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Reliance Jio’s hyper-aggression scorches competition

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Reliance Jio’s hyper-aggression scorches competition

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Market analysts predict fall in revenues in telecom sector

By Sindhu Bhattacharya

Reliance Jio Infocomm is living up to the hype surrounding its arrival, having ‘primed’ competition to offer unbelievably low priced data packs over the weekend. Remember, though RJio has said its services will become commercial from April 1, after a six-month free run, it has priced these services dirt cheap and is driving membership of ‘Prime’ aggressively before March ends. This combination of low-priced data packs and Jio Prime membership drive is already killing the telecom industry.

On Sunday, Paytm chief Vijay Shekhar Sharma started a thread where he sought additional data from market leader Bharti Airtel on Twitter. He began by seeking more information about the Rs 549 plan that offers 1 GB data limit every day. Sharma said he called up Airtel customer care and got 60 GB per month data use option in place of current 15 GB monthly usage limit on Rs 2,999 plan.

Though many among the Twitterati panned him saying there was no need to continue paying Rs 2,999 despite increased data usage, Sharma’s thread spurred countless mobile phone users to also seek higher data usage from their respective service providers. Meanwhile, RJio snatched this opportunity and said on twitter that it would offer him 56 GB mobile broadband plan for just Rs 499, which Sharma obviously accepted. It is entirely possible that Bharti will now try and retain Sharma’s connection by offering him matching plans offline, but the point really is that RJio is changing tariff dynamics of the industry and everyone will have to suffer a cut in revenues due to this.

Rajiv Sharma and Darpan Thakkar of HSBC Global Research said in a note to clients that despite RJio beginning commercial operations from April, “We see sector revenues declining in FY18 by 6% as Average Revenue Per User (ARPUs) for the mid- to high-end of the subscriber base with incumbent telcos may get reset to significantly lower levels. The revenue decline may be bigger for the sector if termination rates were to decline meaningfully, as this may add to the ongoing tariff wars the sector currently faces.” Remember, the industry has already seen a similar 6% decline in revenues in the third quarter, when RJio services were free.

In fact, Edelwiess analysts Sandip Agarwal and Pranav Kshatriya had another warning for the embattled telecom industry: they expect RJIO to venture into feature phone segment with aggressive voice offering which will drive down voice realisations, leading to revenue headwinds. So not only is cheap data fast becoming a headache for the leading telcos Bharti, Idea Cellular and Vodafone India, even voice realisations may fall in the near future.

According to this piece, RJio is offering two key monthly plans at Rs 499 and Rs 303, with 28 days of validity each. Apart from basic offerings, the 4G data available to a non-Prime user in the Rs 499 plan is 5GB for 28 days without any daily cap. But Prime members will get 2GB of 4G data every day, which means 56GB in 28 days. The Rs 303 Plan offers 2.5GB 4G data to non-Prime users, valid for 28 days, while Prime users will receive 1GB 4G data every day for 28 days. It is obvious that with such generous data offers, competition to RJio also needs to loosen its purse strings.

RJio is in a hurry to gain market share and this is evident from presentation it gave to analysts on Friday. Sample this: RJio is targeting 50% market share, in a market 50% larger and an Ebitda margin of 50% by 2021. This means it is eying $22 billion revenue and $11billion Ebitda within the next four years. Obviously then, it must wean away customers from competition to achieve such ambitious targets. But are the RJio targets realistic?

Analysts of IIFL Institutional Equities said in a note to clients that RJIO’s Prime membership will threaten industry revenue growth over the next six months.  They also quoted the company’s presentation to say “R JIO thinks that in its 1GB/day Prime plan at Rs303 for 28 days, effective yield will be Rs30/GB and it will go up to Rs50/GB in six months and will be higher in regular packs. We think RJIO has overestimated industry revenue and its revenue market share, and it has underestimated the capability of competition to raise their data capacity.”

Whether Rjio achieves its ambitious medium term targets of market share etc remains to be seen. But in the immediate future, competition cannot afford to sit over RJIo’s unmatched aggression. In these telecom wars, the only beneficiary for now seems to be the Indian phone user.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

Why Hindenburg Research is shutting down: A personal note from the founder

Anderson emphasised that his choice was not prompted by any single factor. There are no external threats, health concerns, or urgent issues necessitating this decision. Instead, he described it as a natural conclusion to a significant chapter in his life.

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Nate Anderson, the founder of Hindenburg Research, has decided to shut down his short-selling venture, which has famously exposed alleged frauds amounting to billions and sent shockwaves through major corporations. From igniting a $150 billion crisis for the Adani Group to taking down giants like Nikola and Eros International, Hindenburg has become synonymous with financial scrutiny and controversy depending on one’s perspective.

In a comprehensive blog post titled “Personal Note From Our Founder,” Anderson revealed his decision, stating that the firm has fulfilled its mission and that it is time to move forward. “As I’ve shared with family, friends, and our team since late last year, I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research,” he wrote.

Anderson emphasised that his choice was not prompted by any single factor. There are no external threats, health concerns, or urgent issues necessitating this decision. Instead, he described it as a natural conclusion to a significant chapter in his life.

This announcement follows Hindenburg’s completion of its final investigations into alleged financial fraud, which have been submitted to regulators. “As of the last Ponzi cases we just completed and are sharing with regulators, that day is today,” Anderson noted.

