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Monsoon this year likely to be delayed, may be below normal as well

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Monsoon this year likely to be delayed, may be below normal as well

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The Southwest monsoon that accounts for about 75 per cent of rainfall in India and is the most anticipated weather phenomenon in the country is likely to miss its date with Kerala on June 1 and arrive a few days late.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast for 2019 released today (Wednesday, May 15), as reported by The Indian Express (IE) and The Hindu, says it would hit the Kerala coast six days late, on June 6. Private weather forecaster Skymet puts its arrival date as June 4.

In 2017, the onset over Kerala happened two days in advance (May 30) whereas in 2018, the onset was realised on May 29, which was three days preceding the normal onset date over Kerala.

In Andaman and Nicobar islands, the IMD said, monsoon will arrive towards the end of this week, later than normal. It usually arrives over the islands anytime between May 10 – May 15.

“Conditions are becoming favourable for monsoon to advance onto Andaman and Nicobar islands around May18 or May 19,” the forecast suggested.

Generally, the monsoon reaches Kerala within 10 days of reaching the Andamans. However, meteorologists had indicated that the monsoon — impeded by high temperatures in the seas surrounding India, and an El Nino — will advance sluggishly after reaching Kerala.

To forecast the monsoon arrival, the IMD uses a customised weather model which, it stated, had been wrong only once – in 2015 – since 2014.

This model crunches 6 meteorological parameters: the minimum temperatures over northwest India; the pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula; the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over the South China Sea; the lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian Ocean; the upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean; and the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over the southwest Pacific region.

The model has a built-in error margin of four days and prediction of aJune 6 onset can mean any day from June 2-10.

The monsoon’s arrival time, the IMD said, had no bearing to the quantum of rainfall in June-September period.

The IMD said it expected a “normal monsoon” but pointed to a “significant probability” of below normal rains.

But the Skymet forecast could e reason for worry. Skymet has maintained, in line with its earlier forecast, that the rains would be poor this year at 93 per cent of the normal.

According to its forecast, the drought-affected regions of Marathwada and Vidarbha in Maharashtra, along with parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, will face nearly 9 per cent deficiency in the June-September rains, reported The Business Standard (BS).

Rajasthan, northern Karnataka and Rayalseema could also see poor rain, Skymet said. While the model error for the amount of rain is 5 per cent, that for the date of arrival is two days.

“All four regions are going to witness lower than normal rain this season. East and northeast India and the central parts will get poorer rain than northwest India and the southern peninsula,” Jatin Singh, managing director at Skymet, was reported as saying.

The initial advance of the monsoon over peninsular India in June is going to be slow, the weather agency said. What does not augur well for the economy is that Skymet expects multiple agrarian regions to have a serious shortfall in rain.

On the other hand, observations by global weather agencies that show weaker El Nino conditions in the monsoon period could limit the scarcity to some extent. All long-range forecasts, however, are prone to error due to the complexity of the Indian monsoon system. Skymet’s forecast of a fully normal monsoon (100 per cent) last year was proven wrong when the actual rainfall turned out to be 91 per cent of the normal.

Independent weather observers concurred with Skymet on the onset date, the BS report said. They said temperatures in the mainland dropped a bit due to a series of western disturbances, which are causing thunderstorms in Delhi and other states. This is delaying the development of low-pressure areas in central India and desert regions, they added.

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India News

Home Ministry convenes emergency meeting amid rising security concerns after Pahalgam terror attack

After the tragic Pahalgam terror attack, the Home Ministry convened a high-level meeting in Delhi as intense security operations unfold across Jammu and Kashmir.

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Amid heightened security concerns following the deadly Pahalgam terror attack that claimed 26 lives, the Ministry of Home Affairs convened a high-level meeting in New Delhi on Tuesday.

Key officials attending the meeting include Union Home Secretary Govind Mohan, Director Generals of the Border Security Force (BSF), Assam Rifles, and the National Security Guard (NSG), along with senior representatives from the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) and the Central Industrial Security Force (CISF).

