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Monsoon this year likely to be delayed, may be below normal as well

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Monsoon this year likely to be delayed, may be below normal as well

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The Southwest monsoon that accounts for about 75 per cent of rainfall in India and is the most anticipated weather phenomenon in the country is likely to miss its date with Kerala on June 1 and arrive a few days late.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast for 2019 released today (Wednesday, May 15), as reported by The Indian Express (IE) and The Hindu, says it would hit the Kerala coast six days late, on June 6. Private weather forecaster Skymet puts its arrival date as June 4.

In 2017, the onset over Kerala happened two days in advance (May 30) whereas in 2018, the onset was realised on May 29, which was three days preceding the normal onset date over Kerala.

In Andaman and Nicobar islands, the IMD said, monsoon will arrive towards the end of this week, later than normal. It usually arrives over the islands anytime between May 10 – May 15.

“Conditions are becoming favourable for monsoon to advance onto Andaman and Nicobar islands around May18 or May 19,” the forecast suggested.

Generally, the monsoon reaches Kerala within 10 days of reaching the Andamans. However, meteorologists had indicated that the monsoon — impeded by high temperatures in the seas surrounding India, and an El Nino — will advance sluggishly after reaching Kerala.

To forecast the monsoon arrival, the IMD uses a customised weather model which, it stated, had been wrong only once – in 2015 – since 2014.

This model crunches 6 meteorological parameters: the minimum temperatures over northwest India; the pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula; the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over the South China Sea; the lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian Ocean; the upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean; and the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over the southwest Pacific region.

The model has a built-in error margin of four days and prediction of aJune 6 onset can mean any day from June 2-10.

The monsoon’s arrival time, the IMD said, had no bearing to the quantum of rainfall in June-September period.

The IMD said it expected a “normal monsoon” but pointed to a “significant probability” of below normal rains.

But the Skymet forecast could e reason for worry. Skymet has maintained, in line with its earlier forecast, that the rains would be poor this year at 93 per cent of the normal.

According to its forecast, the drought-affected regions of Marathwada and Vidarbha in Maharashtra, along with parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, will face nearly 9 per cent deficiency in the June-September rains, reported The Business Standard (BS).

Rajasthan, northern Karnataka and Rayalseema could also see poor rain, Skymet said. While the model error for the amount of rain is 5 per cent, that for the date of arrival is two days.

“All four regions are going to witness lower than normal rain this season. East and northeast India and the central parts will get poorer rain than northwest India and the southern peninsula,” Jatin Singh, managing director at Skymet, was reported as saying.

The initial advance of the monsoon over peninsular India in June is going to be slow, the weather agency said. What does not augur well for the economy is that Skymet expects multiple agrarian regions to have a serious shortfall in rain.

On the other hand, observations by global weather agencies that show weaker El Nino conditions in the monsoon period could limit the scarcity to some extent. All long-range forecasts, however, are prone to error due to the complexity of the Indian monsoon system. Skymet’s forecast of a fully normal monsoon (100 per cent) last year was proven wrong when the actual rainfall turned out to be 91 per cent of the normal.

Independent weather observers concurred with Skymet on the onset date, the BS report said. They said temperatures in the mainland dropped a bit due to a series of western disturbances, which are causing thunderstorms in Delhi and other states. This is delaying the development of low-pressure areas in central India and desert regions, they added.

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India News

Election Commission responds after Kejriwal questions BJP’s involvement in home voting process

Upon approval, a polling team, comprising election officials and security personnel, will visit the voter’s residence prior to election day to facilitate the voting process.

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The Election Commission of India (ECI) issued a detailed clarification regarding the home voting facility for the upcoming Delhi Assembly elections scheduled for February 5, 2025. This initiative, designed to enhance accessibility for senior citizens (over 85 years old) and persons with disabilities (PwD), requires eligible voters to submit Form 12D to apply.

Upon approval, a polling team, comprising election officials and security personnel, will visit the voter’s residence prior to election day to facilitate the voting process.

Crucially, the ECI clarified that candidates or their authorized representatives will be permitted to accompany the polling team during these home visits. This provision addresses concerns raised by Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader Arvind Kejriwal, who had previously highlighted a video showing BJP representatives present during a home voting event.

While the ECI statement did not directly mention Kejriwal or any specific political party, the inclusion of candidate representatives aims to ensure transparency and alleviate concerns about potential irregularities. The commission’s statement emphasizes that the presence of representatives is permissible to uphold fairness and prevent any accusations of undue influence.

The ECI has received a significant number of applications for this facility: 6,447 from senior citizens and 1,058 from PwD voters. To date, 1,271 senior citizens and 120 PwD voters have already cast their ballots through this home voting system. The process itself involves the polling team providing the voter with a ballot paper, overseeing the casting of the vote, and ensuring strict adherence to ECI guidelines regarding confidentiality. To maintain transparency and accountability, the entire process is recorded on video.

The ECI unequivocally stated that participation in the home voting option is entirely voluntary. Voters choosing this method will not be allowed to cast their vote at a regular polling station on election day.

The commission reiterated its commitment to conducting free and fair elections and underscored the importance of this initiative in promoting inclusive participation in the democratic process. Voters facing any difficulties are urged to contact their local Returning Officer (RO) or district Election Officer (DEO), or utilize the central helpline at 1950.

