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Telenor exit may portend trend

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Telenor exit may portend trend

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]No longer wise to wait for valuations to rise before selling out; market reset likely to yield three main players

By Sindhu Bhattacharya

The valuation at which Norwegian telecom operator Telenor agreed to sell off its Indian operations to Bharti Airtel last week reveals a lot more besides just the seller’s desperation to cut losses and run. It shows why all other small telecom operators still braving it out in the world’s second largest telecom market may need to also hasten their exits.

This is no longer a game for the weak hearted, and as the Telenor deal shows, it is also no longer wise to wait for valuations to rise before the small guys start thinking of selling out. Yes, the changed telecom market reality has partly been engineered by the arrival of Reliance Jio Infocomm last September in an already crowded market. Another reason could also be the abundant spectrum availability for major telcos after the last round of auctions which has cooled the appetite of big operators to pay any premium to acquire the smaller rivals. Telenor did well to absorb its losses and exit while there was still a taker. And Bharti has gained not just in money terms but also by stocking up on spectrum for future wars with RJio on the data front.

According to analysts, the Bharti-Telenor deal was concluded at just about Rs 2,000 crore when they were expecting the deal size to be up to four times more for Bharti to acquire Telenor’s spectrum, customers and employees. Telenor had said while announcing the deal that Bharti would only acquire outstanding spectrum payments and other operational contracts including tower lease, which led analysts to conclude that Bharti will invest just Rs 2,000 crore in the deal.

Analysts from brokerage Motilal Oswal said in a note to clients this morning that after the recently-concluded auction, there were limited takers for incremental spectrum in the market. This made it difficult for Telenor to get any premium whatsoever for its significant spectrum holding in some of India’s most populous telecom circles.  Given the impending merger of number two and three telecom operators, Vodafone and Idea Cellular; the already inked RJio-RCom spectrum sharing terms; and the fact that no sizeable operator was willing to take its spectrum, Telenor was anyway left with limited options. This may have led to the low valuation in its deal with Bharti. The bottomline is that the deal worked in Bharti’s favour because it came so cheap.

These analysts further said that at a potential investment of about Rs 2,000 crore for Bharti, generating operating cash flow of Rs 32,000 crore and net debt of Rs 102,000 crore, “the investment would add hardly 2% to net debt, which would be offset by the EBITDA contribution from the merger.”

Also read: Telenor’s painful exit and the writing on the wall

This piece points out that as consolidation has picked up pace in India’s telecom market, sellers are settling for lower and lower valuations. “Telenor even settled for nothing, despite having 44 million customers and nearly Rs 5,000 crore in annual revenues; leave alone the value of its spectrum.”

The Motilal analysts quoted earlier said the Bharti-Telenor deal bolsters Bharti’s defence against RJio. While the incremental spectrum Bharti gets as part of this deal may not be presently required, given the large-scale data traffic on RJio’s network, holding high quantum of spectrum would allow Bharti to compete with RJio in a fixed-cost-driven market. “We believe Bharti’s strategy to remain ahead of the curve in data-rich spectrum investments should hold it in good stead”.

Not just the Bharti-Telenor deal, smaller telcos need to also take a lesson from other M&As being lined up. Already, the number two and three telecom operators in India. Vodafone and Idea Cellular, are in merger talks. If this merger happens, then the merged entity and Bharti will together control over 70% of India’s telecom market share by revenue. This obviously spells doom for remaining small players. Industry estimates peg post-merger market share for Tata Teleservices at 6.5%, BSNL and MTNL combine at 5%, Aircel at 5.7% and Sistema at 4%. Reliance Communications (RComm) is estimated to be close to Sistema’s share at 4.2%.

Also read: Vodafone, Idea merger plans leave Tata Tele in a fix

The market has space for four or at best five strong operators to play. Any more and it will become a very uneven playing field. Already, RJio’s freebies have spurred others to enter a bruising price war. As RJio’s commercial launch nears its April one deadline, competitors like Bharti and Vodafone will start offering competing plans – RJIo has promised voice calls for free and no charges for national roaming and there are already indications that at least Bharti will match these offers.

Also read: Tata in early talks to join RCom-Aircel-MTS combine to take on Jio

This piece speaks of a possible merger of Tata Teleservices with the RComm, Aircel, MTS combine and goes on to say that such a move could create a strong number three telco behind the proposed Vodafone-Idea combine and Bharti Airtel.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

Why Hindenburg Research is shutting down: A personal note from the founder

Anderson emphasised that his choice was not prompted by any single factor. There are no external threats, health concerns, or urgent issues necessitating this decision. Instead, he described it as a natural conclusion to a significant chapter in his life.

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Nate Anderson, the founder of Hindenburg Research, has decided to shut down his short-selling venture, which has famously exposed alleged frauds amounting to billions and sent shockwaves through major corporations. From igniting a $150 billion crisis for the Adani Group to taking down giants like Nikola and Eros International, Hindenburg has become synonymous with financial scrutiny and controversy depending on one’s perspective.

In a comprehensive blog post titled “Personal Note From Our Founder,” Anderson revealed his decision, stating that the firm has fulfilled its mission and that it is time to move forward. “As I’ve shared with family, friends, and our team since late last year, I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research,” he wrote.

Anderson emphasised that his choice was not prompted by any single factor. There are no external threats, health concerns, or urgent issues necessitating this decision. Instead, he described it as a natural conclusion to a significant chapter in his life.

This announcement follows Hindenburg’s completion of its final investigations into alleged financial fraud, which have been submitted to regulators. “As of the last Ponzi cases we just completed and are sharing with regulators, that day is today,” Anderson noted.

