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Monsoon 2025 arrives in Kerala, earliest onset in 16 years, IMD forecasts above-normal rainfall

The 2025 monsoon season begins with an early onset over Kerala on May 24, the fastest since 2009, as the IMD predicts above-normal rainfall and stable weather conditions.

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Heavy rainfall

The southwest monsoon officially reached Kerala on Saturday, marking its earliest onset over the Indian mainland since 2009. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), this early arrival—on May 24—precedes the usual June 1 onset by a full week.

Meteorological records show that since 1975, only once has the monsoon arrived earlier than this—on May 19 in 1990. Despite this, experts caution that the onset date doesn’t necessarily indicate the quantity or distribution of rainfall expected throughout the monsoon season.

Typically, the monsoon begins its journey over Kerala by June 1, sweeps across the country by July 8, and starts to retreat around September 17. The full withdrawal usually concludes by October 15.

Here’s how recent years compare:

  • 2024: May 30
  • 2023: June 8
  • 2022: May 29
  • 2021: June 3
  • 2020: June 1
  • 2019: June 8
  • 2018: May 29

This year’s May 24 onset is a significant deviation from this pattern, as confirmed by IMD data.

For the 2025 monsoon, the IMD has projected above-normal cumulative rainfall. The department has also ruled out the presence of El Niño conditions, which typically suppress rainfall in the Indian subcontinent.

Based on IMD’s long-period average of 87 cm over 50 years, rainfall in the range of 96% to 104% is considered normal. For reference:

  • Above normal: 105%-110%
  • Excess: Over 110%
  • Below normal: 90%-95%
  • Deficient: Below 90%

In 2024, India recorded 934.8 mm of rainfall, equating to 108% of the average—the highest since 2020.

Past five-year rainfall data:

  • 2024: 934.8 mm (108%)
  • 2023: 820 mm (94.4%)
  • 2022: 925 mm
  • 2021: 870 mm
  • 2020: 958 mm

The monsoon season is critical to India’s economy and food security. It directly impacts the agricultural sector, which sustains the livelihood of around 42% of the population and contributes 18.2% to the national GDP. Additionally, the rains play a vital role in replenishing reservoirs essential for drinking water and hydroelectric power generation.

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Supreme Court flags risk of lawlessness, pauses FIRs against ED officers in Bengal case

The Supreme Court paused FIRs against ED officers in the Bengal I-PAC raid case, warning that obstruction of central probes could lead to lawlessness and seeking responses from the Centre and state.

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The Supreme Court on Wednesday delivered a sharp rebuke to the Mamata Banerjee-led West Bengal government, pausing FIRs lodged against officers of the Enforcement Directorate over searches linked to political consultancy I-PAC. The court said the case raises serious questions about interference in investigations and warned that failure to address them could lead to “lawlessness”.

A bench of Justice Prashant Mishra and Justice Vipul Pancholi sought replies from the Ministry of Home Affairs, the Department of Personnel and Training, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress government on the ED’s plea. The central agency has also sought the suspension of Bengal Director General of Police Rajeev Kumar and Kolkata Police Commissioner Manoj Kumar Verma, and a probe by the CBI. The matter will be heard next on February 3.

The ruling follows a standoff between the ED and the Bengal government after the agency conducted searches at premises linked to I-PAC, which manages election campaigns for the Trinamool Congress, in connection with a corruption case.

Court questions obstruction of central probes

Recording its prima facie view, the Supreme Court said the petition raised a “serious issue” concerning investigations by central agencies and possible obstruction by state authorities.

“There are larger questions which emerge and if not answered shall lead to lawlessness. If central agencies are working bona fide to probe a serious offence, a question arises: Can they be obstructed by party activities?” the bench observed.

Earlier in the day, the court also expressed disturbance over scenes of chaos in the Calcutta High Court during a hearing related to the same dispute.

ED alleges interference, seeks action against top cops

The Enforcement Directorate accused the West Bengal administration of interfering with its searches and investigation. Appearing for the agency, Solicitor General Tushar Mehta alleged that evidence was removed from the residence of an I-PAC co-founder and argued that such actions could encourage state police officers to aid and abet obstruction. He sought suspension of senior police officials.

