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Monsoon this year likely to be delayed, may be below normal as well

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Monsoon this year likely to be delayed, may be below normal as well

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The Southwest monsoon that accounts for about 75 per cent of rainfall in India and is the most anticipated weather phenomenon in the country is likely to miss its date with Kerala on June 1 and arrive a few days late.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast for 2019 released today (Wednesday, May 15), as reported by The Indian Express (IE) and The Hindu, says it would hit the Kerala coast six days late, on June 6. Private weather forecaster Skymet puts its arrival date as June 4.

In 2017, the onset over Kerala happened two days in advance (May 30) whereas in 2018, the onset was realised on May 29, which was three days preceding the normal onset date over Kerala.

In Andaman and Nicobar islands, the IMD said, monsoon will arrive towards the end of this week, later than normal. It usually arrives over the islands anytime between May 10 – May 15.

“Conditions are becoming favourable for monsoon to advance onto Andaman and Nicobar islands around May18 or May 19,” the forecast suggested.

Generally, the monsoon reaches Kerala within 10 days of reaching the Andamans. However, meteorologists had indicated that the monsoon — impeded by high temperatures in the seas surrounding India, and an El Nino — will advance sluggishly after reaching Kerala.

To forecast the monsoon arrival, the IMD uses a customised weather model which, it stated, had been wrong only once – in 2015 – since 2014.

This model crunches 6 meteorological parameters: the minimum temperatures over northwest India; the pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula; the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over the South China Sea; the lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian Ocean; the upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean; and the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over the southwest Pacific region.

The model has a built-in error margin of four days and prediction of aJune 6 onset can mean any day from June 2-10.

The monsoon’s arrival time, the IMD said, had no bearing to the quantum of rainfall in June-September period.

The IMD said it expected a “normal monsoon” but pointed to a “significant probability” of below normal rains.

But the Skymet forecast could e reason for worry. Skymet has maintained, in line with its earlier forecast, that the rains would be poor this year at 93 per cent of the normal.

According to its forecast, the drought-affected regions of Marathwada and Vidarbha in Maharashtra, along with parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, will face nearly 9 per cent deficiency in the June-September rains, reported The Business Standard (BS).

Rajasthan, northern Karnataka and Rayalseema could also see poor rain, Skymet said. While the model error for the amount of rain is 5 per cent, that for the date of arrival is two days.

“All four regions are going to witness lower than normal rain this season. East and northeast India and the central parts will get poorer rain than northwest India and the southern peninsula,” Jatin Singh, managing director at Skymet, was reported as saying.

The initial advance of the monsoon over peninsular India in June is going to be slow, the weather agency said. What does not augur well for the economy is that Skymet expects multiple agrarian regions to have a serious shortfall in rain.

On the other hand, observations by global weather agencies that show weaker El Nino conditions in the monsoon period could limit the scarcity to some extent. All long-range forecasts, however, are prone to error due to the complexity of the Indian monsoon system. Skymet’s forecast of a fully normal monsoon (100 per cent) last year was proven wrong when the actual rainfall turned out to be 91 per cent of the normal.

Independent weather observers concurred with Skymet on the onset date, the BS report said. They said temperatures in the mainland dropped a bit due to a series of western disturbances, which are causing thunderstorms in Delhi and other states. This is delaying the development of low-pressure areas in central India and desert regions, they added.

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Shashi Tharoor warns US Iran tariffs could make Indian exports unviable

Shashi Tharoor has warned that cumulative US tariffs linked to Iran trade could rise to 75%, making most Indian exports to America commercially unviable.

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Shashi Tharoor

Congress MP and chairman of the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs Shashi Tharoor has expressed serious concern over the United States’ latest tariff announcement targeting countries that continue to trade with Iran, warning that such measures could severely impact Indian exporters.

Reacting to the decision by US President Donald Trump to impose a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran, Tharoor said Indian companies would struggle to remain competitive if cumulative tariffs rise to 75%. He noted that India was already at a disadvantage compared to several regional competitors.

Tharoor said he had been troubled by the US tariff regime from the outset, pointing out that India was initially subjected to a 25% tariff while rival exporting nations in Southeast Asia were charged significantly lower rates. According to him, countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan and Bangladesh faced tariffs ranging between 15% and 19% on labour-intensive goods exported to the US.

