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Rise in Covid-19 cases in India sparks fear of fourth wave: What are the possible causes for the uptick in coronavirus cases in THESE states?

In a recent press event, Union Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan said Delhi, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh are the states where Covid-19 cases are seeing an uptick over the last few days.

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Maharashtra: Four cases of B.A.4 and three cases of B.A.5 variants of Omicron reported in Pune for first time

After a 2.5-month sigh of relief, Covid-19 cases are on the upsurge again in several parts of the country. Amid the XE variant, the Covid-19 cases in the country have risen by 35 percent over the last week. According to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, India recorded 2,183 new Covid-19 cases and 214 deaths in the last 24 hours. The active cases in the country currently stand at 11,542. The country’s daily positivity rate is 0.31 percent and the weekly positivity rate is 0.27 percent.

In a recent press event, Union Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan said Delhi, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh are the states where Covid-19 cases are seeing an uptick over the last few days. These states need to keep a careful watch on their caseload and need to take necessary steps to prevent the rise in Covid-19 cases, he added.

Which states are seeing a rise in daily Covid-19 cases?

Delhi

The national capital has recorded 517 new Covid cases in the last 24 hours. According to the Health Ministry, Delhi reported 12 percent higher cases from yesterday, taking the total number of active cases to 1,518. According to a recent survey, the number of persons in Delhi-NCR reporting someone in their immediate social network contracting COVID has increased by 500 percent in the last 15 days.

Haryana

Haryana on Saturday reported 202 cases in the last 24 hours, taking the active cases to 812. The positivity rate in the state has gone up to 3.18 percent. The daily count in Haryana has increased by four times on Sunday.

Uttar Pradesh

According to an official statement, the Uttar Pradesh government put all of the National Capital Region (NCR) districts on alert mode on Saturday in response to an increase in Covid-19 cases in Ghaziabad and Gautam Buddh Nagar. In all, 108 new cases were reported on Friday.

What are the possible causes for rising Covid-19 cases in the country?

The reasons for the rise in numbers in Delhi and Haryana are now unknown, but the most likely explanation is that it is due to the removal of the mask mandate and the lifting of all restrictions. According to Anurag Agrawal, former director of the Delhi-based Institute of Genetics and Integrative Biology (IGIB), the current increase in Delhi is in line with what would be expected if individuals stopped wearing masks and interacted more freely.

Schools and offices have reopened, travel has resumed, and most businesses have resumed full operations. It’s unsurprising that the number of cases is increasing as people connect more freely without any restrictions, he added.

Can India expect a fourth wave?

However, predicting anything about a new wave of outbreaks is hard. The virus’s evolution is a totally unpredictable and arbitrary process. And it appears that a new wave of infections in India will be triggered solely by the development of a new variation at this time. This is primarily due to the fact that the Omicron strain has already infected the majority of India’s population, and the population is likely to have developed some immunity against this variant.

Even though it’s unclear how long the immunity gained from the last infection will be effective but it will continue to last for at least six to nine months. This is also the reason for the nine-month gap in administering booster doses of vaccine. This indicates that most patients infected with the Omicron strain during the third wave would have effective protection for at least a few months longer. Unless, of course, a new dangerous variant is found floating in the population.

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India registers 313 new Covid cases, active cases reach 2,041, 3 deaths recorded in last 24 hours

The currently available data suggests that the JN.1 variant is neither leading to an exponential rise in the new cases nor a rise in the hospitalization and mortality.

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India saw a single-day rise of 313 new Covid cases, while the active caseload has declined to 2,041, the health ministry said on Saturday.  Three deaths: two from Karnataka and one from Maharashtra were reported in the last 24 hours.

According to the ministry website, the number of active cases in the country stood at 2,331 on Friday. The number of cases of Covid had dropped to double digits till December 5, but it began to start increasing after the emergence of a new variant and cold weather conditions.

 According to reports after December 5, the highest single day rise of 841new cases was reported on December 31, 2023, which is 0.2% of the peak cases reported in May 2021. Of the total active cases, a large majority of these (around 92%) are recovering under home isolation.

The currently available data suggests that the JN.1 variant is neither leading to an exponential rise in the new cases nor a rise in the hospitalization and mortality. India has witnessed three waves of Covid in the past with its peak incidence of daily new cases and deaths being reported during the delta wave in April June 2021.

