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Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

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Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Here’s an overview of how various parties fared in the post-election surveys telecast by different TV channels

By Sujit Bhar

Exit polls by their nature in this country have always been unreliable. However, the social implications and impact of these polls are huge. That is possibly why the Election Commission had banned exit polls during the long election period that spanned across five states—Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Punjab, Manipur and Uttarakhand.

At the end of the last polling date, on March 8, the exit polls were back with a vengeance, and the results were, for some, expected, while for others, pretty shocking. Already, UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has indicated that he is not averse to having a tie-up with Mayawati, if the needs be, just to keep the BJP away from government.

One look at the different exit polls will give a fair picture of what is to come and the possibilities that exist within the existing complex political system.

Uttar Pradesh (Total seats 403)

This has been the centrepiece of the entire election process. UP is where kings are made and destroyed, goes the saying. At this point, as it emerges from exit polls, these are the figures available:

The BJP tally varies from 285 (News24-Chanakya) down to 155-167 (India TV-C Voter). In between there are 251-179 (India Today-Axis), 185 (NewsX-MRC) and 164-176 (ABP-CSDS).

Here a caveat: While Chanakya had predicted the 2014 Lok Sabha polls with incredible accuracy–they said BJP would get 291, and BJP ended with 282 seats–they goofed up during the Bihar elections.

The position of other parties in UP are as follows:

SP and Congress alliance: ABP-CSDS gives them the best deal, 155-169, while the lowest comes from News24-Chanakya at 88 (+/- 15). India TV-C Voter gives them 135-147, while India Today-Axis gives then 88-112. News X-MRC says they will get 120.

BSP: No channel gives Mayawati’s party a good chance. The best deal is from India TV-C Voter, at 81-93, while the poorest is from News24-Chanakya at 27 (+/- 12). Their other high is from ABP-CSDS at 60-72.

Before leaving UP, let us take a look at what pre-poll predictions were like. A January 5 opinion poll, conducted by Axis My Media on behalf of India Today TV, had said this:

BJP: 206-216
SP: 92-97
BSP: 79-85
Cong: 5-9

Remember, the Congress-SP alliance had not been worked out yet, neither had the intra-family feud broken out within SP.

Feel free to draw your own conclusion about UP. On Saturday the truth will be out.

Punjab (117)

It is an even spread between Congress and AAP. News24-Chanakya marks the Congress at 54 (+/-9).They have given AAP the exact same, while Akali Dal has got a mere 9. India TV-C Voter gives AAP the best verdict, at 59-67, pushing Congress down to 41-49. ABP-CSDS thinks Congress will win (46-56) with AAP at 36-46, while News X-MRC has AAP at 55 and Congress the exact same.

Uttarakhand (70)

The BJP verdict is clear in this state. Again, News24-Chanakya has marked the party at 53 (+/- 7), while India Today-Axis puts them at 46-53. India TV-C Voter has an interesting take: BJP and Congress at 29-35. ABP-CSDS has BJP at 34-42, with Congress at 23-29, while NewsX-MRC has 38 for BJP and 30 for Congress. The huge fracas of the state, where the court reinstated the government, seems to be turned on its head. The problem will resurface in the case of a hung assembly.

Goa (40)

Here too the BJP has a sway. India Today-Axis has the most favourable outlook for the party, with 18-22 for BJP and 9-13 for Congress, while ABP-CSDS pegs BJP at 16-22 with 9-13 for Congress. NewsX-MRC puts BJP at 15 and Congress at 10, also promoting AAP to 7.

Manipur (60)

Here, too, BJP has a decent field. India Today-Axis puts the party at 16-22, with Congress winning at 30-36, but India TV-C Voter puts it at 25-31, with Congress lagging behind at 17-23. The infamous Congress rebels here might again play up.

UNRELIABLE

As said before, exit polls have remained extremely unreliable in the past in India.

Here are some.

Lok Sabha 2014

No exit poll (except Chanakya, of course) came anywhere near predicting the massive mandate that the BJP managed (282 seats) or the total eclipse of India’s Grand Old Party, the Congress (44).

Bihar assembly 2015

BJP was touted to win, what with PM Narendra Modi promising a stupendous sum of assistance (which never came) to Bihar. In the end, a clever alliance between JD(U), RJD and even the Congress (junior) beating all predictions with a thumping victory. BJP managed just a Nelson (111).

Tamil Nadu assembly 2016

Prediction: AIADMK set to move out of the picture. Result: Late Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa returned with 136 seats.

West Bengal assembly 2016

All signs were there on the ground, but no exit poll and no pre-election opinion poll would want to believe it. The media was blinkered and when Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress renewed their position with a mandate even more massive than the last time out, it was almost unbelievable.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

2024 Lok Sabha Elections

PM Modi says Congress leaders consider themselves above Lord Ram

PM Modi slammed Congress during a rally in Chhattisgarh, ahead of the Lok Sabha elections 2024

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi slammed the Congress party for declining to attend the pran pratishtha ritual at the Ayodhya Ram temple on January 22 this year.

