP’s campaign against the Chief Election Commissioner over the SIR exercise.

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BJP focuses on religion as opposition pushes BDM strategy in UP

The BJP is emphasising religious issues ahead of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, while opposition parties are seeking to consolidate Backward, Dalit and Minority voters. Recent exchanges involving Yogi Adityanath, Akhilesh Yadav and Asaduddin Owaisi have added to the political contest over the state’s electoral narrative.

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Ahead of the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, the BJP is emphasising religious issues, while opposition parties are seeking to build a coalition of Backward, Dalit and Minority voters. The competing approaches have brought caste representation and religious messaging to the forefront of the state’s political discourse.

Recent temple-related controversies in Kashi, Ayodhya, Mathura and Sambhal have brought religious messaging back into the political conversation. The developments have also coincided with exchanges between Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav over possible electoral contests.

Yogi Adityanath, Akhilesh Yadav trade election challenges

The latest round of political exchanges followed Yogi Adityanath’s invocation of the “80-20” formula during the Rajya Sabha election. Akhilesh Yadav subsequently challenged the Chief Minister to contest from Ayodhya.

During his visit to Ayodhya, the Samajwadi Party president attended a Bhagwat Katha but did not visit the Ram Mandir for darshan. His visit, during which he attended a Bhagwat Katha but did not visit the Ram Mandir for darshan, became another point of political discussion.

The Chief Minister responded during a visit to Balrampur, asking Akhilesh Yadav to contest against him.

The exchanges continued as political leaders questioned the Samajwadi Party chief’s religious outreach. State minister Om Prakash Rajbhar asked why Yadav had not visited Mathura, while AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi challenged him to contest from Sambhal.

Responding to questions about the challenges, Akhilesh Yadav said the Chief Minister does not decide which candidates the parties nominate.

At a press conference in Lucknow, Yadav also remarked, “What could be better than getting the Chief Minister’s chair without even contesting the election?” His comment suggested that Adityanath might not contest the Assembly elections.

Adityanath, meanwhile, said he was pleased to have several options available to him.

BJP works on its own caste coalition

Alongside its emphasis on religious issues, the BJP is also seeking to broaden its social support base through caste representation.

During the Rajya Sabha elections, the party fielded three candidates from Backward Classes, two Dalits, two Brahmins and one Rajput. The Backward Class candidates included representatives of the Pal, Kurmi and Lodh communities.

The report describes the BJP’s selection of candidates from the Sonkar and Rawat communities as an attempt to attract support among the Gaur and Jatav Dalit vote banks. Its selection of two Brahmins and one Rajput was also part of its outreach to upper-caste voters.

These choices reflect the BJP’s efforts to build a social coalition that extends beyond its religious messaging as the state approaches the next Assembly election.

Akhilesh Yadav balances caste outreach with temple politics

The Samajwadi Party is also combining its BDM approach with religious outreach, described in the report as “soft Hindutva”.

Akhilesh Yadav is overseeing the construction of the Kedareshwar Temple in Etawah. When questioned about not visiting the Ram Mandir during his Ayodhya trip, he said he was waiting for the temple’s “Pran Pratishtha”, or consecration ceremony, implying that the ceremony held in 2024 did not count.

Yadav has also raised the issue of alleged theft of offerings at the Ram Temple, a move the report interprets as an attempt to appeal to Hindu voters.

The competing strategies indicate that caste representation, religious issues and temple-related controversies are all featuring in political messaging ahead of the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections.

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L Murugan quits Union ministry to strengthen BJP in Tamil Nadu

L Murugan has resigned from his Union ministerial post and Rajya Sabha membership, saying he wants to return to grassroots politics and dedicate himself to strengthening the BJP in Tamil Nadu before the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.

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L Murugan

L Murugan has resigned from his position as Union Minister of State and his Rajya Sabha membership, saying he wants to return to grassroots politics and work towards strengthening the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Tamil Nadu ahead of the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.

Murugan, who held the portfolios of Information and Broadcasting and Parliamentary Affairs, announced his decision in a post on X on Tuesday, October 13. He described his time in the Union government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership as a great honour and said he wanted to devote himself full-time to the party’s work in Tamil Nadu.

L Murugan says he wants to return to grassroots politics

In his post, Murugan expressed gratitude for the opportunity to serve in the Union Council of Ministers and highlighted his background as the son of daily-wage labourers.

He said he now wished to return to the grassroots, stand alongside BJP workers and dedicate his time to strengthening the party in Tamil Nadu before the next Lok Sabha elections.

Murugan’s stated objective is to help expand the BJP’s presence in the state and contribute to the party’s performance in the 2029 general elections.

Murugan’s resignation comes amid Cabinet reshuffle speculation

His decision comes amid speculation about a possible reshuffle in the Union government. The discussion gained momentum after several Rajya Sabha MPs and ministers, including Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, were not renominated.

However, the report does not establish that the speculation about a Cabinet reshuffle was the reason for Murugan’s resignation. His publicly stated reason was his desire to return to grassroots work and strengthen the BJP in Tamil Nadu.

Murugan thanks PM Modi for the opportunity to serve

Murugan described serving India and Tamil Nadu under Modi’s leadership as one of the greatest privileges of his life. He also referred to his journey from a family of daily-wage labourers to the Union Council of Ministers.

His announcement places his immediate political focus on Tamil Nadu, with the BJP’s preparations for the 2029 Lok Sabha elections forming a central part of his stated plans.

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