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Blow for BJP as Congress, Trinamool sweep by-polls in Rajasthan, WB

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Blow for BJP as Congress, Trinamool sweep by-polls in Rajasthan, WB

Congress won Alwar, Ajmer Lok Sabha seats and Mandalgarh assembly seat in Rajasthan, Trinamool bags Uluberia and Noapara in Bengal

On a day when the entire BJP brass was busy hailing finance minister’s Arun Jaitley’s Union Budget 2018 as “historic”, the saffron party received a major setback from Rajasthan and West Bengal, where it was comprehensively defeated by the Congress and Trinamool Congress in by-polls for both Lok Sabha and Assembly seats.

The result of the by-polls, overshadowed predictably by the brouhaha over the Union Budget, come at a time when the corridors of power in New Delhi are abuzz with speculation that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government could advance the General elections scheduled for April-May 2019 to later this year. Such a move, if indeed implemented, could make the Lok Sabha elections coincide with the assembly polls due for the BJP-ruled Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and also pave the way for the first steps towards realising Modi’s ambitious plan of simultaneous Assembly and Parliamentary elections.

However, if the result of the by-polls is anything to go by, the electorate seems to be fast getting disenchanted with the saffron party four years after Modi propelled it to a landslide victory in the May 2014 general elections and then continued the victory march in over two dozen provincial assemblies that went to polls in subsequent years. That the by-poll embarrassment for the BJP comes months after its narrow victory in Gujarat – the home state of Modi and BJP president Amit Shah where the party has been in power for over two decades – is another fact that points towards a slump in the popularity of saffron brigade.

In Rajasthan, where the Congress had been wiped out in the last general elections, the Grand Old Party made a stunning comeback by winning by-elections to the Alwar and Ajmer Lok Sabha seats as well as the one for the Mandalgarh Assembly segment. The election result would come as a major shot in the arm for Rajasthan Congress president Sachin Pilot and would undoubtedly strengthen his claim to be the party’s chief ministerial candidate in the Rajasthan assembly elections that are due in November this year.

Rajasthan by-poll (Trends at 5.30 pm):

Lok Sabha seats

Constituency Winner/Party Runner-up/ Party Trend/Victory margin
Ajmer Raghu Sharma /Congress Ramswaroop Lamba/ BJP 80316
Alwar Karan Singh Yadav/ Congress Jaswant Singh Yadav/ BJP 194905

Assembly constituency

Constituency Winner/Party Runner-up/ Party Victory margin
Mandalgarh Vivek Dhakar/ Congress Shakti Singh Hada/ BJP 12976

 

Pilot has been relentlessly working to boost his party’s electoral prospects in Rajasthan where the incumbent BJP government under chief minister Vasundhara Raje is facing heavy anti-incumbency. He had failed to retain his Ajmer Lok Sabha seat in the 2014 general elections. Political observers feel that Pilot’s decision to not contest the Ajmer by-poll and instead have the Congress field his confidante Raghu Sharma was a clever move. Pilot minutely manoeuvred Sharma’s election campaign, leading to Thursday’s victory, and in the process made it evident that as Rajasthan Congress president, he had succeeded in reviving the party’s prospects in the state. Coupled with the victory in Alwar Lok Sabha seat and Mandalgarh assembly segment, the Ajmer win would help Pilot severely dent an attempt by former chief minister Ashok Gehlot – who was incidentally the Congress’ in-charge for the Gujarat assembly polls – to be named as the party’s chief ministerial candidate in the upcoming assembly elections.

The victory in Alwar, Ajmer and Mandalgarh will, of course, also be projected by the Congress as a major endorsement by the voters of newly-elevated party president Rahul Gandhi although he didn’t campaign for the candidates and left the ground-work to regional satraps like Pilot and Gehlot.

