English हिन्दी
Connect with us

India News

Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

Published

on

Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Here’s an overview of how various parties fared in the post-election surveys telecast by different TV channels

By Sujit Bhar

Exit polls by their nature in this country have always been unreliable. However, the social implications and impact of these polls are huge. That is possibly why the Election Commission had banned exit polls during the long election period that spanned across five states—Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Punjab, Manipur and Uttarakhand.

At the end of the last polling date, on March 8, the exit polls were back with a vengeance, and the results were, for some, expected, while for others, pretty shocking. Already, UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has indicated that he is not averse to having a tie-up with Mayawati, if the needs be, just to keep the BJP away from government.

One look at the different exit polls will give a fair picture of what is to come and the possibilities that exist within the existing complex political system.

Uttar Pradesh (Total seats 403)

This has been the centrepiece of the entire election process. UP is where kings are made and destroyed, goes the saying. At this point, as it emerges from exit polls, these are the figures available:

The BJP tally varies from 285 (News24-Chanakya) down to 155-167 (India TV-C Voter). In between there are 251-179 (India Today-Axis), 185 (NewsX-MRC) and 164-176 (ABP-CSDS).

Here a caveat: While Chanakya had predicted the 2014 Lok Sabha polls with incredible accuracy–they said BJP would get 291, and BJP ended with 282 seats–they goofed up during the Bihar elections.

The position of other parties in UP are as follows:

SP and Congress alliance: ABP-CSDS gives them the best deal, 155-169, while the lowest comes from News24-Chanakya at 88 (+/- 15). India TV-C Voter gives them 135-147, while India Today-Axis gives then 88-112. News X-MRC says they will get 120.

BSP: No channel gives Mayawati’s party a good chance. The best deal is from India TV-C Voter, at 81-93, while the poorest is from News24-Chanakya at 27 (+/- 12). Their other high is from ABP-CSDS at 60-72.

Before leaving UP, let us take a look at what pre-poll predictions were like. A January 5 opinion poll, conducted by Axis My Media on behalf of India Today TV, had said this:

BJP: 206-216
SP: 92-97
BSP: 79-85
Cong: 5-9

Remember, the Congress-SP alliance had not been worked out yet, neither had the intra-family feud broken out within SP.

Feel free to draw your own conclusion about UP. On Saturday the truth will be out.

Punjab (117)

It is an even spread between Congress and AAP. News24-Chanakya marks the Congress at 54 (+/-9).They have given AAP the exact same, while Akali Dal has got a mere 9. India TV-C Voter gives AAP the best verdict, at 59-67, pushing Congress down to 41-49. ABP-CSDS thinks Congress will win (46-56) with AAP at 36-46, while News X-MRC has AAP at 55 and Congress the exact same.

Uttarakhand (70)

The BJP verdict is clear in this state. Again, News24-Chanakya has marked the party at 53 (+/- 7), while India Today-Axis puts them at 46-53. India TV-C Voter has an interesting take: BJP and Congress at 29-35. ABP-CSDS has BJP at 34-42, with Congress at 23-29, while NewsX-MRC has 38 for BJP and 30 for Congress. The huge fracas of the state, where the court reinstated the government, seems to be turned on its head. The problem will resurface in the case of a hung assembly.

Goa (40)

Here too the BJP has a sway. India Today-Axis has the most favourable outlook for the party, with 18-22 for BJP and 9-13 for Congress, while ABP-CSDS pegs BJP at 16-22 with 9-13 for Congress. NewsX-MRC puts BJP at 15 and Congress at 10, also promoting AAP to 7.

Manipur (60)

Here, too, BJP has a decent field. India Today-Axis puts the party at 16-22, with Congress winning at 30-36, but India TV-C Voter puts it at 25-31, with Congress lagging behind at 17-23. The infamous Congress rebels here might again play up.

UNRELIABLE

As said before, exit polls have remained extremely unreliable in the past in India.

Here are some.

Lok Sabha 2014

No exit poll (except Chanakya, of course) came anywhere near predicting the massive mandate that the BJP managed (282 seats) or the total eclipse of India’s Grand Old Party, the Congress (44).

