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Hosni Mubarak, the survivor, returns

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CHEATER OF MISFORTUNE: Egypt’s ousted president Hosni Mubarak inside a dock at the police academy on the outskirts of Cairo in 2014. An Egyptian court sentenced him to three years in prison on charges of stealing public funds, Reuters/UNI

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The former Egyptian president’s acquittal shows he still wields power with the West. The question is will his influence lead to the release of the thousands of other political prisoners languishing behind bars?  

By Sujit Bhar

That Egypt’s military junta respects tradition was proved once again through the acquittal and release of ex-President Hosni Mubarak from house arrest.

On March 24 Mubarak left the military hospital where he was detained—in Maadi, south of Cairo—and immediately left under heavy security for his home in the posh Heliopolis area. Egyptian newspaper al-Masry al-Youm has quoted his lawyer Farid el-Deeb as saying that Mubarak had a relaxed breakfast with wife Suzanne and their two sons Alaa and Gamal.

The 88-year-old leader had always maintained that he was in no way responsible for the death of nearly 900 protesters during the 25 January 25 to February 11 uprising in 2011. He had been sentenced to life, but an appeals court later had dismissed charges against him.

Technically, there has been no one directly held responsible for the deaths and, according to experts, nor will any one be. The deaths will have been for nothing. The expert, quoted in the media, says that for all practical purposes Egypt has remained in the grips of the military since 1952. That was when Egypt’s first president Gamal Abdel Nasser took over power, overthrowing King Farouk in what can be called the first Egyptian Revolution.

Anwar Sadat, who can be called the real builder of modern Egypt, was a confidante of Nasser, and became his vice-president as the new junta took control. Sadat was never too far away from the military, which always had a say in matters of policy.

When Sadat was assassinated in 1981, openly during a military parade in Cairo, Mubarak was at his side, and narrowly escaped the bullets. He was inducted into the presidency, with senior leaders expecting him to be a puppet president who does their bidding. Mubarak was, anyway, not expected to last long in the position.

The military believed it too, but later joined hands with Mubarak in steering the country, and Mubarak lasted a little under 30 years in his position with the tacit support from the military and, of course, the West.

The Sadat-Mubarak period has been the most colourful and, according to some, the most politically romantic in Middle East politics.

Sadat was a visionary. Despite the overarching presence of the military, he led the country from relative insignificance to a politically prominent position the world. In the 11 years that he led Egypt (he became president in 1970), he not only set up another multi-party system of democracy, but also opened up the country’s economy in what was called his Infitah economic policy.

Those were his wise development agendas, while on the populist side his dealings with old enemy Israel were incredibly impressive. As a start, he gave his Arab reply to Israel’s 1967 Six-Day War through his 1973 Yom Kippur War in which he regained Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. That sealed the hearts of the people of not just Egypt, but of all the Arab world.

IN MARKED CONTRAST: Muhammad Anwar el-Sadat, the visionary president who put Egypt on the path of peace and progress, was assassinated in 1981

IN MARKED CONTRAST: Muhammad Anwar el-Sadat, the visionary president who put Egypt on the path of peace and progress, was assassinated in 1981

And then he did a bit for himself as well. He negotiated the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty that won him and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin the Nobel Peace Prize in 1978. It might also have sown the seed of his own destruction.

Following in the footsteps of a person like Sadat wasn’t easy for Mubarak. He survived no less than six assassination attempts. But he again managed to dodge the assassins’ bullets.

Mubarak’s hold on the throne was primarily because of his proximity to the West, especially the US, a shift in policy from being close to the then USSR. The US, of course, decided to overlook all of Mubarak’s indiscretions, installing him as virtually a dictator and a key ally in the Arab world.

He would have faced the same fate as Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi, but he chose to keep his allies close in every move he made. It has been said that even during the Arab Spring uprising, when social media for the first time carried live pictures around the world,  Mubarak was well ensconced within his Western allies’ security.

The difference between Mubarak and Sadat would be in their relation with the masses. Human rights abuse has been rampant in Egypt in the years that followed the Arab Spring movement. Even as Mubarak enjoyed a lavish and comfortable breakfast with his family, there were “thousands… still languish[ing] in horrific prison conditions”, which was how Harriet McCulloch, deputy director of human rights organisation Reprieve, described ground realities to Al Jazeera. “Many face the death penalty on charges relating to protests, in mass trials that make a mockery of due process.”

Mubarak is the last president wowed by the West. The western relationship with the Middle East had undergone a sea change during President Barack Obama’s regime, with focus shifting to Syria, where the Muslim Brotherhood was fooling people, mingling with the rebels against President Bashar al-Assad. Obama was stopped in the nick of time from sending support strikes for the “rebels”, because that would have been technically helping the Brotherhood’s agenda. The Brotherhood has been considered a terrorist right wing organisation.

