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India will remain on similar growth curve till 2030, expect well behaved inflation this fiscal: CEA

Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran on Tuesday projected that India’s economy was poised to do better and expected to grow at 6.5-7 percent till the end of the decade.

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Economic Survey

Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran on Tuesday projected that India’s economy was poised to do better and expected to grow at 6.5-7 percent till the end of the decade.

Nageswaran, while talking to the media after tabling of the Economic Survey in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, said that the inflation is likely to be “well behaved” in the coming fiscal year barring any unforeseen factors.

According to the Economic Survey prepared by the CEA, RBI projection of retail inflation at 6.8 per cent in the current fiscal is neither too high to deter private consumption, nor too low as to weaken inducement to invest.

The Economic Survey for the current fiscal also state that the Indian economy is expected to hit a minor slow down to 6.5 percent in April 2023 but will continue to remain the fastest-growing major economy in the world owing to its ability to better deal with challenges faced by the global economy.

The CEA maintained that the projected growth rate would remain stable as long as oil prices stayed below 100 dollars per barrel. He also pointed out that the quality of public expenditure has gone up and the government has become more transparent with budget deficit numbers, adding that an increased transparency is being witnessed in public procurement.

Read Also: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman tables Economic Survey 2023, check highlights here

Nageswaran stressed that credit growth is picking up across sectors, and credit to MSMEs has grown at 30 per cent since January 2022, while NPAs in NBFCs is lower than what it was 15 months ago.

The CEA revealed that India is well ahead of its targets for renewable energy mix.

Earlier on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund in its January update of the World Economic Outlook called India as a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy world economy which, together with China, will account for half of the global growth in 2023, compared to the US and Euro area, who account for just a 10th of the world’s growth.

The IMF report had made almost similar projections to the Economic Survey tabled by the government. It has projected India’s growth to dip slightly from 6.1 percent to 6.8 percent during the current fiscal year ending on March 31. IMF also expects some minor slowdown in the Indian economy in the next fiscal year.

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India a bright spot amid projected decline in global growth: IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected India’s growth to dip slightly from 6.1 percent to 6.8 percent during the current fiscal year ending on March 31. IMF also expects some minor slowdown in the Indian economy in the next fiscal year.

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International Monetary Fund

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected India’s growth to dip slightly from 6.1 percent to 6.8 percent during the current fiscal year ending on March 31. IMF also expects some minor slowdown in the Indian economy in the next fiscal year.

According to the January update of the World Economic Outlook released by global fiscal body on Tuesday, global growth is projected to fall from a projected 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 percent in 2024.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Chief Economist and Director, Research Department of the IMF said in a statement that the IMF’s projections for India remain unchanged from its October update as they predict a 6.8 percent growth curve for the Indian economy for the current fiscal and an expected minor dip to 6.1 percent in the next fiscal.

According to the IMF World Economic Outlook, the slowdown is largely driven by external factors, adding that the India’s growth will once again see an upward curve and go up to 6.8 percent in 2024 due to resilient domestic demand despite external factors.

The report expects a rise in growth in developing Asian nations in 2023 and 2024 to 5.3 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively, after the slowdown in 2022 to 4.3 percent.

For the first time in the last four decades, China’s growth fell below the global average in the fourth quarter of 2022 which saw a 0.2 percentage point downgrade, settling at 3.0 percent. However, China’s growth is expected to rise to 5.2 percent in 2023 and fall to 4.5 percent in 2024 before settling at below 4 percent over the medium term amid declining business dynamism and slow progress on structural reforms.

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Gourinchas pointed out that emerging market economies and developing economies are already on the way up and have seen a slight rise in growth for the region from 3.9 percent in 2022 to 4 percent in 2023.

He stressed that India and China combined account for almost 50 percent of world growth in 2023, adding that IMF’s positive view on India’s growth curve remains unchanged.

Gourinchas in a blog post termed India as a bright spot which, together with China, will account for half of the global growth in 2023, compared to the US and Euro area, who account for just a 10th of the world’s growth.

Gourinchas also forecasted a much more pronounced slowdown for advanced economies with a decline from 2.7 percent last year to 1.2 percent and 1.4 percent this year and next.

Nine out of 10 advanced economies will likely decelerate, he added.

He predicted that the US’ growth will slow to 1.4 percent in 2023 as Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes work their way through the economy. Euro area conditions are more challenging despite signs of resilience to the energy crisis, a mild winter, and generous fiscal support, he said.

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LPG cylinder price hiked by Rs 50, check latest rates of different cities

On July 6, 2022, oil companies have drastically increased the price of domestic LPG cylinders. The price of the cylinders has been increased by Rs 50. After this, the price of gas cylinders in Delhi has been increased to Rs 1053.

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LPG cylinder price hike

Inflation has hit the pocket of the common man once again. Oil companies have increased the price of domestic LPG cylinders.

Oil companies drastically increased the price of domestic LPG cylinders on July 7. Companies have increased the price of cylinders by Rs 50 and now the price of gas cylinders in Delhi has been increased to Rs 1053.

LPG Prices in different cities

Domestic LPG cylinders in Kolkata have been increased to Rs 1,079. Apart from this, the price of a domestic gas cylinder in Mumbai has been increased to Rs 1,052.50, and in Chennai, the price of a gas cylinder has gone up to Rs 1,068.50. Moreover, the price of this non-subsidised gas cylinder has been increased.

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Reduction in commercial gas cylinders

On the other hand, there has been a decline in the price of commercial gas cylinders. On July 1, 2022, a major reduction of Rs 198 was made in the price of commercial LPG cylinders by the oil companies. After this, it was speculated that now there will be a fall in the price of domestic LPG gas cylinders, but the oil companies have given a big blow to the common man today.

On July 1, 2022, the commercial gas cylinder in Delhi was reduced to Rs 2021. Now, after a further cut in the price on July 6, 2022, it has become Rs 2012.50. Similarly, a 19 kg commercial gas cylinder will be available in Kolkata for Rs 2,132. It has reached Rs 1972.50 in Mumbai and Rs 2177.50 in Chennai.

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