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Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

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9 years ago

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Unreliably learnt: Exit polls

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Here’s an overview of how various parties fared in the post-election surveys telecast by different TV channels

By Sujit Bhar

Exit polls by their nature in this country have always been unreliable. However, the social implications and impact of these polls are huge. That is possibly why the Election Commission had banned exit polls during the long election period that spanned across five states—Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Punjab, Manipur and Uttarakhand.

At the end of the last polling date, on March 8, the exit polls were back with a vengeance, and the results were, for some, expected, while for others, pretty shocking. Already, UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has indicated that he is not averse to having a tie-up with Mayawati, if the needs be, just to keep the BJP away from government.

One look at the different exit polls will give a fair picture of what is to come and the possibilities that exist within the existing complex political system.

Uttar Pradesh (Total seats 403)

This has been the centrepiece of the entire election process. UP is where kings are made and destroyed, goes the saying. At this point, as it emerges from exit polls, these are the figures available:

The BJP tally varies from 285 (News24-Chanakya) down to 155-167 (India TV-C Voter). In between there are 251-179 (India Today-Axis), 185 (NewsX-MRC) and 164-176 (ABP-CSDS).

Here a caveat: While Chanakya had predicted the 2014 Lok Sabha polls with incredible accuracy–they said BJP would get 291, and BJP ended with 282 seats–they goofed up during the Bihar elections.

The position of other parties in UP are as follows:

SP and Congress alliance: ABP-CSDS gives them the best deal, 155-169, while the lowest comes from News24-Chanakya at 88 (+/- 15). India TV-C Voter gives them 135-147, while India Today-Axis gives then 88-112. News X-MRC says they will get 120.

BSP: No channel gives Mayawati’s party a good chance. The best deal is from India TV-C Voter, at 81-93, while the poorest is from News24-Chanakya at 27 (+/- 12). Their other high is from ABP-CSDS at 60-72.

Before leaving UP, let us take a look at what pre-poll predictions were like. A January 5 opinion poll, conducted by Axis My Media on behalf of India Today TV, had said this:

BJP: 206-216
SP: 92-97
BSP: 79-85
Cong: 5-9

Remember, the Congress-SP alliance had not been worked out yet, neither had the intra-family feud broken out within SP.

Feel free to draw your own conclusion about UP. On Saturday the truth will be out.

Punjab (117)

It is an even spread between Congress and AAP. News24-Chanakya marks the Congress at 54 (+/-9).They have given AAP the exact same, while Akali Dal has got a mere 9. India TV-C Voter gives AAP the best verdict, at 59-67, pushing Congress down to 41-49. ABP-CSDS thinks Congress will win (46-56) with AAP at 36-46, while News X-MRC has AAP at 55 and Congress the exact same.

Uttarakhand (70)

The BJP verdict is clear in this state. Again, News24-Chanakya has marked the party at 53 (+/- 7), while India Today-Axis puts them at 46-53. India TV-C Voter has an interesting take: BJP and Congress at 29-35. ABP-CSDS has BJP at 34-42, with Congress at 23-29, while NewsX-MRC has 38 for BJP and 30 for Congress. The huge fracas of the state, where the court reinstated the government, seems to be turned on its head. The problem will resurface in the case of a hung assembly.

Goa (40)

Here too the BJP has a sway. India Today-Axis has the most favourable outlook for the party, with 18-22 for BJP and 9-13 for Congress, while ABP-CSDS pegs BJP at 16-22 with 9-13 for Congress. NewsX-MRC puts BJP at 15 and Congress at 10, also promoting AAP to 7.

Manipur (60)

Here, too, BJP has a decent field. India Today-Axis puts the party at 16-22, with Congress winning at 30-36, but India TV-C Voter puts it at 25-31, with Congress lagging behind at 17-23. The infamous Congress rebels here might again play up.

UNRELIABLE

As said before, exit polls have remained extremely unreliable in the past in India.

Here are some.

Lok Sabha 2014

No exit poll (except Chanakya, of course) came anywhere near predicting the massive mandate that the BJP managed (282 seats) or the total eclipse of India’s Grand Old Party, the Congress (44).

Bihar assembly 2015

BJP was touted to win, what with PM Narendra Modi promising a stupendous sum of assistance (which never came) to Bihar. In the end, a clever alliance between JD(U), RJD and even the Congress (junior) beating all predictions with a thumping victory. BJP managed just a Nelson (111).

Tamil Nadu assembly 2016

Prediction: AIADMK set to move out of the picture. Result: Late Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa returned with 136 seats.

West Bengal assembly 2016

All signs were there on the ground, but no exit poll and no pre-election opinion poll would want to believe it. The media was blinkered and when Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress renewed their position with a mandate even more massive than the last time out, it was almost unbelievable.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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PM Modi takes aim at critics with Dimagi Naxal remark at SRCC centenary address

PM Modi revived his dimagi Naxal remark at SRCC’s centenary celebrations and spoke about India’s development journey.

Published

7 hours ago

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September 6, 2026

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PM Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi revived his ‘dimagi Naxal’ remark while addressing the centenary celebrations of Shri Ram College of Commerce (SRCC) in Delhi on Saturday, using the term to criticise his opponents.

Speaking to students at the Delhi college, PM Modi described the phrase as a “homeopathic pill” and said it had prompted those he described as “dimagi Naxals” to come forward and reveal their views.