That the Muslim Brotherhood has its roots in Egypt is no secret. With the Saudi-UAE axis against the Brotherhood presenting a strong force, the West was more inclined to back that group, with Egypt’s interests left in its wake.

There seems to have been no special change in this approach in the Donald Trump era, though no clear policy consensus has emerged from this befuddled administration, more inward looking than ever before. That, sort of, leaves Egypt in the lurch.

The military junta in Egypt cannot survive in isolation, quickly becoming a footnote in the overall Arab picture. The dominance it had during Sadat’s regime has eroded and the only secure link that the country still has with the West is through one Hosni Mubarak.

Mubarak’s release from prison, therefore, should not surprise anybody. It would be unwise for the military junta to carry out policy decisions against the wishes of its western allies, and Mubarak is a person who still wields immense clout in regions that matter.

Egypt’s economy has hit a plateau, with his humongous tourism industry having dipped dangerously. Its exports are in very bad shape and domestic consumption cannot be pushed without further outside incentives.

The sins of the uprising will now vest with the commoners still behind bars. Those few days of freedom have resulted in many more years of subjugation. One has to see if the West can do a double deal of getting those unfortunate souls released from jail.

That, probably, would be Mubarak’s only gift to Egypt.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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Pakistan faces domestic backlash after India secures lower tariffs in US trade deal

India’s US trade agreement has sparked criticism in Pakistan after Islamabad ended up with higher tariffs despite sustained outreach to Washington.

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PM Shehbaz Sharif

India’s recently concluded trade agreement with the United States has triggered strong domestic criticism in Pakistan, where opposition leaders, journalists and commentators are questioning Islamabad’s diplomatic strategy after the country ended up with higher tariffs than India.

Under the agreement announced on February 2, US tariffs on Indian exports have been set at 18 per cent, while Pakistani goods will face a 19 per cent rate. The outcome has drawn sharp reactions in Pakistan, especially given what critics describe as sustained efforts by its leadership to engage Washington in recent months.

New Delhi, by contrast, is widely seen as having resisted pressure from US President Donald Trump and negotiated from a position of economic leverage rather than personal diplomacy.

Social media reactions highlight public anger

Following the announcement, Trump shared images related to India, including India Gate and a magazine cover featuring Prime Minister Narendra Modi alongside himself, before confirming the revised tariff rate for Indian goods. The optics did not go unnoticed in Pakistan, where social media users questioned why India secured better terms without overt displays of political deference.

One widely circulated post by Pakistan-based X user Umar Ali used sharp language and imagery to criticise Pakistan’s approach, reflecting growing frustration among sections of the public over what they see as an unequal outcome despite extensive outreach efforts.

Opposition leaders question foreign policy approach

Former Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf minister Hammad Azhar described the outcome as a failure of strategy rather than circumstance. He argued that modern foreign policy depends on economic strength, market access and tariffs, not symbolic gestures or personal relationships, pointing to India’s recent trade agreements with both the US and the European Union as examples.

Other opposition figures echoed similar views, saying India negotiated with “strategic autonomy” while Pakistan relied too heavily on personal engagement with US leadership.

Journalists warn of economic consequences

Journalists in Pakistan also weighed in, warning that the tariff decision could deepen the country’s existing economic challenges. Concerns were raised about declining exports, falling foreign investment and reduced bargaining power on the global stage.

Commentator Imran Riaz Khan criticised what he termed a failed lobbying strategy, arguing that symbolic gestures cannot replace economic leverage in international negotiations. Digital creator Wajahat Khan similarly framed the outcome as a reflection of unequal negotiating positions, stating that India approached the talks as a partner, while Pakistan did not.

India’s trade deals expected to boost exports

India’s back-to-back trade agreements with the European Union and the United States are expected to provide a significant boost to exports. Estimates suggest these deals could add up to $150 billion in exports over the next decade, strengthening India’s economic standing and reinforcing its negotiating position in future global trade talks.

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New Delhi free to buy oil from any source, Russia says amid US deal claims

Russia has said India is free to purchase oil from any country, dismissing claims that New Delhi has agreed to stop buying Russian crude under a US trade deal.

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New Delhi free to buy oil from any source, Russia says amid US deal claims

Russia has said that India is free to purchase crude oil from any country, responding to claims by US President Donald Trump that New Delhi has agreed to stop buying Russian oil as part of a recent trade deal with Washington.

The Kremlin said Russia is not India’s only energy supplier and noted that India has long sourced crude oil from multiple countries. It added that there is nothing new in India’s efforts to diversify its oil imports.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that energy experts are well aware that India purchases oil and petroleum products from various global suppliers. He added that Moscow does not see any change in India’s approach to sourcing crude.

