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Monsoon this year likely to be delayed, may be below normal as well

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Monsoon this year likely to be delayed, may be below normal as well

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The Southwest monsoon that accounts for about 75 per cent of rainfall in India and is the most anticipated weather phenomenon in the country is likely to miss its date with Kerala on June 1 and arrive a few days late.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast for 2019 released today (Wednesday, May 15), as reported by The Indian Express (IE) and The Hindu, says it would hit the Kerala coast six days late, on June 6. Private weather forecaster Skymet puts its arrival date as June 4.

In 2017, the onset over Kerala happened two days in advance (May 30) whereas in 2018, the onset was realised on May 29, which was three days preceding the normal onset date over Kerala.

In Andaman and Nicobar islands, the IMD said, monsoon will arrive towards the end of this week, later than normal. It usually arrives over the islands anytime between May 10 – May 15.

“Conditions are becoming favourable for monsoon to advance onto Andaman and Nicobar islands around May18 or May 19,” the forecast suggested.

Generally, the monsoon reaches Kerala within 10 days of reaching the Andamans. However, meteorologists had indicated that the monsoon — impeded by high temperatures in the seas surrounding India, and an El Nino — will advance sluggishly after reaching Kerala.

To forecast the monsoon arrival, the IMD uses a customised weather model which, it stated, had been wrong only once – in 2015 – since 2014.

This model crunches 6 meteorological parameters: the minimum temperatures over northwest India; the pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula; the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over the South China Sea; the lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian Ocean; the upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean; and the outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) over the southwest Pacific region.

The model has a built-in error margin of four days and prediction of aJune 6 onset can mean any day from June 2-10.

The monsoon’s arrival time, the IMD said, had no bearing to the quantum of rainfall in June-September period.

The IMD said it expected a “normal monsoon” but pointed to a “significant probability” of below normal rains.

But the Skymet forecast could e reason for worry. Skymet has maintained, in line with its earlier forecast, that the rains would be poor this year at 93 per cent of the normal.

According to its forecast, the drought-affected regions of Marathwada and Vidarbha in Maharashtra, along with parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, will face nearly 9 per cent deficiency in the June-September rains, reported The Business Standard (BS).

Rajasthan, northern Karnataka and Rayalseema could also see poor rain, Skymet said. While the model error for the amount of rain is 5 per cent, that for the date of arrival is two days.

“All four regions are going to witness lower than normal rain this season. East and northeast India and the central parts will get poorer rain than northwest India and the southern peninsula,” Jatin Singh, managing director at Skymet, was reported as saying.

The initial advance of the monsoon over peninsular India in June is going to be slow, the weather agency said. What does not augur well for the economy is that Skymet expects multiple agrarian regions to have a serious shortfall in rain.

On the other hand, observations by global weather agencies that show weaker El Nino conditions in the monsoon period could limit the scarcity to some extent. All long-range forecasts, however, are prone to error due to the complexity of the Indian monsoon system. Skymet’s forecast of a fully normal monsoon (100 per cent) last year was proven wrong when the actual rainfall turned out to be 91 per cent of the normal.

Independent weather observers concurred with Skymet on the onset date, the BS report said. They said temperatures in the mainland dropped a bit due to a series of western disturbances, which are causing thunderstorms in Delhi and other states. This is delaying the development of low-pressure areas in central India and desert regions, they added.

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Entertainment

The Sabarmati Report: PM Modi praises film based on Godhra train burning incident, says truth coming out

The Prime Minister’s remarks came in response to an X user who had shared a video of the film’s trailer, which was released on Friday.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday praised the film ‘The Sabarmati Report’, based on 2002 Godhra train incident, saying the truth is coming to out.

He expressed his thoughts on social media platform X, saying, “Well said. It is good that this truth is emerging, especially in a manner accessible to the general public. A deceptive narrative can only last for so long. Ultimately, the facts will prevail!”

The Prime Minister’s remarks came in response to an X user who had shared a video of the film’s trailer, which was released on Friday.

‘The Sabarmati Report’ focuses on the tragic incident involving the burning of the S-6 coach of the Sabarmati Express near Godhra station in Gujarat on February 27, 2002, resulting in the deaths of 59 Hindu pilgrims returning from Ayodhya. This event ignited widespread riots in Gujarat that year.

Directed by Dheeraj Sarna, the film is produced by Shobha Kapoor, Ektaa R Kapoor, Amul V Mohan, and Anshul Mohan, and features actors Vikrant Massey, Raashii Khanna, and Ridhi Dogra.

In response to PM Modi’s commendation, producer Ekta Kapoor expressed her gratitude, highlighting that his praise provided a significant morale boost for the film’s team. Resharing the Prime Minister’s post, she wrote in Hindi on X: “Respected Prime Minister, thank you very much for your encouraging words about #TheSabarmatiReport. They have invigorated our spirits. Your recognition of #TheSabarmatiReport confirms that we are on the right path. Thank you for your love and support.”