Reflecting on his career, he acknowledged that his intense dedication to the firm had come at the expense of other life areas. Initially motivated by a desire to prove himself, he ultimately began to view Hindenburg Research as just one of many chapters in his life.

In the upcoming six months, Anderson plans to create and share content, including materials and videos, to transparently illustrate the firm’s investigative techniques. He hopes this will inspire others to pursue similar efforts.

Hindenburg Research operated with a small but committed team of 11 members. Anderson praised their dedication to precise, evidence-based reporting and their courage in uncovering financial fraud. His team’s efforts have significantly influenced the landscape of financial accountability, with nearly 100 individuals facing civil or criminal charges partially attributable to their investigations.

“Nearly 100 individuals have been charged civilly or criminally by regulators, at least in part due to our work, including billionaires and oligarchs. We shook some empires that we felt needed shaking,” Anderson stated.

Hindenburg garnered international attention in January 2023 when it published a report alleging fraud and stock manipulation by the Adani Group. This report triggered a massive selloff in Adani’s stock, erasing over $100 billion from Gautam Adani’s personal wealth and causing the market capitalization of 10 Adani Group companies to plummet from ₹19.19 lakh crore on January 24, 2023, to below ₹7 lakh crore by February 27.

Although Adani stocks eventually recovered, the Supreme Court later noted that allegations made by organizations like Hindenburg, without proper verification, cannot be considered valid evidence. Previously, Hindenburg’s investigations included exposing Nikola Corporation in 2020 for fraud, which resulted in the resignation of founder Trevor Milton.

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India News

Sensex sheds 1,049 points, Nifty drops below 23,100

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Sensex falls 1,049 points, Nifty slips below 23,100 amid market downturn

The Indian stock market faced another day of sharp declines on January 13, as bearish sentiments tightened their grip for the fourth consecutive session. Weak global cues, a surge in crude oil prices to a three-month high, and reduced expectations of a U.S. rate cut in 2025 contributed to the downward spiral.

At the close of trading, the Sensex plunged 1,048.90 points or 1.36% to settle at 76,330.01. The Nifty also fell significantly, shedding 345.55 points or 1.47% to close at 23,085.95.

Sectoral impact

All sectoral indices ended the session in the red. The realty index was the worst hit, slumping by 6.7%. Other sectors, including oil & gas, power, PSU, metal, and media, recorded losses in the range of 3-4%.

This broad-based sell-off saw investors’ wealth take a major hit. The market capitalization of BSE-listed companies dropped sharply by Rs 12.39 lakh crore, falling to Rs 417.28 lakh crore from Rs 429.67 lakh crore in the previous session.

Key drivers of the decline

Crude oil prices: Crude oil surged to a three-month high, stoking fears of inflationary pressures and higher input costs across industries.

Global market trends: Weak global markets added to investor apprehensions, as global indices reflected a cautious outlook amid economic uncertainties.

Interest rate concerns: Revised expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts in 2025 also weighed on investor sentiment.

Outlook

Market experts suggest that volatility may persist in the near term as global and domestic factors continue to influence investor behavior. A focus on corporate earnings reports and international economic trends will be critical in shaping market movements in the weeks ahead.

With a significant erosion in investor wealth, market participants remain cautious as they navigate the ongoing uncertainties.

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Pune entrepreneur asks Blinkit CEO to launch ATM service after Ambulance, sparks debate

It’s worth mentioning that similar services are already available, such as platforms like MakeMyTrip that offer foreign currency delivery.

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Days after Blinkit launched its 10-minute ambulance service, a start-up founder and YouTuber reached out to Blinkit CEO Albinder Dhindsa with a request to introduce an “ATM-like” service. The founder suggested that this service would be “incredibly helpful.”

Harsh Punjabi, founder of The Dot Company and a YouTuber, posted on social media platform X: “Hey @albinder, please start an ATM-like service on Blinkit. Users could pay via UPI, and cash could be delivered to their doorstep in under 10 minutes. That would be super helpful!”

His rationale for this suggestion became clear in a follow-up tweet where he expressed, “Leaving for a trip and need cash. I only have Rs 100 at home. I don’t want to go to the ATM, but it looks like I’ll have to.”

Punjabi’s tweet sparked a variety of responses. Some users pointed out that delivery charges would incur an 18 percent GST, while others claimed that the idea would make Indians lazier. Many questioned the need for cash, given the widespread acceptance of UPI.

One user remarked, “The idea is good, but the 18 percent GST on delivery charges would ruin everything,” while another joked, “This scheme should be kept a secret.”

Another user lamented, “Why doesn’t Blinkit breathe on our behalf too? We’ve become that lazy,” and another added humorously, “Please, let’s not make India lazy to this extent.”

A user highlighted that similar arrangements exist where customers go to shops, pay extra for their bills, and take back the additional cash for tasks like paying rickshaw pullers.

“Why do you want cash? Cash should be eliminated. We need maximum digitalization,” one user opined, while another noted that acquiring smaller notes can be tricky, especially when UPI isn’t an option.

It’s worth mentioning that similar services are already available, such as platforms like MakeMyTrip that offer foreign currency delivery.

On January 2, Blinkit announced its ambulance service. Dhindsa stated, “We are taking our first step toward addressing the challenge of providing quick and reliable ambulance services in our cities. The first five ambulances will be operational in Gurugram starting today. As we expand, users will soon have the option to book a Basic Life Support (BLS) ambulance through the Blinkit app.”

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