Reflecting on his career, he acknowledged that his intense dedication to the firm had come at the expense of other life areas. Initially motivated by a desire to prove himself, he ultimately began to view Hindenburg Research as just one of many chapters in his life.

In the upcoming six months, Anderson plans to create and share content, including materials and videos, to transparently illustrate the firm’s investigative techniques. He hopes this will inspire others to pursue similar efforts.

Hindenburg Research operated with a small but committed team of 11 members. Anderson praised their dedication to precise, evidence-based reporting and their courage in uncovering financial fraud. His team’s efforts have significantly influenced the landscape of financial accountability, with nearly 100 individuals facing civil or criminal charges partially attributable to their investigations.

“Nearly 100 individuals have been charged civilly or criminally by regulators, at least in part due to our work, including billionaires and oligarchs. We shook some empires that we felt needed shaking,” Anderson stated.

Hindenburg garnered international attention in January 2023 when it published a report alleging fraud and stock manipulation by the Adani Group. This report triggered a massive selloff in Adani’s stock, erasing over $100 billion from Gautam Adani’s personal wealth and causing the market capitalization of 10 Adani Group companies to plummet from ₹19.19 lakh crore on January 24, 2023, to below ₹7 lakh crore by February 27.

Although Adani stocks eventually recovered, the Supreme Court later noted that allegations made by organizations like Hindenburg, without proper verification, cannot be considered valid evidence. Previously, Hindenburg’s investigations included exposing Nikola Corporation in 2020 for fraud, which resulted in the resignation of founder Trevor Milton.

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India News

Sensex sheds 1,049 points, Nifty drops below 23,100

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Sensex falls 1,049 points, Nifty slips below 23,100 amid market downturn

The Indian stock market faced another day of sharp declines on January 13, as bearish sentiments tightened their grip for the fourth consecutive session. Weak global cues, a surge in crude oil prices to a three-month high, and reduced expectations of a U.S. rate cut in 2025 contributed to the downward spiral.

At the close of trading, the Sensex plunged 1,048.90 points or 1.36% to settle at 76,330.01. The Nifty also fell significantly, shedding 345.55 points or 1.47% to close at 23,085.95.

Sectoral impact

All sectoral indices ended the session in the red. The realty index was the worst hit, slumping by 6.7%. Other sectors, including oil & gas, power, PSU, metal, and media, recorded losses in the range of 3-4%.

This broad-based sell-off saw investors’ wealth take a major hit. The market capitalization of BSE-listed companies dropped sharply by Rs 12.39 lakh crore, falling to Rs 417.28 lakh crore from Rs 429.67 lakh crore in the previous session.

Key drivers of the decline

Crude oil prices: Crude oil surged to a three-month high, stoking fears of inflationary pressures and higher input costs across industries.

Global market trends: Weak global markets added to investor apprehensions, as global indices reflected a cautious outlook amid economic uncertainties.

Interest rate concerns: Revised expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts in 2025 also weighed on investor sentiment.

Outlook

Market experts suggest that volatility may persist in the near term as global and domestic factors continue to influence investor behavior. A focus on corporate earnings reports and international economic trends will be critical in shaping market movements in the weeks ahead.

With a significant erosion in investor wealth, market participants remain cautious as they navigate the ongoing uncertainties.

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Latest business news

Pune entrepreneur asks Blinkit CEO to launch ATM service after Ambulance, sparks debate

It’s worth mentioning that similar services are already available, such as platforms like MakeMyTrip that offer foreign currency delivery.

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Days after Blinkit launched its 10-minute ambulance service, a start-up founder and YouTuber reached out to Blinkit CEO Albinder Dhindsa with a request to introduce an “ATM-like” service. The founder suggested that this service would be “incredibly helpful.”

Harsh Punjabi, founder of The Dot Company and a YouTuber, posted on social media platform X: “Hey @albinder, please start an ATM-like service on Blinkit. Users could pay via UPI, and cash could be delivered to their doorstep in under 10 minutes. That would be super helpful!”

His rationale for this suggestion became clear in a follow-up tweet where he expressed, “Leaving for a trip and need cash. I only have Rs 100 at home. I don’t want to go to the ATM, but it looks like I’ll have to.”

Punjabi’s tweet sparked a variety of responses. Some users pointed out that delivery charges would incur an 18 percent GST, while others claimed that the idea would make Indians lazier. Many questioned the need for cash, given the widespread acceptance of UPI.

One user remarked, “The idea is good, but the 18 percent GST on delivery charges would ruin everything,” while another joked, “This scheme should be kept a secret.”

Another user lamented, “Why doesn’t Blinkit breathe on our behalf too? We’ve become that lazy,” and another added humorously, “Please, let’s not make India lazy to this extent.”

A user highlighted that similar arrangements exist where customers go to shops, pay extra for their bills, and take back the additional cash for tasks like paying rickshaw pullers.

“Why do you want cash? Cash should be eliminated. We need maximum digitalization,” one user opined, while another noted that acquiring smaller notes can be tricky, especially when UPI isn’t an option.

It’s worth mentioning that similar services are already available, such as platforms like MakeMyTrip that offer foreign currency delivery.

On January 2, Blinkit announced its ambulance service. Dhindsa stated, “We are taking our first step toward addressing the challenge of providing quick and reliable ambulance services in our cities. The first five ambulances will be operational in Gurugram starting today. As we expand, users will soon have the option to book a Basic Life Support (BLS) ambulance through the Blinkit app.”

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