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Is Taliban going to take over Kabul in 90 days? Here’s what US Intelligence says

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Taliban

In a latest development, the Taliban has captured police headquarters on August 12 in the capital of Afghanistan.  A U.S. intelligence official told Reuters that the Taliban fighters are likely to capture Afghanistan’s capital in 30 days and could take it over in around 90 days.

The official who wanted to remain anonymous said that Kabul could only stand because the US forces are there and now that the Taliban want them to leave they are trying everything to make sure of it so that the Taliban could rapidly capture the capital.

The official further said that however, this is not the ultimate conclusion and there is a chance that Afghan forces could reverse their take as they are likely to put more resistance into it.

According to a senior EU official, the Islamists have now firm control over 65 per cent of Afghanistan and have further threatened that they will take over eleven provincial capitals.  Earlier, Faizabad, the province of Badakshan was the eighth province to be captured by the Taliban.

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The official was also quoted saying that there is a fear that the Taliban might enter the diplomatic quarter as suicide bombers to attack, scare, and to make sure that the U.S. leaves as soon as possible.

According to an official report by United Nation, around 1,000 civilians had been killed in the last month. On the other hand, the report of the Red Cross claims that since August 1, around 4,042 wounded people were provided with treatment at fifteen health facilities in Afghanistan.

However, the Taliban has refuted all the claims of killing the civilians and said that there should be an independent investigation.

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Trump calls PM Modi friend, says had very good conversation amid West Asia tensions

Trump described PM Modi as a friend after a 40-minute call focusing on Iran tensions, trade and strategic ties.

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Donald Trump statement

US President Donald Trump described Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a “friend” and said the two leaders had a “very good conversation” during a recent phone call held amid rising tensions in West Asia.

The call, which lasted around 40 minutes, comes shortly after developments in the ongoing Iran-related conflict and diplomatic efforts in the region. During the conversation, both leaders discussed key issues including regional security, trade, and bilateral cooperation.

The interaction marks one of the first high-level engagements between the two leaders following recent ceasefire-related developments involving the United States and Iran. The evolving situation in West Asia, including concerns around stability and global energy routes, was a significant focus of the discussion.

Officials indicated that the leaders also reviewed progress in India-US ties and reiterated their commitment to strengthening the strategic partnership across multiple sectors.

The phone call reflects continued coordination between New Delhi and Washington as geopolitical tensions persist in the Middle East, with both sides maintaining close communication on global and regional issues.

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Israel-Lebanon ceasefire to begin within hours as Trump announces 10-day truce

Israel and Lebanon may begin a 10-day ceasefire within hours after a proposal announced by Donald Trump amid ongoing tensions.

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Donald Trump

A temporary halt in hostilities between Israel and Lebanon is expected to begin within hours after US President Donald Trump announced a proposed 10-day ceasefire between the two sides, amid ongoing tensions in the region.

According to his statement, the ceasefire is likely to take effect around 5 p.m. Eastern Time, although independent confirmation from both sides is still awaited.

The development follows discussions involving Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, with mediation efforts led by the United States.

Officials indicated that the proposed truce is aimed at creating a limited window to reduce violence and potentially pave the way for broader diplomatic engagement. The situation along the Israel-Lebanon border has remained tense in recent weeks, with escalation linked to the activities of Hezbollah.

Diplomatic efforts have intensified in recent days, with discussions facilitated by the United States, including the involvement of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. However, details of the agreement and the extent of coordination between the parties remain unclear.

The situation remains fluid, and the success of the ceasefire will depend on adherence by all sides involved. The conflict has already led to significant humanitarian and geopolitical consequences, including displacement and disruption in affected areas.

While the proposed ceasefire is being seen as an important step toward de-escalation, broader negotiations involving regional stakeholders are expected to be necessary for any lasting resolution.

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US ends oil sanctions waiver for Iran and Russia, impact likely on India’s energy imports

The US decision to end the Iran and Russia oil waiver may impact India’s oil imports, fuel prices and global energy markets.

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US oil tanker

The United States has decided not to extend a temporary sanctions waiver that allowed limited trade in Iranian and Russian oil, marking a shift towards stricter enforcement of economic restrictions.

The waiver, introduced in March 2026, had permitted the sale of oil already loaded on ships to stabilise global supply during heightened geopolitical tensions. However, it is now set to expire around mid-April without renewal.

US officials have indicated that the move is part of a broader strategy to increase pressure on both Iran and Russia amid ongoing conflicts and geopolitical tensions.

What the waiver did and why it mattered

The short-term waiver allowed millions of barrels of oil—estimated at around 140 million barrels—to enter global markets, helping ease supply shortages and prevent sharp price spikes.

It also enabled countries like India to purchase discounted crude oil from Russia and resume limited imports from Iran after years of restrictions.

Impact on India

India, one of the world’s largest oil importers, is expected to feel the impact of the decision in several ways:

  • Reduced access to discounted oil
    India had been buying cheaper Russian crude and recently resumed Iranian imports under the waiver. Its end may limit these options.
  • Potential rise in fuel costs
    With fewer discounted supplies available, India may need to rely more on costlier sources, which could increase domestic fuel prices.
  • Supply diversification pressure
    India may need to explore alternative suppliers in the Middle East, Africa, or the US to maintain energy security.
  • Geopolitical balancing challenge
    The move adds pressure on India to align with US sanctions while managing its own economic interests.

Global energy market concerns

The end of the waiver comes at a time when global oil markets are already under stress due to conflict in West Asia and disruptions in key routes like the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysts warn that tightening sanctions could:

  • Reduce global oil supply
  • Increase price volatility
  • Intensify competition among major buyers like India and China

Bigger picture

The US decision reflects a broader shift from temporary relief measures to stricter enforcement of sanctions, even if it risks tightening global energy markets.

For India, the development highlights a recurring challenge—balancing affordable energy access with geopolitical realities.

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