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Is global establishment in for a surprise in France, too?

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Is global establishment in for a surprise in France, too?

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Does Emmanuel Macron’s fate on Election Day resemble Hillary Clinton’s? Only time will provide the correct answer

By Saeed Naqvi

Accustomed either to isolation or global dominance, the US has in recent years been playing a third role. Ever since its power diminished following the 2008 meltdown, it finds itself running around to block political forces which are ascendant everywhere almost independent of its authority.

Brexit happened despite the US. The country itself has a President it did not want. And now, the weight of its establishment is behind the centrist banker, Emmanuel Macron in France. But will that suffice to keep the ultranationalist Marine Le Pen at bay? The falcon cannot see the falconer.

Electoral eruptions are taking place everywhere almost in defiance of American will. In some instances, it is difficult to fathom what possible interest the US might have had in a certain outcome until the truth suddenly leaps out of the thicket, in sharp silhouette.

Why, for instance, would the CIA exert every muscle to support the Right Wing Guillermo Lasso in Ecuador, a country of 16 million people? In the event, a rank Leftist with a menacing name, Lenin Moreno, won.

World affairs these days are sometimes like a game of billiards. That roughly is the effect of Lenin Moreno’s victory in Quito. The consequence of this outcome is that Julian Assange, who controls the nightmare called Wikileaks, now cannot be dispatched to Sweden for trial. He can live for the next few years in the comfort of the Ecuador Embassy in London. That clearly is an affront to the US establishment.

Worse maybe on its way in Mexico, Monroe doctrine or no Monroe doctrine. Come the 2018 elections, President Enrique Nieto will by all accounts be hit for a six, to be replaced by Leftist Lopez Obrador, if not something more radical. The “Building the wall” rhetoric is not the only humiliation that has registered with the Mexican electorate.

So, scramble CIA; reversal in Mexico has to be averted at all costs just as one has to be speeded up in Venezuela.

You may sail the world’s most powerful Armada to threaten Kim Jong-un, but every school boy in Seoul knows that US troops in Panmunjom and at nearby Okinawa Island would be exposed to even hand carried ordnance in the unlikely event of hostilities.

Then why all this bluster on the part of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Vice-President Mike Pence and President Trump himself? The US has patronized many corrupt regimes in Seoul, but the disgrace in which President Park Geun-hye had to leave office has left South Koreans shattered. Is the US influence with the regime that comes in after May 9 elections about to plummet?

Is all this muscle flexing, then mixing hot and cold (Trump says he would meet Kim Jong-un), designed to somehow psyche Korean voting intentions? South Korea is not exempt from anti-Americanism. An outcome conditioned by this factor will clearly be advantageous to China and Russia.

The global establishment is on sixes and sevens on which way the cookie might crumble in France. At the outset, Macron seemed a clever idea, responding to the universal quest for something new, different from the established parties. But as the date of elections approaches, the idea begins to look too clever by half.

A 39-year-old, married to a grandmother, branches out with his own party, En Marche, or March Ahead, has considerable novelty attached to it. But on close scrutiny he is a Rothschild banker, a former member of the most unpopular Francois Hollande government. Establishment to the core. old wine in new bottle. Le Pen tattooed him with punches on that count in the TV debate the other night.

Suddenly imagination transports me to that Dumbo Loft under the Brooklyn Bridge on the evening of November 8. Hillary Clinton was the frontrunner. It was an impressive assembly of World Bankers, State Department officials, artists, journalists, friends Saeed Raza and Nusrat Durrani from Lucknow (to underscore my parochialism), all eager to celebrate a Clinton victory. But we all know what happened. (For the rest of the drama read my November 10 blog.)

Does Macron’s fate on Election Day resemble Clinton’s? The American establishment shows traces of Joseph McCarthy in its DNA at the sight of anything resembling the classical left. Comfort level with a Bertolt Brecht and Arthur Miller is confined to Broadway shows. Little wonder Bernie Sanders was grounded by the Democratic Establishment when he was miles ahead in the race.

