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How China fudges its employment figures

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How China fudges its employment figures

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]While its minister has warned of half-a-million job cuts in the manufacturing sector, his promise of rehabilitating these workers in the service sector seems hollow as the figures available simply do not add up

By Sujit Bhar

Here are two news items on the employment scenario in China. Together they present an interesting mosaic on the employment scenario in China.

The first, reported by the Associated Press and (AP) carried by US’ leading daily USA Today, says that Chinese labour minister Yin Weimin said at a press briefing in Beijing that China will cut 500,000 more steel and coal jobs this year “to reduce excess production capacity.”

This was purportedly in reaction to complains in international trading circles of the dumping of cheap Chinese products, wreaking havoc with price structures and weights on commodity exchanges.

The second, issued by news agency IANS on March 2, also from Beijing, and also quoting the same minister, Yin Weimin, talks about how China had “created over 13 million urban jobs for four consecutive years, despite downward pressure and industrial restructuring in the Chinese economy.” This piece of information was provided by the minister to the People’s Daily Online.

Trying to understand Chinese double-speak is like studying Egyptian hieroglyphics, where every gesture and every picture could have many meanings. 

Let us try to make sense of these two.

The bad news first.

AP talks about China’s huge effort to shrink its bloated industries including steel, coal, cement, aluminium and glass. It is a known fact that China had more installed capacity than even the worldwide demand. Aided by subsidies, these conglomerates (mostly government-owned or partly state-owned) pushed goods across the oceans, dumping cheap products in western countries and also India, taking advantage of WTO loopholes.

With the arrival of President Donald Trump on the American scenario, the clamour for restricting Chinese supplies has grown. Europe, too, has been up in arms to protect local industries. This has resulted in massive job cuts. The minister had said at the press conference that those laid off will get government help to find other jobs, start companies or retire.

Yin was quotes as saying: “This year, to reduce excess capacity, we need to make accommodation for 500,000 workers.” This, in plain speak, means half a million will be sacked.

Last year 726,000 workers lost their jobs in the same sector.

The minister said that this was 40 percent of the 1.8 million jobs that were to go. While the minister said that they too were provided help to restructure their lives and finances, several reports elsewhere have narrated how these workers simply had to return home to their farms, jobless, hopeless.

Now the supposed good news.

Yin has reportedly said that the “unemployment rate in Chinese cities was relatively low over the past four years.” How has he arrived at such a conclusion? He talks about four factors.

The first is the most stupendous, contradicting all major studies around the world. This is about what Yin calls “sustained economic development”. He talks about last fiscal where China’s GDP growth was 6.7 per cent, pushing the country’s GDP to $10.8 trillion.

However doubtful the first assumption (or clarification) may be, the second lets you peek into the truth. He talks about constant restructuring of industry, to optimise each sector. What does that mean? Yin reveals in his next statement.  “Tertiary industry can create on average 20 per cent more jobs than the secondary industry,” he has said.

He pointed out that “last year, the tertiary industry’s contribution to China’s GDP was as high as 51.6 per cent, 11.8 percent higher than that of the secondary industry.”

We need to talk about this in further detail, but the third factor Yin mentioned about was “reform.” This actually elaborates on the second factor, as we will come to know in a while.

Regarding reform, the minister talked about administrative reforms in government and “business reforms”, “cultivating mass entrepreneurship and innovation.”

So what manner of number crunching has the ministry engaged in while explaining two apparently disparate industry factors?

To get to the bottom, we need to understand the nature of “tertiary industry”.

Tertiary industry, as per definition, is “industry that provides services rather than producing goods, or these industries considered as a group.”

China has been, as announced, moving more towards the service sector, trying to reduce its dependence on the manufacturing sector. But how does that explain the employment scenario?

The following pie chart shows how the Chinese depict their stride into the service sector world (2013):

One would expect this to be good news, till one studies this Slate.com graph on the employment in the different sectors in 2010.Basically the “reform” is moving workers out of the manufacturing sector and retraining them for the service sector. The numbers don’t add up, sadly. The claims are as hollow as the overall system in China is. For the service sector to absorb all excesses in the manufacturing sector there has to be massive domestic demand (in India, the GDP is spurred by a huge 56 percent domestic demand).

China’s export-driven economy has not been able to adjust as quickly as it would have wanted. Only a small percentage of those laid off are being re-absorbed, also at lower salaries. How that provides such a boost to the overall GDP is a mystery.

Double-speak is a nature of Chinese diplomacy. Reading between the lines should be a nature we should develop in understanding Chinese diplomats.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

Delhivery to acquire Ecom Express for Rs 1,407 crore

The acquisition is pending approval from the Competition Commission of India and, once completed, Ecom Express will become a subsidiary of Delhivery.

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Delhivery, a third-party logistics company, has announced its decision to acquire Ecom Express Limited for ₹1,407 crore. The company’s board approved the acquisition of approximately 99.4% of Ecom Express shares during a meeting held on April 5, 2025.

In an official exchange filing, Delhivery stated: “We wish to inform you that the board of directors of Delhivery Limited at its meeting held today has considered and approved the acquisition of shares equivalent to at least 99.4% of the issued and paid-up share capital of Ecom Express Limited. The purchase consideration will not exceed ₹1,407 crore.”

The acquisition is pending approval from the Competition Commission of India and, once completed, Ecom Express will become a subsidiary of Delhivery.

