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Why the BJP is (over)confident that it will win in UP

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7 years ago

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A blinkered view gives a pretty picture where the party accesses large sections except Muslims

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]A blinkered view gives a pretty picture where the party accesses large sections save Muslims

By Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr

There is little doubt that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is emotionally, ideologically and politically invested in Uttar Pradesh. The most populous state is at the heart of the Hindu heartland. BJP does not fight shy of the fact that it is a Hindi heartland party. As a matter of fact it wants to flaunt it even.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set his heart on UP from 2013 onwards when he was declared the prime ministerial candidate of the party in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. First, he chose to contest from Varanasi, with its unmistakable Hindu connection. Then he deputed Amit Shah, his Gujarat confidante to focus on UP in 2014. The strategy seemed to have paid off. The BJP won 73 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state. It was natural that Shah was credited with the success of the BJP juggernaut in UP, and he was rewarded by making him the president of the party.

Now, both Modi and Shah want to prove that they have grown roots in UP. As one of Modi’s cabinet ministers said on condition of anonymity, “We (the BJP) want to prove that 2014 Lok Sabha election was no fluke.” So, Modi, Shah and the rest in the party are sparing no effort to win in the state. Shah’s constituency by constituency, booth by booth – BJP leaders lay much store by their booth management skills – approach which paid dividends in  2014 is ostensibly replicated this time round. And it is believed that it will work a second time round. What the BJP fails to understand is that it is not the thoroughness of the preparation alone that matters, and that it depends on more than anything else it depends on the preference of the people as such.

Apart from the desire and determination to win UP, the BJP strategists also seem to believe that they have been dealt a winning hand as it were when the electoral cards were shuffled. They think that the political appeal of Samajwadi Party (SP) is confined to its core constituency of Yadavs and not to the whole spectrum of the backward classes/castes, and that of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to Jatavs and not to Dalits in general. Another Union minister, who gives the spin to the BJP thesis, says that half of the Muslim vote would go to the SP, and the other half to BSP.

In contrast, the minister arguing the case of electoral prospects of the party said that the upper castes are with the BJP, and so are the various segments of the other backward classes/castes and the remaining Dalits, the Valmikis. Of course, it is a big presumption. Even if it is assumed that many of backward class segments would not go with the SP, and therefore could vote for BJP because Congress, the other big national party in the fray in the state, is not a big players anymore and it has reduced itself to the status of a junior alliance partner to SP, the big local players. There is also the possibility that the BJP would want to choose a candidate from one of the non-Yadav backward classes as a chief ministerial candidate. But rivalries between the many non-Yadav backward classes/castes are conveniently ignored by the BJP spinmeisters. It is also not clear as to why the non-Jatav Dalits, the Valmikis, should choose BJP because they have not much to gain from the bargain. The BJP will not be able to please them all with the temptation of office.

What is interesting in the BJP is argument is that there is ideological thrust to the campaign though there is a subtle and not-so-subtle Hindutva or Hindu communalism at play here. The BJP is reconciled to the fact that Muslims will not vote for it, and so it does not factor in Muslims in its caste/community electoral calculus. If the BJP leaders are embarrassed about it, they do not show it. But they are displaying hard-nosed political realism by not counting on Muslims, but they are overstating their case by assuming that the Muslim would split, almost in half between the SP and BSP.

The other big assumption of the BJP, and even that of the pollsters, is that it is not a three-cornered contest where SP-Congress, BSP and BJP are all equal contenders and that that the vote would split three-ways. The complexity is simplified by reducing BSP into a distant third, and that it is essentially a contest between SP-Congress on the one hand and the BJP on the other. It is not even being contended that it could be a battle between BJP and BSP. This is a grudging recognition by the BJP that Akhilesh Yadav has clawed his way back into the contest.

Though there are some who are arguing that the BSP is the silent player which would steal the show on Saturday, there seems to be no reliable or tangible proof that the BSP outreach to the other castes and communities is gaining traction or not. This does not mean that BSP has failed to reach out beyond its core constituency. It just means that the pollsters have failed to detect it. Even the ardent supporters of BSP in media have not argued convincingly enough that a significant number of Muslims and Brahmins have been won over by party of Dalits. There is of course the plausible inference that Muslims are not too happy with SP post-Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013.

There are enough chinks in the constructed political armour of the BJP, which could turn out to be a sour point on Saturday.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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2024 Lok Sabha Elections

Lok Sabha elections 2024: Rahul Gandhi to contest from Raebareli, KL Sharma from Amethi

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2 hours ago

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May 3, 2024

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The Congress party unveiled its list of candidates on Friday, and the party has picked Rahul Gandhi from Raebareli and Kishori Lal Sharma from Amethi has been nominated. After a great deal of speculation regarding the two Uttar Pradesh seats, the announcement was made.

Raebareli and Amethi have both been strongholds for the Congress. Rahul Gandhi lost against BJP leader and Union Minister Smriti Irani in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections from Amethi.

Taking to social media X, Congress announced their decision to field Rahul Gandhi from Raebareli and KL Sharma from Amethi, which was made at a meeting of the Central Election Committee.

Today is the final day to submit nominations for the  fifth phase of the election, which is scheduled to held on May 20th. Both the candidates will file nominations today. 

Priyanka Gandhi praised KL Sharma shortly after the nominees for the two prestigious seats were revealed, stating that his loyalty and dedication will help him win the election.