The prime minister said Congress leaders consider themselves above Lord Ram and denied invitation for Pran Pratishtha at Ram Temple, while speaking at a rally in Janjgir-Champa, Chhattisgarh. The PM question the people present at the rally that is it not a disrespect of Mata Shabri? Congress leaders inclination toward appeasement politics runs in their family.

For political appeasement, they won’t think twice about stealing the rights of Adivasis, the poor, and Dalits. Poor, young, and women are BJP’s top priorities, Modi said.

PM Modi criticized the Congress again during the rally for claiming that the BJP would alter the constitution.

The leaders of Congress recite the same old phrases whenever an election is about to happen, the PM said. He also said they claim that if the BJP wins power, it will renounce the constitution and abolish reservations. For how long will you continue selling lies?” he asked.

The prime minister continued saying that nobody can change the Constitution, even if Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar were to come and insist on it, it wouldn’t happen.

Those in the Congress threaten to break Modi’s head. Nobody can harm Modi as long as the mothers and sisters of this county stands by him. These mothers and sisters are Raksha Kavach, Modi remarked.

The prime minister further attacked the Congress after Viriato Fernandes, the party’s candidate for South Goa, asserted that Goa was forced to adopt the Indian Constitution.

Referring to his conversation with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Fernandes said he had told him, when Goa was liberated in the year 1961, the Indian Constitution was forced upon us.

The prime minister said, Congress candidate from Goa says Constitution was forced upon Goans; is this not an insult of Ambedkar and Constitution.

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2024 Lok Sabha Elections

Amit Shah says neither Congress nor Trinamool chief Mamata Banerjee can interfere with CAA

Amit Shah revealed the BJP’s target for West Bengal and said they have set a target of winning 35 Lok Sabha seats from West Bengal.

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Union home minister Amit Shah on Tuesday said neither Congress nor Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee can interfere with the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). He was speaking at the Karandighi rally in West Bengal where he also made the prediction as to how many seats BJP will win in the Lok Sabha elections in West Bengal.

The union home minister asked the masses to cut the money culture. Amit Shah revealed the BJP’s target for West Bengal and said they have set a target of winning 35 Lok Sabha seats from West Bengal. In 2019 Lok Sabha elections the BJP had won 18 out of 42 seats in West Bengal. He asked Mamata Banerjee, what problem will she have if the Buddhist and Hindu refugees from Bangladesh get citizenship in India?

Shah further added if the people of West Bengal want to stop infiltration in the state, then they will have to make Narendra Modi the Prime Minister of India again. He said if the people of West Bengal want to free Bengal of violence, stop infiltration in the state, give citizenship to refugees, to stop disrespecting mothers and sisters of the state as it happened in Sandeshkhali, then  only way is to make Narendra Modi the Prime Minister.

Amit Shah said that PM Modi had sent Rs 7 lakh crore to West Bengal but the TMC indulged in corruption. He said one can see the houses of Trinamool Congress leaders; 10 years ago they used to live in a hut, moved on cycle and now all of them have 4-storey houses and move around in big cars. He added this is the money of people of West Bengal.

The Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), will make it easier for non-Muslim refugees from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh to get Indian citizenship, was enacted in 2019. But the rules were notified in March this year by the Centre.

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2024 Lok Sabha Elections

Prime Minister Narendra Modi says listening to Hanuman Chalisa under Congress rule is a crime

PM Modi was addressing an election rally in Rajasthan’s Tonk-Sawai Madhopur, on a day as India celebrates Hanuman Jayanti.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday hit out at the Congress and said even listening to Hanuman Chalisa has become a crime under the party’s rule. The Prime Minister also said it was difficult to follow one’s faith under the party and accused it of hatching a deep conspiracy to snatch people’s wealth and distribute it among selected few people in the society. PM Modi was addressing an election rally in Rajasthan’s Tonk-Sawai Madhopur, on a day as India celebrates Hanuman Jayanti.

PM Modi said in a state like Rajasthan where people chant Ram-Ram, Congress banned Ram Navami. He reffered to the redistribution of wealth remarks he had made during a rally in Rajasthan’s Banswara on Sunday and said it has angered the Congress and INDI Alliance so much that they have started throwing abuses at Modi everywhere.

The Prime Minister said that Congress has written in their manifesto that they will survey the wealth. He said the Congress leadership had said in a speech that an X-ray of wealth will be done. He added when Modi exposed the secret then the hidden agenda came out and this has left the people trembling. PM Modi further added that the Congress party has played with the Constitution of the India.

He said when the Constitution was drafted, reservations based on religion were opposed, so that Scheduled Casts (SC), Scheduled Tribes (ST) and Other Backward Classes (OBC) could get protection. He said former Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh had said that Muslims have the first right to the country’s resources.  The prime minister further added Congress’s ideology has always been of appeasement and vote bank politics. He said stones would still be pelted in Jammu and Kashmir, and enemies would still be cutting off the heads of India’s soldiers had Congress been in power.

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