This is not the first instance of PM Modi praising a film. In 2022, he lauded Vivek Agnihotri’s ‘The Kashmir Files’. He stated, “History must be conveyed in the correct context. Books, poetry, literature, and films all play a crucial role in this. You’ve likely heard the discussions surrounding ‘The Kashmir Files’; it has certainly ruffled the feathers of those who champion freedom of expression.” The film depicts the 1990 exodus of Kashmiri Pandits from the Valley and features Anupam Kher, Pallavi Joshi, Mithun Chakraborty, Darshan Kumar, among others.

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India News

Nitin Gadkari slams Rahul Gandhi after he compares Modi to Biden over memory loss

Gandhi, the Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha, on Saturday took a swipe at the Prime Minister, saying Modi is suffering from memory loss like the outgoing United States president.

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Union Minister Nitin Gadkari on Sunday slammed Congress leader Rahul Gandhi after the latter compared Prime Minister Narendra Modi to outgoing US President Joe Biden over memory loss, saying Gandhi should not be taken seriously.

The senior BJP leader expressed confidence that the people of Maharashtra would support the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance in the upcoming state Assembly elections on November 20.

“The way Rahul Gandhi speaks, nobody takes him seriously. I think people should not take his remarks seriously,” Gadkari said while speaking to PTI.

Gandhi, the Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha, on Saturday took a swipe at the Prime Minister, saying Modi is suffering from memory loss like the outgoing United States president.

During an election rally in Maharashtra’s Amravati on Saturday, Gandhi said: “My sister was telling me that she listened to PM Modi’s speech. She said that these days Modi ji is essentially repeating whatever we say. Perhaps he has suffered memory loss. Like the former President of America. He used to forget things and had to be reminded from behind about what to say, and what not to.”

The Rae Bareli MP commented on the incident where Biden mistakenly called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “President Putin” during the NATO summit held in Washington in July.

Gadkari, responding to Gandhi’s allegations about PM Modi suffering from memory loss like Biden, hit out at the Congress leader for speaking irresponsibly.

On Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar’s dissent regarding Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s ‘batenge toh katenge’ remark, which suggested increasing tensions within the Mahayuti alliance, Gadkari downplayed the issue, stating, “First of all, we are different parties, and it is not necessary that we share the same opinion.”

He elaborated that “the media also distorts what is said. This creates misconceptions. The call for unity was to unite against terrorism and Naxalism”.

On being asked about the challenges confronting the Mahayuti alliance following its less-than-stellar performance in the recent Lok Sabha elections, Gadkari attributed the results to the confusion propagated by the Opposition. “A narrative was created that if we win 400-plus seats, we will amend the Constitution drafted by Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar.”

Gadkari strongly denied these assertions, saying, “There is no question of changing the Constitution. We will neither do it, nor allow others to do it. Now people have realised that the campaign by the opposition during the Lok Sabha polls was based on lies, and they have decided to support with positivity the Mahayuti in Maharashtra under PM Modi’s leadership.”

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India News

Rahul Gandhi says continuing bloodshed in Manipur deeply disturbing

The former Congress chief urged the Prime Minister to work towards restoring peace and healing in the Valley.  

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Urging Prime Minister Narendra Modi to visit violence-hit Manipur, Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi said that the recent string of violent clashes and continuing bloodshed in Manipur is deeply disturbing.

The former Congress chief urged the Prime Minister to work towards restoring peace and healing in the Valley.  

“After more than a year of division and suffering, it was the hope of every Indian that the Central and State governments would have made every effort at reconciliation and found a solution,” Gandhi said in a post on X.

On Friday night, three bodies, believed to belong to six individuals who had gone missing from the Jiribam district, were found near the confluence of the Jiri and Barak rivers along the Manipur-Assam border.

Following the development, the residences of two Ministers and three MLAs were attacked by protesters in Manipur’s Imphal on Saturday. The protesters were seeking justice for the murder of three persons in the Jiribam district.

In view of the situation, the government suspended internet services in seven districts, and a curfew was imposed. A mob also attacked the residence of Health and Family Welfare Minister Sapam Ranjan in the Lamphel Sanakeithel area.

In the Sagolband area, agitators gathered outside the residence of BJP legislator RK Imo, who is also the son-in-law of Chief Minister N Biren Singh, expressing demands for an appropriate response from the government regarding the killings and urging authorities to arrest the culprits within 24 hours.

The protesters who went to meet with independent legislator Sapam Nishikanta Singh at his residence on Tiddim Road vandalised the office of a local newspaper owned by him after knowing he was out of state. The mob reportedly destroyed several temporary structures in front of the office.

Imphal West, Imphal East, Bishnupur, Thoubal, Kakching, Kangpokpi and Churachandpur were the districts where the internet services were suspended for two days, as per the reports.

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