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GDP overestimation: PM’s panel to issue ‘point by point rebuttal’ to ex-CEA’s claim

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GDP overestimation: PM’s panel to issue ‘point by point rebuttal’ to ex-CEA’s claim

As was to be expected, the Economic Advisory Council (EAC) to the Prime Minister today (Wednesday, June 12) rejected former Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) Arvind Subramanian’s claim that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers have been inflated, said media reports.

Subramanian in his study, reported yesterday, had said that India’s economic growth was overestimated by 2.5% points per year between 2011-’12 and 2016-’17, a period when both the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and National Democratic Alliance (NDA) governments were in power.

In his article in The Indian Express yesterday, Subramanian had said the actual growth figures between 2011 and 2017 — a period that spanned the UPA2 and the Narendra Modi government’s first term – werecloser to 4.5 per cent and not 7 per cent.

He has also suggested that the GDP estimation be revisited by an independent task force comprising national and international experts, statisticians, macro-economists and policy users.

The PM’s advisory body said Subramanian had made “strong claims”.

“It is worth noting that the base year of India’s income calculations shifted to 2011-’12 on the basis of recommendations of several committees with experts in National Income Accounting,” the EAC said. “It was on the basis of these recommendations, started in 2008, that the government implemented the change from January, 2015. Therefore, it is wrong to suggest that the views of experts have not been taken into account while changing the Base Year…”

Also Read: India’s growth rate overestimated by 2.5%, says study by former chief economic advisor

The advisory body also claimed that a country’s GDP should be measured in nominal terms, not in terms of real growth rates. “The Economic Advisory Council will examine in detail the estimates made in Subramanian’s paper and come out with a point-by-point rebuttal in due course,” it added.

It also accused the former CEA of attempting to sensationalise the matter, and said this was undesirable “from the point of view of preserving the independence and quality of India’s statistical systems”.

“These are certainly issues that Dr Subramanian must certainly have raised while he was working as CEA, though by his own admission, he has taken time to understand India’s growth numbers and is still unsure,” the council added.

The statement follows a clarification last evening from the Ministry of Statistics, which said estimates of the country’s economic growth are based on “accepted procedures, methodologies and available data”.

The Council argued that Dr. Subramanian, in his research, used “cross-country regressions” to estimate the GDP and said it was a “most unusual exercise”.

“Using cross-country regressions to estimate GDP is a most unusual exercise, as is the suggestion that any country’s GDP that is off the regression line must be questioned. The proxy indicators that he used can also be questioned. Nor does this exercise allow for GDP increases on the basis of productivity gains,” the statement read.

“A country’s GDP is in nominal terms and any exercise should be on the basis of nominal figures, not real growth rates,” it added.

Also Read: RBI cuts interest rates as economy slows, India loses out to China as fastest growing economy

Subramanian had said inaccurate statistics on the economy “dampen the impetus for reform”, and restoring growth must be the current government’s key policy objective. “In reality, weak job growth and acute financial sector stress may have simply stemmed from modest GDP growth,” he had added. The same day, the Centre claimed Subramanian’s estimates were based on “accepted procedures, methodologies, and available data”.

In May, the government had announced that India’s growth rate had declined to 5.8% in the last quarter of the financial year 2018-’19. This was the slowest pace of growth in 17 quarters.

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Zomato introduces Food Rescue feature

“We don’t encourage order cancellation at Zomato, because it leads to a tremendous amount of food wastage,” he said.

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Zomato has introduced a new feature called Food Rescue to minimise food wastage, announced the food delivery platform CEO Deepinder Goyal on Sunday.

Announcing the new feature on X, Goyal said the decision, to introduce the new feature, was taken to prevent the tremendous amount of food wastage due to order cancellation on the platform.

Committed to minimising food wastage, the Zomato boss said: “We don’t encourage order cancellation at Zomato, because it leads to a tremendous amount of food wastage.”

Goyal said despite having stringent policies, and a no-refund policy for cancellations, more than 4 lakh perfectly good orders get cancelled, for various reasons by customers.

He said the top concern for the online food delivery platform, the restaurant industry, and even the customers who cancel these orders, is to somehow save the food from going to waste.

