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How China fudges its employment figures

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How China fudges its employment figures

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]While its minister has warned of half-a-million job cuts in the manufacturing sector, his promise of rehabilitating these workers in the service sector seems hollow as the figures available simply do not add up

By Sujit Bhar

Here are two news items on the employment scenario in China. Together they present an interesting mosaic on the employment scenario in China.

The first, reported by the Associated Press and (AP) carried by US’ leading daily USA Today, says that Chinese labour minister Yin Weimin said at a press briefing in Beijing that China will cut 500,000 more steel and coal jobs this year “to reduce excess production capacity.”

This was purportedly in reaction to complains in international trading circles of the dumping of cheap Chinese products, wreaking havoc with price structures and weights on commodity exchanges.

The second, issued by news agency IANS on March 2, also from Beijing, and also quoting the same minister, Yin Weimin, talks about how China had “created over 13 million urban jobs for four consecutive years, despite downward pressure and industrial restructuring in the Chinese economy.” This piece of information was provided by the minister to the People’s Daily Online.

Trying to understand Chinese double-speak is like studying Egyptian hieroglyphics, where every gesture and every picture could have many meanings. 

Let us try to make sense of these two.

The bad news first.

AP talks about China’s huge effort to shrink its bloated industries including steel, coal, cement, aluminium and glass. It is a known fact that China had more installed capacity than even the worldwide demand. Aided by subsidies, these conglomerates (mostly government-owned or partly state-owned) pushed goods across the oceans, dumping cheap products in western countries and also India, taking advantage of WTO loopholes.

With the arrival of President Donald Trump on the American scenario, the clamour for restricting Chinese supplies has grown. Europe, too, has been up in arms to protect local industries. This has resulted in massive job cuts. The minister had said at the press conference that those laid off will get government help to find other jobs, start companies or retire.

Yin was quotes as saying: “This year, to reduce excess capacity, we need to make accommodation for 500,000 workers.” This, in plain speak, means half a million will be sacked.

Last year 726,000 workers lost their jobs in the same sector.

The minister said that this was 40 percent of the 1.8 million jobs that were to go. While the minister said that they too were provided help to restructure their lives and finances, several reports elsewhere have narrated how these workers simply had to return home to their farms, jobless, hopeless.

Now the supposed good news.

Yin has reportedly said that the “unemployment rate in Chinese cities was relatively low over the past four years.” How has he arrived at such a conclusion? He talks about four factors.

The first is the most stupendous, contradicting all major studies around the world. This is about what Yin calls “sustained economic development”. He talks about last fiscal where China’s GDP growth was 6.7 per cent, pushing the country’s GDP to $10.8 trillion.

However doubtful the first assumption (or clarification) may be, the second lets you peek into the truth. He talks about constant restructuring of industry, to optimise each sector. What does that mean? Yin reveals in his next statement.  “Tertiary industry can create on average 20 per cent more jobs than the secondary industry,” he has said.

He pointed out that “last year, the tertiary industry’s contribution to China’s GDP was as high as 51.6 per cent, 11.8 percent higher than that of the secondary industry.”

We need to talk about this in further detail, but the third factor Yin mentioned about was “reform.” This actually elaborates on the second factor, as we will come to know in a while.

Regarding reform, the minister talked about administrative reforms in government and “business reforms”, “cultivating mass entrepreneurship and innovation.”

So what manner of number crunching has the ministry engaged in while explaining two apparently disparate industry factors?

To get to the bottom, we need to understand the nature of “tertiary industry”.

Tertiary industry, as per definition, is “industry that provides services rather than producing goods, or these industries considered as a group.”

China has been, as announced, moving more towards the service sector, trying to reduce its dependence on the manufacturing sector. But how does that explain the employment scenario?

The following pie chart shows how the Chinese depict their stride into the service sector world (2013):

One would expect this to be good news, till one studies this Slate.com graph on the employment in the different sectors in 2010.Basically the “reform” is moving workers out of the manufacturing sector and retraining them for the service sector. The numbers don’t add up, sadly. The claims are as hollow as the overall system in China is. For the service sector to absorb all excesses in the manufacturing sector there has to be massive domestic demand (in India, the GDP is spurred by a huge 56 percent domestic demand).

China’s export-driven economy has not been able to adjust as quickly as it would have wanted. Only a small percentage of those laid off are being re-absorbed, also at lower salaries. How that provides such a boost to the overall GDP is a mystery.

Double-speak is a nature of Chinese diplomacy. Reading between the lines should be a nature we should develop in understanding Chinese diplomats.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

Why Hindenburg Research is shutting down: A personal note from the founder

Anderson emphasised that his choice was not prompted by any single factor. There are no external threats, health concerns, or urgent issues necessitating this decision. Instead, he described it as a natural conclusion to a significant chapter in his life.

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Nate Anderson, the founder of Hindenburg Research, has decided to shut down his short-selling venture, which has famously exposed alleged frauds amounting to billions and sent shockwaves through major corporations. From igniting a $150 billion crisis for the Adani Group to taking down giants like Nikola and Eros International, Hindenburg has become synonymous with financial scrutiny and controversy depending on one’s perspective.

In a comprehensive blog post titled “Personal Note From Our Founder,” Anderson revealed his decision, stating that the firm has fulfilled its mission and that it is time to move forward. “As I’ve shared with family, friends, and our team since late last year, I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research,” he wrote.

Anderson emphasised that his choice was not prompted by any single factor. There are no external threats, health concerns, or urgent issues necessitating this decision. Instead, he described it as a natural conclusion to a significant chapter in his life.

