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Can Saud And Israel Drag Trump Into War With Iran?

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~By Saeed Naqvi

The New York Times Op-Ed page headline said it all:

“I Helped Sell the False Choice of War Once. It’s Happening Again.” The column written by Col. Lawrence Wilkerson appeared on February 5, 2018. The date is significant because exactly 15 years ago, on February 5, 2003, Colin Powell, former Secretary of State, spoke at the UN, making out a case for a pre emptive war with Iraq. Remember those satellite pictures, sinister vehicular movement, “confirming” the presence of Weapons of Mass Destruction in that blighted country.

Powell’s Chief of Staff who actually helped draft the speech was Lawrence Wilkerson, now a much chastened man. He learnt the hard way that both he and his boss Powell had been set on a Fool’s Errand by the Intelligence community. There were no WMD’s in Iraq.

The “war of choice” with Iraq “resulted in catastrophic losses for the region and the US-led coalition,that destabilized the entire Middle East”, he says.

Wilkerson, the perennial insider, then draws comparisons with the current mood in Washington.

“Just over a month ago, the US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, said that the administration had ‘undeniable’ evidence that Iran was not complying with the Security Council Resolutions regarding its ballistic missile programme and Yemen. Just like Mr. Powell, Ms. Haley showed satellite images and other physical evidence available only to the US Intelligence community to prove her case.”

“It’s astonishing how similar that moment was to Powell’s 2003 presentation.”

For obvious reasons, in his New York Times article, Wilkerson is circumspect. He does not name Israel as driving President Trump’s policies. But speaking at National Press Club, he is much more unfettered and direct in answering the basic question: who is pushing America into a conflict with Iran?

“Avigdor Lieberman (Israeli Defence Minister) and Benjamin Netanyahu and their acolytes in this country (US), among whom I put Nikki Haley – they have determined that it would be best if American troops also participated in the overthrow of the Tehran regime.”

Wilkerson is full of admiration for the Israeli Defence Forces which could handle “anything Iran threw at it militarily”. Also, “Israel’s 200 nuclear weapons could decimate Iran”. Wilkerson then asks: “so, why this attempt to suck America into this conflict?” He puts it down to “crass opportunism” – “better to squander your ally’s blood and treasure than your own.”Can Saud And Israel Drag Trump Into War With Iran?

It is possible to argue that if Wilkerson went along with the exaggerations in 2003, what is the guarantee that he is not once again exaggerating present dangers?

There is nothing about the present White House that leaves one sanguine on any count. It would be rank bad form to compare the President of the United States with Caligula but folks are making that comparison to good effect. Caligula elevated his horse to a cabinet rank. Donald Trump has committed no such misdemeanor thus far. But no one can bet on the future.

While his buddies across the Atlantic are in convulsions over Putin dispensing nerve agents on the streets of Britain, Trump has made a quiet telephonic contact with the same Russian gent. No one can make out whether he is cooing or barking on the telephone line.

Washington’s current policy towards Iran, which carries Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner’s imprimatur, is quite transparent: leave it outside the regional order the US seeks to impose in West Asia (Middle East). And then defang Iran in every possible way, including military action.

This is the exact opposite of the order Barack Obama-John Kerry had sketched for the region.

The 2015 nuclear deal with Iran was signed within a certain conceptual framework. Pivot to Asia had acquired greater saliency in Obama’s scheme. China’s extraordinary rise required the US to pay greater attention to the Pacific region. This entailed that day to day supervision of West Asian affairs by the US would no longer be possible.

The US was not running away from its West Asian responsibilities. The legitimacy conferred on Iran after the nuclear deal made it a key player in the new West Asian balance of power which Washington was proposing. Other players in this arrangement would be Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar. But Saudi Arabia and Israel, sleeping in the same bed in Syria, were totally averse to having Iran as a player in the new West Asian balance. It was galling for the Israeli-Saudi duet when Russia with the help of Irancontrolled militias and Turkey’s switch in favour of Assad, turned the tide in Syria.