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India News

76th Republic Day: US sends warm wishes to India, says defining relationship of the 21st century

The meeting with his Quad counterparts—External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar of India, Takeshi Iwaya of Japan, and Penny Wong of Australia—focused on enhancing economic opportunities and ensuring peace and security in the Indo-Pacific. It served as a practical demonstration of the commitment to the strategic vision articulated in his Republic Day statement.

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The United States marked India’s 76th Republic Day with effusive praise, highlighting the enduring strength of the world’s largest democracy and the burgeoning partnership between the two nations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in a statement released on the occasion, extended warm congratulations to the people of India, emphasizing the significance of the Indian Constitution as the bedrock of this vibrant democracy. He went beyond simple well-wishes, however, painting a picture of a rapidly strengthening bilateral relationship destined for even greater heights.

Rubio’s statement explicitly described the US-India partnership as “the defining relationship of the 21st century,” a bold assertion reflecting the growing strategic alignment and mutual economic interests between the two nations. This statement was not merely ceremonial; it underscored the deepening cooperation across various sectors, from space research to joint efforts within the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad).

The Quad, comprising the US, India, Japan, and Australia, received significant attention in Rubio’s remarks. He emphasized the alliance’s crucial role in promoting a “free, open, and prosperous” Indo-Pacific region, a clear signal of the shared commitment to counterbalancing China’s influence in the region.

This emphasis was reinforced by Rubio’s actions earlier in the week, hosting a crucial meeting of Quad foreign ministers at the US Department of State. This meeting, his first official engagement as Secretary of State, underscored the immediate priority given to strengthening the Quad alliance and its collaborative efforts.

The meeting with his Quad counterparts—External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar of India, Takeshi Iwaya of Japan, and Penny Wong of Australia—focused on enhancing economic opportunities and ensuring peace and security in the Indo-Pacific. It served as a practical demonstration of the commitment to the strategic vision articulated in his Republic Day statement.

Furthermore, Secretary Rubio’s bilateral meeting with External Affairs Minister Jaishankar in Washington D.C. further cemented the strengthening ties between the two countries. The discussions covered a broad range of topics, including regional issues and avenues for further deepening the US-India relationship.

A notable point of discussion, as highlighted in an official press release, included a shared commitment to addressing concerns related to irregular migration, an area of mutual interest requiring collaborative solutions. This commitment, alongside the focus on economic ties, demonstrated the multifaceted nature of the burgeoning partnership, extending beyond strategic security concerns.

India’s own Republic Day celebrations showcased the nation’s unique blend of cultural diversity, unity, and military strength. The grand parade on Kartavya Path served as a vivid display of national pride and the successful integration of diverse elements into a cohesive and powerful nation. The presence of Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto as the Chief Guest further underscored India’s growing global influence and its capacity to foster strong relationships with key international partners.

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India News

Ratan Tata featured in Jharkhand’s Republic Day tableau, pic surfaces

By celebrating both its industrial achievements and its vibrant cultural traditions, the tableau offered a nuanced and multifaceted portrayal of Jharkhand, highlighting its progress while deeply respecting its heritage.

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Jharkhand’s Republic Day tableau, a vibrant spectacle of colour and movement, presented a compelling narrative of the state’s journey from its rich heritage to its remarkable progress. The tableau, aptly titled “Swarnim Jharkhand: A Tradition of Heritage and Progress,” served as a powerful visual testament to the state’s multifaceted identity. Central to this narrative was the pivotal role played by the late industrialist, Ratan Tata, whose visionary leadership laid the groundwork for much of Jharkhand’s subsequent development.

The tableau’s design was meticulously crafted to showcase this multifaceted narrative. At its heart was Jamshedpur, India’s first planned industrial city, a legacy of Tata’s pioneering efforts. This iconic city, depicted in vivid detail, served as a powerful symbol of industrial growth and modernization. However, the tableau astutely avoided portraying a solely industrial narrative. It carefully integrated elements celebrating Jharkhand’s cultural richness and its commitment to social progress.

A striking image of two young girls engaged with laptop computers underscored Jharkhand’s significant strides in education. This symbolized the state’s dedication to expanding educational access, particularly for tribal children in both urban and rural areas, representing a crucial investment in the future.

The tableau cleverly juxtaposed this modern image with vibrant representations of traditional art forms. Sohrai and Khobar paintings, meticulously crafted by tribal artists, were displayed prominently, showcasing the enduring legacy of Jharkhand’s artistic heritage. Adding to the spectacle, performers enacted the energetic Chhau dance of Seraikela, a captivating dance form deeply rooted in the state’s cultural identity.

The tableau also subtly highlighted the contributions of women in Jharkhand’s economic landscape, acknowledging their significant role in generating employment and driving economic growth. This balanced depiction of industrial progress and cultural preservation made the tableau a truly comprehensive representation of Jharkhand’s identity.

By celebrating both its industrial achievements and its vibrant cultural traditions, the tableau offered a nuanced and multifaceted portrayal of Jharkhand, highlighting its progress while deeply respecting its heritage.

The inclusion of the Jaduguda uranium plant subtly acknowledged the state’s contribution to India’s nuclear energy program. In essence, the tableau was a powerful and memorable celebration of Jharkhand’s journey, skillfully weaving together its past, present, and future.

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