This announcement follows Hindenburg’s completion of its final investigations into alleged financial fraud, which have been submitted to regulators. “As of the last Ponzi cases we just completed and are sharing with regulators, that day is today,” Anderson noted.

Reflecting on his career, he acknowledged that his intense dedication to the firm had come at the expense of other life areas. Initially motivated by a desire to prove himself, he ultimately began to view Hindenburg Research as just one of many chapters in his life.

In the upcoming six months, Anderson plans to create and share content, including materials and videos, to transparently illustrate the firm’s investigative techniques. He hopes this will inspire others to pursue similar efforts.

Hindenburg Research operated with a small but committed team of 11 members. Anderson praised their dedication to precise, evidence-based reporting and their courage in uncovering financial fraud. His team’s efforts have significantly influenced the landscape of financial accountability, with nearly 100 individuals facing civil or criminal charges partially attributable to their investigations.

“Nearly 100 individuals have been charged civilly or criminally by regulators, at least in part due to our work, including billionaires and oligarchs. We shook some empires that we felt needed shaking,” Anderson stated.

Hindenburg garnered international attention in January 2023 when it published a report alleging fraud and stock manipulation by the Adani Group. This report triggered a massive selloff in Adani’s stock, erasing over $100 billion from Gautam Adani’s personal wealth and causing the market capitalization of 10 Adani Group companies to plummet from ₹19.19 lakh crore on January 24, 2023, to below ₹7 lakh crore by February 27.

Although Adani stocks eventually recovered, the Supreme Court later noted that allegations made by organizations like Hindenburg, without proper verification, cannot be considered valid evidence. Previously, Hindenburg’s investigations included exposing Nikola Corporation in 2020 for fraud, which resulted in the resignation of founder Trevor Milton.

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India News

Sensex sheds 1,049 points, Nifty drops below 23,100

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Sensex falls 1,049 points, Nifty slips below 23,100 amid market downturn

The Indian stock market faced another day of sharp declines on January 13, as bearish sentiments tightened their grip for the fourth consecutive session. Weak global cues, a surge in crude oil prices to a three-month high, and reduced expectations of a U.S. rate cut in 2025 contributed to the downward spiral.

At the close of trading, the Sensex plunged 1,048.90 points or 1.36% to settle at 76,330.01. The Nifty also fell significantly, shedding 345.55 points or 1.47% to close at 23,085.95.

Sectoral impact

All sectoral indices ended the session in the red. The realty index was the worst hit, slumping by 6.7%. Other sectors, including oil & gas, power, PSU, metal, and media, recorded losses in the range of 3-4%.

This broad-based sell-off saw investors’ wealth take a major hit. The market capitalization of BSE-listed companies dropped sharply by Rs 12.39 lakh crore, falling to Rs 417.28 lakh crore from Rs 429.67 lakh crore in the previous session.

Key drivers of the decline

Crude oil prices: Crude oil surged to a three-month high, stoking fears of inflationary pressures and higher input costs across industries.

Global market trends: Weak global markets added to investor apprehensions, as global indices reflected a cautious outlook amid economic uncertainties.

Interest rate concerns: Revised expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts in 2025 also weighed on investor sentiment.

Outlook

Market experts suggest that volatility may persist in the near term as global and domestic factors continue to influence investor behavior. A focus on corporate earnings reports and international economic trends will be critical in shaping market movements in the weeks ahead.

With a significant erosion in investor wealth, market participants remain cautious as they navigate the ongoing uncertainties.

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Latest business news

Pune entrepreneur asks Blinkit CEO to launch ATM service after Ambulance, sparks debate

It’s worth mentioning that similar services are already available, such as platforms like MakeMyTrip that offer foreign currency delivery.

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Days after Blinkit launched its 10-minute ambulance service, a start-up founder and YouTuber reached out to Blinkit CEO Albinder Dhindsa with a request to introduce an “ATM-like” service. The founder suggested that this service would be “incredibly helpful.”

Harsh Punjabi, founder of The Dot Company and a YouTuber, posted on social media platform X: “Hey @albinder, please start an ATM-like service on Blinkit. Users could pay via UPI, and cash could be delivered to their doorstep in under 10 minutes. That would be super helpful!”

His rationale for this suggestion became clear in a follow-up tweet where he expressed, “Leaving for a trip and need cash. I only have Rs 100 at home. I don’t want to go to the ATM, but it looks like I’ll have to.”

Punjabi’s tweet sparked a variety of responses. Some users pointed out that delivery charges would incur an 18 percent GST, while others claimed that the idea would make Indians lazier. Many questioned the need for cash, given the widespread acceptance of UPI.

One user remarked, “The idea is good, but the 18 percent GST on delivery charges would ruin everything,” while another joked, “This scheme should be kept a secret.”

Another user lamented, “Why doesn’t Blinkit breathe on our behalf too? We’ve become that lazy,” and another added humorously, “Please, let’s not make India lazy to this extent.”

A user highlighted that similar arrangements exist where customers go to shops, pay extra for their bills, and take back the additional cash for tasks like paying rickshaw pullers.

“Why do you want cash? Cash should be eliminated. We need maximum digitalization,” one user opined, while another noted that acquiring smaller notes can be tricky, especially when UPI isn’t an option.

It’s worth mentioning that similar services are already available, such as platforms like MakeMyTrip that offer foreign currency delivery.

On January 2, Blinkit announced its ambulance service. Dhindsa stated, “We are taking our first step toward addressing the challenge of providing quick and reliable ambulance services in our cities. The first five ambulances will be operational in Gurugram starting today. As we expand, users will soon have the option to book a Basic Life Support (BLS) ambulance through the Blinkit app.”

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