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Floundering economy: over 1.1 crore jobs lost, investments in new projects at new low

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Floundering economy: over 1.1 crore jobs lost, investments in new projects at new low

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Over 1.1 crore jobs were lost in 2018, while investments in new projects in the bygone year fell to the lowest level in the last fourteen years, say media reports citing data from the Centre For Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), a think tank that tracks business and economic data.

Reflecting a dismal ground reality, these critical reports – ‘unflattering’ would be a mild term – knock the bottom out of the bluster of Narendra Modi government’s campaign claiming to take India and Indians to new heights and blaming Congress and other parties for all that is wrong in the country.

On job scenario, the CMIE analysis report, according to Business Today, showed that the number of unemployed has been steadily increasing in the country. The number of employed recorded in December 2018 was at 397 million, which is 10.9 million less than the figure of 407.9 million seen a year ago at the end of December 2017.

While people in both rural and urban India have been hit, most of the jobs losses were reported from former region. “An estimated 9.1 million jobs were lost in rural India while the loss in urban India was 1.8 million jobs. Rural India accounts for two-thirds of India’s population, but it accounted for 84 per cent of the job losses,” the report stated.

People in the 40-59 years age groups kept their jobs, while all other age groups saw jobs shrinking, the report said.

Around 3.7 million salaried employees lost jobs in 2018.

It also showed that individuals belonging to vulnerable groups were the worst hit by job losses in 2018.

Job losses were concentrated among the uneducated, as well as wage labourers, agricultural labourers and small traders. The latter three were also the worst affected in terms of employment during the aftermath of demonetisation.

Women were significantly impacted by job losses during 2018, where out of the 11 million jobs lost, women accounted for 8.8 million jobs whereas men lost only 2.2 million jobs. Around 6.5 million rural women lost their jobs, whereas the figure for urban women was at 2.3 million. Men on the other hand were not as affected by the job losses. Urban men gained 5,00,000 jobs, whereas rural men lost 2.3 million jobs, the CMIE report said.

“So, the break-down of employment statistics by the various attributes of respondents discussed above tells us that a person who lost the job in 2018 mostly fits a profile like – is a woman, particularly a woman in rural India, is uneducated and is engaged as a wage labourer or a farm labourer or is a small-scale trader and is aged either less than 40 years or more than 60 years,” the report said.

“India’s unemployment rate shot up to 7.4 percent in December 2018. This is the highest unemployment rate we’ve seen in 15 months. The rate has increased sharply from the 6.6 per cent clocked in November,” the report said.

While employment estimates have been volatile between September and December, when month-over-month employment estimates have increased or declined by 5-7 million, the overall trend has shown a steep decline. The marginal decline seen in November was possibly an aberration in a trend that indicates towards a steady decline in jobs.

The report stated that this analysis, however, is only a preliminary insight into the job scenario during the months of September to December, and are bound to have a margin for error which will be eliminated in further studies over next couple of months.

Another CMIE analysis said investments in the just-ended December quarter fell to a 14-year-low. Indian companies announced new projects worth Rs 1 trillion in the December quarter, 53% lower than what was announced in September quarter, and 55% lower than the year-ago period.

Project additions, measured by total private and public investments in the country, fell in the quarter to Rs1.15 lakh crore (around $16.5 billion), compared to over Rs 2.23 lakh crore in the same period last year.

Though this is a 14-year low, the CMIE said since some of the data comes with a lag, it is likely to be revised upwards slightly next month to possibly around Rs1.40 lakh crore – still the lowest in over a decade, reported Quartz.

Tepid demand, a gradual decline in investments, and a changing macroeconomic environment have drawn down fresh investments. “Capacity utilisation has been below 75%, lower than what is required to spur new investments. Overall, there had been a steady decline in the past three years which ends up adding up to be a lot,” Mahesh Vyas, CEO of CMIE, told Quartz.

Moreover, while Modi’s electoral promise in 2014 included kick-starting stalled projects, there has been little respite on that front. In the quarter ended Dec. 31, 2018, the value of stalled projects shot up to Rs 3.07 lakh crore, the second highest in the current government’s tenure.