This is when Trump appeared in the White House, not quite Caligula incarnate but more or less there. As candidate he had told Jake Tapper of the CNN that billions of dollars had been given to groups in Syria who may well have been the Islamic State. “I think they were the Islamic state”, he said with certainty. The interview is available on youtube.

Instead of wasting money on questionable groups, Trump has fallen back on a strategy closest to his heart: making money. Towards this end he has American boots on the ground in Syria for which a prohibitive bill will be submitted to an embattled, Saudi King-to-be, running helter skelter between Yemen, Syria, Qatif and the occupants of Riyadh’s Ritz Carlton hotel.

Mohammad bin Salman is not a comforting sight to a Benjamin Netanyahu, on sixes and sevens with the noose of corruption allegations tightening around his neck. Meanwhile, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran axis continue to menace.

Might Trump, in search of some success, be pushed into a pre emptive war on Iran? Can he at a time that Putin is glaring at him, eye-ball to eye-ball? True, key appointments around him can only add to Trump’s recklessness and hawk of hawks Nikki Haley is not budging from her position.

If he goes down that route he should glance at the elementary data Wilkerson has furnished: Polls show at least 4 billion people think we’re (the US) the number one threat to their security in the world; think about that for a minute – “We’ve already done Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan and Syria. We’d just be seen as continuing trend if we embark on Iran”. Is this to be America’s lasting heritage?

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PM Modi to begin two-day Israel visit, defence and trade in focus

PM Narendra Modi begins a two-day Israel visit aimed at strengthening defence cooperation, trade ties and upgrading bilateral relations to a special strategic partnership.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi will begin a two-day visit to Israel on Wednesday, with defence and trade cooperation high on the agenda. The visit is expected to further deepen the growing strategic engagement between the two countries.

During the trip, India and Israel are set to upgrade their relationship to a “special strategic partnership”, marking a significant step beyond the strategic partnership established in July 2017 during the Prime Minister’s first visit to the country.

Sources indicated that the new framework would enable expanded collaboration, including joint development of advanced defence systems and a strengthened understanding to support each other during times of need.

High-level engagements in Jerusalem

Mr Modi will be received at the airport by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his wife Sara. The two leaders are scheduled to hold a one-on-one meeting shortly after his arrival.

In Jerusalem, the Prime Minister will interact with members of the Indian community before addressing lawmakers at the Knesset, a distinction reserved for select global leaders.

On Wednesday evening, he will attend a technology exhibition showcasing Israel’s advancements, with leading Israeli industry executives expected to be present. Mr Netanyahu will also host a private dinner in his honour.

Tribute at Yad Vashem and presidential meeting

On Thursday morning, Mr Modi will pay tribute to Holocaust victims at Yad Vashem. He is also scheduled to meet Israeli President Isaac Herzog during the visit.

Defence cooperation and technology partnerships

Several memorandums of understanding are expected to be signed, including a widely discussed agreement in the defence sector. As part of the proposed arrangement, a secrecy mechanism will reportedly be created to facilitate expanded cooperation in previously restricted areas.

Local media reports have indicated discussions around air defence systems and possible integration of India into Israel’s laser-based air defence system, Or Eitan.

Beyond defence, the two nations are expected to formalise cooperation in emerging and disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum research and cybersecurity.

In New Delhi, the Ministry of External Affairs said the visit would reaffirm the deep-rooted strategic partnership and provide an opportunity to align efforts in addressing shared challenges while strengthening collaboration between the two democracies.

Defence cooperation has been a cornerstone of India-Israel relations, with Israel supplying a range of military platforms and weapon systems to India in recent years. Bilateral ties have also expanded in fields including scientific research, innovation and cybersecurity.

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Trump says tariffs will replace income tax, criticises Supreme Court setback in key address

Donald Trump has said tariffs collected from foreign nations could eventually replace income tax in the US, while criticising a Supreme Court ruling against his earlier import duties.

