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Why the BJP is (over)confident that it will win in UP

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A blinkered view gives a pretty picture where the party accesses large sections except Muslims

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]A blinkered view gives a pretty picture where the party accesses large sections save Muslims

By Parsa Venkateshwar Rao Jr

There is little doubt that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is emotionally, ideologically and politically invested in Uttar Pradesh. The most populous state is at the heart of the Hindu heartland. BJP does not fight shy of the fact that it is a Hindi heartland party. As a matter of fact it wants to flaunt it even.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set his heart on UP from 2013 onwards when he was declared the prime ministerial candidate of the party in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. First, he chose to contest from Varanasi, with its unmistakable Hindu connection. Then he deputed Amit Shah, his Gujarat confidante to focus on UP in 2014. The strategy seemed to have paid off. The BJP won 73 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state. It was natural that Shah was credited with the success of the BJP juggernaut in UP, and he was rewarded by making him the president of the party.

Now, both Modi and Shah want to prove that they have grown roots in UP. As one of Modi’s cabinet ministers said on condition of anonymity, “We (the BJP) want to prove that 2014 Lok Sabha election was no fluke.” So, Modi, Shah and the rest in the party are sparing no effort to win in the state. Shah’s constituency by constituency, booth by booth – BJP leaders lay much store by their booth management skills – approach which paid dividends in  2014 is ostensibly replicated this time round. And it is believed that it will work a second time round. What the BJP fails to understand is that it is not the thoroughness of the preparation alone that matters, and that it depends on more than anything else it depends on the preference of the people as such.

Apart from the desire and determination to win UP, the BJP strategists also seem to believe that they have been dealt a winning hand as it were when the electoral cards were shuffled. They think that the political appeal of Samajwadi Party (SP) is confined to its core constituency of Yadavs and not to the whole spectrum of the backward classes/castes, and that of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to Jatavs and not to Dalits in general. Another Union minister, who gives the spin to the BJP thesis, says that half of the Muslim vote would go to the SP, and the other half to BSP.

In contrast, the minister arguing the case of electoral prospects of the party said that the upper castes are with the BJP, and so are the various segments of the other backward classes/castes and the remaining Dalits, the Valmikis. Of course, it is a big presumption. Even if it is assumed that many of backward class segments would not go with the SP, and therefore could vote for BJP because Congress, the other big national party in the fray in the state, is not a big players anymore and it has reduced itself to the status of a junior alliance partner to SP, the big local players. There is also the possibility that the BJP would want to choose a candidate from one of the non-Yadav backward classes as a chief ministerial candidate. But rivalries between the many non-Yadav backward classes/castes are conveniently ignored by the BJP spinmeisters. It is also not clear as to why the non-Jatav Dalits, the Valmikis, should choose BJP because they have not much to gain from the bargain. The BJP will not be able to please them all with the temptation of office.

What is interesting in the BJP is argument is that there is ideological thrust to the campaign though there is a subtle and not-so-subtle Hindutva or Hindu communalism at play here. The BJP is reconciled to the fact that Muslims will not vote for it, and so it does not factor in Muslims in its caste/community electoral calculus. If the BJP leaders are embarrassed about it, they do not show it. But they are displaying hard-nosed political realism by not counting on Muslims, but they are overstating their case by assuming that the Muslim would split, almost in half between the SP and BSP.

The other big assumption of the BJP, and even that of the pollsters, is that it is not a three-cornered contest where SP-Congress, BSP and BJP are all equal contenders and that that the vote would split three-ways. The complexity is simplified by reducing BSP into a distant third, and that it is essentially a contest between SP-Congress on the one hand and the BJP on the other. It is not even being contended that it could be a battle between BJP and BSP. This is a grudging recognition by the BJP that Akhilesh Yadav has clawed his way back into the contest.

Though there are some who are arguing that the BSP is the silent player which would steal the show on Saturday, there seems to be no reliable or tangible proof that the BSP outreach to the other castes and communities is gaining traction or not. This does not mean that BSP has failed to reach out beyond its core constituency. It just means that the pollsters have failed to detect it. Even the ardent supporters of BSP in media have not argued convincingly enough that a significant number of Muslims and Brahmins have been won over by party of Dalits. There is of course the plausible inference that Muslims are not too happy with SP post-Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013.

There are enough chinks in the constructed political armour of the BJP, which could turn out to be a sour point on Saturday.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Man attempting to cross India-Pakistan border in Rajasthan shot dead by BSF personnel

“We are investigating the case under these acts,” he added.

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Border Security Force (BSF) personnel shot and killed an individual attempting to cross the India-Pakistan border in the Ganganagar district of Rajasthan late on Tuesday, according to police.

Jitendra Kumar, the station house officer at Kesrisinghpur police station, stated that the man was trying to breach the barbed wire fence when he was spotted by BSF personnel. “They advised him to leave the area, but when he continued to advance, the BSF personnel shot him,” said the SHO.

Sriganganagar Superintendent of Police Gaurav Yadav confirmed that the suspect was allegedly trying to enter Indian territory around midnight on December 24, 2024. Despite warnings from the BSF soldiers, he did not heed their calls, which resulted in the shooting.

The incident occurred near a village in the Kesarisinghpur area. Items recovered from the intruder included Pakistani currency notes, a cigarette packet, an identity card, and other belongings. Authorities are currently gathering more information about him.

Ongoing discussions are taking place between the armed forces and police officers regarding the incident. An FIR has been filed that includes charges of trespassing and violations of the Passports Act and the Foreigners Act, according to Kumar. “We are investigating the case under these acts,” he added.

