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Exit polls 2022: Yogi Adityanath wins back Uttar Pradesh, AAP wave washes into Punjab, Congress in Uttarakhand, BJP in Manipur and Congress ahead in tight Goa race

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BJP wins Uttar Pradesh MLC Election 2022

The high hopes of the Samajwadi Party to unseat the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government seems not to have translated into reality, if we go by exit polls on Monday that screamed that the BJP will return to power albeit with a lower tally than in 2017.

But a big disclaimer: This is what the exit polls say. For the real deal and who got it right and who read a wave in a ripple, we will have to wait a few more days for counting day Thursday, March 10.

The voteshare seems to be predicted to be firmly behind the BJP with a share as high as 45.4%. Some three exit polls have predicted an easy romp home for the BJP, giving it more than 250 seats. This is lower compared to the 312 seats it won in 2017.

The ETG Research Exit Polls 2022 had BJP winning between 230 and 245 seats, the SP getting 150-165, the BSP 5-10 seats and the Congress getting 2 to 6 seats.

The NewsX-Polstrat exit poll says the BJP will win a maximum 225 seats, enough to form a government of its own. The Samajwadi Party seems to be stuck below 160 and the BSP getting a better 14-24 seats.

The Congress is expected to win between 2 and 6 seats. The Republic- P-MARQ exit polls have put the BJP at 240 seats and the SP at 140.

Again, as TV pundits reiterated, it was the Ram factor which seems to have outweighed the anti-incumbency of the Yogi Adityanath government.

Apart from the BJP’s return in Uttar Pradesh, the Aam Aadmi Party is expected to sweep Punjab. Times Now-Veto exit poll says AAP will win 70 seats, Congress 22 seats, SAD+ 19, BJP+ will have 5 seats, and others will have 1 seat. The Axis My India prediction has AAP winning Punjab with 76-90 seats in Punjab. The state has 117 seats.

Others pegged AAP at 55 (India News-MRC) and between 59-67 (India TV-CVoter) and AAP at 54 seats (News 24-Today’s Chanakya). The ABP-Lokniti CSDS exit poll put AAP to get 36-46 seats. The last two projections point to a hung Assembly in Punjab.

In Goa, the Congress seems to be ahead though by a slim margin. Zee News poll said it expected the BJP to win 15 seats. And the Congress+ is likely to get more than 16 seats and others will get 7 seats. The numbers though close leave room for MLA-hopping if push comes to a shove.

In Manipur, the BJP is likely to get re-elected under N. Biren Singh with 33-37 seats.  The Congress may get 12-17 seats.

The Uttarakhand projections are mixed. With a few polls making it a clean BJP majority, some others credit a Congress return.

Again, these are exit poll projections. March 10 will show who is right and who is not!

India News

Amit Shah counters delimitation concerns, says southern states to gain Lok Sabha seats

Amit Shah assures Parliament that southern states will gain Lok Sabha seats after delimitation, countering opposition criticism during the women’s reservation debate.

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Amit Shah

Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Thursday addressed concerns over the proposed delimitation exercise, asserting in the Lok Sabha that southern states will not lose representation but instead see an increase in their number of seats.

His remarks came during a heated debate linked to the implementation of women’s reservation, where opposition parties have raised fears that population-based delimitation could reduce the political weight of southern states.

Shah rejected these claims, calling them misleading, and said the proposed framework ensures fairness while expanding the overall strength of the Lok Sabha.

Seat count to rise with expansion of Lok Sabha

The government has indicated that the total number of Lok Sabha seats could increase significantly as part of the delimitation process. In this expanded House, the combined representation of southern states is expected to rise from 129 seats at present to around 195 seats.

Shah emphasised that no state will lose seats in absolute terms, and the exercise is designed to reflect population changes while maintaining balance across regions.

State-wise projections shared in Parliament

During his address, Shah also provided indicative figures for individual southern states, suggesting notable increases in representation. According to the projections:

  • Tamil Nadu could see its seats rise substantially
  • Kerala, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh are also expected to gain additional seats
  • Karnataka’s representation may increase as well

These figures were presented to counter the argument that delimitation would disproportionately favour northern states.

