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World economy in slowdown, growth to be lowest in decade; to hit India harder: IMF chief

With global economic slowdown, growth in 2019-20 will fall to its lowest since the beginning of the decade, affecting emerging market economies such as India more.

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international monetary fund

With economic slowdown affecting almost 90 per cent of the world, growth in 2019-20 will fall to its lowest rate since the beginning of the decade and this is having a “more pronounced” effect on emerging market economies such as India, said the new International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, on Tuesday, Oct 8.

Georgieva took over leadership at the IMF from Christine Lagarde as MD on Oct 1. Georgieva made this assessment one week ahead of the joint Annual Meeting between the IMF and World Bank (WB) in which both institutions will present their economic projections in a gathering of top central bankers and economy ministers.

The fund is due to release details in its updated World Economic Outlook on October 15.

“Two years ago, the global economy was in a synchronized upswing. Measured by GDP, nearly 75 per cent of the world was accelerating. The global economy is now in a synchronized slowdown. In 2019, we expect slower growth in nearly 90 per cent of the world,” said Georgieva in her first speech as MD, IMF.

“In the United States and Germany, unemployment is at historic lows. Yet across advanced economies, including in the US, Japan, and especially the Euro area, there is a softening of economic activity,” she said.

“In some of the largest emerging market economies, such as India and Brazil, the slowdown is even more pronounced this year,” she added.

She said the IMF is cutting its forecasts for growth this year and next. Previously, the world economy had been projected to expand by 3.2 per cent in 2019 and 3.5 percent in 2020.

The IMF had cut its projection for India’s economic growth by 0.3 percentage points to 7 per cent for the fiscal year 2019-20 owing to the “weaker-than-expected outlook” for the domestic demand.

Georgieva attributed the slowdown to a range of uncertainties — she called them “fractures” — including trade tensions, Brexit and geopolitical tensions.

Georgieva said that currencies are once again in the spotlight and disputes now extend between multiple countries and into other critical issues.

“Even if growth picks-up in 2020, the current rifts could lead to changes that last a generation — broken supply chains, siloed trade sectors, a ‘digital Berlin Wall’ that forces countries to choose between technology systems,” she said.

The IMF Managing Director said that global trade growth has come to a “near standstill.”

Amid rising trade war between the countries which is generally fought through tariffs and counter-tariffs, the chief called for nations to work together.

While trade tensions had been talked about as a danger to the economy, “now, we see that they are actually taking a toll,” she said.

She said trade tensions could result in “substantial weakening” of manufacturing and investment activity, and could subsequently affect services and consumption.

“Everyone loses in a trade war. For the global economy, the cumulative effect of trade conflicts could mean a loss of around $700 billion by 2020, or about 0.8 per cent of GDP. As a reference, this is approximately the size of Switzerland’s entire economy,” she said.

Georgieva compared the present scenario to that of two years ago, before the US-China trade war, when countries representing nearly 75 per cent of the world’s output were seeing accelerating growth.

To protect against a sharp global slowdown, Georgieva called on countries with funds available to deploy their “fiscal firepower”. She called for a “coordinated” response to the slowdown. “The world economy is still growing, it is just growing too slowly. To reverse this trend, and meet the aspirations of people, we cannot afford to be complacent. We must act,” she said.

The IMF chief’s statement came even as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said that the Indian economy which has largely been subdued in the past few quarters and signs of a slowdown have cropped up, is likely to face several more risks in the near term.

The RBI in its Monetary Policy Report, October 2019, has also said that a combination of domestic and global headwinds has depressed economic activity in the country “especially in terms of aggregate demand”. The near-term outlook of the Indian economy is fraught with several risks, said the report.

It said that private consumption, which is the major support of economic activity, has started to slow down due to several reasons.

India News

Why Hindenburg Research is shutting down: A personal note from the founder

Anderson emphasised that his choice was not prompted by any single factor. There are no external threats, health concerns, or urgent issues necessitating this decision. Instead, he described it as a natural conclusion to a significant chapter in his life.

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Nate Anderson, the founder of Hindenburg Research, has decided to shut down his short-selling venture, which has famously exposed alleged frauds amounting to billions and sent shockwaves through major corporations. From igniting a $150 billion crisis for the Adani Group to taking down giants like Nikola and Eros International, Hindenburg has become synonymous with financial scrutiny and controversy depending on one’s perspective.

In a comprehensive blog post titled “Personal Note From Our Founder,” Anderson revealed his decision, stating that the firm has fulfilled its mission and that it is time to move forward. “As I’ve shared with family, friends, and our team since late last year, I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research,” he wrote.

Anderson emphasised that his choice was not prompted by any single factor. There are no external threats, health concerns, or urgent issues necessitating this decision. Instead, he described it as a natural conclusion to a significant chapter in his life.

This announcement follows Hindenburg’s completion of its final investigations into alleged financial fraud, which have been submitted to regulators. “As of the last Ponzi cases we just completed and are sharing with regulators, that day is today,” Anderson noted.

Reflecting on his career, he acknowledged that his intense dedication to the firm had come at the expense of other life areas. Initially motivated by a desire to prove himself, he ultimately began to view Hindenburg Research as just one of many chapters in his life.