West Bengal by-polls (final result)

Lok Sabha

Constituency Winner/Party Runner-up/ Party Victory margin
Uluberia Sajda Ahmed/ Trinamool Congress Anupam Mallik/ BJP 474510

Assembly

Constituency Winner/Party Runner-up/Party Victory margin
Noapara Sunil Singh/ Trinamool Congress Sandip Banerjee/ BJP 63,018

 

In West Bengal, the by-polls to the Uluberia Lok Sabha seat and the Noapara assembly constituency reinstated the position of chief minister Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress as the continuing political favourite of the state’s electorate. The Trinamool managed to retain both these seats while her principal rival – the CPI (M) as well as the Congress were decimated, finishing at a distant third and fourth spot respectively in both the seats. However, Banerjee would want to assess how the BJP, which had very limited electoral presence in Bengal till a few years ago, managed to finish second in both these seats where the Muslims comprise a substantial voting bloc. With the CPI (M)- led Left Front in complete disarray in a state that it ruled for over three decades till Banerjee’s romp to power and the Congress long reduced to a minor player, the BJP has been aggressively working to emerge as the main political challenger to the Trinamool in Bengal. The by-poll result in Uluberia and Noapara show that the BJP has had some success in making in-roads in the state’s politics. The Trinamool’s continued policy of appealing to the minorities while alienating the majority community could boost the saffron party’s efforts of consolidating an electoral base in Bengal in the near future.

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CJP leaders Saurav Das, Ashutosh Ranka, Ajinkya Shinde sent to 5-day judicial custody

Three CJP leaders, Saurav Das, Ashutosh Ranka and Ajinkya Shinde, were placed under preventive arrest following a protest at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar over Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar.

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Three leaders of the Cockroach Janata Party (CJP) — Saurav Das, Ashutosh Ranka and Ajinkya Shinde — have been placed under preventive arrest in connection with a protest at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar, where demonstrators demanded the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar.

The three were detained early Tuesday after crossing police barricades and entering Jantar Mantar, which was recently removed from the list of designated protest venues. A case was registered against them over their alleged actions.

According to the police case, the charges include trespassing, violation of a bond, and obstructing a public official from performing official duties.

The three leaders were produced before a Special Court of the Executive Magistrate on Wednesday and could be sent to judicial custody at Tihar Jail.

Why CJP leaders protested at Jantar Mantar

The protest comes amid demonstrations by the CJP and opposition groups over alleged irregularities in the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls.

The protesters were demanding the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar. The controversy centres on allegations concerning the electoral roll revision exercise, which the Election Commission and the BJP have denied.

Jantar Mantar was recently removed from the list of designated protest venues in Delhi. The change followed an order naming alternative locations for demonstrations, prompting criticism from groups that want to hold protests at the established site.

CJP legal team raises concerns over detention

Ratna Singh, head of the CJP legal team, said in a post on X that Delhi Police had arrested Saurav Das, Ashutosh Ranka and Ajinkya Shinde at Parliament Street Police Station in connection with the Jantar Mantar case.

Singh alleged that the three were brought to the police station in a private van at around 3 am and were not allowed to meet their lawyers until late at night.

She also raised concerns about the legal process and the possibility of the leaders being sent to judicial custody.

The allegations regarding access to legal counsel were made by the CJP legal team and should be distinguished from the charges registered by the police.

The arrests mark another development in the ongoing dispute over protests at Jantar Mantar and the CJP’s campaign against the Chief Election Commissioner over the SIR exercise.

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BJP focuses on religion as opposition pushes BDM strategy in UP

The BJP is emphasising religious issues ahead of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, while opposition parties are seeking to consolidate Backward, Dalit and Minority voters. Recent exchanges involving Yogi Adityanath, Akhilesh Yadav and Asaduddin Owaisi have added to the political contest over the state’s electoral narrative.

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Ahead of the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, the BJP is emphasising religious issues, while opposition parties are seeking to build a coalition of Backward, Dalit and Minority voters. The competing approaches have brought caste representation and religious messaging to the forefront of the state’s political discourse.

Recent temple-related controversies in Kashi, Ayodhya, Mathura and Sambhal have brought religious messaging back into the political conversation. The developments have also coincided with exchanges between Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav over possible electoral contests.

Yogi Adityanath, Akhilesh Yadav trade election challenges

The latest round of political exchanges followed Yogi Adityanath’s invocation of the “80-20” formula during the Rajya Sabha election. Akhilesh Yadav subsequently challenged the Chief Minister to contest from Ayodhya.

During his visit to Ayodhya, the Samajwadi Party president attended a Bhagwat Katha but did not visit the Ram Mandir for darshan. His visit, during which he attended a Bhagwat Katha but did not visit the Ram Mandir for darshan, became another point of political discussion.

