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How China fudges its employment figures

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How China fudges its employment figures

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]While its minister has warned of half-a-million job cuts in the manufacturing sector, his promise of rehabilitating these workers in the service sector seems hollow as the figures available simply do not add up

By Sujit Bhar

Here are two news items on the employment scenario in China. Together they present an interesting mosaic on the employment scenario in China.

The first, reported by the Associated Press and (AP) carried by US’ leading daily USA Today, says that Chinese labour minister Yin Weimin said at a press briefing in Beijing that China will cut 500,000 more steel and coal jobs this year “to reduce excess production capacity.”

This was purportedly in reaction to complains in international trading circles of the dumping of cheap Chinese products, wreaking havoc with price structures and weights on commodity exchanges.

The second, issued by news agency IANS on March 2, also from Beijing, and also quoting the same minister, Yin Weimin, talks about how China had “created over 13 million urban jobs for four consecutive years, despite downward pressure and industrial restructuring in the Chinese economy.” This piece of information was provided by the minister to the People’s Daily Online.

Trying to understand Chinese double-speak is like studying Egyptian hieroglyphics, where every gesture and every picture could have many meanings. 

Let us try to make sense of these two.

The bad news first.

AP talks about China’s huge effort to shrink its bloated industries including steel, coal, cement, aluminium and glass. It is a known fact that China had more installed capacity than even the worldwide demand. Aided by subsidies, these conglomerates (mostly government-owned or partly state-owned) pushed goods across the oceans, dumping cheap products in western countries and also India, taking advantage of WTO loopholes.

With the arrival of President Donald Trump on the American scenario, the clamour for restricting Chinese supplies has grown. Europe, too, has been up in arms to protect local industries. This has resulted in massive job cuts. The minister had said at the press conference that those laid off will get government help to find other jobs, start companies or retire.

Yin was quotes as saying: “This year, to reduce excess capacity, we need to make accommodation for 500,000 workers.” This, in plain speak, means half a million will be sacked.

Last year 726,000 workers lost their jobs in the same sector.

The minister said that this was 40 percent of the 1.8 million jobs that were to go. While the minister said that they too were provided help to restructure their lives and finances, several reports elsewhere have narrated how these workers simply had to return home to their farms, jobless, hopeless.

Now the supposed good news.

Yin has reportedly said that the “unemployment rate in Chinese cities was relatively low over the past four years.” How has he arrived at such a conclusion? He talks about four factors.

The first is the most stupendous, contradicting all major studies around the world. This is about what Yin calls “sustained economic development”. He talks about last fiscal where China’s GDP growth was 6.7 per cent, pushing the country’s GDP to $10.8 trillion.

However doubtful the first assumption (or clarification) may be, the second lets you peek into the truth. He talks about constant restructuring of industry, to optimise each sector. What does that mean? Yin reveals in his next statement.  “Tertiary industry can create on average 20 per cent more jobs than the secondary industry,” he has said.

He pointed out that “last year, the tertiary industry’s contribution to China’s GDP was as high as 51.6 per cent, 11.8 percent higher than that of the secondary industry.”

We need to talk about this in further detail, but the third factor Yin mentioned about was “reform.” This actually elaborates on the second factor, as we will come to know in a while.

Regarding reform, the minister talked about administrative reforms in government and “business reforms”, “cultivating mass entrepreneurship and innovation.”

So what manner of number crunching has the ministry engaged in while explaining two apparently disparate industry factors?

To get to the bottom, we need to understand the nature of “tertiary industry”.

Tertiary industry, as per definition, is “industry that provides services rather than producing goods, or these industries considered as a group.”

China has been, as announced, moving more towards the service sector, trying to reduce its dependence on the manufacturing sector. But how does that explain the employment scenario?

The following pie chart shows how the Chinese depict their stride into the service sector world (2013):

One would expect this to be good news, till one studies this Slate.com graph on the employment in the different sectors in 2010.Basically the “reform” is moving workers out of the manufacturing sector and retraining them for the service sector. The numbers don’t add up, sadly. The claims are as hollow as the overall system in China is. For the service sector to absorb all excesses in the manufacturing sector there has to be massive domestic demand (in India, the GDP is spurred by a huge 56 percent domestic demand).

China’s export-driven economy has not been able to adjust as quickly as it would have wanted. Only a small percentage of those laid off are being re-absorbed, also at lower salaries. How that provides such a boost to the overall GDP is a mystery.

Double-speak is a nature of Chinese diplomacy. Reading between the lines should be a nature we should develop in understanding Chinese diplomats.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Zomato introduces Food Rescue feature

“We don’t encourage order cancellation at Zomato, because it leads to a tremendous amount of food wastage,” he said.

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Zomato has introduced a new feature called Food Rescue to minimise food wastage, announced the food delivery platform CEO Deepinder Goyal on Sunday.