No official word from India on halting imports

A day earlier, Peskov said Russia has not received any official statement from India regarding the cessation of Russian oil purchases. Russia’s Foreign Ministry echoed the view, saying the hydrocarbon trade between the two countries remains mutually beneficial.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said India’s purchase of Russian hydrocarbons contributes to stability in the global energy market and that Moscow remains ready to continue close cooperation with New Delhi in the energy sector.

Russian media also noted that, unlike the US president, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not made any public statement indicating an agreement to stop Russian oil imports.

India’s oil imports from Russia

India has continued to import Russian crude even after the US imposed tariffs on Indian goods. According to global trade data provider Kpler, India has been importing around 1.5 million barrels of Russian crude per day, making it the second-largest buyer of Russian oil and accounting for more than one-third of India’s total crude imports.

India buys about 88 per cent of its crude oil needs from overseas, with roughly one-third sourced from Russia. At its peak, imports from Russia crossed 2 million barrels per day, before falling to around 1.3 million barrels per day in December. The volume is expected to remain broadly stable in the near term.

However, imports declined further to about 1.1 million barrels per day in the first three weeks of January following higher tariffs imposed by the US, including levies linked to purchases of Russian energy.

Complete switch unlikely, experts say

Energy experts believe Indian refiners cannot fully replace Russian crude with American oil. Igor Yushkov of the National Energy Security Fund said US shale oil is lighter in grade, while Russian Urals crude is heavier and contains more sulphur.

He explained that replacing Russian oil would require blending different grades, increasing costs for refiners. He added that the US is unlikely to be able to supply the volume currently exported by Russia to India.

Yushkov also recalled that when Russia redirected its oil exports from Western markets to India in 2022, it reduced production by about one million barrels per day, contributing to a sharp rise in global oil prices and record fuel prices in the US.

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Moscow says no word from India on stopping Russian oil purchases

Russia says it has received no confirmation from India on stopping Russian oil purchases, despite Donald Trump’s claim that the move was part of a new India-US trade deal.

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Vladimir Putin

The Kremlin on Tuesday said it has not received any official communication from India regarding a halt in Russian oil purchases, following claims by US President Donald Trump that New Delhi had agreed to stop buying Russian crude as part of a trade agreement with Washington.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Moscow had not heard any confirmation from Indian authorities on the matter.

“So far, we haven’t heard any statements from New Delhi on this matter,” Peskov said, responding to Trump’s remarks linking reduced US tariffs on Indian goods to an alleged commitment by India to end Russian oil imports.

Russia stresses importance of ties with India

Peskov said Russia respects bilateral relations between India and the United States but underlined the strategic importance of ties between Moscow and New Delhi.

“We respect bilateral US-Indian relations,” he said, adding that Russia places equal importance on its strategic partnership with India.
“This is the most important thing for us, and we intend to further develop our bilateral relations with Delhi.”

What Trump claimed

Trump announced the India-US trade deal on Monday, stating that tariffs on Indian goods had been reduced from 50 per cent to 18 per cent. He claimed the reduction was linked to India agreeing to stop purchasing Russian oil.

According to Trump, India would instead buy more oil from the United States and potentially from Venezuela. He also suggested that the move would help bring an end to the war in Ukraine.

“He agreed to stop buying Russian oil and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela,” Trump said, referring to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

India’s reliance on Russian crude

India has emerged as one of the largest buyers of Russian crude since the start of the Ukraine conflict. It currently imports around 1.5 million barrels of Russian oil per day, accounting for more than one-third of its total oil imports, according to global trade data.

India is the second-largest purchaser of Russian crude globally. Even after earlier US tariff measures on Indian goods, New Delhi continued its Russian oil imports, citing energy security concerns.

The Indian government has consistently maintained that securing affordable energy supplies is critical, given the country’s heavy dependence on oil imports.

Shift in energy ties after Ukraine war

Historically, India’s relationship with Russia was centred more on defence cooperation than energy trade, with Russia supplying a majority of India’s military equipment while contributing only a small share of its oil imports.

After the invasion of Ukraine, India significantly increased purchases of discounted Russian oil. The move helped India boost energy supplies while providing Russia with much-needed revenue amid Western sanctions.

As recently as December 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin said during a visit to New Delhi that Moscow was ready to ensure uninterrupted fuel supplies to India despite pressure from the United States.

Earlier US push for Indian energy imports

Trump had earlier said, following a meeting with Prime Minister Modi in February last year, that India would begin buying more American oil and natural gas. However, those discussions did not lead to a major shift in India’s energy sourcing.

Subsequent US tariff measures also failed to significantly alter India’s stance on Russian oil imports.

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