This incident is one of several similar occurrences along the border. In August, the BSF apprehended an intruder named Jagsi Kohli, who had entered about 15 kilometers into Indian territory in Barmer after locals alerted authorities that he was asking for directions to Tharparkar, a district in Pakistan’s Sindh province.

In March of this year, another person attempting to cross the border in Ganganagar was shot by BSF personnel. There have been additional incidents reported in October 2022 and twice in March 2021, all resulting in fatalities among the intruders.

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Amit Shah, JP Nadda, Chandrababu Naidu among leaders at NDA meet in Delhi amid Ambedkar row

The alliance had decided to convene on the birthday of the late BJP leader, noted for successfully leading the first coalition government to complete its term.

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Union Home Minister Amit Shah, BJP chief J.P. Nadda and Telugu Desam Party (TDP) president and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu among leaders of the NDA met in New Delhi on Wednesday to discuss different issues including Shah’s comment on BR Ambedkar days ago in Rajya Sabha.

In attendance, apart from Shah, Nadda and Naidu, JD-U leader and Union minister Rajiv Ranjan Singh, Apna Dal (S) president and Union minister Anupriya Patel, as well as JD (S) leader and Union minister H.D. Kumaraswamy were present.

Also present were Jitan Ram Manjhi, leader of Bihar’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (S) and a minister in the Modi government, Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) president Upendra Kushwaha, a Rajya Sabha MP, and Thushar Vellappally, president of Bharath Dharma Jana Sena.

While the specific agenda of the meeting was not officially disclosed, sources indicated that discussions revolved around good governance and various political issues—principles that were central to Vajpayee’s tenure as Prime Minister. The alliance had decided to convene on the birthday of the late BJP leader, noted for successfully leading the first coalition government to complete its term.

Following the meeting, Nadda shared on X, “Attended the NDA leaders’ meeting in New Delhi today. Under the visionary leadership of PM Narendra Modi, India is achieving unprecedented milestones and has positioned itself as a global superpower. The NDA government remains committed to realizing the vision of ‘Viksit Bharat@2047’, ensuring a brighter and more prosperous future for all.”

Sanjay Nishad, chief of the NISHAD Party in Uttar Pradesh, described the meeting as “informal” and focused on Vajpayee’s legacy. He emphasised the importance of unity among all alliance members heading into future elections, mentioning that they congratulated the BJP leaders for their electoral victories in Haryana and Maharashtra.

Nishad further outlined that the meeting addressed coalition strategies to ensure that Prime Minister Modi’s initiatives effectively reach the populace and that electoral promises are fulfilled. He raised the topic of providing reservations for the fishing community, stating, “I presented evidence on this issue, as it was a poll promise. They will follow up with us next week to discuss it.”

Responding to inquiries about whether Amit Shah’s controversial remarks on Ambedkar were discussed, Nishad said, “We are here for the welfare of the people. Our energy should focus on achieving success in that area, rather than engaging with negativity from opposition parties.”

The NDA meeting underscores the alliance’s commitment to the proposed simultaneous elections, with all members backing the initiative. A Joint Committee of Parliament, established to review two bills related to simultaneous polls, is set to convene on January 8.

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Manipur CM Biren Singh says state needs immediate peace, understanding between two communities

He claimed that the administration is responding quickly to the displaced people’s needs in areas such as education and agriculture.

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Manipur Chief Minister N Biren Singh on Wednesday emphasised the urgent need for peace in the state, which has faced ethnic violence since May of last year, and called on two communities to reach a mutual understanding.

Speaking at the Good Governance Day event held at the state BJP headquarters, Singh expressed confidence that the BJP could restore stability to the northeastern state, highlighting the party’s commitment to coexisting harmoniously.

“What is happening in Manipur today has multiple causes. Those who seek to divide the state are now questioning the government’s actions… they are driven by a desire for power,” Singh remarked.

He mentioned several initiatives, such as ‘Meeyamgi Numit’ (People’s Day), designed to foster closer relationships between officials and the public. “We do not oppose any specific community. The BJP’s position is clear: we advocate for the idea of living together and have initiated efforts to strengthen ties between the police and the community,” he stated.

Singh added that the state government is diligently addressing the needs of internally displaced persons by establishing committees throughout the administrative framework. He claimed that the administration is responding quickly to the displaced people’s needs in areas such as education and agriculture.

“We have not made any mistakes. Our goal is to ensure the well-being of future generations. It is essential for both communities to remain calm. Rather than dwelling on the past, we should concentrate on the upcoming NRC process, capturing biometrics, and using 1961 as the foundation year for the Inner Line Permit,” Singh said.

He also highlighted the government’s commitment to acting within a democratic and constitutional framework, noting that achieving these goals will take time. “What we require now is immediate peace and a resolution of misunderstandings between the two communities,” he concluded.

The ongoing violence has resulted in the deaths of over 250 individuals and left thousands homeless due to clashes between the Meitei community and Kuki-Zo groups since last May.

“Only the BJP can save Manipur. BJP leaders possess strong values of nationalism and social justice, practicing reality-based politics in the nation’s interest. If I am not nominated for a ticket by the BJP, I will remain loyal to the party,” Mr. Singh added.

He also highlighted several unity-focused projects initiated by the BJP government, mentioning that a Unity Mall featuring stalls from all ethnic groups in the state will be constructed with an investment exceeding ₹140 crores.

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