In the upcoming six months, Anderson plans to create and share content, including materials and videos, to transparently illustrate the firm’s investigative techniques. He hopes this will inspire others to pursue similar efforts.

Hindenburg Research operated with a small but committed team of 11 members. Anderson praised their dedication to precise, evidence-based reporting and their courage in uncovering financial fraud. His team’s efforts have significantly influenced the landscape of financial accountability, with nearly 100 individuals facing civil or criminal charges partially attributable to their investigations.

“Nearly 100 individuals have been charged civilly or criminally by regulators, at least in part due to our work, including billionaires and oligarchs. We shook some empires that we felt needed shaking,” Anderson stated.

Hindenburg garnered international attention in January 2023 when it published a report alleging fraud and stock manipulation by the Adani Group. This report triggered a massive selloff in Adani’s stock, erasing over $100 billion from Gautam Adani’s personal wealth and causing the market capitalization of 10 Adani Group companies to plummet from ₹19.19 lakh crore on January 24, 2023, to below ₹7 lakh crore by February 27.

Although Adani stocks eventually recovered, the Supreme Court later noted that allegations made by organizations like Hindenburg, without proper verification, cannot be considered valid evidence. Previously, Hindenburg’s investigations included exposing Nikola Corporation in 2020 for fraud, which resulted in the resignation of founder Trevor Milton.

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India News

Sensex sheds 1,049 points, Nifty drops below 23,100

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Sensex falls 1,049 points, Nifty slips below 23,100 amid market downturn

The Indian stock market faced another day of sharp declines on January 13, as bearish sentiments tightened their grip for the fourth consecutive session. Weak global cues, a surge in crude oil prices to a three-month high, and reduced expectations of a U.S. rate cut in 2025 contributed to the downward spiral.

At the close of trading, the Sensex plunged 1,048.90 points or 1.36% to settle at 76,330.01. The Nifty also fell significantly, shedding 345.55 points or 1.47% to close at 23,085.95.

Sectoral impact

All sectoral indices ended the session in the red. The realty index was the worst hit, slumping by 6.7%. Other sectors, including oil & gas, power, PSU, metal, and media, recorded losses in the range of 3-4%.

This broad-based sell-off saw investors’ wealth take a major hit. The market capitalization of BSE-listed companies dropped sharply by Rs 12.39 lakh crore, falling to Rs 417.28 lakh crore from Rs 429.67 lakh crore in the previous session.

Key drivers of the decline

Crude oil prices: Crude oil surged to a three-month high, stoking fears of inflationary pressures and higher input costs across industries.

Global market trends: Weak global markets added to investor apprehensions, as global indices reflected a cautious outlook amid economic uncertainties.

Interest rate concerns: Revised expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts in 2025 also weighed on investor sentiment.

Outlook

Market experts suggest that volatility may persist in the near term as global and domestic factors continue to influence investor behavior. A focus on corporate earnings reports and international economic trends will be critical in shaping market movements in the weeks ahead.

With a significant erosion in investor wealth, market participants remain cautious as they navigate the ongoing uncertainties.

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Latest business news

Pune entrepreneur asks Blinkit CEO to launch ATM service after Ambulance, sparks debate

It’s worth mentioning that similar services are already available, such as platforms like MakeMyTrip that offer foreign currency delivery.

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Days after Blinkit launched its 10-minute ambulance service, a start-up founder and YouTuber reached out to Blinkit CEO Albinder Dhindsa with a request to introduce an “ATM-like” service. The founder suggested that this service would be “incredibly helpful.”

Harsh Punjabi, founder of The Dot Company and a YouTuber, posted on social media platform X: “Hey @albinder, please start an ATM-like service on Blinkit. Users could pay via UPI, and cash could be delivered to their doorstep in under 10 minutes. That would be super helpful!”

His rationale for this suggestion became clear in a follow-up tweet where he expressed, “Leaving for a trip and need cash. I only have Rs 100 at home. I don’t want to go to the ATM, but it looks like I’ll have to.”

Punjabi’s tweet sparked a variety of responses. Some users pointed out that delivery charges would incur an 18 percent GST, while others claimed that the idea would make Indians lazier. Many questioned the need for cash, given the widespread acceptance of UPI.

One user remarked, “The idea is good, but the 18 percent GST on delivery charges would ruin everything,” while another joked, “This scheme should be kept a secret.”

Another user lamented, “Why doesn’t Blinkit breathe on our behalf too? We’ve become that lazy,” and another added humorously, “Please, let’s not make India lazy to this extent.”

A user highlighted that similar arrangements exist where customers go to shops, pay extra for their bills, and take back the additional cash for tasks like paying rickshaw pullers.

“Why do you want cash? Cash should be eliminated. We need maximum digitalization,” one user opined, while another noted that acquiring smaller notes can be tricky, especially when UPI isn’t an option.

It’s worth mentioning that similar services are already available, such as platforms like MakeMyTrip that offer foreign currency delivery.

On January 2, Blinkit announced its ambulance service. Dhindsa stated, “We are taking our first step toward addressing the challenge of providing quick and reliable ambulance services in our cities. The first five ambulances will be operational in Gurugram starting today. As we expand, users will soon have the option to book a Basic Life Support (BLS) ambulance through the Blinkit app.”

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