Sahil Barua, Managing Director and CEO of Delhivery, commented on the acquisition, stating, “The Indian economy requires continuous improvements in cost efficiency, speed, and reach of logistics. We believe this acquisition will enable us to serve the customers of both companies more effectively.”

Previously, Ecom Express faced challenges, including the layoff of around 500 employees in February and the suspension of its initial public offering (IPO) plans as part of cost-cutting measures. The company’s expenses slightly increased to ₹2,921.5 crore in FY24 from ₹2,902.8 crore in FY23, while revenue grew by 2.2% to ₹2,609.2 crore. Notably, losses decreased to ₹255.8 crore compared to ₹428.1 crore the previous year.

Ecom Express, which delivered goods to over 27,000 pin codes, had approximately 15,600 employees and associates. The company previously planned to go public, but market volatility led to a pause in those efforts.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) had granted approval for the IPO in December, which remains valid until later this year. Ecom Express filed papers in August to raise ₹2,600 crore through the IPO, involving a combination of fresh shares and an offer-for-sale.

In conjunction with this news, Delhivery recently launched a Rapid Commerce service, designed for sub-2-hour deliveries to enhance customer experience for direct-to-consumer brands and e-commerce platforms.

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Cricket news

Video of Bill Gates enjoying Vada Pav with Sachin Tendulkar during Mumbai visit goes viral

Gates, currently touring India, has been making waves with high-profile engagements. Earlier this week, he touched down in New Delhi, where he held discussions with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and several Union ministers.

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Microsoft co-founder and philanthropist Bill Gates delighted his followers by posting an Instagram video featuring Indian cricket icon Sachin Tendulkar, with the playful caption, “A snack break before we get to work.” The brief clip captures the duo relishing Mumbai’s beloved street food, vada pav, whilst perched on a bench, ending with a teasing “Serving soon” message splashed across the screen.

Gates, currently touring India, has been making waves with high-profile engagements. Earlier this week, he touched down in New Delhi, where he held discussions with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and several Union ministers. His itinerary then brought him to Mumbai, where he met Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis. The tech titan’s visit underscores his ongoing fascination with India’s innovative spirit, a theme he expanded upon in a recent blog post.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DHbYDGXJnxq/?utm_source=ig_web_button_share_sheet

Writing on his personal site, Gates reflected on the trip’s impact: “I came away with fresh perspectives because India is brimming with clever, driven individuals addressing some of the globe’s toughest challenges in ingenious ways.” His words echo sentiments he shared ahead of the visit, when he praised Odisha’s farmers for leveraging artificial intelligence to boost agricultural outcomes—a story that’s garnered attention for its blend of tradition and technology.

The vada pav moment with Tendulkar, a national treasure, adds a light-hearted touch to Gates’s packed schedule. It’s not just a snack break; it hints at a potential collaboration, though details remain under wraps. For Indian fans, seeing two legends—one from tech, the other from cricket—share a casual bite is a rare treat, blending global influence with local flavour.

As Gates continues his journey, his interactions spotlight India’s dual role as a hub of innovation and a cultural powerhouse. Whether it’s AI-driven farming or a street-side snack with a sporting hero, his visit is proving to be a feast of ideas—and vada pav.

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Latest business news

Manappuram Finance shares hit record high after Bain Capital announces $508 million stake deal

Shares of Manappuram Finance surged to an all-time high after Bain Capital announced plans to acquire an 18% stake in the gold loan provider.

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Manappuram Finance shares rise after Bain Capital deal

India’s gold loan provider Manappuram Finance saw its shares soar to an all-time high on Friday after Bain Capital revealed plans to invest $508 million for an 18% stake in the company. The move, analysts say, brings clarity to Manappuram’s management succession strategy and paves the way for stronger strategic control.

Bain Capital, a U.S.-based private equity firm, will subscribe to Manappuram’s shares and warrants at Rs 236 per share — a 9% premium over Thursday’s closing price of Rs 217.5. Following the transaction, Bain will jointly control the company along with other key stakeholders, referred to as ‘promoters’ under Indian regulations.

As of 12:05 p.m. IST on Friday, Manappuram’s shares surged by as much as 6.3% to Rs 231.08, marking their highest level on record.

Founder to step back as Bain gains influence

Founder and CEO V.P. Nandakumar, who has led the company for nearly four decades, will transition to the role of non-executive chairman once the investment is finalized. With Bain Capital now having rights to influence strategic decisions and appoint key roles including the CEO, analysts at Jefferies and CLSA have responded positively.

CLSA noted that the potential for re-rating of Manappuram’s stock is strong as new leadership takes over. Jefferies and CLSA have both raised their target prices by 14.6% and 20%, respectively, maintaining bullish ratings of “buy” and “outperform.”

Deal to boost gold loan business, offset microfinance losses

The deal is expected to close in the upcoming financial year and is likely to accelerate growth in the company’s gold loan segment, which currently contributes around 75% of its total revenue. With gold prices at historic highs, the demand for gold-backed loans remains robust.

Additionally, analysts expect part of the capital raised through the deal may be used to cushion the losses in Manappuram’s microfinance division. The company confirmed that Asirvad Micro Finance, its microfinance subsidiary, will withdraw its IPO draft filing amid changing market conditions and regulatory scrutiny.

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