Bihar assembly 2015

BJP was touted to win, what with PM Narendra Modi promising a stupendous sum of assistance (which never came) to Bihar. In the end, a clever alliance between JD(U), RJD and even the Congress (junior) beating all predictions with a thumping victory. BJP managed just a Nelson (111).

Tamil Nadu assembly 2016

Prediction: AIADMK set to move out of the picture. Result: Late Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa returned with 136 seats.

West Bengal assembly 2016

All signs were there on the ground, but no exit poll and no pre-election opinion poll would want to believe it. The media was blinkered and when Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress renewed their position with a mandate even more massive than the last time out, it was almost unbelievable.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

L.K. Advani turns 99, PM Modi highlights his 2 defining qualities

On L.K. Advani’s 99th birthday, PM Narendra Modi highlighted two qualities he said set the BJP veteran apart — ideological clarity and intellectual sharpness.

Published

on

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday recalled the long political journey of veteran BJP leader and former Deputy Prime Minister L.K. Advani as he turned 99.

Advani, born on November 8, 1927, in Karachi, entered the 100th year of his life on Sunday. In a tribute, Mr Modi highlighted Advani’s contribution to the growth of the Bharatiya Janata Party and described two qualities that, according to him, set the veteran leader apart.

What are Advani’s 2 defining qualities?

According to PM Modi, the first defining quality was ideological clarity and intellectual sharpness.

He said this was reflected in Advani’s speeches, writings and interviews. Modi also noted that the resolutions Advani authored for the Jana Sangh and the BJP remained relevant for study.

The second quality highlighted by the Prime Minister was Advani’s manner of challenging what Modi described as “pseudo-secularism” promoted by a section of the Indian political class over the years.

Modi recalls Advani’s role in BJP’s growth

Modi said Advani played an important role in strengthening the Jana Sangh and subsequently building the BJP.

He recalled that during Advani’s terms as BJP president, the party emerged as the single-largest party in Parliament for the first time in 1996. Modi also credited Advani with nurturing successive generations of party workers and giving the BJP a foundation based on the principle of “Nation First”.

The Prime Minister also recalled the partnership between Advani and former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. He said the two leaders worked together for decades without becoming competitors and together influenced the course of Indian politics.

Advani’s journey from Rajasthan to national politics

Modi recalled Advani’s early work as an RSS pracharak in Rajasthan before he moved to Delhi and became involved in the Jana Sangh.

Advani became chairman of the Delhi Metropolitan Council in 1967, while his parliamentary career began in 1970. He later served as Leader of the Opposition and held key positions in the Union government.

Modi also remembered his association with Advani during the 1991 Lok Sabha election campaign. He said he helped prepare Advani’s papers and assisted him during the campaign when the BJP leader contested from Gandhinagar among two seats.

Modi recalls Emergency, Rath Yatra and Advani’s public life

The Prime Minister described the Emergency as a significant phase in Advani’s life and recalled his experiences during that period.

He also highlighted Advani’s role in the Somnath-to-Ayodhya Rath Yatra and said he had been involved in the initiative from its planning stage through its execution. Modi recalled Advani’s arrest in Bihar during the Yatra and the subsequent political developments in Gujarat.

Beyond politics, Modi described Advani as an avid reader with an interest in cinema, theatre and history. He also recalled Advani’s efforts to remain connected with Sindhi culture and his association with the Sindhu Darshan Puja near Leh.

Advani was awarded Bharat Ratna in 2024

Modi also referred to Advani receiving the Bharat Ratna in 2024, recognising his decades of public service.

Advani, who served as Deputy Prime Minister and Home Minister, has been one of the BJP’s most prominent leaders and played a significant role in the party’s political journey.

Concluding his birthday tribute, Modi wished Advani good health as he entered his 100th year.

Continue Reading

India News

Yogi Adityanath takes a dig at Akhilesh Yadav over Ram Temple visit plan

Yogi Adityanath’s remarks came after the Samajwadi Party announced that Akhilesh Yadav would visit the Ram Temple in Ayodhya on December 12.

