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Exports fall in four years of Modi govt, in 2017 export-to-GDP ratio was lowest since 2005

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Exports fall in four years of Modi govt, in 2017 export-to-GDP ratio was lowest since 2005

Exports of goods to Japan and countries in Africa and Latin America dropped over the four years of Narendra Modi government and grew at single digits to other regions, an IndiaSpend analysis of government data has found.

In yet another blow to Modi government’s propaganda of all round progress, the analysis found that in contrast to its performance in this aspect, the 10 years of the two United Progressive Alliance (UPA-1 and UPA-2) administrations saw 11 percent to 33 percent growth in India’s merchandise exports. Services exports are excluded from this analysis because they are limited to certain geographies because of trade agreements, said IndiaSpend.

Moreover, this decline cannot be attributed to the global trend. The growth rate of goods traded across the world grew 3 percent over the four years to 2018 and grew by 3.3 percent (2009 to 2013) – according to International Monetary Fund.

Various experts attributed the Indian export decline to domestic factors, such as demonetisation, a new goods and services tax (GST) and a new bankruptcy code, said IndiaSpend.

Merchandise exports to China grew between 2014 and 2018 but at less than 1 percent while imports grew at 11 percent; during 10 years of UPA rule, exports to China grew 13 percent and imports 30 percent.

India’s exports to Africa between 2014 and 2018 dipped by 4.22 percent and imports increased 1 percent; during 10 years of UPA rule, exports to Africa increased 22 percent and imports 59 percent.

Overall Indian imports of merchandise grew by 1.6 percent to $465 billion over this period.

India’s exports-to-gross-domestic-product (GDP) ratio at 11.44 percent in 2017 was the lowest since 2005, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Outlook Report 2018.

High trade deficit

Slowing exports and increase in imports (an average annual increase of 1.6 percent from 2014-15 to 2017-18) has pushed the trade deficit from $137 billion in 2014-15 to $162 billion in 2017-18, the highest since 2012-13.

“We are facing serious headwinds at a time when the global economy post 2008 had become extremely fragile,” commerce minister Suresh Prabhu was quoted as saying in The Indian Express on 18 June, 2018.

India’s trade openness – the sum of exports and imports to GDP – was 27 percent in 2016, according to the IMF database, compared to an all-time high of 43 percent in 2012.  Trade openness is an indicator of the economy’s participation in global trade.

“The first of the policy moves was the unique demonetisation experiment,” Ruchir Sharma, chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in The Times of India on 4 October, 2017.

“The second was the goods and services tax, which was supposed to bring India in line with global standards but instead added typically Indian layers of complexity. These policies disrupted local businesses, including exporters. Imports have surged to meet consumer demand, widening the trade deficit and cutting into GDP growth.”

The view was echoed by economists Dharmakirti Joshi, Adhish Verma and Pankhuri Tandon. “The implementation of the goods and services tax and associated glitches have had an impact, particularly on small and medium enterprises – evident in low export growth in gems and jewellery, textiles, and leather sectors,” they wrote in a report for Crisil, a ratings agency.

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Amit Shah praises Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation, says Nation above post

Amit Shah hailed Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation as Union Education Minister, saying BJP places the nation and students above any position while highlighting the government’s commitment to examination reforms.

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Amit Shah

Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Saturday praised Dharmendra Pradhan’s decision to step down as Union Education Minister, saying the move reflected the Bharatiya Janata Party’s commitment to placing the nation and students above any political position.

In a post on X, Shah said that for BJP workers, the country, its youth and students are more important than any office. He described Pradhan’s resignation as an example of the party’s guiding principle of prioritising national interest over personal ambition.

Shah highlights government’s focus on exam reforms

Amit Shah said the Narendra Modi-led government respects the sentiments of students and remains committed to strengthening the examination system following concerns over alleged paper leaks.

He said the Centre has introduced strict measures to ensure severe punishment for those involved in examination paper leaks and expressed confidence that these steps would deliver justice to students who cleared the National Eligibility-cum-Entrance Test (NEET).