Political debate intensifies over linkage with women’s quota

The delimitation exercise has been closely linked to the rollout of women’s reservation, which proposes one-third seats for women in Parliament and state assemblies.

Opposition leaders have questioned this linkage, arguing that tying reservation to delimitation could delay its implementation and raise federal concerns. Some leaders have also warned that the move could impact national unity if apprehensions among states are not addressed.

The government, however, maintains that the reforms are necessary to ensure equitable representation and to align the electoral system with demographic realities.

Centre dismisses ‘false narrative’ on southern states

Shah reiterated that concerns about southern states losing influence are unfounded. He said the delimitation process will increase representation across regions and described the criticism as a “false narrative” aimed at creating confusion.

The issue is expected to remain a key flashpoint as Parliament continues discussions on the women’s reservation framework and related legislative changes.

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PM Modi assures no discrimination in women’s quota, delimitation debate intensifies in Parliament

PM Narendra Modi has assured that women’s reservation will be implemented without discrimination, amid a heated debate over delimitation in Parliament.

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PM modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has assured that there will be no discrimination in the implementation of women’s reservation, as Parliament witnessed a sharp debate over the proposed linkage between the quota and delimitation exercise.

During the ongoing special session, the government reiterated its commitment to ensuring fair representation while addressing concerns raised by opposition parties regarding the timing and structure of the legislation.

The proposed framework aims to reserve 33 percent of seats for women in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies. However, its implementation is tied to a fresh delimitation exercise, which is expected after the next census.

Opposition questions timing and intent

Opposition leaders have raised concerns that linking the women’s quota to delimitation could delay its implementation. They argue that the process of redrawing constituencies may push the actual rollout further into the future.

The issue has triggered a broader political confrontation, with multiple parties questioning whether the move could alter representation across states.

Some critics have also alleged that the delimitation exercise could disproportionately benefit certain regions based on population, a charge the government has rejected.

Government reiterates commitment to fair implementation

Responding to these concerns, the Centre has maintained that the reforms are necessary to ensure accurate and updated representation based on population data.

Leaders from the ruling side have repeatedly emphasized that the process will be carried out transparently and without bias. The assurance that there will be “no discrimination” is aimed at addressing fears among states and opposition parties.

The debate marks a key moment in Parliament, with both sides engaging in intense exchanges over one of the most significant electoral reforms in recent years.

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Give all tickets to Muslim women, Amit Shah says, attacking Akhilesh Yadav on sub-quota demand

A sharp exchange between Amit Shah and Akhilesh Yadav in Parliament over sub-quota for Muslim women highlights key divisions on women’s reservation implementation.

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A heated exchange broke out in Parliament during discussions on the women’s reservation framework, with Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav locking horns over the demand for a sub-quota for Muslim women.

The debate unfolded as the government pushed forward key legislative measures to implement 33% reservation for women in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies.

Akhilesh Yadav argued that the proposed reservation must ensure representation for women from marginalised communities, including Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Muslim women. He said that without such provisions, large sections could remain excluded from political participation.

He also questioned the timing of the bill, alleging that the Centre was avoiding a caste census. According to him, a census would lead to renewed demands for caste-based reservations, which the government is reluctant to address.

Government rejects religion-based quota

Responding to the demand, Amit Shah made it clear that reservation based on religion is not permitted under the Constitution.

He stated that any proposal to provide quota to Muslims on religious grounds would be unconstitutional, firmly rejecting the idea of a separate sub-quota for Muslim women within the broader reservation framework.

The government has maintained that the existing framework already includes provisions for Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST) women within the overall reservation structure.

Wider political divide over implementation

The issue of sub-categorisation within the women’s quota has emerged as a major flashpoint, even as most opposition parties broadly support the idea of women’s reservation.

Samajwadi Party leaders reiterated that their support for the bill depends on inclusion of OBC and minority women, while the government continues to defend its constitutional position.

The debate is part of a broader discussion during the special Parliament session, where multiple bills linked to delimitation and implementation of the women’s quota are being taken up.

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