As the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 concluded with record voter turnout, multiple exit polls released on Tuesday indicated that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to return to power in the state. The final results will be declared on November 14.

NDA ahead across multiple surveys

According to at least eight exit polls, the NDA is projected to secure between 130 and 167 seats in the 243-member assembly. The Mahagathbandhan (MGB), led by RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav in alliance with Congress, is expected to finish second with 70 to 108 seats. Most surveys have shown the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) of Prashant Kishor failing to make a breakthrough, with projections ranging between zero and four seats.

Surveys by Chanakya Strategies, P-Marg, JVC, People’s Insight, and others consistently show a strong lead for the NDA. P-Marg’s exit poll projected 142–162 seats for the NDA, while JVC gave the alliance 135–150. Chanakya predicted 130–138 seats, while People’s Insight projected a comfortable win for the ruling alliance.

RJD-Congress alliance struggles to close gap

The opposition coalition—comprising RJD, Congress, and Left parties—appears unable to replicate its strong 2015 performance, when RJD had emerged as the single largest party. In this election, the Mahagathbandhan’s projected tally ranges from 80 to 108 seats, according to various polls.

Key NDA leaders such as Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and senior JD(U) minister Bijendra Prasad Yadav are contesting from their traditional bastions, while RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav aims to break the two-decade-long dominance of Nitish Kumar’s leadership.

Record voter turnout marks the election

Bihar recorded its highest-ever voter turnout of 67.14% across both phases, with districts such as Kishanganj, Katihar, and Purnia witnessing over 70% polling. Voting for the first phase was held on November 6, and the second phase covered 122 constituencies on November 11.

Exit poll accuracy in question

In 2020, most exit polls had predicted a close contest, with some forecasting a win for Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD. However, the NDA eventually secured a majority with 125 seats. The accuracy of this year’s exit polls will be tested when votes are counted on November 14.

Bihar witnessed an unprecedented voter response in the second and final phase of the 2025 Assembly Elections, recording over 60% turnout across 122 constituencies. The phase is seen as crucial for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s government, as several key ministers and allies contested for re-election.

Record voter participation across 20 districts

According to the Election Commission, voter turnout stood at 60.4% by 3 pm, marking the highest-ever participation in the state’s history. Over 3.70 crore voters, including 1.74 crore women, were eligible to vote across 45,399 polling centres.

This round featured 1,302 candidates, of which 136 are women, contesting from constituencies spread across West Champaran, East Champaran, Sitamarhi, Madhubani, Supaul, Araria, and Kishanganj, all bordering Nepal.

Major leaders and candidates in the fray

As many as 12 ministers from Nitish Kumar’s cabinet contested in this phase, including Bijendra Prasad Yadav (Supaul), Sumit Kumar Singh (Chakai), Mohd Zama Khan (Chainpur), Leshi Singh (Dhamdaha), and Renu Devi (Bettiah), among others.

The phase also tested the electoral influence of smaller NDA allies — Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha — both contesting six seats each. Family members of both leaders, Deepa Manjhi and Snehalata Kushwaha, are also in the fray.

Seemanchal region holds key significance

Four districts in the Seemanchal region, known for its substantial Muslim population, went to polls, making it a decisive battleground for both the ruling NDA and the opposition Mahagathbandhan.

Among the most-watched seats is Kahalgaon in Bhagalpur, witnessing a four-cornered contest involving RJD, Congress, JD(U) and an Independent candidate — BJP rebel Pawan Kumar Yadav.

Prominent faces and security measures

Other key contestants include state Congress chief Rajesh Kumar (Kutumba), former assembly speaker Uday Narayan Chaudhary (RJD), CPI-ML leader Mehboob Alam, Commonwealth Games gold medallist Shreyasi Singh (BJP), and Bhojpuri actor-singer Ritesh Pandey (Jan Suraaj Party).

To ensure smooth conduct of polling, the state deployed over four lakh security personnel across sensitive areas.

Bihar had already recorded a 65% voter turnout in Phase 1, indicating a strong engagement by the electorate this year. Counting of votes will be held on November 14, followed by the release of exit polls later today.

A Lucknow-based doctor, identified as Dr Shaheen Shahid, has been arrested for allegedly playing a key role in setting up the women’s wing of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) in India, police sources revealed. The development comes after a major explosives haul in Faridabad near Delhi, which is being probed as part of a larger terror conspiracy.

According to officials, Dr Shaheen Shahid was tasked with establishing and recruiting members for JeM’s women’s unit, Jamaat-ul-Mominaat, led by Sadia Azhar, the sister of JeM founder Masood Azhar, based in Pakistan.

Role and background of Dr Shaheen Shahid

Dr Shaheen Shahid, a resident of Lucknow’s Lal Bagh area, was allegedly involved with JeM’s Faridabad module, from where 2,900 kg of explosives, including suspected ammonium nitrate and 20 timers, were seized.
An assault rifle was also found in a car registered in her name during the investigation.

Officials said she was associated with Al-Falah University and maintained close contact with Dr Muzammil Ganaie alias Musaib, a Pulwama native and fellow doctor at the same university. Muzammil was arrested following the seizure of the explosives and was previously wanted in Jammu and Kashmir for displaying posters supporting JeM.

Links to Kandahar hijacking mastermind’s family

Investigators said that Sadia Azhar, who oversees Jamaat-ul-Mominaat, is married to Yusuf Azhar, a key plotter in the 1999 Kandahar hijacking. Yusuf Azhar was killed during Operation Sindoor on May 7.

The women’s wing was reportedly formed in October in Bahawalpur, Pakistan, and began recruiting women—particularly the wives of JeM commanders and financially weak students—from Bahawalpur, Karachi, Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Haripur, and Mansehra.

Recovery and route linked to Delhi blast

The Maruti Suzuki Swift linked to Dr Shaheen Shahid, registered in Faridabad (HR 51), was used to store weapons and ammunition. Investigators discovered the cache following Muzammil’s interrogation. The revelations also led police to track the suspected route connecting Faridabad, Badarpur, and Red Fort, where a powerful car explosion occurred earlier this week, killing several people.