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IOD may yet derail a good monsoon

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IOD may yet derail a good monsoon

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]IMD and private forecasters have predicted normal rainfall this year, but meteorologists are watching out to see how this little-known climatic phenomenon plays out

By Ratnadeep Choudhary

Both the Indian Meteorological Department and the private forecaster Skymet have confirmed that the disruptive El Niño won’t impact the Indian monsoon this year. “The distribution of rainfall is expected to be good… the country will receive 96 per cent of Long Period Average,” IMD chief KJ Ramesh said. However, it may be too early to celebrate. The Indian Ocean Dipole, a little-known weather phenomenon, may yet affect the farmer’s sole saviour. Predictions made by the IMD have often been far from accurate over the years.

Nicknamed the Christ Child, El Niño is an unusual warm current in the Pacific Ocean. It is a result of the oscillation of the ocean-atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. During El-Niño, the cold trade winds are replaced by warm winds. It disrupts climatic conditions in various parts of the world and is known to have an adverse impact on the Indian monsoon as well.

Indian Ocean Dipole is the phenomenon involving different temperatures along the western and eastern sides of the Indian Ocean at Arabian Sea and near Indonesia. A positive IOD generally has a favourable impact on the monsoon and it also reverses the impact of El Niño.

IMD has predicted that the impact of IOD seems neutral this monsoon. The department is closely monitoring sea surface conditions and would release its next forecast early June.

Scientifically, summer monsoon rainfall and its correlation with IOD are not conclusively proven. However, statistical data of IMD shows that in four of the 15 El Niño years, IOD was positive. In three of these (positive-IOD) years, rainfall was normal—96-104 percent of the predicted rainfall.

As the Indian economy is an agriculture-driven economy which depends on monsoon rainfall, a normal monsoon means that food prices remain under check. A total of 16 percent of the Indian GDP is dependent on monsoon and 50 percent of India’s 1.2 billion strong population is involved in agricultural production.

But a bad monsoon would affect other sectors as well. Industries such as fertilizer, food processing and agro-machinery have a considerable stake in a good monsoon. A positive monsoon would mean cut in interest rates by the RBI and the negative impact could lead to a rise in the overall inflation. Also, if the GST bill is passed by the parliament in the monsoon session, it would complement a good monsoon and would contribute to the growth of the GDP of the country.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

2024 Lok Sabha Elections

PM Modi says Congress leaders consider themselves above Lord Ram

PM Modi slammed Congress during a rally in Chhattisgarh, ahead of the Lok Sabha elections 2024

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi slammed the Congress party for declining to attend the pran pratishtha ritual at the Ayodhya Ram temple on January 22 this year.

The prime minister said Congress leaders consider themselves above Lord Ram and denied invitation for Pran Pratishtha at Ram Temple, while speaking at a rally in Janjgir-Champa, Chhattisgarh. The PM question the people present at the rally that is it not a disrespect of Mata Shabri? Congress leaders inclination toward appeasement politics runs in their family.

For political appeasement, they won’t think twice about stealing the rights of Adivasis, the poor, and Dalits. Poor, young, and women are BJP’s top priorities, Modi said.

PM Modi criticized the Congress again during the rally for claiming that the BJP would alter the constitution.

The leaders of Congress recite the same old phrases whenever an election is about to happen, the PM said. He also said they claim that if the BJP wins power, it will renounce the constitution and abolish reservations. For how long will you continue selling lies?” he asked.

The prime minister continued saying that nobody can change the Constitution, even if Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar were to come and insist on it, it wouldn’t happen.

Those in the Congress threaten to break Modi’s head. Nobody can harm Modi as long as the mothers and sisters of this county stands by him. These mothers and sisters are Raksha Kavach, Modi remarked.

The prime minister further attacked the Congress after Viriato Fernandes, the party’s candidate for South Goa, asserted that Goa was forced to adopt the Indian Constitution.

Referring to his conversation with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Fernandes said he had told him, when Goa was liberated in the year 1961, the Indian Constitution was forced upon us.

The prime minister said, Congress candidate from Goa says Constitution was forced upon Goans; is this not an insult of Ambedkar and Constitution.

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2024 Lok Sabha Elections

Amit Shah says neither Congress nor Trinamool chief Mamata Banerjee can interfere with CAA

Amit Shah revealed the BJP’s target for West Bengal and said they have set a target of winning 35 Lok Sabha seats from West Bengal.

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Union home minister Amit Shah on Tuesday said neither Congress nor Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee can interfere with the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). He was speaking at the Karandighi rally in West Bengal where he also made the prediction as to how many seats BJP will win in the Lok Sabha elections in West Bengal.

The union home minister asked the masses to cut the money culture. Amit Shah revealed the BJP’s target for West Bengal and said they have set a target of winning 35 Lok Sabha seats from West Bengal. In 2019 Lok Sabha elections the BJP had won 18 out of 42 seats in West Bengal. He asked Mamata Banerjee, what problem will she have if the Buddhist and Hindu refugees from Bangladesh get citizenship in India?

Shah further added if the people of West Bengal want to stop infiltration in the state, then they will have to make Narendra Modi the Prime Minister of India again. He said if the people of West Bengal want to free Bengal of violence, stop infiltration in the state, give citizenship to refugees, to stop disrespecting mothers and sisters of the state as it happened in Sandeshkhali, then  only way is to make Narendra Modi the Prime Minister.

Amit Shah said that PM Modi had sent Rs 7 lakh crore to West Bengal but the TMC indulged in corruption. He said one can see the houses of Trinamool Congress leaders; 10 years ago they used to live in a hut, moved on cycle and now all of them have 4-storey houses and move around in big cars. He added this is the money of people of West Bengal.

The Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), will make it easier for non-Muslim refugees from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh to get Indian citizenship, was enacted in 2019. But the rules were notified in March this year by the Centre.

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2024 Lok Sabha Elections

Prime Minister Narendra Modi says listening to Hanuman Chalisa under Congress rule is a crime

PM Modi was addressing an election rally in Rajasthan’s Tonk-Sawai Madhopur, on a day as India celebrates Hanuman Jayanti.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday hit out at the Congress and said even listening to Hanuman Chalisa has become a crime under the party’s rule. The Prime Minister also said it was difficult to follow one’s faith under the party and accused it of hatching a deep conspiracy to snatch people’s wealth and distribute it among selected few people in the society. PM Modi was addressing an election rally in Rajasthan’s Tonk-Sawai Madhopur, on a day as India celebrates Hanuman Jayanti.

PM Modi said in a state like Rajasthan where people chant Ram-Ram, Congress banned Ram Navami. He reffered to the redistribution of wealth remarks he had made during a rally in Rajasthan’s Banswara on Sunday and said it has angered the Congress and INDI Alliance so much that they have started throwing abuses at Modi everywhere.

The Prime Minister said that Congress has written in their manifesto that they will survey the wealth. He said the Congress leadership had said in a speech that an X-ray of wealth will be done. He added when Modi exposed the secret then the hidden agenda came out and this has left the people trembling. PM Modi further added that the Congress party has played with the Constitution of the India.

He said when the Constitution was drafted, reservations based on religion were opposed, so that Scheduled Casts (SC), Scheduled Tribes (ST) and Other Backward Classes (OBC) could get protection. He said former Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh had said that Muslims have the first right to the country’s resources.  The prime minister further added Congress’s ideology has always been of appeasement and vote bank politics. He said stones would still be pelted in Jammu and Kashmir, and enemies would still be cutting off the heads of India’s soldiers had Congress been in power.

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