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Demonetisation is an “also-ran” measure: RBI

Published

9 years ago

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Reserve Bank of India New Delhi. Photo: UNI

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]For the central bank, GST, insolvency and benami laws are more substantial moves to check black money[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]By Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its half-yearly Financial Stability Report (FSR), released on December 29, 2016, has surprisingly moved the demonetization drive of the Modi government to one of the many initiatives. It is not at the top of the list though it has dominated public debate on the streets and in the media.

The central bank listed the bankruptcy law and the Goods and Service Tax (GST) as the two most important factors which would influence the performance of the economy. On demonetisation, the RBI said: “Other initiatives such as the withdrawal of legal tender status of specified bank notes (SBNs) could potentially transform the domestic economy.”

It would appear that Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and other ministers and BJP spokespersons would not trumpet demonetisation as the most important decision of the two-and-a-half-year-old BJP-led NDA government.

The RBI has noted several measures taken by the government to tackle the challenge of black money:  “…the government’s resolve to take on the shadow economy through various measures are expected to deliver net direct and collateral benefits to the economy in the long run, and will also improve India’s international standing. Such measures include, among others, the income disclosure scheme, setting up of a Special Investigation Team (SIT), enacting a law regarding undisclosed foreign income and assets, amending the Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement between India and Mauritius and India and Cyprus, reaching an understanding with Switzerland for getting information on bank accounts held by Indians and amending the Benami Transactions Act. Further, the initiatives for encouraging the use of non-cash and digital payments and withdrawal of legal tender status of specified bank notes (SBNs), accompanied by changes in income tax rules are expected to result in a shift away from the significant dependence of Indian economy on cash-based transactions….”

It is evident that the government’s boast and its attempt to spread the message that demonetisation was a bold and firm response to tackle black money and the “shadow economy” does not find favour with the central bank. It does not seem to consider demonetisation as the radical move that the Prime Minister and his colleagues have tried to project it as.

Addressing the issue of “shadow economy”, the FSR notes that it is a worldwide phenomenon and that it is difficult to define it in precise terms. It says, “The term shadow economy may refer to black economy or black money. There is no uniform definition of black money in economic theory and various other terms such as ‘unaccounted income’, ‘black income’, ‘dirty money’, ‘black wealth’, ‘underground wealth’, ‘black economy’, ‘parallel economy’ are also used in this regard. In the Indian context, the White Paper on Black Money, released by Department of Revenue, Ministry of Finance in 2002 adopted a definition of black money “as assets or resources that have neither been reported to the public authorities at the time of their generation nor disclosed at any point of time during their possession.”

And it notes, “In recent literature and usage, shadow economy is also referred to as System D. Though estimating the size of the shadow economy is challenging, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) half of the world’s workers were employed in the shadow economy in 2009 (this number is likely to grow to two-thirds by 2020).”

Compared to the populist twist that the government sought to give and make it appear that demonetisation was the magic wand that would conjure away black money, the FSR lays bare the complexity of the problem. It explains in clear language the connection between shadow economy, employment and tax rates. It says, “One of the many problems with the shadow economy is that it renders official statistics unreliable and severely impacts policy formulations by governments. Besides, the loss of tax revenues may force governments to hike tax rates, which in turn may further encourage greater activity in the shadow economy. As per some analyses, in the US a 1 percentage point increase in personal income tax rates, other things being equal, tends to increase the size of the shadow economy by 1.4 percentage points. Similarly, a 1 point increase in a regulation index (ranging from 1 to 5) corresponds to a 10 per cent increase in the shadow economy. There is also evidence in some economies of dynamic mobility between the official and shadow economies depending on the relative ‘net’ wage levels; this in turn is an indication of the influence of tax rates and rigidities in labour markets on the size of the official versus shadow economies.”

And it gives its clear view as to the best way of tackling shadow economy, black money et al, and it does not suggest even in an oblique manner that demonetization is the solution, or even that it is one of the solutions. It says, “While the impact of the shadow economy on direct tax revenues is a concern, its role in contributing to indirect taxes and economic growth is debatable. The best way to contain the shadow economy is to improve governance and quality of public services, avoid excessive regulations, impose stringent penalties and have a compatible tax structure.”[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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India News

CBSE denies OSM portal data breach, terms online allegations misleading

CBSE has strongly dismissed social media allegations of a security breach in its On-Screen Marking (OSM) portal, clarifying that the exposed URL is a mere testing site containing no actual student data or exam marks.

Published

12 hours ago

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May 26, 2026

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CBSE

The Central Board of Secondary Education (CBSE) has refuted viral claims circulating on social media regarding a security breach in its On-Screen Marking (OSM) portal. In an official statement, the national education board dismissed the allegations, labeling them completely false and highly misleading.

The clarification comes after social media posts suggested that sensitive student records and internal assessment systems had been compromised by unauthorised actors. Media reports indicate that the board has categorically denied any leak of actual student marks or examination-related details.

Testing site hosted no real student details

According to the statement released by the board, the web address highlighted in the viral allegations belongs strictly to a testing environment. The board clarified that this URL is utilized purely for internal evaluations, data sampling, and platform reviews during development phases.

The board firmly reiterated that no live student details, official scoreboards, or active examination data are stored on this testing site. Authorities have advised stakeholders and students to refrain from panic and avoid circulating unverified rumors that challenge the integrity of the examination system.

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India News

Congress Dismisses Karnataka Leadership Transition Rumors After Six-Hour Delhi Meet

The Congress party has rejected ongoing rumors regarding a leadership change or a rotating Chief Minister formula in Karnataka, stating that a recent six-hour meeting in Delhi focused strictly on the upcoming Rajya Sabha and MLC elections.