Published

on

Yogi Adityanath

Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath on Saturday took an apparent swipe at Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav over his planned visit to the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, saying those who had fired on Ram devotees should first apologise to them and to the saints.

Yogi made the remarks while addressing the 10th edition of Deepotsav in Ayodhya. He did not name Akhilesh Yadav directly.

Yogi’s remarks come after Akhilesh’s Ayodhya visit plan

The chief minister’s comments came after the Samajwadi Party announced that Akhilesh Yadav would visit the Ram Temple in Ayodhya on December 12. It would be his first visit to the temple since its inauguration, according to the report.

Yogi said those who had earlier neglected and insulted Ayodhya, opened fire on Ram devotees and subjected saints to lathicharge should come to the city only after seeking forgiveness.

“Let them apologise to the devotees of Lord Ram; let them apologise to the saints,” Yogi said, adding that they should repent for their past actions.

Reference to 1990 firing on kar sevaks

Yogi’s remarks referred to the 1990 police firing on kar sevaks during the Ram Janmabhoomi movement. At the time, the Uttar Pradesh government was headed by Mulayam Singh Yadav, Akhilesh Yadav’s father.

The chief minister said those who had once “bloodied” Ayodhya were now remembering the city. He also criticised political leaders over their conduct at religious gatherings, referring to the decorum of a katha.

Akhilesh has not yet visited the Ram Temple

Akhilesh Yadav has visited Ayodhya earlier but has not so far visited the Ram Temple. The SP leader was in the city on October 8 to attend a Bhagwat Katha organised by party leader Pawan Pandey.

According to the report, Akhilesh and his wife, Mainpuri MP Dimple Yadav, are scheduled to offer prayers at the Ram Temple and Hanumangarhi on December 12.

The planned visit comes amid political activity in Ayodhya ahead of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections due by February 2027.

Yogi highlights Ayodhya’s transformation

During his Deepotsav address, Yogi also spoke about the changes in Ayodhya and described the city’s transformation as an ideological victory.

He said those who had previously neglected Ayodhya were now witnessing its development. He also said Lord Ram represented India’s national consciousness, culture, values and self-respect.

The chief minister further recalled the Ram Janmabhoomi movement and said Ayodhya had regained the glory for which kar sevaks and saints had struggled.

Continue Reading

India News

Ahead of Diwali, Yogi govt hikes DA by 5% for UP government staff

The Uttar Pradesh government has increased Dearness Allowance by 5 percentage points, taking it from 58% to 63%. The revised rate will benefit lakhs of eligible employees ahead of Diwali.

Published

on

Yogi Adityanath

The Uttar Pradesh government has announced a 5 per cent increase in Dearness Allowance (DA) for state government employees ahead of Diwali. With this revision, the DA rate has increased from 58 per cent to 63 per cent, providing financial relief to lakhs of eligible employees across the state.

The revised allowance will be effective from July 1, 2026, according to the government announcement. A government order was also issued on Saturday, November 7.

The enhanced DA will be paid along with employees’ regular November 2026 salaries.

Which employees will benefit from the DA hike?

The decision covers regular state government employees and several other categories of eligible staff.

These include employees of aided educational and technical institutions, regular and full-time employees of urban local bodies, work-charged employees and personnel drawing salaries under University Grants Commission (UGC) pay scales.

The revision is expected to benefit a large section of the Uttar Pradesh workforce ahead of the festive season.

What happens to the DA arrears?

The revised DA rate will apply retrospectively from July 1, 2026. Consequently, employees will also be entitled to arrears for the period preceding the November salary payment.

The government has made provisions for the payment of the arrears for July to October 2026. These amounts will be credited to employees’ provident fund accounts, according to the reported payment arrangements.

The enhanced allowance for November will be reflected in the regular salary for that month.

The decision comes ahead of Diwali and will provide additional financial relief to eligible government employees in Uttar Pradesh.

Continue Reading

Trending

© Copyright 2022 APNLIVE.com