The private sector stalling rate is hovering near its record high at 24%, data shows. The overall stalling rate is lower at 11%, partly because of the recent improvement in stalling rates in public sector projects, said LiveMint about the CMIE report.

The power and manufacturing sectors remained the worst affected by stalling. The power sector accounted for 35.4% of all stalled projects, while manufacturing accounted for 29.2%. The biggest reasons for stalling are lack of funds, problems with fuel and raw material, and unfavourable market conditions. Among the major reasons for stalling, ‘lack of funds’ has emerged as the biggest reason in recent quarters, suggesting that under-financed banks and stressed corporations are finding it increasingly difficult to finance their projects.

An unfavourable business environment, low economic demand, and delay in getting clearances, usually end up delaying a project. And this is likely to continue this year. “Capex (capital expenditure) utilisation is still low, demand is weak, and price of farm products are low. Even the government has very little fiscal space to fill in the gap. Moreover, there is uncertainty in the political climate ahead of the 2019 elections which usually does not help in boosting investments,” said Vyas.

The sequential decline in capex announcements was led by a sharp decline in new project announcements by the private sector. New private sector projects fell 62% in the just-ended December quarter compared with the September quarter, and 64% compared with the December quarter of FY18.

New public sector projects also declined compared with the September quarter of FY19. Fresh investment announcements in the public sector fell 37% on quarter and 41% on year to Rs 50,604 crore—the lowest level since December 2004.

The decline in fresh investments was across the board, with all major sectors witnessing a fall.

Yet, there are some pockets of activity in the economy, said the report. Investments in the transportation and aviation sectors, for instance, have been pouring in. “These are counter-cyclical in nature and government-driven investments into roads have been happening. Investments have also been happening into airlines which has given a boost to the entire segment,” added Vyas.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

Why Hindenburg Research is shutting down: A personal note from the founder

Anderson emphasised that his choice was not prompted by any single factor. There are no external threats, health concerns, or urgent issues necessitating this decision. Instead, he described it as a natural conclusion to a significant chapter in his life.

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Nate Anderson, the founder of Hindenburg Research, has decided to shut down his short-selling venture, which has famously exposed alleged frauds amounting to billions and sent shockwaves through major corporations. From igniting a $150 billion crisis for the Adani Group to taking down giants like Nikola and Eros International, Hindenburg has become synonymous with financial scrutiny and controversy depending on one’s perspective.

In a comprehensive blog post titled “Personal Note From Our Founder,” Anderson revealed his decision, stating that the firm has fulfilled its mission and that it is time to move forward. “As I’ve shared with family, friends, and our team since late last year, I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research,” he wrote.

Anderson emphasised that his choice was not prompted by any single factor. There are no external threats, health concerns, or urgent issues necessitating this decision. Instead, he described it as a natural conclusion to a significant chapter in his life.

This announcement follows Hindenburg’s completion of its final investigations into alleged financial fraud, which have been submitted to regulators. “As of the last Ponzi cases we just completed and are sharing with regulators, that day is today,” Anderson noted.

Reflecting on his career, he acknowledged that his intense dedication to the firm had come at the expense of other life areas. Initially motivated by a desire to prove himself, he ultimately began to view Hindenburg Research as just one of many chapters in his life.

In the upcoming six months, Anderson plans to create and share content, including materials and videos, to transparently illustrate the firm’s investigative techniques. He hopes this will inspire others to pursue similar efforts.

Hindenburg Research operated with a small but committed team of 11 members. Anderson praised their dedication to precise, evidence-based reporting and their courage in uncovering financial fraud. His team’s efforts have significantly influenced the landscape of financial accountability, with nearly 100 individuals facing civil or criminal charges partially attributable to their investigations.

“Nearly 100 individuals have been charged civilly or criminally by regulators, at least in part due to our work, including billionaires and oligarchs. We shook some empires that we felt needed shaking,” Anderson stated.

Hindenburg garnered international attention in January 2023 when it published a report alleging fraud and stock manipulation by the Adani Group. This report triggered a massive selloff in Adani’s stock, erasing over $100 billion from Gautam Adani’s personal wealth and causing the market capitalization of 10 Adani Group companies to plummet from ₹19.19 lakh crore on January 24, 2023, to below ₹7 lakh crore by February 27.