Announcing the new feature on X, Goyal said the decision, to introduce the new feature, was taken to prevent the tremendous amount of food wastage due to order cancellation on the platform.

Committed to minimising food wastage, the Zomato boss said: “We don’t encourage order cancellation at Zomato, because it leads to a tremendous amount of food wastage.”

Goyal said despite having stringent policies, and a no-refund policy for cancellations, more than 4 lakh perfectly good orders get cancelled, for various reasons by customers.

He said the top concern for the online food delivery platform, the restaurant industry, and even the customers who cancel these orders, is to somehow save the food from going to waste.

With the launch of the new feature, Food Rescue, cancelled orders will now pop up for nearby customers, who can grab them at an unbeatable price, in their original untampered packaging, and receive them in just minutes.

According to Zomato, the cancelled order will pop up on the app for customers within a 3 km radius of the delivery partner carrying the order. To ensure freshness, the option to claim will only be available for a few minutes.

The online food delivery platform will not keep any proceeds except the required government taxes and the amount paid by the new customer will be shared with the original customer (if they made payment online) and with the restaurant partner.

Orders containing items sensitive to distances or temperature such as ice creams, shakes, smoothies, and certain perishable items, will not be eligible for Food Rescue.

Restaurant partners will continue to receive compensation for the original cancelled order, plus a portion of the amount paid by the new customer if the order is claimed, the company said. “Most restaurants have opted in for this feature, and can opt of it easily whenever they want, directly from their control panels,” it added.

The delivery partners will be compensated fully for the entire trip, from the initial pickup to the final drop-off at the new customer’s location, it said.

Food Rescue will show up on the customers’ home page automatically if there’s a cancelled order available for them to grab. The Customers have to refresh the home page to check for any newly available orders which need to be rescued.

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Adani, Torrent compete to purchase Gujarat Titans from CVC Capital

The probable sale of the Gujarat Titans, with the lock-in period coming to a close, will therefore be a defining moment in the changing face of IPL investments.

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The Adani Group and Torrent Group are currently negotiating a deal with private equity firm CVC Capital Partners to offload a controlling stake in the Indian Premier League franchise Gujarat Titans. According to sources, close to the development, reports say CVC Capital Partners will be looking to sell a majority interest while retaining a minority share in the franchise.

This becomes important because it is aligned with the end of the lock-in period by the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI), which restricts any new teams from selling stakes until February 2025. The three-year-old franchise Gujarat Titans is reportedly worth $1 billion to $1.5 billion. CVC Capital Partners had paid ₹5,625 crore for the franchise in 2021.

A source close to the development pointed out that IPL franchises have attracted many investors’ interest since the league has proved an asset with a good reputation for money-making capabilities and cash flows. This growing interest of investors embodies the financial value and stability that come with the IPL franchises.

Gautam Adani, who owns teams in the Women’s Premier League and UAE-based International League T20, is understood to be one of the serious buyers. In 2023, Adani’s group won the Ahmedabad franchise in the WPL with a bid of Rs1,289 crore, the highest offer. His interests in this potential deal signal his commitment to expanding his footprint in the cricketing world.

Arvinder Singh, COO of Gujarat Titans, exuded confidence in the financial future of the franchise. He said the team was confident of turning profitable in the next media rights cycle, referring to even the original ten IPL franchises that took four to five years to turn profitable. He added confidently that the Gujarat Titans would not only turn profitable but significantly enhance in brand value.
 
This surging interest of investors in it is evidence of the growing financial attractiveness of IPL franchises, driven by healthy revenue streams and an increasing global footprint. The probable sale of the Gujarat Titans, with the lock-in period coming to a close, will therefore be a defining moment in the changing face of IPL investments.

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PayTm share price slips 2 per cent over SEBI warning

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Paytm

The share price of PayTm fell by nearly 2 per cent on Tuesday following a warning from the the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI).

PayTm’s parent One 97 Communication had got SEBI’s administrative warning letter on some transactions involving the PayTm Payments Bank during fiscal year 2021-2022. The bourses reacted strongly leading to PayTm shares falling by 1.88% to Rs 460.80 per share on the Bombay Stock Exchange.

SEBI said it had noted the violation with concern and said these matters are being viewed very seriously. The regulator warned the company to exercise caution going forward and improve compliance to rules to prevent similar incidents in the future.

The markets regulator added that failure to comply with rules may force it to invoke enforcement actions as per the law.

In its response to SEBI, PayTm said in a media release that it has always followed listing regulations, as well as any change to these rules over time. The company said it would keep up its commitment to maintain and follow high standards of compliance. Paytm said it intends to provide an adequate response to SEBI on this matter.

PayTm said it has always followed Regulation 23 along with Regulation 4(1)(h) of the SEBI Listing Regulations, without including any change made to these rules over time. Paytm added that the letter from  SEBI has no influence on its finances, operations or other activities in any way.

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