With the launch of the new feature, Food Rescue, cancelled orders will now pop up for nearby customers, who can grab them at an unbeatable price, in their original untampered packaging, and receive them in just minutes.

According to Zomato, the cancelled order will pop up on the app for customers within a 3 km radius of the delivery partner carrying the order. To ensure freshness, the option to claim will only be available for a few minutes.

The online food delivery platform will not keep any proceeds except the required government taxes and the amount paid by the new customer will be shared with the original customer (if they made payment online) and with the restaurant partner.

Orders containing items sensitive to distances or temperature such as ice creams, shakes, smoothies, and certain perishable items, will not be eligible for Food Rescue.

Restaurant partners will continue to receive compensation for the original cancelled order, plus a portion of the amount paid by the new customer if the order is claimed, the company said. “Most restaurants have opted in for this feature, and can opt of it easily whenever they want, directly from their control panels,” it added.

The delivery partners will be compensated fully for the entire trip, from the initial pickup to the final drop-off at the new customer’s location, it said.

Food Rescue will show up on the customers’ home page automatically if there’s a cancelled order available for them to grab. The Customers have to refresh the home page to check for any newly available orders which need to be rescued.

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Adani, Torrent compete to purchase Gujarat Titans from CVC Capital

The probable sale of the Gujarat Titans, with the lock-in period coming to a close, will therefore be a defining moment in the changing face of IPL investments.

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The Adani Group and Torrent Group are currently negotiating a deal with private equity firm CVC Capital Partners to offload a controlling stake in the Indian Premier League franchise Gujarat Titans. According to sources, close to the development, reports say CVC Capital Partners will be looking to sell a majority interest while retaining a minority share in the franchise.

This becomes important because it is aligned with the end of the lock-in period by the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI), which restricts any new teams from selling stakes until February 2025. The three-year-old franchise Gujarat Titans is reportedly worth $1 billion to $1.5 billion. CVC Capital Partners had paid ₹5,625 crore for the franchise in 2021.

A source close to the development pointed out that IPL franchises have attracted many investors’ interest since the league has proved an asset with a good reputation for money-making capabilities and cash flows. This growing interest of investors embodies the financial value and stability that come with the IPL franchises.

Gautam Adani, who owns teams in the Women’s Premier League and UAE-based International League T20, is understood to be one of the serious buyers. In 2023, Adani’s group won the Ahmedabad franchise in the WPL with a bid of Rs1,289 crore, the highest offer. His interests in this potential deal signal his commitment to expanding his footprint in the cricketing world.

Arvinder Singh, COO of Gujarat Titans, exuded confidence in the financial future of the franchise. He said the team was confident of turning profitable in the next media rights cycle, referring to even the original ten IPL franchises that took four to five years to turn profitable. He added confidently that the Gujarat Titans would not only turn profitable but significantly enhance in brand value.
 
This surging interest of investors in it is evidence of the growing financial attractiveness of IPL franchises, driven by healthy revenue streams and an increasing global footprint. The probable sale of the Gujarat Titans, with the lock-in period coming to a close, will therefore be a defining moment in the changing face of IPL investments.

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PayTm share price slips 2 per cent over SEBI warning

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Paytm

The share price of PayTm fell by nearly 2 per cent on Tuesday following a warning from the the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI).

PayTm’s parent One 97 Communication had got SEBI’s administrative warning letter on some transactions involving the PayTm Payments Bank during fiscal year 2021-2022. The bourses reacted strongly leading to PayTm shares falling by 1.88% to Rs 460.80 per share on the Bombay Stock Exchange.

SEBI said it had noted the violation with concern and said these matters are being viewed very seriously. The regulator warned the company to exercise caution going forward and improve compliance to rules to prevent similar incidents in the future.

The markets regulator added that failure to comply with rules may force it to invoke enforcement actions as per the law.

In its response to SEBI, PayTm said in a media release that it has always followed listing regulations, as well as any change to these rules over time. The company said it would keep up its commitment to maintain and follow high standards of compliance. Paytm said it intends to provide an adequate response to SEBI on this matter.

PayTm said it has always followed Regulation 23 along with Regulation 4(1)(h) of the SEBI Listing Regulations, without including any change made to these rules over time. Paytm added that the letter from  SEBI has no influence on its finances, operations or other activities in any way.

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