 At its peak, 414,188 new cases and 3915 deaths were reported on May 7, 2021. Since the pandemic started in early 2020, there have have been 4.5 crore people who have got infected and this has resulted in the death of 5.3 lakh persons in a total time span of four years.

According to the ministry data, the total number of persons who have recuperated from the disease are 4.4 crore with total recovery rate recorded is 98.81%. A total number of 220.67 crore doses of Covid vaccines have been administered in India so far.  

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India registers 605 new COVID-19 cases and 4 deaths in last 24 hours

The number of people who have recovered from the disease has gone up to 4,44,81,341, an increase of 648 since Sunday morning. In Kerala a 70 year-old male with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and 81year-old male with T2DM and HTN, and in Karnataka, a 48 year old male with CA and TB died, while one person in Tripura succumbed to COVID.

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India recorded 605 fresh COVID-19 cases and four deaths in the last 24 hours. The active cases have increased to 4002, while India’s overall COVID case tally stands at over 4.5 crore (4,50,18,792). The death toll was recorded at 5,33,396 with four new deaths – two from Kerala and one each in Karnataka and Tripura – reported in the last 24 hours, the data updated at 8am stated.

The number of people who have recovered from the disease has gone up to 4,44,81,341, an increase of 648 since Sunday morning. In Kerala a 70 year-old male with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and 81year-old male with T2DM and HTN, and in Karnataka, a 48 year old male with CA and TB died, while one person in Tripura succumbed to COVID.

The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) reported that 11,838 doses of the vaccine had been administered in the country till January 7. The data is a compilation of the Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (National Centre for Disease Control), media bulletins and websites of various states at 8am on January 4.

As the winter season sets in, health experts are highlighting a sudden surge in viral infections, influenza, and COVID-19 cases. Dr Nikhil Modi, a senior pulmonologist at Indraprastha Apollo Hospital, pointed out that the decrease in temperature leads to increase in moisture in the air, low wind speed and also causes an increase in pollution levels. This contributes highly to various infections.

Due to the decrease in temperature the fog combines with the pollution in the air which further leads to the formation of smog. This condition of the atmosphere can cause different types of infections and difficulty in breathing. Both the state and the central government are keeping a close watch on the new Omicron Subvariant JN.1. J.N.1 is a Variant of Interest (VOI) which is under intense scientific scrutiny.   

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India records 774 new Covid-19 cases, 2 deaths in 24 hours

The number of daily cases was in double digits till December 5 but it started to rise again amid cold weather conditions and after the emergence of new Covid-19 variant, JN.1.

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India on Saturday had a single-day rise of 774 Covid cases while the number of active cases stood at 4,187, the Union health ministry said. As many as two deaths – one each from Tamil Nadu and Gujarat were reported in a span of 24 hours. Of the 4,187 active cases, the majority (over 92%) are recovering under home isolation.

The number of daily cases was in double digits till December 5 but it started to rise again amid cold weather conditions and after the emergence of new Covid-19 variant, JN.1. The central government has asked the state government and union territories to maintain a constant vigil amid an upward trend in the number of Covid-cases and the detection of the JN.1 sub variant in the country.

According to reports after December 5, the highest single-day rise of 841 cases was reported on December 31, 2023, which was 0.2% of the peak cases reported in May 2021. A health official said that the JN.1 variant is neither leading to an exponential rise in new cases nor a surge in hospitalisation and mortality in the country.

The Karnataka government has made the Covid test mandatory for those with Influenza like illness (ILI) or Severe Acute Respiratory Illness (SARI). Karnataka Health Minister Dinesh Gundu Rao said more than 7000 tests are being done every day and the COVID positivity rate is 3.82%. The positivity rate in the state has not come down yet.

He said those with symptoms are being monitored and tested. Those who are in isolation at home have been told to take extra care. He added it is expected that the trend of decreasing Covid cases may start next week in Karnataka. India has witnessed three waves of Covid-19 in the past with the peak incidence of daily cases and deaths being reported during the Delta wave during April-June 2021. At its peak 4,14,188 cases and 3915 deaths were reported on May 7, 2021.

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