Describing the disruption in the Calcutta High Court on January 9, Mehta called it “mobocracy”, saying a group of lawyers unconnected to the case disrupted proceedings, forcing an adjournment. The bench asked whether the high court had been turned into a protest site, to which Mehta responded that messages had circulated calling lawyers to gather at a specific time.

Banerjee’s counsel defends move, cites election confidentiality

Senior advocate Kapil Sibal, appearing for Mamata Banerjee, questioned the timing of the ED’s presence in Bengal ahead of Assembly elections. He said the last development in the coal scam case dated back to February 2024 and argued that I-PAC handled election-related work under a formal contract with the Trinamool Congress.

According to Sibal, election data stored at the premises was confidential and critical to campaign strategy. He said the party leadership had a right to protect such information.

Representing the Bengal government and the DGP, senior advocate Abhishek Singhvi referred to the January 9 disruption but argued it could not justify parallel proceedings in different courts. The bench responded that emotions “cannot go out of hand repeatedly”.

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Shashi Tharoor warns US tariffs on Iran could make Indian exports unviable

Shashi Tharoor has warned that cumulative US tariffs linked to Iran trade could rise to 75%, making most Indian exports to America commercially unviable.

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Shashi Tharoor

Congress MP and chairman of the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs Shashi Tharoor has expressed serious concern over the United States’ latest tariff announcement targeting countries that continue to trade with Iran, warning that such measures could severely impact Indian exporters.

Reacting to the decision by US President Donald Trump to impose a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran, Tharoor said Indian companies would struggle to remain competitive if cumulative tariffs rise to 75%. He noted that India was already at a disadvantage compared to several regional competitors.

Tharoor said he had been troubled by the US tariff regime from the outset, pointing out that India was initially subjected to a 25% tariff while rival exporting nations in Southeast Asia were charged significantly lower rates. According to him, countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan and Bangladesh faced tariffs ranging between 15% and 19% on labour-intensive goods exported to the US.

He explained that the situation had worsened with additional sanctions-linked duties. With the existing 25% tariff, another 25% related to Russia-linked sanctions, and a further 25% tied to Iran-related measures, the total burden could rise to 75%. At that level, Tharoor said, most Indian exports would no longer be commercially viable in the American market.

While noting that certain sectors such as pharmaceuticals may continue to export as they are not heavily impacted by sanctions, he warned that other key export categories would be hit hard. Tharoor described the situation as very serious and said it required urgent attention.

The Congress MP also expressed hope that the newly appointed US Ambassador could help facilitate progress on a bilateral trade agreement. He stressed that India could not afford to wait through the entire year for a deal and said an agreement should ideally be concluded in the first quarter of 2026.

Commenting on recent diplomatic engagements between India and the US, Tharoor underlined the need for faster consensus on trade issues. He said that at tariff levels as high as 75%, the idea of a meaningful trade deal loses relevance. According to him, a rate closer to what the UK enjoys with the US, around 15%, would reflect the respect due to a strategic partner.

Tharoor’s remarks come after President Trump announced that any country continuing business with Iran would face a 25% tariff on all trade with the United States, a move that has raised concerns among several trading partners.

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Indian Army symbolizes selfless service and duty, says PM Modi on Army Day

PM Narendra Modi on Army Day praised the Indian Army as a symbol of selfless service and unwavering duty, saluting the courage and sacrifice of its soldiers.

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On the occasion of Army Day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday paid tribute to the Indian Army, describing its soldiers as a symbol of selfless service who protect the nation with unwavering resolve, even in the most challenging circumstances.

In a message shared on social media platform X, the prime minister said the country salutes the courage and steadfast commitment of Indian Army personnel. He noted that their dedication to duty inspires confidence and gratitude among citizens across the country.

“Our soldiers stand as a symbol of selfless service, safeguarding the nation with steadfast resolve, at times under the most challenging conditions,” PM Modi said. He added that the nation remembers with deep respect those who have laid down their lives while serving the country.

Army Day is observed every year on January 15 to commemorate a historic moment in India’s military history. The day marks the appointment of Field Marshal K M Cariappa as the first Indian Commander-in-Chief of the Indian Army in 1949, when he took over from British officer General Sir F R R Bucher.

The occasion serves as a reminder of the Indian Army’s role in defending the country’s sovereignty and honour, as well as the sacrifices made by its personnel in the line of duty.

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