In the French campaign, the communist Jean-Luc Melenchon surged with lightening speed, but the French public was witness to his brilliant presentation only towards the end of the campaign. Imagine where he might have been had a viscerally anti-Left media placed the spotlight on him earlier. Even so, he got 20 percent of the first round votes as against Le Pen’s 21 and Macron’s 23 percent.

All sorts of calculations are afoot: if 90 percent of Le Pen’s supporters turned out but only 65 of Macron’s were mobilized, she would win.

The trophy for prescience on the US elections clearly belonged to the filmmaker Michael Moore: “This election is only about who gets who out to vote, who gets the most rabid supporters, the mind of candidate who gets people out of bed at 5.00 am on Election Day.”

Moore added: “So many people have given up on the system because the system has given up on them. They know it is all bullshit: politics, politicians, elections. People want to tear down establishments.” And Macron sadly, is “the” establishment in very thin disguise.

In an insightful piece, Ross Douthat wrote in The New York Times that Le Pen has with great deliberation distanced herself from the anti-Semitism of her father Jean-Marie Le Pen. This brings her closer to the middle.

According to Douthat, “Nobody seriously doubts Le Pen’s competence, her command of policy, her ability to serve as president without turning the office into a Reality TV thunderdrome.” Trump’s inability to master his own turbulent emotions is not an issue with his Gallic counterpart.

In the US, the media (except Fox News) threw its total weight behind Clinton. It had egg on its face. The French media, likewise, is supporting Macron to the hilt. In our perverse times, is that not a good omen for Le Pen?[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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India eyes Rs 8,000 crore mid-air refuelling aircraft deal as PM Modi begins Israel visit

India and Israel are in talks for a Rs 8,000 crore deal to convert six Boeing 767 jets into mid-air refuelling aircraft for the Indian Air Force.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi began his two-day visit to Israel on Wednesday, with a key defence agreement expected to be among the major outcomes of the trip.

According to sources, India and Israel are in advanced negotiations for a deal involving six mid-air refuelling aircraft for the Indian Air Force (IAF). The proposed agreement, estimated at around Rs 8,000 crore, would significantly strengthen India’s aerial refuelling capability.

Under the plan, an Israeli government-owned corporation is expected to collaborate with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) to convert six pre-owned Boeing 767 passenger aircraft into military tanker jets for the IAF.

IAF’s long-pending tanker requirement

The Indian Air Force currently operates six ageing Russian-origin IL-78 mid-air refuelling aircraft. Efforts to procure additional tanker aircraft have remained unsuccessful for nearly two decades, leaving the force dependent on its limited fleet and, at times, leased aircraft to meet operational requirements.

If finalised, the new agreement would mark a significant upgrade in India’s aerial refuelling capacity, which plays a crucial role in extending the operational range and endurance of fighter jets and other aircraft.

Sources indicated that negotiations are ongoing, and the agreement is likely to be formalised in 2026.

High-level engagements in Israel

During his visit, Prime Minister Modi is scheduled to hold talks with his Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu. He will also address the Knesset and interact with members of the Indian diaspora.

In his departure statement, the Prime Minister described India and Israel’s relationship as a robust and multifaceted strategic partnership that has seen remarkable growth. He said he looks forward to discussions aimed at strengthening cooperation in areas such as science and technology, innovation, agriculture, water management, defence and security, trade and investment, and people-to-people ties.

The Prime Minister noted that his address to the Knesset would mark the first time an Indian Prime Minister addresses the Israeli Parliament.

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PM Modi to begin two-day Israel visit, defence and trade in focus

PM Narendra Modi begins a two-day Israel visit aimed at strengthening defence cooperation, trade ties and upgrading bilateral relations to a special strategic partnership.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi will begin a two-day visit to Israel on Wednesday, with defence and trade cooperation high on the agenda. The visit is expected to further deepen the growing strategic engagement between the two countries.

During the trip, India and Israel are set to upgrade their relationship to a “special strategic partnership”, marking a significant step beyond the strategic partnership established in July 2017 during the Prime Minister’s first visit to the country.