He explained that the situation had worsened with additional sanctions-linked duties. With the existing 25% tariff, another 25% related to Russia-linked sanctions, and a further 25% tied to Iran-related measures, the total burden could rise to 75%. At that level, Tharoor said, most Indian exports would no longer be commercially viable in the American market.

While noting that certain sectors such as pharmaceuticals may continue to export as they are not heavily impacted by sanctions, he warned that other key export categories would be hit hard. Tharoor described the situation as very serious and said it required urgent attention.

The Congress MP also expressed hope that the newly appointed US Ambassador could help facilitate progress on a bilateral trade agreement. He stressed that India could not afford to wait through the entire year for a deal and said an agreement should ideally be concluded in the first quarter of 2026.

Commenting on recent diplomatic engagements between India and the US, Tharoor underlined the need for faster consensus on trade issues. He said that at tariff levels as high as 75%, the idea of a meaningful trade deal loses relevance. According to him, a rate closer to what the UK enjoys with the US, around 15%, would reflect the respect due to a strategic partner.

Tharoor’s remarks come after President Trump announced that any country continuing business with Iran would face a 25% tariff on all trade with the United States, a move that has raised concerns among several trading partners.

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Indian Army symbolizes selfless service and duty, says PM Modi on Army Day

PM Narendra Modi on Army Day praised the Indian Army as a symbol of selfless service and unwavering duty, saluting the courage and sacrifice of its soldiers.

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pm modi speech

On the occasion of Army Day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday paid tribute to the Indian Army, describing its soldiers as a symbol of selfless service who protect the nation with unwavering resolve, even in the most challenging circumstances.

In a message shared on social media platform X, the prime minister said the country salutes the courage and steadfast commitment of Indian Army personnel. He noted that their dedication to duty inspires confidence and gratitude among citizens across the country.

“Our soldiers stand as a symbol of selfless service, safeguarding the nation with steadfast resolve, at times under the most challenging conditions,” PM Modi said. He added that the nation remembers with deep respect those who have laid down their lives while serving the country.

Army Day is observed every year on January 15 to commemorate a historic moment in India’s military history. The day marks the appointment of Field Marshal K M Cariappa as the first Indian Commander-in-Chief of the Indian Army in 1949, when he took over from British officer General Sir F R R Bucher.

The occasion serves as a reminder of the Indian Army’s role in defending the country’s sovereignty and honour, as well as the sacrifices made by its personnel in the line of duty.

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Air India, IndiGo flights disrupted after Iran shuts airspace amid US tensions

International flights operated by Air India, IndiGo and SpiceJet were disrupted after Iran shut its airspace, forcing rerouting and cancellations.

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Air india flight

International flights operated by Air India, IndiGo and SpiceJet were disrupted on Thursday after Iran abruptly shut its airspace to commercial aircraft, triggering delays and cancellations on several long-haul routes.

Iran ordered the closure of its airspace without providing an official explanation, as tensions remain elevated between Tehran and Washington and protests continue across the country against Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Indian airlines issue travel advisories

Air India said its flights overflying the region are now operating through alternative routes, resulting in longer flight times and possible delays. The airline also confirmed that some services have been cancelled where rerouting is not feasible.

“Due to the emerging situation in Iran and the subsequent closure of its airspace, Air India flights overflying the region are using alternate routing, which may lead to delays. Some flights are being cancelled where rerouting is currently not possible,” the airline said in a statement on social media.

Passengers were advised to check flight status before travelling to the airport, with the airline reiterating that passenger and crew safety remains its top priority.

IndiGo also acknowledged disruptions to its international network, describing the situation as a “sudden airspace closure” beyond the airline’s control. The carrier said it is working to assist affected passengers by offering alternative travel options.

Customers have been advised to use flexible rebooking options or claim refunds, depending on their preference.

SpiceJet issued a similar advisory, confirming that some of its flights have been impacted due to the closure of Iranian airspace.

Airspace shutdown linked to regional security concerns

According to official notices issued to pilots, Iran’s airspace closure is expected to remain in place until 7:30 am local time. The move comes amid heightened regional tensions and follows earlier shutdowns during military confrontations involving Israel earlier this year.

Aviation risk monitoring platforms have noted that several international airlines are already avoiding Iranian airspace, citing concerns over possible military activity, air defence operations and the risk of misidentification of civilian aircraft.

The situation continues to be monitored closely, with further disruptions possible if the airspace restrictions are extended.

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