Although Adani stocks eventually recovered, the Supreme Court later noted that allegations made by organizations like Hindenburg, without proper verification, cannot be considered valid evidence. Previously, Hindenburg’s investigations included exposing Nikola Corporation in 2020 for fraud, which resulted in the resignation of founder Trevor Milton.

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India News

Sensex sheds 1,049 points, Nifty drops below 23,100

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Sensex falls 1,049 points, Nifty slips below 23,100 amid market downturn

The Indian stock market faced another day of sharp declines on January 13, as bearish sentiments tightened their grip for the fourth consecutive session. Weak global cues, a surge in crude oil prices to a three-month high, and reduced expectations of a U.S. rate cut in 2025 contributed to the downward spiral.

At the close of trading, the Sensex plunged 1,048.90 points or 1.36% to settle at 76,330.01. The Nifty also fell significantly, shedding 345.55 points or 1.47% to close at 23,085.95.

Sectoral impact

All sectoral indices ended the session in the red. The realty index was the worst hit, slumping by 6.7%. Other sectors, including oil & gas, power, PSU, metal, and media, recorded losses in the range of 3-4%.

This broad-based sell-off saw investors’ wealth take a major hit. The market capitalization of BSE-listed companies dropped sharply by Rs 12.39 lakh crore, falling to Rs 417.28 lakh crore from Rs 429.67 lakh crore in the previous session.

Key drivers of the decline

Crude oil prices: Crude oil surged to a three-month high, stoking fears of inflationary pressures and higher input costs across industries.

Global market trends: Weak global markets added to investor apprehensions, as global indices reflected a cautious outlook amid economic uncertainties.

Interest rate concerns: Revised expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts in 2025 also weighed on investor sentiment.

Outlook

Market experts suggest that volatility may persist in the near term as global and domestic factors continue to influence investor behavior. A focus on corporate earnings reports and international economic trends will be critical in shaping market movements in the weeks ahead.

With a significant erosion in investor wealth, market participants remain cautious as they navigate the ongoing uncertainties.

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Latest business news

Pune entrepreneur asks Blinkit CEO to launch ATM service after Ambulance, sparks debate

It’s worth mentioning that similar services are already available, such as platforms like MakeMyTrip that offer foreign currency delivery.

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Days after Blinkit launched its 10-minute ambulance service, a start-up founder and YouTuber reached out to Blinkit CEO Albinder Dhindsa with a request to introduce an “ATM-like” service. The founder suggested that this service would be “incredibly helpful.”

Harsh Punjabi, founder of The Dot Company and a YouTuber, posted on social media platform X: “Hey @albinder, please start an ATM-like service on Blinkit. Users could pay via UPI, and cash could be delivered to their doorstep in under 10 minutes. That would be super helpful!”

His rationale for this suggestion became clear in a follow-up tweet where he expressed, “Leaving for a trip and need cash. I only have Rs 100 at home. I don’t want to go to the ATM, but it looks like I’ll have to.”

Punjabi’s tweet sparked a variety of responses. Some users pointed out that delivery charges would incur an 18 percent GST, while others claimed that the idea would make Indians lazier. Many questioned the need for cash, given the widespread acceptance of UPI.

One user remarked, “The idea is good, but the 18 percent GST on delivery charges would ruin everything,” while another joked, “This scheme should be kept a secret.”

Another user lamented, “Why doesn’t Blinkit breathe on our behalf too? We’ve become that lazy,” and another added humorously, “Please, let’s not make India lazy to this extent.”

A user highlighted that similar arrangements exist where customers go to shops, pay extra for their bills, and take back the additional cash for tasks like paying rickshaw pullers.

“Why do you want cash? Cash should be eliminated. We need maximum digitalization,” one user opined, while another noted that acquiring smaller notes can be tricky, especially when UPI isn’t an option.

It’s worth mentioning that similar services are already available, such as platforms like MakeMyTrip that offer foreign currency delivery.

On January 2, Blinkit announced its ambulance service. Dhindsa stated, “We are taking our first step toward addressing the challenge of providing quick and reliable ambulance services in our cities. The first five ambulances will be operational in Gurugram starting today. As we expand, users will soon have the option to book a Basic Life Support (BLS) ambulance through the Blinkit app.”

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