In view of unlocking in various states after strict restrictions, AIIMS Chief Dr. Randeep Guleria on Saturday warned that India is certain to face the inevitable third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in the next six to eight weeks.
In an interview with NDTV, Dr Guleria said, as we have started unlocking, there is again a lack of Covid-appropriate behaviour. We don’t seem to have learnt from what happened between the first and the second wave. Again crowds are building up, people are gathering.
It will take some time for the number of cases to start rising at the national level. Third-wave is inevitable and it could hit the country within the next six to eight weeks, maybe a little longer. It all depends on how we go ahead in terms of Covid-appropriate behaviour and preventing crowds, he added.
Highlighting the importance of vaccination, Dr. Guleria said the country’s main challenge is vaccinating a huge population and the increase in dose gaps for Covishield may not be a bad approach to provide protection to cover more people. A new wave can usually take up to three months but it can also take much less time, depending on various factors. Apart from Covid-appropriate behaviour, we need to ensure strict surveillance. Last time, we saw a new variant – which came from outside and developed here which led to a huge surge in the number of cases. We know the virus will continue to mutate. Aggressive surveillance in hotspots is required, he said.
Several states have begun reopening after lengthy lockdowns over the second wave. Dr. Guleria suggested that local-level lockdowns in any part of the country, which sees a rise in positivity rate beyond 5%, should be imposed. He underlined that people are vulnerable unless they are vaccinated. He also stressed that testing, tracking, and treating should be the focus in hotspots. We have to factor in human behaviour while unlocking, which needs to be done in a graded manner, he said.
While talking about the new Delta-plus variant, which has evolved from the Delta variant of Covid-19, he suggested that a new frontier will have to be developed in India’s fight against Covid to further study the mutation of the virus. During the first wave (in India), the virus was not spreading that rapidly, all that changed during the second wave, and the virus became much more infectious. Now the Delta variant that’s spreading is much more infectious. Faster spread is likely, he added.
The AIIMS chief further suggested that the strategy should be multi-pronged and we have to make sure fresh cases don’t rise while asserting that when there is a huge increase in the number of cases, shortage of hospital beds follows. Any healthcare system globally will tend to collapse with the unprecedented rise in infections.
Dr. Guleria wondered if India needed to reconsider its 12-16 week gap decision between two doses of Covishied, a vaccine the country is largely dependent on. Nothing is written in stone. We will have to look at new strategies. But we need to have strong data to make that decision, said the AIIMS chief, suggesting that the decision should be driven by science and not the shortage of doses.
Pointing out the UK’s one-shot strategy for AstraZeneca and Pfizer, Dr. Guleria said the one-shot strategy may not be a bad strategy as it can give protection to a larger number of people.