The Chief Minister responded during a visit to Balrampur, asking Akhilesh Yadav to contest against him.

The exchanges continued as political leaders questioned the Samajwadi Party chief’s religious outreach. State minister Om Prakash Rajbhar asked why Yadav had not visited Mathura, while AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi challenged him to contest from Sambhal.

Responding to questions about the challenges, Akhilesh Yadav said the Chief Minister does not decide which candidates the parties nominate.

At a press conference in Lucknow, Yadav also remarked, “What could be better than getting the Chief Minister’s chair without even contesting the election?” His comment suggested that Adityanath might not contest the Assembly elections.

Adityanath, meanwhile, said he was pleased to have several options available to him.

BJP works on its own caste coalition

Alongside its emphasis on religious issues, the BJP is also seeking to broaden its social support base through caste representation.

During the Rajya Sabha elections, the party fielded three candidates from Backward Classes, two Dalits, two Brahmins and one Rajput. The Backward Class candidates included representatives of the Pal, Kurmi and Lodh communities.

The report describes the BJP’s selection of candidates from the Sonkar and Rawat communities as an attempt to attract support among the Gaur and Jatav Dalit vote banks. Its selection of two Brahmins and one Rajput was also part of its outreach to upper-caste voters.

These choices reflect the BJP’s efforts to build a social coalition that extends beyond its religious messaging as the state approaches the next Assembly election.

Akhilesh Yadav balances caste outreach with temple politics

The Samajwadi Party is also combining its BDM approach with religious outreach, described in the report as “soft Hindutva”.

Akhilesh Yadav is overseeing the construction of the Kedareshwar Temple in Etawah. When questioned about not visiting the Ram Mandir during his Ayodhya trip, he said he was waiting for the temple’s “Pran Pratishtha”, or consecration ceremony, implying that the ceremony held in 2024 did not count.

Yadav has also raised the issue of alleged theft of offerings at the Ram Temple, a move the report interprets as an attempt to appeal to Hindu voters.

The competing strategies indicate that caste representation, religious issues and temple-related controversies are all featuring in political messaging ahead of the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections.

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L Murugan quits Union ministry to strengthen BJP in Tamil Nadu

L Murugan has resigned from his Union ministerial post and Rajya Sabha membership, saying he wants to return to grassroots politics and dedicate himself to strengthening the BJP in Tamil Nadu before the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.

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L Murugan

L Murugan has resigned from his position as Union Minister of State and his Rajya Sabha membership, saying he wants to return to grassroots politics and work towards strengthening the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Tamil Nadu ahead of the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.

Murugan, who held the portfolios of Information and Broadcasting and Parliamentary Affairs, announced his decision in a post on X on Tuesday, October 13. He described his time in the Union government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership as a great honour and said he wanted to devote himself full-time to the party’s work in Tamil Nadu.

L Murugan says he wants to return to grassroots politics

In his post, Murugan expressed gratitude for the opportunity to serve in the Union Council of Ministers and highlighted his background as the son of daily-wage labourers.

He said he now wished to return to the grassroots, stand alongside BJP workers and dedicate his time to strengthening the party in Tamil Nadu before the next Lok Sabha elections.

Murugan’s stated objective is to help expand the BJP’s presence in the state and contribute to the party’s performance in the 2029 general elections.

Murugan’s resignation comes amid Cabinet reshuffle speculation

His decision comes amid speculation about a possible reshuffle in the Union government. The discussion gained momentum after several Rajya Sabha MPs and ministers, including Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, were not renominated.

However, the report does not establish that the speculation about a Cabinet reshuffle was the reason for Murugan’s resignation. His publicly stated reason was his desire to return to grassroots work and strengthen the BJP in Tamil Nadu.

Murugan thanks PM Modi for the opportunity to serve

Murugan described serving India and Tamil Nadu under Modi’s leadership as one of the greatest privileges of his life. He also referred to his journey from a family of daily-wage labourers to the Union Council of Ministers.

His announcement places his immediate political focus on Tamil Nadu, with the BJP’s preparations for the 2029 Lok Sabha elections forming a central part of his stated plans.

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