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US President Donald Trump has said that tariffs collected from foreign countries could eventually replace the modern system of income tax in the United States, arguing that such a shift would ease the financial burden on American citizens.

Speaking during his annual State of the Union address, Trump defended his sweeping tariff measures, asserting that countries which had “ripped off” the US for years were now paying billions of dollars in duties.

“As time goes by, I believe that tariffs, paid for by foreign countries, will, like in the past, substantially replace the modern-day system of income tax, taking a great financial burden off the people that I love,” he said.

The Republican leader credited tariffs as a key driver behind what he described as an economic turnaround. According to him, the US collected “hundreds of billions of dollars” through import duties, which he said helped secure favourable economic and national security deals.

“Countries that were ripping us off for decades are now paying us hundreds of billions of dollars,” Trump said, adding that the arrangements had resulted in growth and no inflation during that period.

Supreme Court ruling draws sharp reaction

Trump also criticised a recent 6-3 ruling by the Supreme Court of the United States that struck down his earlier sweeping import duties. He termed the verdict “very unfortunate” but maintained that most countries and corporations would continue to honour agreements already negotiated.

He said alternative legal provisions would allow his administration to retain similar tariff measures without requiring new congressional approval. “They’re a little more complex, but they’re actually probably better,” he said, referring to the legal statutes under which the revised duties would be imposed.

Hours after the ruling, Trump signed a fresh order imposing a 15 per cent tariff on imports from around the world. The new measure falls under a law that limits such duties to 150 days and is expected to take effect almost immediately.

Reciprocal tariffs and global backlash

On April 2, Trump announced “reciprocal” tariffs of up to 50 per cent on imports from countries with which the US runs trade deficits, along with a 10 per cent baseline tariff on most other nations. He invoked a 1977 law to declare the trade deficit a national emergency, which he said justified the sweeping import taxes.

Following global backlash, the administration suspended the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days to allow negotiations. According to Trump, several countries agreed to new trade terms during that period, while others faced steeper duties for not complying.

Reiterating his stance, Trump also linked tariffs to what he described as conflict resolution efforts abroad, saying the “threat of tariffs” had helped him settle disputes.

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Trump repeats claim of averting India-Pakistan nuclear war during Operation Sindoor

Donald Trump has claimed that Pakistan’s Prime Minister told him 35 million people could have died during Operation Sindoor if the US had not intervened. India denies any third-party mediation.

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US President Donald Trump has once again asserted that his administration prevented a potential nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan during last year’s military tensions, claiming that Pakistan’s Prime Minister told him that millions of lives were at stake.

Trump cites Pakistan PM in fresh remarks

Addressing a joint session of the US Congress during his State of the Union speech, Trump said he had ended eight wars within the first ten months of his second term, including tensions between India and Pakistan.

“Pakistan and India would have had a nuclear war,” Trump said. “Thirty-five million people, said the Prime Minister of Pakistan, would have died if it were not for my involvement.”

He attributed the remark to Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, claiming Sharif told him that US intervention helped prevent catastrophic casualties during the crisis.

Repeated claims of mediation

Trump has repeatedly stated that his administration brokered peace between the two South Asian neighbours. Since May 10 last year, he has claimed on multiple occasions — including through social media posts — that Washington facilitated a “full and immediate” ceasefire between India and Pakistan following talks.

The tensions followed India’s launch of Operation Sindoor on May 7. The operation targeted what India described as terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. New Delhi said the strikes were carried out in response to the April 22 Pahalgam attack that left 26 civilians dead.

India rejects third-party role

India has consistently denied any external mediation in the cessation of hostilities. According to New Delhi, the understanding to stop military action was reached through direct communication between the Directors General of Military Operations (DGMOs) of both countries.

Indian officials have maintained that no third-party intervention played a role in the talks that led to the halt in hostilities.

Trump’s renewed remarks are likely to draw attention again, given India’s firm stance that the de-escalation was the result of bilateral military-level engagement rather than US-led diplomacy.

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