She wrote X, her family has known Kishori Lal Sharma ji for a very long time. His dedication to serving the public good serves as an example. The Congress Party’s decision to nominate Shri Kishori Lal Ji as an Amethi candidate is a matter of joy. She also said Kishori Lal Sharma will undoubtedly win this election because of his devotion to duty and loyalty.

However, given Union minister Smriti Irani’s success in Amethi in 2019, there is worry that Rahul Gandhi’s change of seat could work in the BJP’s favour. With her impending victory, the senior BJP leader has said that the Congress’s delay was due to cold feet and is prepared to defend the seat.

KL Sharma will contest against Smriti Irani in Amethi in the Lok Sabha elections. While, Rahul Gandhi’s opponent would be Dinesh Pratap Singh, who was named by BJP for Raebareli on Thursday. Singh lost the 2019 Lok Sabha elections to former Congress president Sonia Gandhi.

Meanwhile, Rahul Gandhi  is scheduled to hold a roadshow in Raebareli after filing of nominations. Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge will also visit Raebareli today.

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2024 Lok Sabha Elections

Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh’s son Karan gets BJP Lok Sabha ticket from Kaiserganj

Karan Singh Bhushan was on December 13, 1990. He competed at the national level in double trap shooting. He has a daughter and a son. Karan Singh Bhushan completed his Bachelor of Business Administration (BBA) and law from Dr Ram Manohar Lohia Avadh University.

Published

19 hours ago

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May 2, 2024

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BJP on Thursday dropped sitting Kaiserganj MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, who has been accused of sexual harassment by women wrestlers and gave a ticket to his son, Karan Bhushan Singh. Karan Bhushan, Brij Bhushan’s younger son, is the president of the Uttar Pradesh Wrestling Association. He is also the head of The Cooperative Bank in Nawabganj in Gonda district.

Karan Singh Bhushan was on December 13, 1990. He competed at the national level in double trap shooting. He has a daughter and a son. Karan Singh Bhushan completed his Bachelor of Business Administration (BBA) and law from Dr Ram Manohar Lohia Avadh University.

He has also holds a diploma in business management from Australia. Karan Bhushan Singh is presently the president of the Uttar Pradesh wrestling association. Earlier he was the senior vice president of the UP wrestling association. Elections will be take place in Kaiserganj in the 5th phase of Lok Sabha elections on May 20. Karan Bhushan Singh is likely to file his nomination from Kaiserganj on May 3.

There has been a lot of speculation and suspense on Brij Bhushan Sharan seat this time as the former Wrestling Federation of India (WFI) chief, who is also a 6-term MP, had been accused of sexual harassment by some of the India’s top wrestlers.

Many female wrestlers, including medallists, protested against the BJP leader and demanded his arrest over the charges of sexual harassment while he was serving the position of the WFI president. Wrestlers, including Sakshi Malik and Bajrang Punia, sat on a protest at the Jantar Mantar and demanded action against the Kaiseganj MP.

The Delhi Police later registered a case against Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh under Sections 354 (assault or criminal force to woman with intent to outrage her modesty), 354D (stalking), 354A (sexual harassment) and 506 (criminal intimidation) of the IPC, on June 15, 2023. But he was granted bail on July 20, 2023.

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2024 Lok Sabha Elections

Rahul Gandhi criticises BJP, PM Modi for JD(S) alliance, seeking votes for a mass rapist

Rahul Gandhi was addressing an election rally in Karnataka’s Shivmogga where he said that PM Modi is seeking votes for a mass rapist. The Congress leader added that Narendra Modi, from a packed stage, supports that rapist and said: if the people of Karnataka vote for this rapist, it will help him.

Published

20 hours ago

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May 2, 2024

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Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on Thursday said that the sex video  case involving Prajwal Revanna, the member of Parliament from Karnataka’s Hassan, is not just a mere sex scandal but of mass rape. He also criticised the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the JD(S) and seeking votes for a mass rapist.

Rahul Gandhi was addressing an election rally in Karnataka’s Shivmogga where he said that PM Modi is seeking votes for a mass rapist. Prajwal Revanna raped a number of women and made their sex videos. The Congress leader added that Narendra Modi, from a packed stage, supports that rapist and said: if the people of Karnataka vote for this rapist, it will help him. Gandhi accused PM Modi of helping Revanna (former PM HD Deve Gowda’s grandson) escape from India.

Gandhi said even when Prajwal Revanna raped a number of women, the prime minister did not stop him from going to Germany. He said Prime Minister Narendra Modi has all the machinery, yet he allowed the mass rapist to flee to Germany. He took a sarcastic dig at PM Modi and said this is Modi’s guarantee. The Congress leader asserted that whether it’s a corrupt leader or a mass rapist, the BJP will always protect him.

Prajwal Revanna, the sitting MP from Hassan and the grandson of former PM HD Deve Gowda, has been accused of being in purported sex tapes. A number of pen drives allegedly contain his sexual assault videos which were circulated in Hassan, the Lok Sabha constituency from where he is the BJP-JD (S) candidate.

Most of the sex videos were recorded by Prajwal Revanna in his office and house. Initially, the Gowda family and the BJP termed the tapes as being doctored to tarnish the image of the family in elections but later, HD Kumaraswamy distanced himself from the tapes and said the police is investigating the matter.

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