Sources indicated that the new framework would enable expanded collaboration, including joint development of advanced defence systems and a strengthened understanding to support each other during times of need.

High-level engagements in Jerusalem

Mr Modi will be received at the airport by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife Sara. The two leaders are scheduled to hold a one-on-one meeting shortly after his arrival.

In Jerusalem, the Prime Minister will interact with members of the Indian community before addressing lawmakers at the Knesset, a distinction reserved for select global leaders.

On Wednesday evening, he will attend a technology exhibition showcasing Israel’s advancements, with leading Israeli industry executives expected to be present. Mr Netanyahu will also host a private dinner in his honour.

Tribute at Yad Vashem and presidential meeting

On Thursday morning, Mr Modi will pay tribute to Holocaust victims at Yad Vashem. He is also scheduled to meet Israeli President Isaac Herzog during the visit.

Defence cooperation and technology partnerships

Several memorandums of understanding are expected to be signed, including a widely discussed agreement in the defence sector. As part of the proposed arrangement, a secrecy mechanism will reportedly be created to facilitate expanded cooperation in previously restricted areas.

Local media reports have indicated discussions around air defence systems and possible integration of India into Israel’s laser-based air defence system, Or Eitan.

Beyond defence, the two nations are expected to formalise cooperation in emerging and disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum research and cybersecurity.

In New Delhi, the Ministry of External Affairs said the visit would reaffirm the deep-rooted strategic partnership and provide an opportunity to align efforts in addressing shared challenges while strengthening collaboration between the two democracies.

Defence cooperation has been a cornerstone of India-Israel relations, with Israel supplying a range of military platforms and weapon systems to India in recent years. Bilateral ties have also expanded in fields including scientific research, innovation and cybersecurity.

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Trump says tariffs will replace income tax, criticises Supreme Court setback in key address

Donald Trump has said tariffs collected from foreign nations could eventually replace income tax in the US, while criticising a Supreme Court ruling against his earlier import duties.

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US President Donald Trump has said that tariffs collected from foreign countries could eventually replace the modern system of income tax in the United States, arguing that such a shift would ease the financial burden on American citizens.

Speaking during his annual State of the Union address, Trump defended his sweeping tariff measures, asserting that countries which had “ripped off” the US for years were now paying billions of dollars in duties.

“As time goes by, I believe that tariffs, paid for by foreign countries, will, like in the past, substantially replace the modern-day system of income tax, taking a great financial burden off the people that I love,” he said.

The Republican leader credited tariffs as a key driver behind what he described as an economic turnaround. According to him, the US collected “hundreds of billions of dollars” through import duties, which he said helped secure favourable economic and national security deals.

“Countries that were ripping us off for decades are now paying us hundreds of billions of dollars,” Trump said, adding that the arrangements had resulted in growth and no inflation during that period.

Supreme Court ruling draws sharp reaction

Trump also criticised a recent 6-3 ruling by the Supreme Court of the United States that struck down his earlier sweeping import duties. He termed the verdict “very unfortunate” but maintained that most countries and corporations would continue to honour agreements already negotiated.

He said alternative legal provisions would allow his administration to retain similar tariff measures without requiring new congressional approval. “They’re a little more complex, but they’re actually probably better,” he said, referring to the legal statutes under which the revised duties would be imposed.

Hours after the ruling, Trump signed a fresh order imposing a 15 per cent tariff on imports from around the world. The new measure falls under a law that limits such duties to 150 days and is expected to take effect almost immediately.

Reciprocal tariffs and global backlash

On April 2, Trump announced “reciprocal” tariffs of up to 50 per cent on imports from countries with which the US runs trade deficits, along with a 10 per cent baseline tariff on most other nations. He invoked a 1977 law to declare the trade deficit a national emergency, which he said justified the sweeping import taxes.

Following global backlash, the administration suspended the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days to allow negotiations. According to Trump, several countries agreed to new trade terms during that period, while others faced steeper duties for not complying.

Reiterating his stance, Trump also linked tariffs to what he described as conflict resolution efforts abroad, saying the “threat of tariffs” had helped him settle disputes.

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