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Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

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Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Here’s an overview of how various parties fared in the post-election surveys telecast by different TV channels

By Sujit Bhar

Exit polls by their nature in this country have always been unreliable. However, the social implications and impact of these polls are huge. That is possibly why the Election Commission had banned exit polls during the long election period that spanned across five states—Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Punjab, Manipur and Uttarakhand.

At the end of the last polling date, on March 8, the exit polls were back with a vengeance, and the results were, for some, expected, while for others, pretty shocking. Already, UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has indicated that he is not averse to having a tie-up with Mayawati, if the needs be, just to keep the BJP away from government.

One look at the different exit polls will give a fair picture of what is to come and the possibilities that exist within the existing complex political system.

Uttar Pradesh (Total seats 403)

This has been the centrepiece of the entire election process. UP is where kings are made and destroyed, goes the saying. At this point, as it emerges from exit polls, these are the figures available:

The BJP tally varies from 285 (News24-Chanakya) down to 155-167 (India TV-C Voter). In between there are 251-179 (India Today-Axis), 185 (NewsX-MRC) and 164-176 (ABP-CSDS).

Here a caveat: While Chanakya had predicted the 2014 Lok Sabha polls with incredible accuracy–they said BJP would get 291, and BJP ended with 282 seats–they goofed up during the Bihar elections.

The position of other parties in UP are as follows:

SP and Congress alliance: ABP-CSDS gives them the best deal, 155-169, while the lowest comes from News24-Chanakya at 88 (+/- 15). India TV-C Voter gives them 135-147, while India Today-Axis gives then 88-112. News X-MRC says they will get 120.

BSP: No channel gives Mayawati’s party a good chance. The best deal is from India TV-C Voter, at 81-93, while the poorest is from News24-Chanakya at 27 (+/- 12). Their other high is from ABP-CSDS at 60-72.

Before leaving UP, let us take a look at what pre-poll predictions were like. A January 5 opinion poll, conducted by Axis My Media on behalf of India Today TV, had said this:

BJP: 206-216
SP: 92-97
BSP: 79-85
Cong: 5-9

Remember, the Congress-SP alliance had not been worked out yet, neither had the intra-family feud broken out within SP.

Feel free to draw your own conclusion about UP. On Saturday the truth will be out.

Punjab (117)

It is an even spread between Congress and AAP. News24-Chanakya marks the Congress at 54 (+/-9).They have given AAP the exact same, while Akali Dal has got a mere 9. India TV-C Voter gives AAP the best verdict, at 59-67, pushing Congress down to 41-49. ABP-CSDS thinks Congress will win (46-56) with AAP at 36-46, while News X-MRC has AAP at 55 and Congress the exact same.

Uttarakhand (70)

The BJP verdict is clear in this state. Again, News24-Chanakya has marked the party at 53 (+/- 7), while India Today-Axis puts them at 46-53. India TV-C Voter has an interesting take: BJP and Congress at 29-35. ABP-CSDS has BJP at 34-42, with Congress at 23-29, while NewsX-MRC has 38 for BJP and 30 for Congress. The huge fracas of the state, where the court reinstated the government, seems to be turned on its head. The problem will resurface in the case of a hung assembly.

Goa (40)

Here too the BJP has a sway. India Today-Axis has the most favourable outlook for the party, with 18-22 for BJP and 9-13 for Congress, while ABP-CSDS pegs BJP at 16-22 with 9-13 for Congress. NewsX-MRC puts BJP at 15 and Congress at 10, also promoting AAP to 7.

Manipur (60)

Here, too, BJP has a decent field. India Today-Axis puts the party at 16-22, with Congress winning at 30-36, but India TV-C Voter puts it at 25-31, with Congress lagging behind at 17-23. The infamous Congress rebels here might again play up.

UNRELIABLE

As said before, exit polls have remained extremely unreliable in the past in India.

Here are some.

Lok Sabha 2014

No exit poll (except Chanakya, of course) came anywhere near predicting the massive mandate that the BJP managed (282 seats) or the total eclipse of India’s Grand Old Party, the Congress (44).

Bihar assembly 2015

BJP was touted to win, what with PM Narendra Modi promising a stupendous sum of assistance (which never came) to Bihar. In the end, a clever alliance between JD(U), RJD and even the Congress (junior) beating all predictions with a thumping victory. BJP managed just a Nelson (111).

Tamil Nadu assembly 2016

Prediction: AIADMK set to move out of the picture. Result: Late Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa returned with 136 seats.

West Bengal assembly 2016

All signs were there on the ground, but no exit poll and no pre-election opinion poll would want to believe it. The media was blinkered and when Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress renewed their position with a mandate even more massive than the last time out, it was almost unbelievable.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

India News

Amit Shah praises Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation, says Nation above post

Amit Shah hailed Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation as Union Education Minister, saying BJP places the nation and students above any position while highlighting the government’s commitment to examination reforms.