Meanwhile, extensive counter-terrorism operations are ongoing at multiple locations across Jammu and Kashmir. Sources familiar with the matter noted that, due to the sensitive nature of these operations, no specific updates are currently being disclosed.

In a related development on Monday, the Jammu and Kashmir Police conducted raids at 13 locations in the Doda district, targeting terrorist hideouts and individuals suspected of links to terrorist activities.

Additionally, Srinagar Police carried out a series of extensive searches across the city. These operations focused on the residences of Over Ground Workers (OGWs) and associates linked to banned terrorist outfits, as part of ongoing investigations under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA).

According to a police statement, searches were conducted at the homes of 63 individuals. These operations were executed in accordance with legal procedures, under the supervision of Executive Magistrates and independent witnesses, aiming to collect evidence such as weapons, documents, and digital devices to thwart any potential conspiracies threatening national security.

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Family Man 3 actor Rohit Basfore found dead near Guwahati waterfall

Actor Rohit Basfore, part of Family Man 3, was found dead at Garbhanga Waterfalls. Initial police reports cite accidental drowning, but further investigation is ongoing.

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In a tragic turn of events, actor Rohit Basfore, known for his role in the upcoming third season of The Family Man, was found dead near the Garbhanga Waterfalls in Guwahati on Sunday, April 27. The incident has sent shockwaves through the entertainment community and among fans.

According to police reports, Basfore had gone on a picnic with nine colleagues when the mishap occurred. Officials from Rani Police Outpost stated that he allegedly fell into the waterfall around 2 pm. The authorities were alerted by 4 pm, and a rescue operation led by the SDRF team resulted in the recovery of his body at approximately 6.30 pm.

Initial findings suggest that Basfore died by accidental drowning, with the police currently not suspecting foul play. However, the final confirmation on the cause of death will depend on the awaited post-mortem report. Despite the preliminary conclusions, Basfore’s family members have voiced concerns over possible foul play, prompting further investigation into the circumstances surrounding his death.

In recent weeks, Rohit Basfore had shared glimpses from the set of Family Man 3 on his social media, expressing excitement about his experience. He posted photographs alongside co-actors Jaideep Ahlawat and Dalip Tahil, reflecting on his enthusiasm for learning and acting.

The Family Man series, a creation by Raj & DK for a leading OTT platform, stars Manoj Bajpayee in the lead role of Srikant Tiwari. The popular thriller debuted its first season in 2019, followed by a second season in 2021, and has gained a loyal fanbase awaiting its third chapter.

As the investigation continues, friends, fans, and colleagues mourn the untimely loss of a budding talent whose career was just beginning to blossom.

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PM Modi to chair crucial security meeting after Pahalgam attack

PM Modi will chair crucial security and cabinet meetings tomorrow to assess national preparedness after the Pahalgam terror attack that left 26 dead in Jammu and Kashmir.

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PM Modi

In the aftermath of the deadly terror attack in Pahalgam that claimed 26 lives last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will lead a series of crucial meetings tomorrow to review India’s security preparedness.

The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), the nation’s apex body for national security decisions, is scheduled to convene around 11 am. This will be the second high-level review since the tragic incident in Jammu and Kashmir.

Following the CCS meeting, the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs (CCPA), chaired by the Prime Minister, will also gather to discuss political and strategic issues. Senior leaders, including Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, Home Minister Amit Shah, Road Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari, Health Minister JP Nadda, and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, will participate in the deliberations.

Later, the Cabinet’s Economic Affairs Committee will meet, culminating in a full cabinet session.

During the previous CCS meeting, held two days after the attack, the government placed security forces across the country on heightened alert and vowed strict action against those responsible. Measures taken included suspending the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan, halting SAARC visas, closing the Wagah-Attari border, and downgrading diplomatic ties with Islamabad.

Additionally, Pakistani nationals residing in India were asked to return to their country, with a slight extension given to those holding medical visas until Tuesday. In retaliation, Pakistan announced the suspension of all bilateral agreements with India, including the historic Simla Agreement.

As tensions between the two countries escalate, tomorrow’s meetings are expected to chart the next course of action amid rising security concerns.

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