The prime minister also used his address to speak to Gen-Z about India’s development journey and asked students to consider the challenges the country had faced in the past.

PM Modi recalls past crises

During his speech, PM Modi referred to the 2013 Kedarnath disaster and the 2008 global financial crisis while criticising the handling of national emergencies by previous governments.

He said the government at the time of the Kedarnath disaster was shaken and questioned its ability to respond to the crisis.

Referring to the 2008 banking crisis, PM Modi alleged that the government of the time failed to effectively deal with the situation and claimed that India’s banking system was pushed close to collapse.

Prime minister lists challenges faced by his government

PM Modi also highlighted several major global crises that occurred during his government’s tenure.

He mentioned the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, disruptions to global trade and supply chains, and the crisis in West Asia.

The prime minister said there had been concerns that India would struggle during these crises but argued that the country had continued to move forward.

PM Modi’s earlier SRCC visit

PM Modi had earlier visited SRCC in 2013, when he was the chief minister of Gujarat. His speech at the college received significant attention, particularly on social media, ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha election.

His latest visit came during the college’s centenary celebrations, where his address focused on young people, India’s development ambitions and the challenges faced by the country.

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India Metro Rail Network May Overtake US in 2 Years

India’s metro rail network has reached 1,170 km across 26 cities. Union minister Manohar Lal said the country could overtake the US in network length within two years.

Published

21 hours ago

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September 5, 2026

By

Manohar Lal Khattar

India is on track to become the country with the second-largest metro rail network in the world after China, with Union Minister Manohar Lal saying the country could overtake the United States within the next two years.

India’s metro rail network has now expanded to 1,170 km across 26 cities. The network is only 216 km shorter than the US metro rail network, which stands at 1,386 km, according to figures cited by the minister.

India’s metro network expands rapidly

Speaking after the inauguration of an extended metro service in Indore, Manohar Lal highlighted the pace at which metro connectivity has grown in India.

He said metro services were operational across just 245 km in five cities when Prime Minister Narendra Modi assumed office in 2014. The network has since expanded to 1,170 km across 26 cities.

The minister said India could overtake the US in terms of metro rail network length in the next two years and become the world’s second-largest country in this segment after China.

China currently has around 8,000 km of metro rail lines, according to the figures cited by the minister.

Indore metro extension inaugurated

The minister made the remarks after inaugurating an extended section of the Indore metro. The project was built at a cost of around Rs 2,850 crore.

The Indore metro was earlier operating commercially on a six-km stretch between Gandhi Nagar and Super Corridor-3 stations. Following the extension, the service will operate on a 17-km route between Gandhi Nagar and Malviya Nagar Chauraha.

Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Mohan Yadav said the metro service would mark a new phase in Indore’s development. He also said the network would eventually be extended to Ujjain and other nearby areas.

India’s metro rail network: Key figures

  • India currently has 1,170 km of operational metro rail network.
  • Metro services are operational across 26 cities.
  • The US has around 1,386 km of metro rail network.
  • India is currently 216 km behind the US.
  • China has around 8,000 km of metro rail lines.
  • India’s operational network stood at 245 km across five cities in 2014.

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India News

PM Modi returns to SRCC after 13 years, revisits 2013 glass full speech

PM Narendra Modi returned to SRCC after 13 years for its centenary celebrations, revisiting themes from his landmark 2013 address.

Published

22 hours ago

on

September 5, 2026

By

PM Narendra Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi returned to Delhi University’s Shri Ram College of Commerce (SRCC) on Saturday, 13 years after his previous visit to the institution as Gujarat chief minister. 

His latest visit came as SRCC marked its centenary celebrations. Modi’s 2013 address at the college had attracted significant attention as he spoke about India’s youth, governance and the country’s demographic potential.

In 2013, Modi was Gujarat chief minister and had not yet been named the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate. He returned to the same campus this year as Prime Minister, having completed 12 years as Prime Minister and serving his third consecutive term. 

What PM Modi said at SRCC in 2013

The 2013 lecture was titled Emerging Business Models in the Global Scenario. The address also covered governance and India’s young population.

He described India’s youth as a source of national strength rather than simply a group of new-age voters. He also highlighted India’s demographic advantage and argued that the country needed to make better use of its young population.

One of the notable moments from the speech involved a glass of water.  Modi contrasted the conventional descriptions of a glass as half full or half empty and said he viewed it as full, with half containing water and the other half air.

The speech also included his remarks on technology and young Indians. Referring to an anecdote from a visit to Taiwan, Modi used the phrase “mouse-charmers” to describe Indians using computers and suggested that young Indians had the ability to influence the world through technology.

‘Minimum government, maximum governance’

Modi’s 2013 address also touched on governance. He spoke about the role of government and the need for better governance.

He also spoke about India’s potential in the 21st century. 

Modi returns as PM for SRCC centenary

The September 5 visit coincided with Teachers’ Day and SRCC’s 100th anniversary. The Prime Minister’s Office had announced that Modi would participate in the college’s centenary celebrations and address the gathering. SRCC was established in 1926 by industrialist and philanthropist Sir Shri Ram.

Earlier this year, Modi also met the SRCC governing body at his residence in April in connection with the college’s centenary celebrations and released a commemorative postage stamp marking the occasion. 

The return to SRCC came 13 years after his 2013 appearance at the college, when he addressed students as Gujarat chief minister.

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