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Amit Shah

Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Saturday praised Dharmendra Pradhan’s decision to step down as Union Education Minister, saying the move reflected the Bharatiya Janata Party’s commitment to placing the nation and students above any political position.

In a post on X, Shah said that for BJP workers, the country, its youth and students are more important than any office. He described Pradhan’s resignation as an example of the party’s guiding principle of prioritising national interest over personal ambition.

Shah highlights government’s focus on exam reforms

Amit Shah said the Narendra Modi-led government respects the sentiments of students and remains committed to strengthening the examination system following concerns over alleged paper leaks.

He said the Centre has introduced strict measures to ensure severe punishment for those involved in examination paper leaks and expressed confidence that these steps would deliver justice to students who cleared the National Eligibility-cum-Entrance Test (NEET).

Praises Pradhan’s work as Education Minister

Recalling Dharmendra Pradhan’s tenure, Shah highlighted several initiatives undertaken during his time in the Education Ministry. He credited Pradhan with helping implement the National Education Policy (NEP), expanding PM SHRI schools, promoting digital education, strengthening skill development and improving coordination between industry and academic institutions.

Shah also said Pradhan worked towards making examinations more inclusive and student-centric, adding that his tenure reflected his commitment to the vision of a developed India.

Resignation follows NEET controversy

Dharmendra Pradhan’s resignation comes amid nationwide protests over alleged irregularities in the NEET examination and growing demands for accountability.

The resignation has triggered political reactions across party lines. While opposition parties have described the development as a result of sustained student protests, BJP leaders have projected it as an example of accountability and commitment to national interest.

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India News

Assam flood death toll rises to 66, over 6.5 lakh people still affected

Assam’s flood situation improved slightly on Saturday, but more than 6.54 lakh people remain affected in six districts. Four fresh deaths have pushed the state’s flood toll to 66.

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Assam floods

The flood situation in Assam showed marginal improvement on Saturday, though the disaster continued to impact more than 6.54 lakh people across six districts. Four more deaths were reported during the day, taking the total number of fatalities in this year’s floods to 66.

According to the Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA), three of the latest deaths were reported from Sivasagar district, while one person lost their life in Charaideo.

The number of affected people declined from over 7.05 lakh across nine districts on Friday to 6,54,800 across six districts on Saturday, indicating a gradual improvement in the overall situation.

Sivasagar remains the worst-hit district

Among the affected districts, Sivasagar continues to be the worst hit, with nearly 2.9 lakh people impacted by the floods. Charaideo follows with around 1.9 lakh affected residents, while more than 1.3 lakh people remain affected in Jorhat.

The other districts still facing flood-related challenges are Dibrugarh, Golaghat and Nagaon.

Relief operations continue across affected areas

The ASDMA said the state administration is operating 274 relief camps and aid distribution centres across the affected districts. Around 18,902 displaced people are currently taking shelter at these facilities.

The latest daily bulletin also stated that floodwaters have inundated 810 villages across the state, while 34,970.8 hectares of agricultural land have suffered damage.

Rivers flowing above danger level

The floods have also damaged embankments, roads, bridges and other public infrastructure in several areas.

Authorities said the Dikhou River in Sivasagar and the Dhansiri River at Numaligarh are flowing above the danger level, and officials continue to closely monitor the situation.

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India News

UP Government forms new SIT led by 3 IPS officers to probe Ayodhya Ram Temple donation theft

The Uttar Pradesh government has formed a new SIT led by three IPS officers to investigate the alleged Ram Temple donation theft case in Ayodhya following Supreme Court directions.

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Ram Mandir

The Uttar Pradesh government has reconstituted a Special Investigation Team (SIT) headed by IG Kiran S, with DIG Somen Verma and SSP Dr Gaurav Grover as members, to investigate the alleged theft of donations meant for the Ram Temple in Ayodhya. 

The move comes after directions from the Supreme Court, which sought a reconstituted investigation team to ensure an independent and comprehensive probe into the allegations.

The newly formed SIT is expected to continue the investigation and submit a status report before the Supreme Court on July 27.

Senior IPS officers to lead the probe

According to the state government, the investigation will now be supervised by senior IPS officers.  The revamped SIT has been tasked with examining all aspects of the alleged embezzlement of temple donations and carrying the investigation forward.

The Supreme Court had observed that criminal investigations and technical examination of theft-related cases are more effectively handled by experienced police officers, leading to the reconstitution of the SIT under senior IPS leadership.

Probe to continue under court supervision

The case relates to the alleged embezzlement of offerings (chadhava) donated by devotees at the Shri Ram Janmabhoomi Temple in Ayodhya.

The Supreme Court is monitoring the investigation and will review the SIT’s status report at the next hearing.

Authorities are expected to continue examining evidence collected during the earlier stages of the investigation as the newly constituted SIT proceeds with the case.

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