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Economic Survey projects 7 per cent growth rate for financial year 2019-20

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Economic Survey projects 7 per cent growth rate for financial year 2019-20

The Economic Survey, tabled in Parliament today (Thursday, July 4) by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman has projected a 7 per cent growth rate for GDP (gross domestic product) in the 2019-20 financial year.

This indicates a higher than the estimated 6.8 per cent growth rate for the previous year ended March 31. The Economic Survey cited investment rate picking up in FY20 on higher credit growth and improved demand as the factors for the higher growth rate.

The projected growth rate could help India overtake China and regain the status of world’s fastest-growing major economy.

Prepared by Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) Krishnamurthy Subramanian, today’s Economic Survey is the first by the re-elected Narendra Modi government. The release of Economic Survey 2018-19 comes a day ahead of the presentation of Union Budget in Parliament.

“Given the macro-economic situation and the structural reforms being undertaken by the government, the economy is projected to grow at 7% in 2019-20. Growth in investment, which had slowed down for many years, has bottomed out and has started to recover since 2017-18,” the Survey said.

Growth is expected to pick up in 2019-20 as macroeconomic conditions continue to be stable while structural reforms initiated in the previous few years are continuing on course. The survey said India maintained its macro-economic stability by containing inflation within 4% and by maintaining a manageable current account deficit to GDP ratio. “The current account deficit to GDP was higher in 2018-19 as compared to 2017-18, primarily due to higher oil prices, which were about $14/barrel higher in 2018-19 vis-à-vis the previous year. However, the CAD started to narrow in the third quarter of the year,” it added.

It also highlighted that lower global oil prices are expected to decline in FY20. Lower global growth and increased uncertainty over trade tension may hit exports, it added.

Sharing his view on the survey, Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted: “The Economic Survey 2019 outlines a vision to achieve a $5 trillion economy. It also depicts the gains from advancement in the social sector, adoption of technology and energy security.”

CEA Subramanian said: “Our team has put in a lot of effort with a lot of dedication. I hope results are good, and we are able to contribute to the ideas for the economy.”

This year’s survey brings “an effective minimum wage policy that targets the vulnerable bottom rung of wage earners can help in driving up aggregate demand and building and strengthening the middle class,” he added.

In a series of tweets, CEA Subramanian stated that the survey “is inspired by (Mahatma) Gandhiji’s Talisman: ‘…Recall the face of the poorest man [woman], and ask yourself, if the step you contemplate is going to be of any use to him [her].’

He also mentioned that “one of the biggest hurdles to $5 trillion economy is poor enforcement of contracts and dispute resolution. Steps to speed up legal process should be top priority.”

He added that the survey “is imbued by the spirit ‘blue sky thinking’ in thinking about the appropriate economic model for India. This is reflected in the sky blue cover of the survey.”

“The theme of the survey – ‘Shifting Gears’ – is intended to achieve a sustained growth rate of 8 per cent. Using the learning from the Global Financial Crisis, the Survey departs from traditional thinking to view the economy in either a vicious or a virtuous cycle,” said Subramanian. “The Survey makes a sincere effort to live up to the expectation of being an indispensable guide for following, understanding and thinking about the Indian economy.”

Rural wages growth seems to have bottomed out and has started to increase since mid-2018. Further growth in rural wages should help spur rural demand, according to the Economic Survey.

Investment rate, which was declining from 2011-12, seems to have bottomed out and is expected to pick up in the year 2019-20 on the back of higher credit growth, said the Economic Survey.

The government stood by its path of fiscal consolidation in financial year 2018-19, stated the Economic Survey, which expects the general fiscal deficit at 5.8 per cent in 2018-19 as against 6.4 per cent in 2017-18.

The projections come after some disheartening trends earlier this year. In January-March, annual growth slumped to 5.8 per cent, the slowest pace in 20 quarters. Growth for the financial year that ended in March was 6.8 per cent, also a five-year low, and indicators such as plummeting industrial output and automobile sales have stoked fears of a deeper slowdown.

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Union Budget 2026 highlights: Nirmala Sitharaman Raises Capex to Rs 12.2 Lakh Cr, West Bengal Gets Major Allocation

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is presenting the Union Budget 2026 in Parliament today. Follow this space for live updates, key announcements, and policy insights.

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Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman arrives to present Union Budget 2026

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will shortly present the Union Budget 2026 in the Lok Sabha, marking her ninth consecutive Budget. The annual financial statement is expected to outline the government’s policy priorities, reform agenda and spending plans for the coming year. Stay tuned for live updates, key announcements and immediate reactions as the Budget speech unfolds.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman tabled her ninth Union Budget today, beginning her speech at 11 am.

Nirmala Sitharaman is set to present her ninth Union Budget today, with the finance minister scheduled to begin her speech at 11 am.

Budget 2026 live updates: Presenting the Union Budget for 2026–27, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the occasion coincided with Magh Purnima and the birth anniversary of Guru Ravidas. She noted that over the past 12 years, India’s economic journey has been defined by stability, fiscal discipline, sustained growth and moderate inflation.

The budgeted fiscal deficit for fiscal 2026 is estimated at 4.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP)

Planned capital expenditure this fiscal year Rs 11.2 lakh crore

Rare earth corrdiors in Odisha and Kerala

Hi-tech tool rooms to be set up by PSUs

Construction equipment scheme to be launched

Container manufacturing scheme for Rs 10,000 crore over 5 years

Rs 10,000 crore SME Growth Fund

Semi-conductor mission to get Rs 40,000 crore

Rs 12.2 lakh crores for infrastructure development

Dedicated RITES to repurpose land of Central PSUs

20 new waterways over next 5 years to be connected

7 high-speed corridors on rail

High-level committee on banking for next phase of Viksit Bharat

Capital expenditure hike of to ₹12.2 lakh crore in Budget 2026, with West Bengal receiving a significant share of allocations.