Praises Pradhan’s work as Education Minister

Recalling Dharmendra Pradhan’s tenure, Shah highlighted several initiatives undertaken during his time in the Education Ministry. He credited Pradhan with helping implement the National Education Policy (NEP), expanding PM SHRI schools, promoting digital education, strengthening skill development and improving coordination between industry and academic institutions.

Shah also said Pradhan worked towards making examinations more inclusive and student-centric, adding that his tenure reflected his commitment to the vision of a developed India.

Resignation follows NEET controversy

Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation comes amid nationwide protests over alleged irregularities in the NEET examination and growing demands for accountability.

The resignation has triggered political reactions across party lines. While opposition parties have described the development as a result of sustained student protests, BJP leaders have projected it as an example of accountability and commitment to national interest.

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Assam flood death toll rises to 66, over 6.5 lakh people still affected

Assam’s flood situation improved slightly on Saturday, but more than 6.54 lakh people remain affected in six districts. Four fresh deaths have pushed the state’s flood toll to 66.

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Assam floods

The flood situation in Assam showed marginal improvement on Saturday, though the disaster continued to impact more than 6.54 lakh people across six districts. Four more deaths were reported during the day, taking the total number of fatalities in this year’s floods to 66.

According to the Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA), three of the latest deaths were reported from Sivasagar district, while one person lost their life in Charaideo.

The number of affected people declined from over 7.05 lakh across nine districts on Friday to 6,54,800 across six districts on Saturday, indicating a gradual improvement in the overall situation.

Sivasagar remains the worst-hit district

Among the affected districts, Sivasagar continues to be the worst hit, with nearly 2.9 lakh people impacted by the floods. Charaideo follows with around 1.9 lakh affected residents, while more than 1.3 lakh people remain affected in Jorhat.

The other districts still facing flood-related challenges are Dibrugarh, Golaghat and Nagaon.

Relief operations continue across affected areas

The ASDMA said the state administration is operating 274 relief camps and aid distribution centres across the affected districts. Around 18,902 displaced people are currently taking shelter at these facilities.

The latest daily bulletin also stated that floodwaters have inundated 810 villages across the state, while 34,970.8 hectares of agricultural land have suffered damage.

Rivers flowing above danger level

The floods have also damaged embankments, roads, bridges and other public infrastructure in several areas.

Authorities said the Dikhou River in Sivasagar and the Dhansiri River at Numaligarh are flowing above the danger level, and officials continue to closely monitor the situation.

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UP Government forms new SIT led by 3 IPS officers to probe Ayodhya Ram Temple donation theft

The Uttar Pradesh government has formed a new SIT led by three IPS officers to investigate the alleged Ram Temple donation theft case in Ayodhya following Supreme Court directions.

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Ram Mandir

The Uttar Pradesh government has reconstituted a Special Investigation Team (SIT) headed by IG Kiran S, with DIG Somen Verma and SSP Dr Gaurav Grover as members, to investigate the alleged theft of donations meant for the Ram Temple in Ayodhya. 

The move comes after directions from the Supreme Court, which sought a reconstituted investigation team to ensure an independent and comprehensive probe into the allegations.

The newly formed SIT is expected to continue the investigation and submit a status report before the Supreme Court on July 27.

Senior IPS officers to lead the probe

According to the state government, the investigation will now be supervised by senior IPS officers.  The revamped SIT has been tasked with examining all aspects of the alleged embezzlement of temple donations and carrying the investigation forward.

The Supreme Court had observed that criminal investigations and technical examination of theft-related cases are more effectively handled by experienced police officers, leading to the reconstitution of the SIT under senior IPS leadership.

Probe to continue under court supervision

The case relates to the alleged embezzlement of offerings (chadhava) donated by devotees at the Shri Ram Janmabhoomi Temple in Ayodhya.

The Supreme Court is monitoring the investigation and will review the SIT’s status report at the next hearing.

Authorities are expected to continue examining evidence collected during the earlier stages of the investigation as the newly constituted SIT proceeds with the case.

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