Published

12 hours ago

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May 26, 2026

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The Congress party has strongly downplayed the intense political buzz surrounding a potential leadership transition or a change in the Chief Minister’s post in Karnataka. Following a marathon six-hour meeting with the state’s top leadership in New Delhi, the party explicitly rejected the ongoing speculation, labeling it as having “no reality.”

A brief statement issued to the media after the high-level meeting advised against spreading rumors, clarifying that the discussions were entirely centered on upcoming electoral strategies rather than structural changes within the state government. The party stated that the deliberations solely revolved around the state’s three vacant Rajya Sabha seats and the upcoming Member of Legislative Council (MLC) elections.

Rajya Sabha and MLC Polls Take Center Stage

The high-stakes meeting was attended by Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge, senior leader Rahul Gandhi, and party General Secretary KC Venugopal, alongside Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar.

Briefing the media post-meeting, KC Venugopal stated that conversations were strictly confined to the Rajya Sabha and MLC elections, emphasizing that there is no truth to any other political speculation. Chief Minister Siddaramaiah also confirmed that the agenda of a potential cabinet expansion or a leadership shift did not come up during the six-hour-long discussion.

Background of the Power Struggle

The question of leadership in Karnataka has remained a recurring theme for over a year. Supporters of Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar have consistently maintained that the central leadership promised a rotating Chief Ministership arrangement when the government was formed after the 2023 assembly elections.

Speculation had intensified recently as the ruling government faced local anti-incumbency pressures alongside renewed political activity from the opposition bench. Some internal reports had even indicated a push from within certain sections of the high command, including Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, for a leadership revamp.

Balancing Caste Equations and Party Structure

The central leadership has navigated the situation cautiously to maintain political stability. Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, 80, commands a powerful “Ahinda” support base—a coalition comprising minority communities, backward classes, and Dalits. This social alliance was crucial in helping the party navigate the traditional Vokkaliga and Lingayat caste dynamics during the 2023 elections.

Although the rotation issue had previously gained significant momentum when the government completed two years in office, the party high command had chosen to maintain the status quo to avoid any adverse electoral impact in neighboring assembly elections, such as in Tamil Nadu. With those elections concluded, supporters of the 64-year-old Deputy Chief Minister had expressed optimism for a transition. Shivakumar currently holds the dual responsibility of being the Deputy Chief Minister as well as the state Congress chief, signaling his critical organizational value to the party. However, for the time being, the party high command has firmly signaled that the current leadership structure will remain unchanged.

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Cricket news

Bowlers may hold the key in high-stakes IPL 2026 Qualifier 1 at Dharamsala

Although the media build-up centers on the batting heavyweight clash between Virat Kohli and Shubman Gill, the IPL 2026 Qualifier 1 in Dharamsala is set to be decided by the bowling consistency of Bhuvneshwar Kumar and Mohammed Siraj.

Published

20 hours ago

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May 26, 2026

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Flat pitches, towering sixes, and relentless run-scoring have defined the Indian Premier League (IPL) 2026 so far. However, when Gujarat Titans (GT) and Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) lock horns in Qualifier 1 at the Himachal Pradesh Cricket Association (HPCA) Stadium in Dharamsala, the contest could ultimately hinge on the bowlers.

The HPCA Stadium has proved to be unforgiving for bowlers due to its short boundaries. A teaser of what could unfold was evident during recent net sessions, where Gujarat Titans’ Jos Buttler and Royal Challengers Bengaluru’s Tim David regularly launched monstrous hits out of the stadium. In the three matches played at this venue this season, teams crossed the 200-run mark five times, with the lowest score being 199/8. An average of nearly 25 maximums per match has been hit here, promising another potential run-fest.

Moving past the Kohli vs Gill narrative

While media attention focuses on the iconic battle between the ‘King’ Virat Kohli and the ‘Prince’ Shubman Gill—hailed as the heir to Indian cricket’s batting legacy—the true deciding factor might lie elsewhere. Both batters look in pristine touch. Gill occupies the second spot in the Orange Cap race with 616 runs from 13 matches, trailing behind his opening partner Sai Sudharsan. Meanwhile, Kohli has bounced back from a brief mid-tournament slump by smashing a sparkling century, taking his tally to 557 runs this season.

Despite the incredible batting firepower on display, the bowling units are expected to dictate which team blinks last. Media interactions with team managements highlighted that consistency and self-belief within the respective bowling departments have been the defining traits of both squads this season.

Powerplay battles to decide the finalist

For RCB, veteran pacer Bhuvneshwar Kumar leads the charge alongside Kagiso Rabada for GT, with both spearheads locked as the joint-highest wicket-takers across the two sides at 24 wickets each. Bhuvneshwar holds a slight edge due to a superior economy rate. Close behind them is GT’s Mohammed Siraj, who has taken 17 wickets so far. With supporting acts like Josh Hazlewood, Jason Holder, Prasidh Krishna, Rasikh Salam Dar, and spinners Rashid Khan and Krunal Pandya in the mix, the match promises an intriguing tactical battle.

Gujarat Titans’ assistant coach Vijay Dahiya acknowledged that negotiating Bhuvneshwar Kumar in the powerplay will be a massive task, but reminded that GT possesses equal firepower in Siraj and Rabada. “If you talk about the powerplay, our numbers are among the best in this tournament,” Dahiya stated.

RCB captain Rajat Patidar echoed similar views, placing immense faith in his bowling attack to stop GT’s prolific opening duo of Gill and Sudharsan. “Our strength is bowling. The way we bowl in the powerplay will be very crucial. We’ll look for early wickets and that is what we have done throughout the tournament,” Patidar remarked.

In a tournament dominated by towering batting displays, the team whose bowling unit holds its nerve under the Dharamsala lights will seal a direct spot in the IPL final.

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