Mahatma Gandhi Gram Swaraj Initiative aimed at boosting the khadi, handloom, and handicrafts sectors.

High-speed rail corridors: Mumbai-Pune, Pune-Bengaluru, Hyderabad-Bengaluru, Chennai-Bengaluru, Delhi-Varanasi, Varanasi-Siliguri, Pune-Hyderabad

Five university campuses to be established near industrial corridors

Lakpati Didi program expanded in Budget 2026 to reach more beneficiaries across India.

Fiscal deficit for FY26 revised to 4.4%; Budget Estimate for FY27 set at 4.3%.

TCS on overseas tour packages cut to 2% to ease travel costs

Tax holiday to foreign companies that provide cloud services by setting up data centres in India till 2047

17 cancer drugs exempted from import duties

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Union budget 2026 to be presented on Sunday with special trading session

The Union Budget 2026 will be presented on a Sunday for the first time in over two decades, with NSE and BSE announcing special trading sessions for the day.

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Nirmala Sitharaman

For the first time in more than two decades, the Union Budget will be presented on a Sunday. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is scheduled to table the Union Budget for 2026 in the Lok Sabha on February 1 at 11 am, even as the day is usually observed as a holiday for government offices and financial markets.

February 1 falls on a Sunday this year, raising questions about market operations and investor response. To ensure uninterrupted trading and immediate market reaction to budget announcements, stock exchanges have announced special arrangements for the day.

Markets to remain open on budget day

Both the National Stock Exchange and the Bombay Stock Exchange have confirmed that markets will remain open on February 1. The NSE has announced a special trading session, with the pre-open market scheduled from 9 am to 9:08 am, followed by normal trading hours from 9:15 am to 3:30 pm.

The BSE has also declared the day a special trading day, with regular market hours applicable. Trading is expected to continue across equity, derivatives, and futures and options segments.

What the Sunday budget means for investors

A weekend budget presentation is seen as offering certain advantages for market participants. With trading active on the same day, investors will be able to respond to policy announcements immediately rather than waiting for the next working day.

The Sunday timing also gives investors, analysts, and financial institutions additional time to go through detailed proposals, including tax changes, fiscal deficit targets, and sector-wise allocations. The extended window for analysis may help reduce sharp, headline-driven reactions and encourage more informed decision-making.

With fewer competing developments on a non-working day, budget announcements are also expected to receive more focused attention from markets and stakeholders.

Parliamentary schedule and key milestones

The Economic Survey is expected to be tabled on January 29, ahead of the budget presentation. The Budget Session of Parliament began on January 28 with the President’s address to a joint sitting of the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha.

The upcoming budget will mark Nirmala Sitharaman’s ninth consecutive Union Budget. It will also be India’s 80th budget since Independence. Since 2017, Union Budgets have been presented at 11 am on February 1, following a timing change introduced during the tenure of former finance minister Arun Jaitley.

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Modi says right time to invest in Indian shipping sector; meets global CEOs

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PM Narendra Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday exhorted global investors to take bets on the Indian shipping sector, pointing out that this is the “right time” for such a move.

The Prime Minister also met a select chief executives of global majors, including DP World and APM, at a specially convened meeting on the sidelines of the India Maritime Week 2025 held here.

“For all of you hailing from different countries, this is the right time to work in the Indian shipping sector and also expand (your presence),” Modi said during a public address before the closed-door meeting with CEOs.

Modi listed several targets being chased by India in the maritime sector over the next few years, and underlined the importance of the global community in the same.

“You all are an important partner who will help us achieve all our aims. We welcome your ideas, innovations and investments,” Modi said.

He said that India allows 100 per cent foreign direct investment in the shipping and ports sector, and also provides incentives under the “Make In India, and Make For The World” vision.

Addressing an audience, including leaders of various companies, the Prime Minister affirmed India’s commitment to strengthening the supply chain resilience at a global level.

He also said that India is engaged in creating world-class mega ports, and cited the work undertaken on the Vadhavan Port to the north of the financial capital, which entered the top-10 firms in the world on the first day.

The government is also looking to grow the capacity at 12 major ports by four times and increase India’s share in containerised cargo at the global level.

Later, Modi held a meeting with top CEOs of shipping sector companies from across the world.

As per people in the know, he met AP Moller-Maersk Chairman Robert Maersk Uggla, DP World Group Chairman Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, Mediterranean Shipping Company Chief Executive Soren Toft, Adani Ports and SEZ Managing Director Karan Adani and French company CMA-CGM’s Senior Vice President Ludovic Renou.

The participation from over 85 countries in the IMW sends a strong message, Modi said, noting the presence of CEOs of major shipping giants, startups, policymakers, and innovators at the event.

The Prime Minister also thanked Port of Singapore (PSA) for the nearly Rs 8,000 crore investment in the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Authority’s fourth terminal, pointing out that this is also the largest FDI in the port sector in India.

Modi said more than 150 new initiatives have been launched under the ‘Maritime India Vision’, resulting in nearly doubling the capacity of major ports, a substantial reduction in turnaround time, and a new momentum in cruise tourism.

—PTI

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